John 's Blog

Get Bank For Your Buck! Sensible Spending Can Reap Big Rewards!

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:01:05 -0800

What room in the home provokes more analysis, expert opinion, design and re-design, lots of thought, hesitation and which people gravitate to as if by instinctive.....the kitchen.

Since its evolutionary linkage to the cooking range and the capability of getting water, the kitchen has had more technical advances than any room in one's home.

What makes a kitchen? It comes down to taste, style, material preferences and the money one can afford.

There is an array of categories which include Contemporary, Country, Old World, Traditional and Transitional kitchen styles. Many articles have been written about each and many hours spent in trying to explain the differences between each of these types.

•· When talking of a Contemporary kitchens generally one is talks of a modern, minimalist geometric type room with horizontal lines with no molding. Materials used are stainless steel, laminate, frosted glass, concrete, linoleum, chrome, and lacquer. The main stylists of these kitchens are Italy, Germany and Scandinavians countries.

•· The Country kitchen is one that is very cheery with bright colors and lights; the cabinetry painted and glazed with decorative shelving and the room has quite a bit of molding. The Country most popular styles are French, English, Tuscan, Cottage, Farmhouse, and Garden.

•· An Old World kitchen is one of large hearths or cooking grottos and heavily stressed. It has the look of pre-17^th century Europe. Themes of this style kitchen include Tuscan, Mediterranean, Medieval, Castle, French Chateau, Italian Villa, Normandy or Cottage. Materials are usually stone floors, mosaic tiles, brick, plaster walls, pewter or copper.

•· The Traditional kitchen typically reflects the elegance of the 18^th, 19^th and 20^th century. Design styles include Victorian, Edwardian, Georgian, Federal, Regency, Italianate, Early American and Neoclassical. Generally these type kitchens have more ornate molding, cabinets and materials are often cherry, walnut, mahogany woods consisting of antique fixtures and appliances.

•· The Transitional kitchen is mixture of traditional and contemporary. Eclectic in nature there is a mixture of natural and man-made materials, finishes and textures. Bamboo flooring is often the choice for transitional kitchens and appliances are showed cased rather than hidden behind panels.

So for a room equipped with a stove, sink, refrigerator, oven, dishwasher and other appliances it is a place that takes on the taste and shape that meets your needs and monies. Not an absolute but generally monies spent in the kitchen enhance the overall value of the home.

Out With The Old; In With The New?

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 11:03:11 -0800

If you dislike reading and looking at statistical charts you may want to pass on this article present in www.venturacountyretalk.com. However if charts are not disturbing then you will get an enlightning picture of Ventura County real estate for the immediate period (2009) as well as for the last 16 years (1994 through 2009).

Charts are used extensively because more information can be presented in a limited space.

The Ventura County real estate market has been choppy over the last year due in large part to foreclosures and the reverse of that.....new buyer credit.

Words however do not tell the story. The chart below is a monthly summary or prices by month for Ventura County. From this chart one can see the ups and downs that has been experienced throughout the year. Despite the ups and downs prices for Ventura County real estate rose approximately 6% from a year ago (December 31, 2008).

For the complete article go to: http://www.venturacountyretalk.com

Getting Lets????? Maybe!

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 09:29:15 -0800

It is too early to say that the trend in real estate is up. Since March, 2009 it has been basically sideways. The October uptick may suggest that despite the local and national economic woes real estate may do its own thing.

The September, 2009 down tick may have been a hic-cup in the overall trend but it does suggest that one be cautious before reading anything into the market. It may have been a warning.

Even with the warning one would expect that with high unemployment; lack of new job creation; new taxes on the horizon both Federal and State; the increase in State tax as a loan for the next several months; lack of consumer confidence...all of these singularly and collectively will temper the real estate uptrend.

BUT as of now it looks like the market wants to get LEGS!

For complete article and tables go to www.venturacountyretalk.com

ABRACADABRA!

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 11:32:17 -0700

Today when this term is used it is hoped that something will be created out of nothing. This ancient Aramaic roots (Avrah KaDabra) means "I create as I speak".

Well over the last week the real estate market in Ventura County did an "Abracadabra" and the down trend that had been in place for two months reversed itself and start upward with some conviction I might add.

As can be noted in the table below the market had been laboring over the last two months showing significant downside build up.

For complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

Real Estate Contraction....Ventura County.

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 10:27:51 -0700

Listings continue to decrease (1932 last week; 1859 this week); sales however climbed and it is probably due to the paper work being delayed in recording sales therefore the prices which had been going down now appears to have stabilized over the last week.

The chart below summarizes the last weeks statistical numbers. However events that truly move the market are headed in the opposite direction.

