Joe's Blog

Is the housing market near the bottom? Somebody thinks so!

2008-02-21T15:32:32Z

In yesterday's press release, The Conference Board says that "the correction in the housing market is nearly over." This is the first national, non-real estate, non-mortgage group to make this declaration. The Conference Board is best known for the Consumer Confidence Index and the Leading Economic Indicators. Here is a more detailed segment:

"The housing market correction is about over, says Fosler. Given the lags in the impact of the housing sector on the economy, even at current activity levels, housing will likely subtract about 0.4 percentage points from 2008 growth. Housing affordability is beginning to improve, and with the recent interest rate cuts and home price declines, it should improve further and limit the downside risk. January and February are not big months for housing, but rising affordability bodes well for the spring selling season.

Demographic trends also favor housing. The rise in households is increasingly outpacing the rise in permits, so the ratio is rising over time and is reaching a point normally associated with recovery in housing activity. The long housing boom of the past 15 years has taken the home ownership rate up from 64 percent to a peak of 69 percent in 2004, reflecting an intrinsic demand for housing. All of this adds up to good structural demand for housing if the credit markets and lending institutions can ease the credit flow."

The complete press release can be found here.

Make it a great day1

Joe Patterson

Change versus experience

2008-02-06T21:41:05Z

Hello all,

I resisted writing on politics, but this is one special election this year. There are many issues facing our country and the next President. I like watching the process (the politics get irritating at times), but there is one thing I don't understand - what qualifies as experience? This has become Hillary Clinton's rallying cry. I found it puzzling that the media has bought into this argument without asking for details. The only elected office she has held has been a United Stated Senator for 7 years. If experience counts so much, Bill Richardson or Dennis Kucinich should be the nominee. Is she talking about life experience? Then the oldest person should be the nominee. Slate magazine has there own take on this here.

And what about change? Mrs. Clinton would be the first woman president and Barrack Obama would be the first African-American president. Either would bring a change of direction for our country. Both champion a variety of liberal ideas and programs. But John McCain would be a change from President Bush (I really don't think they like each other). How much change do we want and what kind of change?

Whoever you support and vote for, study their ideas and views. Get past the campaign promises and rhetoric. How are they going to create jobs? What are they going to do about global warming? What should they do about the mortgage mess? How much is all this going to cost? Campaign slogans are nice, but as they say the devil's in the details.

Joe

Relay for Life

2008-02-06T13:02:59Z

Hello again,

Many of us have been directly affected by cancer (my dad died of pancreatic cancer in 1985) or we know of someone who has. Well, my good friend Alan Russell is doing something about it. He has been involved with Relay for Life for years. If you would like to be involved, there is probably a Relay for Life event in your area. If you would like to make a donation, please see below. Thank you.

Joe Patterson

Dear Family and Friends,

I've decided to take action against cancer by participating in the American Cancer Society Relay For Life® event right here in my community. Relay For Life® is about celebration, remembrance, and hope. By participating, I am honoring cancer survivors, paying tribute to the lives we've lost to the disease, and raising money to help fight it.

Please help support me in this important cause by making a donation. It is faster and easier than ever to support me by making a secure, tax-deductible donation online using the link below. If you would prefer, you can send your contribution to the mailing address listed below.

Whatever you can give will help - it all adds up! I greatly appreciate your support and will keep you posted on my progress.

Sincerely,

Alan Russell

To make a donation online, visit my personal page.

To send a donation, make all checks payable to: American Cancer Society
Relay For Life of Los Altos
Santa Clara County Unit

Fighting cancer can be easier than you think
Especially when you participate in the American Cancer Society Relay For Life®. Visit http://www.relayforlife.org/relay/findevent to locate an event in your community today.

Double Your Money
Many employers offer matching funds programs. Most of these programs match contributions dollar for dollar, and some will even double or triple the amount of your gift. Please inquire with your personnel/HR department to complete the paperwork required to get your gift matched. Visit our Matching Gifts page for more information.

American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network
You have the opportunity to fight back against cancer year round by joining the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network. Through issue campaigns and voter education, ACS CAN works to encourage lawmakers and candidates to support laws and policies that will help people fight cancer. You CAN take action. We CAN save lives. Join CAN today, at acscan.org/relay.

