The Pending Home Sales Report Tells No Lies - 11/30/10 08:38 AM
Pending home sales appear to be testing a new market bottom, as the rate of decline in homes under contract has crawled to a stop. This is very good news, as we cannot expect future home sales to rise if new sales contracts are on the decline.
We measure these new sales contracts, which the industry calls “pending home sales,” in order to get a picture of the future of closed home sales (typically 2 months into the future. By tracking contracts, these future closings are follow a consistent pattern.

In the real estate graph above, we observe that the … (5 comments)

Closed Home Sales Graph Shows Post Stimulus Collapse - 11/30/10 08:33 AM
Home sales are falling, just as we predicted each time we tracked the pending home sales information from the Tallahassee Board of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service. We knew if pending sales were falling, then closed home sales had to follow suit.
Closed Home Sales Decline In Tallahassee Closed home sales, tracked on a daily basis in the Tallahassee MLS, have declined steadily since the end of the Homebuyer Tax Credit (where closed home sales were pretty much completed by June 30, 2010.

The “market bottom” that we observed in August 2009 is still holding, but we have every indication to … (0 comments)

What Is Your Home Sales Success Rate? - 11/30/10 08:28 AM
Home Sellers are finding tougher market conditions as the home sales failure rate continues to climb towards 60%. What this means is that over the past 365 days, roughly 40% of the homes that were listed actually sold, while 60% failed to sell! Certainly not what home sellers were thinking when they listed.

In the real estate graph above, the green area shows the percentage of home sellers who were successful, while the red area shows the percentage of sellers who failed. As the red area continues to expand, don’t be surprised if we head back to the 30% success … (2 comments)

Resales Must Compete With Active New Construction Homes - 11/30/10 07:51 AM
Southwood home sales are reporting strong unit sales, though with 53% of the sales reported are new home construction, it might not be such good news if you already own a home in Southwood. You see, just like everywhere else in Tallahassee, the existing homes for sale in Southwood have too much competition and prices are falling.
Subscribers to the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter previously received this graph showing the make-up of home sales in Southwood. It shows the homes sold in 2010 broken down into two groups, new home sales versus existing home sales.

What this graph reports is … (14 comments)

Golden Eagle Home Sales Improve - 11/29/10 07:28 AM
 
Golden Eagle Plantation has been reviewed on this site as much or more than any other Tallahassee neighborhood. It is a solid barometer for how upper end homes are doing in Tallahassee and with me living in the neighborhood, the information that I review is far more than just data. Also, I got my start in real estate selling lots in Golden Eagle Plantation in 1991.
Note: Today is Danny Manausa‘s Birthday, so if you happen to see him, wish him a happy birthday!
Our recent reviews of the Buckhead Neighborhood and Bull Run Neighborhood were published over the holidays, … (6 comments)

Does Bull Run Defy The Current Market? - 11/26/10 11:02 AM
Bull Run home sales have boomed over the past five years, as did many of the “boom” neighborhoods in Tallahassee. Located in a great northeast location, these executive homes have a lot to offer for many Tallahassee families.
But this subdivision was “born” during the boom, so this brings on more challenges than most Tallahassee neighborhoods have to face. Bull Run home sales only commenced in 2005, so even as we face the toughest real estate market of our lives, these property owners will also have to deal with normal movement cycles.
Bull Run Home Sales When we look at the … (2 comments)

Buckhead In Tallahassee - Stronger Than Many - 11/25/10 12:16 PM
Buckhead home sales have weathered the market a little better than most neighborhoods in Tallahassee. With values down 26.4% since the peak of the market, valuations have dropped similarly to the rest of the Tallahassee housing market. But unit sales today are very much consistent with the average number of sales for the past 15 years, with only marginally fewer sales.
Considering the rest of the market has seen unit sales drop significantly higher, I would say that Buckhead home sales have proven this high-end Tallahassee neighborhood to be a “better than the market” place to own a home for the … (0 comments)

Why House Prices Must Continue To Fall - 11/24/10 08:44 AM
Unfortunately, house prices will continue to fall for quite some time. The imbalance between housing supply and demand can only be cured by an increase in the number of people wanting to live in Tallahassee houses, not by shifting people from the leasing side of the market to the owning side of the market.