The County's high unemployment of 11+% certainly is a driving force impacting the real estate market. Lack of new jobs creation is another impact source. Consumer confidence is at a low point.

The media is attempting to make things look good but individual common sense tells the general population something else.

Attempts to detract from the economy are going full bore but when push comes to shove it's the economy that most people dwell on. It's their personal economy that takes priority.

Expected is the hammer to fall.....tax increases. This has to come about and most are dreading the outcome. To be sure most middle and upper level pay scales are going to be hit hard. This in and of itself will not impact the real estate market but it most certainly will take longer for the market to start its upward acceleration.

For complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

Impact Is Starting To Take Hold.... Or Is It?

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 13:24:24 -0700

Again job creation (high paying), a decrease in unemployment are the necessary ingredients to propel the market upward.

Political double talk aside job creation and reduction of unemployment in California is taking on a monster stance. Historically tax decreases helped to right the ship faster. Today that does not appear to be tack being undertaken ..... all one hears or sees is that taxes have to increase across the board. This option simply reduces the odds of getting the economy headed upward.

As Donald Trump has stated on a number of occasions, we have to hand out pink slips to the politicians now in office. "YOUR FIRED" will set the tone and change the mindset of the people in Sacramento.

For complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

Something Doesn't Feel Right.....

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 12:27:39 -0700

After awhile statistical information being just numbers becomes mesmerizing and some common sense has to come into play.

The numbers do what numbers are supposed to do....lay out what is happening and it is up to the individual to wade through and make sense of what that happening is.

This week for some reason the numbers are saying one thing but my gut instincts are telling me something else.

The real estate market has been going up and that is GOOD news. And as expected it is going up in a saw tooth configuration. BUT it appears that we may be looking at (what the stock market would call) a bears trap. Prices have been going up but over the last several months, especially the month of July, the price increases witnessed since the beginning of the year appear to be labored.

It may well be a great to do about nothing but one should be on guard for further decreases in real estate prices. I cannot believe I said that.....after all since November, 2008 I have been stating that the market is going up. But some doubt is setting in.......again just a feeling.

Contributors to this feeling is the unemployment rate; the lack of new job development; consumer confidence is waning; federal/state/locat taxes and fees have to go up.

Yes the beige report has come out stating that the market and the economy has hit bottom.
Yes there have been reports of new building going on throughout the United States.
Yes it has been reported that home prices are going up (and they are).

BUT something doe not feel right so investors watch what you buy and where you buy. Home buyers watch what you buy and where you buy. Sellers hold fast and if you have to sell, sell because the price you get may be the best for several months. Sellers if you do not have to sell now, wait. The market will come to you.

For Ventura County:

Listings are down; sales are flat; year to year sales are up 20% and the County as a whole is a sellers market.

The beaches are the only place that continue as a buyers market and the inventory for Ventura and Oxnard beach areas is about a 10 month supply. As reflected in the table below all other areas are either neutral or seller markets

For complete article go to www.venturacountyretalk.com

More Of The Same!

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 11:20:53 -0700

New taxes (both federal, state and local) are on the horizon. I suspect that these new taxes will bein the form of "take away". Exemptions will be eliminated; possibly contributions will go by the way side; mortgage interest and real estate taxes will be reduced initially then eliminated completely; motor vehicle registration will be eliminated; and possibly the sales tax.

What are you left with. Yep......a flat tax. Slowly but surely most will be taxed on adusted gross earnings at maybe a slightly higher rate.

Child tax credits will remain as will low income tax credits but for sure most everything else will go by the way side.

The impact to real estate! Minimal. But it is exacting a toll on many people. It appears that we are at a tipping point and many people are now planning for additional changes. They sense that the direction we are going is not the right direction. People will adjust and take vengeance at election time. Politicians will not adjust. They will be out of office and the cycle starts over again with a new face.

Lobbyist have to be controlled. They are the one's now setting the agenda. Politicians just follow. Main street voters are out of the loop. That has to change.

National health care will have a significant impact on real estate. It is strange that the European countries are getting out of national health care programs and in the United States we want in. If Europe says yes we say no; if they so no we say yes. Interesting to say the least.

For complete article go to www.venturacountyretalk.com

Summer Doldrums....

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 12:48:43 -0700

Normally at this time of year people who want to buy are out in full force looking and planning to move, and if they have kids, registered in their new school. They want to get over with before school starts.

But the economy has many people concerned about jobs so the norm has changed.

Until unemployment shows signs of decreasing (which it is not); until there are more new jobs being created (which isn't the case); and the general public show strong confidence in the economy (people are perplexed and are tending to decrease spending); the real estate market will tend to go sideways with a bias to the upside.