Questions? Contact Paulene West, Online Chair @ paulene@losaltosrelay.com

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The sky is not falling - home prices up in 31 states!

2008-02-04T17:52:12Z

This is an ongoing battle I have with the national news media. They say 'bad news sells' but please be more balanced.

According to First American CoreLogic, 31 states actually had price increases over the past 12 months in their latest survey which includes 7,462 zip codes and 662 counties in all 50 states. Because of the comprehensive nature of this report, the latest survey covers November 2006 - November 2007. The press release can be found here Link.

I am not trying to minimize the problems many of us face with decreasing equity, tighter underwriting guidelines and interest rate adjustments. No one benefits when a family loses their home. But it is frustrating to hear the news media bash your industry to the point where many people believe home prices are falling everywhere and 10% of all loans are in foreclosure - NOT TRUE!

As I said in an earlier post (Home Prices - what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas), Real Estate is a micro-economic phenomenon. The home prices in your neighborhood are not affected by what happens in my neighborhood (unless you live in a certain part of San Jose). As you listen/read the news, just remember that home prices are going up in many parts of the country. If they are lower where you live now than last year, take heart - mine is too ....

just hang in there.

Joe Patterson

Subprime delinquency rates are 10X as high as prime loans

2008-01-31T18:45:57Z

The news media keeps lumping prime loans and subprime loans when it reports on the housing crunch. I wish they would do a little bit of research. Prime loans are not defaulting like subprime loans. Yes, underwrwiting guidelines have tightened up (as they should have), but the default rate on prime loans has barely budged over the past 4 years while we all know that the default rate on subprime loans has skyrocketed. According to Freddie Mac, the overall delinquency rate (for prime loans) remains historically low.

Click here for the report: http://www.freddiemac.com/corporate/about/policy/policy_landscape.html.

Make it a great day!

Joe Patterson

Your Information is being bought and sold! Stop it!

2008-01-15T17:12:03Z

Your information ... a hot commodity Having your credit checked is an important and necessary step in the home buying process. But very few people realize that each time their credit is checked, the "inquiry data" that the credit bureaus (Equifax, TransUnion, Innovis or Experian) have on file have now become a commodity. This information is being sold by the credit bureaus to other lenders...and also to companies that sell and resell the same names and personal information.

That's right - the credit bureaus have found a way to increase their revenues at your expense....and without your permission. These "inquiry leads" include name, address, phone numbers (including unlisted), credit score, current debt and debt history, property information, age, gender and estimated income. They are marketing personal, confidential information to competing creditors...and making millions. Your privacy is being sold, not just once, but over and over again - legally!

The consumer credit reporting industry has provided a way to "opt out" and remove your name from these lists. You can contact them by phone at 1-888-567-8688or online at www.optoutprescreen.com. The good news is by opting-out you can make it stop right away and protect yourself from "pre-approved credit offers" arriving via mail, which is one of the leading causes of identity theft in the US.

Take your privacy back! Take five minutes right now and opt out.

By Phone: 1-888-567-8688

By Internet: http://www.optoutprescreen.com/

For free information on how to raise your credit score (really, it's free - no purchase necessary) please call me.

Make it a great day.

Joe

Home prices - what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas

2008-01-15T16:50:30Z

One of my main pet peeves in this whole real estate mess is that the news reports on 'national' real estate sales and 'national' home prices, or even 'California' real estate activity which at least is a little more accurate. Real Estate is a micro-economic phenomenon that really doesn't impact other real estate markets a little distance away. What happens to home prices in Las Vegas does not impact home prices in San Jose, let alone Morgan Hill.

It seems the strength of the local economy is a major factor in the stability of home prices. That is why Ohio and Michigan are seeing larger price declines than California, and another reason there is no 'National' real estate market. The Central Valley is taking its lumps as the weakest home market in the state, but Santa Clara County actually had a price increase in 2007 over 2006. However, the farther away from Silicon Valley a city is, we do start to see price declines - Morgan Hill's median price was down 1.5% and Gilroy's median price was down 2.6%.

What does that mean for 2008? Who knows. But think long-term and ask yourself one question: do you believe home prices will be higher or lower in 5 years? How about 10 years? Your answer should determine whether now is the right time to buy a house.

Please let me know if you have any questions. Talking is free - the information is valuable.

Make it a great day!

Joe