Prices raise for 4 months

If you listen to the same media (local and national) that I do, you might be surprised to hear that prices have actually been climbing. Most of the stories surround the existing housing crisis, Freedie Mae/Mac and very little about any good news.

For the most part, YES we do have a problem and of course we need help getting out of it but what you might not be hearing is how the inventory-to-sales has gotten better. How the median housing prices have been climbing for 4 months straight.

Here's the statement from NAR-

According to NAR statistics, the median home price has fallen from a high of $230,200 in July 2006 to a low in February 2008 at $195,600, a drop of 15%. Since February, however, it has risen steadily every month. By May the index (which will be revised on July 24) had risen to $208,600, up $13,000 and a full 6.6%. Another indicator, the mean home price (otherwise known as the average home price), has also shown strength and has risen from a low of $242,000 also in February of this year to $253,100, a rise of $11,100 or 4.5%. It, too, has risen every month since February of this year.

On my last Podcast I covered the market conditions here in Phoenix. Things have gotten better but we still have a ways to go so "Is now the time to buy?". Should you wait to see what happens? All I can say is the media is always months behind the curve so your attempts to time the market should not be dependent on the media. Feel free to call or email me for more information on specific markets and watch for my next Podcast for more information!

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate Podcast

Ok, it's time to announce my latest addition to keeping you all informed about real estate in Arizona.  I've talked about doing a podcast for a while now and have decided to go ahead and post them at http://phoenix.mypodcast.com/.

 We'll work on bringing them right into this blog in the near future but for now click the link and listen to the first ever Valley Real Estate Advisor podcast. This one talks about the real estate market in Phoenix, Arizona for the month of June. In the future I'll bring in guest speakers to keep you informed on upcoming changes in the industry.

If you have a topic you'd like us to bring to you please email me at Jay@valleyREadvisor.com.

Trilogy at Vistancia, Peoria Arizona

Not only do I enjoy living in the community of Trilogy at Vistancia, I also enjoy selling homes here. I had a buyer in from Florida this week that is looking to make a move to Arizona and get away from the humidity and hurricanes of Florida. They looked at a lot of homes from Buckeye, Surprise, Goodyear all the way up to Cave Creek, and Anthem in the far north valley.

After looking at homes in what you would consider "family communities" I decided to show them what an active adult community looks like. Of course Trilogy at Vistancia is not your typical retirement community. The majority of owners here still have a "day job" of some sort. With the 45 and up rule, there are a lot of us that enjoy this resort style living (pools, club, activities, etc.) and still work full time.

After seeing Trilogy, they loved this area and are considering a home here. The loved the same things most of us do when we looked for the first time. As you enter the community you pass the golf club, waterfalls and the guarded gatehouse. Once in side the community the palm trees and golf course give you that "I'm living in a resort" feeling and the clubhouse offers many amenities like indoor and outdoor pools, tennis courts, bocce ball courts and a 5-mile walking trial.

Bottom line- if you're ready top make a move to a resort community in Arizona that offers shopping just minutes away and a quick 30-45 minute to downtown then Trilogy at Vistancia may be for you. For more information on new builds as well as existing homes for sale please email or call me and I'd be happy to send you information. Ask about my special incentives for using my services in this community!

Phoenix pending home sales

This morning the Pending Home Sales Report (Click for more details) for the metro Phoenix area blew away all expectations.  The experts were banking on the report indicating a -1% drop in activity when in fact the report showed a 6.3% increase!  This report is a leading indicator for existing home sales and can serve as a strong economic indicator. 

Mortgage interest rates are continuing their battle with inflation and are trying to recover some losses from this morning.  As the wise turtle in Kung Fu Panda said, there is no bad news, just news.  With that in mind we need to focus on the news that will be coming out this afternoon.  Ben Bernanke is set to speak on the hottest topic in the market right now - INFLATION.  He is speaking at the Boston Fed conference tonight at 5:15pm Arizona time. 

His comments will certainly have an effect on mortgage interest rates.  If he has a worrisome tone, we can expect mortgage rates to lose some ground.  If Mr. Bernanke downplays the current risks of inflation, mortgage rates will respond favorably.  I will be sure to keep you posted.

I'm back and ready to write!

OK, for those of you that read this on a regular basis you've noticed that I haven't written in a while. There's a few reasons for that including a vacation back to Michigan but bottom line is I need to get back into the groove. With that in mind let me tell you about a few new listings I added over the last week or so.

30989 N 125th Dr in Vistancia. This is a newer home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and more upgrades then you'd want me to write about. Let's just say the slate tile thoughout the home should be your first indication that the owner spared no expense. This homes is being offered at $300,000.

4009 E Paso Tr in North Phoenix. This home is located in Tatum Highlands which is near Tatum and Jomax Roads. It has one of the nicest "resort style" pools I've seen in a while. It's spacious and the owner has installed a great flagstone courtyard for those quiet evenings when you just want to relax with a little privacy. All for only $364,000.

In my next entry I'll focus a little bit more on current market conditions. For those of you who want information on a regular basis you can always obtain the most recent market (metro Phoenix, AZ area) information by visiting www.azMarketSnapshot.com.

The best part about my market snapshot program, is you can do it worrying about any agents hassling you about buying or selling.  I won't contact you until you ask.

Timing the Market or just paying more later!

OK, I had another client question when they should buy their new home so I thought it would be a good time to solicit opinions.  They do not have to sell a home so that puts them in a great position to purchase now while the inventory is high and prices low.