When I read national real estate reports talk about the real estate recovery hinging on interest rates, tax incentives,  and even on consumer confidence, I ask myself …

Where Are These Buyers Living Right Now?
I mean after all, we have a simple problem … (5 comments)

Price Your Home To Sell - 11/23/10 08:28 AM
Pricing a home to sell has always required a balance between science (looking at comparable sales and current competition) and art (determining the initial market positioning and key marketing features), but today it is more important than ever. With roughly 60% of all MLS-listed homes failing to sell over the past 365 days, we know how important every part of our progressive marketing program is going to be for the home seller.
Yesterday’s blog post about defining “Shadow Inventory” in real estate generated quite a few emails and questions, but it also prompted a response from our recently retired Tallahassee real … (4 comments)

What Is Your Shadow Inventory Definition? - 11/22/10 09:36 AM
Shadow Inventory was the hot topic for Inman News this morning. They reviewed a report by CoreLogic which showed the inventory of “not on the market” homes that need to be sold is growing at a disheartening pace, stating demand as the primary culprit:
Weak demand for housing is “significantly increasing the risk of further price declines in the housing market,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Mark Fleming — a problem that’s exacerbated “by a significant and growing shadow inventory that is likely to persist for some time” because of the length of time it takes loan servicers to liquidate properties.
What … (2 comments)

Distressed Properties Not Just A Passing Thought - 11/19/10 06:26 AM
With so much buzz about distressed properties for sale, I like to pay close attention to the Lis Pendens filings in Tallahassee. By monitoring this “first step” of the foreclosure process, we can get a feel for the volume of distressed properties likely to show up in the Tallahassee real estate market.
This is obviously not just a “passing thought” for us at CENTURY 21 First Realty, as you will see a foreclosures tab in our navigation bar on our Tallahassee Real Estate Web Site. We provide a weekly summary of lis pendens filings and a monthly and quarterly review of … (2 comments)

Lots For Sale In Tallahassee - 11/18/10 06:24 AM
If you are a long time reader of the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog, then you know there is lots for sale in Tallahassee (meaning a lot of homes for sale in Tallahassee). But if you have actually ever wanted to have a custom built home, you should know that there are also lots for sale in Tallahassee! The average price for a lot in Tallahassee has dropped from over $110,000 to $45,000.

While I am a big advocate for buying an existing home rather than building due to the fact that most homes are now selling for less than it … (0 comments)

Are You Using Active Internet Marketing? - 11/17/10 06:26 AM

There really is a huge difference between the two different types of plans for home selling on the internet. It has taken me three years to complete the evolution from where I was, based in traditional realty methodologies, to now being a much more active marketer on the internet.
You see, the two home selling methods are diametrically opposed, but very simple to understand.
Passive Internet Marketing occurs when a real estate company starts the evolutionary process from traditional methods to the use of the internet. “Ads” are placed on the world wide web in the hopes that consumers will … (11 comments)

Some Banks "Get It" - 11/16/10 08:30 AM
I was talking with a buddy of mine today about short sales in Tallahassee, specifically about what it is like dealing with local banks and national lenders in the sale of a home that is sold "short." Distressed properties are becoming a larger percentage of homes sold now, and it appears that most banks "get it" and are working to push the market through this difficult phase.
But sadly, not all banks really "get it." They believe that if they keep procrastinating, then the market will improve and their losses will be reduced. But this is not going to be the … (2 comments)

Excellent REALTOR Retires - 11/15/10 09:24 AM
 
 
This article is long overdue, so my tribute to Tallahassee REALTOR Bill Peck might not be timely, but it is very much sincere. Bill & Bonnie Peck have moved to Alabama to rejoin family members, but I can tell you they left behind a real estate family in Tallahassee that will miss them greatly.
Just a reminder, the most recent Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter went out today. You can subscribe to the newsletter and have it delivered each month to your email inbox, or you can just check out the past editions in our newsletter archives.
Bill Peck has … (4 comments)

HUMONGOUS November Housing Report - 11/11/10 10:40 AM
 
Every month when the new data is posted for the previous month, I like to assemble a huge housing report which provides a visual representation of the Tallahassee housing market. Our end of month data was received yesterday so today we will show the beginning of our real estate report for November. By observing charts and graphs with analysis, even somebody who rarely tracks the real estate market can understand what is occurring now and what is likely in store for the next few months.
The November real estate report shows signs that our earlier forecasts were spot-on, and that … (4 comments)

Celebrate Veterans Day Rainers! - 11/10/10 09:07 AM
Tomorrow, Veterans Day in Tallahassee will be observed with the closing of schools, the CENTURY 21 real estate office, and many places of work, so I thought I would take the opportunity to remind everybody about the importance of this day of remembrance.