Talk of another stimulus package if done correctly could work. What is a correct solution?

Allow zero income taxes, social security and medicare taxes for approximately 6-9 months and the economy will get legs. This will get money into the hands of the consumer and small businesses and things will start to correct itself.

For complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

Real Estate Is Starting To Sparkel To…..

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 13:49:40 -0700

We are celebrating our 4th of July and many of us witnessed the sparkles in the night sky to remind us of our Country's birthday.

As with the Country's birthday real estate is now showing signs of sparkles as well.

Not with the dazzle of what we saw in the night sky on the 4th. It is somewhat more mute in the market place but the amber's are there and when this side-way activity is complete there will a significant acceleration upward in home prices.

Items contributing to this price acceleration will include:

1. Of course there is the pent up demand that will make itself felt.

2. Cost faced by sellers to make their single family homes "green".

On the surface it would seem that sellers will have to eat this added cost. But if Economics 101 taught us anything eventually these cost will passed through to the buyer's thereby increasing prices.

How "green" green will be is any-one's guess but in California one could expect that seismic upgrades may be required; perhaps solar panels and independent electric home grids; dual-pane windows; and who knows what else the Federal and State bodies will include.

What will probably happen is what I mentioned a number of years ago....we will have a two class society.....one owning property and those who do not and cannot because of the cost.

There most certainly will be an outcry for affordable housing but the conditions being applied will go counter to what is intended.

For complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

The Elephant Is Moving.....

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 12:21:52 -0700

As noted in this blog over the last several months prices are starting to creep upward. Nothing dynamic but the prices are solidifying the base that has been in effect since November, 2008.

There will be some sideways but the worse is over. In fact it has been reported recently that appreciation in Ventura County stands at 5.8% since the beginning of the year. You will note on the chart above that one should expect an 8.7% increase for 2009. In 2010 the appreciation will increase to 17.9%.

The two things needed for the real estate market to really explode upward are new job creation and a significant decrease in unemployment (neither of will happen for a few months). Why? Taxes and added government cost to employers via health care coverage.

There needs to be another element in play before real estate gets it legs and that is consumer confidence which at this time appears to be getting positive.

For complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

Things Might Be Better Then........

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 12:20:12 -0700

Ventura County.

One word: SLOW. But prices are edging upward. Overall sales in Ventura County are 28% higher (comparing periods Jan. 1 thru June 20 for the years 2008 and 2009). Overall Ventura County is a seller's market but there are areas such as Santa Rosa Valley, Ventura and Oxnard Beaches that still remain buyer markets.

The Conejo Valley and Ojai/Oak View remain neutral while the areas of Simi Valley/Moorpark, Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Santa Paula and Fillmore are seller markets. In fact there were no recorded sales in Fillmore over the last week which I find interesting (but not unusual).

Unemployment and job creation need to come into line for the real estate market to get legs. It will go up on its own but very slowly. Many people are staying put and waiting the market out. The "squeeze effect", as I call it.

When the market gets legs, watch out.

For complete article go to: www.venturacoutyretalk.com

There Are Bigger Things To....

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 15:35:00 -0700

Every once in awhile it is time to get some perspective. This photo from MSN puts things into some context.

There are bigger things for us to see, investigate and challenge. Life here on Earth is great; out there who knows! But we will go and find out. Why? We are humans and it is in our bones (oops! our DNA) to face up to challenges.

My musing for the week. Lao-tzu who lived 2,500 years ago wrote "Every human being's essential nature is perfect and faultless, but after years of immersion in the world we easily forget our roots and take on a counterfeit nature".

For total article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

We Got What We Wished For....It Isn't Very Nice!

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 24 May 2009 13:57:18 -0700

Things are looking brighter and the market is getting stronger.

Mentioned a number of times is the jack-in-the-box scenario that is forming now.

Listings have decreased significantly over the last 18 months (from 5,250 in November 10,2007 down to 2,069 as of May 23, 2009: approximately a 50% decrease).

Sales in Ventura County have increased 32% in 2009 compared to the same comparable period of 2008.

This year there have been 2,852 sales for the period January 1 through May 23, 2009; for the same period in 2008, there were 2,161 sales.

There is a squeeze occurring. We have a commodity (homes) and there is a pent up demand for this commodity and as soon as the jack-in-the-box is opened prices will accelerate big time.

For complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

People Are Talking

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 10 May 2009 15:21:45 -0700

Article shows that the Ventura County market is doing well and the real estate forecast is upbeat especially for years after 2012. Noted are some economic issues that will not hurt real estate directly but they will impede and forestall significant single family home price increases for a period. Also the article illustrates the price breaks (by area) which has made this market what it is since the beginning of the year though May 9, 2009.