Their question was "Should we buy now or wait for the prices to bottom out?"  It's a very good question and I can understand their concern. My question for them (and others) was "How will we know when the prices bottom out?"  In my 16 years in real estate I have never heard a good answer to this question.

So how will we know when it's the bottom??? When the prices start going up again!  Now imagine trying to time this change and get it right.

Two things jump out right away about waiting:

1. Prices are going up so you lost the perfect time. Example - a home is priced $200,000 today, plenty of inventory to choose from and a relaxed approach to buying vs. 4 months from now - $200,000 (went down to 185,00 and then back up to $200,000 during this time), less homes to choose from and in a hurry to beat multiple offers.
2. Interest rates typically follow the market. As the market starts to rebound interest rates will begin to climb up. You may end up paying a monthly payment more then if you bought now.

If anyone has an answer to how we know when we've hit the bottom please let me know. If you're thinking about waiting for the bottom, ask yourself if this is really that important or should you make that purchase now and enjoy your new home. If you have any real estate questions please don't hesitate to email or call me!

Short Sales and Foreclosures

OK, what's going on with the market? Over the last few weeks I've noticed an increase in the number of homes selling here in Phoenix, Arizona. Does this signal the Phoenix market is changing or just a spring sale blitz?

I think the market is on it's way to making a come back. When homes in Surprise and Maricopa sell in a few weeks (sometimes days) this means either the buyers are finally coming back or the home prices are finally catching up with the market.

I've had buyers in the Surprise area looking for a single story home, 4 bedrooms, 3 baths and under $260,000. A couple of months ago this would have been easy but now the homes are receiving 2 and 3 offers over a weekend. Most of these homes are forclosures so the bank will look at all offers over a few days and make a decision which one to go with. I've been on both sides of the decision so I'm telling my buyers it's time to get real with their home purchase. As a buyers agent, I want to make sure my buyers in get in while the prices are low so they can see the greatest equity gains over the next couple of years.

Right now buyers need to start thinking, is this the bottom? Should I be out looking for a home right now? And most important, if I wait until the print media starts talking about this will I be to late?

Charity, just a good reason to golf or both?

On Monday the 7^th RE/MAX Integrity had their annual golf outing at Arrowhead Country Club in Glendale, Arizona.  Every year for the last 16 years they've had this outing and even in these tough times for agents over 94 golfers played. In the past they usually sell out around 140 golfers so this year was not up to par (pun intended) with other years.

The benefactor for this outing is the Children's Miracle Network and specifically the Phoenix Children's Hospital. We were blessed to have a young survivor from a major illness that is now around 10 years old. This little girl sang a song near and dear to her heart, Somewhere Over the Rainbow. What a beautiful voice and I just know someday we'll see her on American Idol, if the show lasts that long.

Credit Scores and Credit Repair Companies

As we know not all companies are created equal and the one you choose to help improve your score is very important. One thing I know for sure is most of us do not understand our scores or how they can be repaired. Recently I've formed an alliance with a company that does credit score repair and I have to say they do it right and for a reasonable amount of money. If you would like their information please contact me directly.

Did you know that if you pay off a collection from 3 or more years ago, you can actually hurt your credit score? Doesn't seem to make sense does it? The reason behind this is the majority of your score is calculated on the last 24 months and when you make that payoff you update the collection and now it shows active in the last 24 months thus lowering your score. Usually at the worst time...when you are getting approved for a loan.

Instead you should make this a condition at closing. This allows you to make the payoff at closing after the loan has been approved based on the credit score at that time. Now of course the payoff will still hurt your score but you've already closed on the new home.

How about credit card limits? At what point does it make sense to keep credit cards opened and with a balance? Most companies agree that anything over 75% of your limit will lower your score but at what point does it help? Most say just getting your revolving balances under 50% can increase your score by 60 points within a few months. Those points can make a difference between getting the home of your dreams or not. If nothing else it could force you to accept a higher interest rate.

When it comes to buying and selling real estate there are many techniques that you can do to actually hurt your chances and many things I can help you overcome. This is why it's so important to use the services of a competent REALTOR and loan officer. For more on how to improve your credit score please email me at Jay@ValleyREAdvisor.com and I'd be happy to send you a detailed list of items that will help.

Are we turning a corner (in real estate)?

Ok, we all know that the media likes to take a subject (like the real estate industry) and beat it to death. Over the last year or so the only stories worth writing about were how the market is so bad, home prices are dropping, etc. Unfortunatley they had good reason to write about this because as we know here in Phoenix, Arizona things have been a little off.

So if the media is now spending their time talking about how the market is getting better, does that mean it is? Are they ahead of the story? Do they know something we don't?

My feeling (tell me what you think) is once the media starts talking about a subject like this, things will change. Is it because of them or are they simply reacting to what the market is doing. Your guess is as good as mine but that seems to be the reality. It's pretty clear that home prices have not started to climb yet but I think we can all agree that things "feel" different. Sales numbers in Arizona are up and it feels like something is about to break lose.

And while we're on the subject of prices. Is it really that bad that some homeowners have not seen an increase in propery values in say...1 year? For a few years the prices of homes were growing by 20, 30 40% and more each year. Wouldn't you expect to see the prices come down as quickly as they went up? How about a person that bought in 2000 and now 7 years later only nets 5-10% increase on their home..is that really all that bad?

Bottom line with this is a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines saying "I'm waiting for the bottom to hit" and my guess is these are the same people that usually wait until it's to late. Don't wait...real estate in Glendale and Peoria have already started to show signs of life. Other areas around Phoenix are also starting to see increased sales so the longer you wait to buy, the better the chances of saying "I should have bought last......".