In November 1919, President Wilson proclaimed November 11 as the first commemoration of Armistice Day. This new holiday was to remember the end of the “War To End All Wars” where a cease-fire had been initiated on November 11, 1918,  “Armistice Day”, and served to honor all soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines, both past and present, who … (2 comments)

You Must Do A Google Search For Your Real Estate Agent - 11/09/10 08:47 AM
 

Are you finding that your “know it all” friend has been replaced by Google Search? The google search engine (www.google.com) is not even as old as my web site, but it has the answer to everything. And that includes everything real estate as well. If you are planning to sell a home, you better consult this know-it-all about who dominates the google search engine for Tallahassee Real Estate (or wherever you may live).
Last week’s blog on Recognizing The Need For A Buyer’s Agent provided our readers with a short list of skills that a Buyer’s Agent should possess … (8 comments)

Why We Must Monitor Supply And Demand In Real Estate - 11/08/10 09:25 AM
Real estate supply and demand seems to be ignored when many “real estate professionals” provide a forecast for the housing market. While I have not studied the US housing market data as much as I have the Tallahassee real estate market, it seems to me that the single most important fact about our current housing crisis is being ignored.
The National Association of REALTORS® just released it’s 2010 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers and it is loaded with a lot of good information. But the interpretation of the survey by NAR appears to be missing something … (4 comments)

How To Find A Buyer's Agent - 11/05/10 09:51 AM
I was recently in communication with somebody looking to buy a home in Tallahassee when I was pleasantly surprised by a request for a buyer’s agent. Having been in the real estate business for 20 years, I can count on one hand the times that I have received the specific request for somebody who specializes working with home buyers.
Most real estate professionals do not really specialize in working with “just buyers” or “just sellers,” though don’t be surprised to hear somebody telling you they do. The ability to take a home buyer through all the hurdles that will fall in … (1 comments)

Two Tips For Pricing A Home To Sell - 11/04/10 09:08 AM

Too many homeowners do not know how to price their home to sell, so they are languishing on the market with no conceivable chance of being sold. The art and the science of home valuation is not nearly as tough as it seems, the key is understanding which trends to monitor and how to determine the strength of both the supply and demand for similar homes.
Home valuation is all about competition. We all love our homes and we all have a tendency to believe that our own personal homes are special, and to an extent, all of them are … (7 comments)

Why Property Values Must Continue To Fall (For Now) - 11/03/10 09:05 AM
We often provide opinions on property values in order to help home owners determine whether or not they are going to attempt to sell their home.  Most homeowners are disappointed when they find out how far their property has fallen in value, but our clients have been happy to know the truth so that they were able to make an informed decision.
Having a true understanding of the current and near future housing trends is the key to being able to sell a home in a very difficult real estate market. Keeping an eye on what has happened recently is only … (5 comments)

Distressed Properties Consuming Market Share - 11/02/10 10:37 AM
I have written quite a bit about distressed properties in Tallahassee and equally as much about special financing opportunities in the housing market. These two separate types of opportunities represent the impetus of change for our housing market recovery, so I like to track them very closely.
After compiling the data for the first nine months of 2009, I broke out a special report to see the impact that both special financing homes and distressed properties were having on the Tallahassee housing market. Here is the question I wanted to answer:
Which types of homes are selling faster?
Ones that offer … (2 comments)

Where Blog Readers Come From - 11/01/10 07:43 AM
I was reading through this weekend’s reader feedback and found a neat message from overseas. Often, it is reader feedback that guides the choice of topics for each day’s blog article, and “JL” from France wrote the following message which made me think about where our readers originate:
I work for a Century 21 in France and I was blown away by how much more you do for your clients.  We do ads and that is it!  The French are just getting into Facebook but on the actual C21 website there is no possibility of sharing the image or ad – … (9 comments)

 
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Joe Manausa - Tallahassee Real Estate

Tallahassee, FL

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Century 21 Manausa and Associates

Address: 1140 Capital Circle SE #12A, Tallahassee, FL, 32301

Office Phone: (850) 386-2001

Cell Phone: (850) 508-1544

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