Overall the market is going to be excellent starting the last quarter of 2009. However significant unemployment and the lack of job creation will not bode well for real estate. It will not deter the upswing but it will pushed it out further. It is expected that sole proprietor-ships will pick up the slack. These will be one person operations with very few adding employees. The cost of employees would be too prohibitive for a sole proprietorship to absorb.

For the complete article go to: http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2009/05/10/people-are-talking/

Watching Grass Grow.

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 18:43:30 -0700

There is a lot of BS going on in government with deflective stories being written to turn people's attention away from our economic problems and creating bigger government.

Words uttered by any Federal or State representative should put one on guard.

What is being said is to make people feel good; what is being done will make people sorry and at a point they think there isn't anything they can do.

An example is the "rainy day set aside" proposal that California will vote on this May. Sounds good to set something aside. It makes one think that someone is taking steps to do something right. But politicians being politicians when they see "rainy day" funds they will justify taking of these funds for some other cause. There goes "rainy day" funds.

So like Social Security which was set up as a set aside fund, later when monies were needed, its money was used, replaced by notes. I suspect this "rainy day" proposal is of the same vintage. As stated earlier, politicians say things that sound good; but later is when you really recognize what they really wanted to do.

For complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

Home Valuation Code of Conduct. More Government Interferance. Just What We Need/

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 14:13:12 -0700

More BIG government; significantly more COST; and a hinderance to improving the real estate economy. That wraps up the proposed Home Valuation Code of Conduct now being proposed. So action is required by real estate professionals to prevent this regulation happening. It take YOU to do it.

Quietly this legislation has been going through Congress without much discussion and if the leaders have their way this legilation will be implemented this May 1, 2009. So time is of importance. Read the article and call Senators and Congress to stop this legislation.

For complete article go to: www.johnduffner.com

Back In The Saddle.

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 12:47:54 -0700

A review of the political and real estate gyrations for the last several months. But the real estate market is getting stronger in Ventura County and it like the rest of the Country will see a upside starting around September/October, 2009. Prices will exceed the highs witness in the mid-2000's by 50% or more.

For the complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com.

What A Difference A Year Makes/

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 14:12:39 -0800

Summary article of the latest national real estate market; tax impact of mortgage interest not being a deduction and its' impact on the real estate market; and the surprise increase in sales within Ventura County this year as compared to 2008.

For complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

Financing Condos: A Specific Lenders Requirements/

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 14:54:57 -0800

Summary of financing requirement for a condo by a specific lender. One can expect that other lenders will follow this basic requirement outline for current and near future condo financing.

To see total article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com

The Housing Package A Summary/

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 14:43:25 -0800

This is a summary article of the stimulus package and it's impact on real estate and it's intent to keep families in their home. This as everyone knows is a very expensive legislation and it is reasonable to assume that it will not be a quick cure for the real estate market. Time will tell if it works.

Go to www.venturacountyretalk.com for the complete article.

Fear Is A Great Change Motivator/

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 18:04:24 -0800

Article discusses what the stimulus package contributed to real estate. It also notes the changes announced by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae regarding investors increase buyng. Ventura County real estate is addressed noting that perhaps November, 2008 was a possible bottom for the County.

To read the full article go to www.venturacountyretalk.com

Whats Next Doc/

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 13:50:29 -0800

Commentary of Washingtons doings and its impact on the real estate market. Noted were Ventura County January, 2009 monthly sales, compared with sales of the January, 2008. Readers are directed to read the forecast for Ventura County for the year 2009 and beyond.

The Enemy Becomes An Ally. WithChange There Is Hope!

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:44:01 -0800

Summary comments of the possible turn around of the credit market and its impact on real estate and the general econom. With a new President (Obama) many hope he will resolve many if not all of our problems. Hope is hope. He he is just one person and he should be treated with respect by Congress, the media and people.

For complete article go to: http://www.venturacountyretalk.com/2009/01/19/the-enemy-becomes-an-ally-with-change-there-is-hope/

Digging In.

John Duffner (John Duffner's Real Estate Inc) — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 13:38:37 -0800

Summary commentary of bail out funding taking place in the United States and the impact to real estate. States have now entered into the fray of asking Uncle Sam for bail out funds. It is expected that individual cities and communities will not be far behind in seeking such funds.

The impact to real estate may be small. There is evidence that the bottom has been set and in general real estate Nationally as well as locally will show increases.

For complete article go to: www.venturacountyretalk.com