by Lauren Sherman
Thursday, May 21, 2009provided by

These counties offer retirees comfort and opportunity, but also financial peace of mind.

Ed Coghlan's story is the same as so many others: Over the last year, the North Hills, Calif., owner of a corporate communications firm has seen his retirement accounts dwindle from the low seven figures to the mid-six figures. While Coghlan, 59, isn't destitute, that decrease does mean that he'll have to work longer than he expected.

"I planned on retiring at 65," he says. "Now I expect to be working until my 70s."

Coghlan's not alone. The baby boomers--defined by the Census as those born between 1946 and 1964, and the largest and richest generation of Americans to date--have seen their savings depleted by 20%, or a total of $2 trillion during the current recession, according to Conemarra Partners, a New York-based consulting company. That means postponed retirement for many of them or, in some cases, settling down in spots far away from the tried-and-true options, such as Florida and Arizona.

Why aren't these sunny spots looking as sweet these days? It's a combination of the costs and the particular lifestyle retirees seek. Some retirees are now opting to wind down in college and commuter towns, or places where they have spent significant amounts of time in the past, according to Robert G. Kramer, president of the National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry (NIC), a market research firm in Annapolis, Md. These include Westchester, N.Y., and Lancaster, Pa.

Similarly, in Montgomery County, Pa., a commuter suburb on Philadelphia's affluent mainline, 14.9% of the overall population--778,048--is 65 and over. While it's not cheap to live here--average property tax on a home is $3,614 per year, according to the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax research group based in Washington, D.C.--it's likely that seniors find comfort in the fact that Montgomery County is close to a major metropolis. It's also close to prestigious colleges such as Haverford, not to mention the parks and recreation that come with such proximity.

Nassau County on New York's Long Island possesses similar qualities as Montgomery, and ranks second on our list of the best places to retire. However, traditional, warm-climate options such as Pima County, Ariz., Palm Beach County, Fla., and Honolulu County, Hawaii, remain high on the list because they're affordable.

Behind the Numbers

To determine which U.S. counties are the best places to grow old, we used several data points, three determined by the U.S. Census Bureau: the percentage of those aged 65 and over in counties with a total population of 500,000, median monthly housing costs and median income of those 65 and over in each of these counties. To get a sense of overall economic health, we used the most up-to-date unemployment-rate data for each county, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Finally, with data provided by New York market research firm Onboard Informatics, we determined the number of hospitals, clinics and elder care facilities per 10,000 people in each county.

While the counties that make our list aren't necessarily the most affordable, they do offer more of what retirees tend to want: easy access to medical care, a healthy local economy and the opportunity to enjoy a fulfilling second act. Westchester County, for example, attracts seniors with its picturesque towns and villages along the Hudson River, like Tarrytown and Sleepy Hollow. Many seniors who want to remain close to their New York City-dwelling children also choose Westchester.

In many instances, retirees are actually moving out of elder care facilities and into their children's homes. Sometimes, it's for the financial benefit of the retiree; others, it's for the financial benefit of the children.

"Anecdotally, we've noticed that seniors across the country are moving out of elder care facilities to move in with their children," says Kramer. "There are children who are now unemployed that need mom or dad's income to get by."

For those who want to settle down on their own, a place like Montgomery County, Md., offers a bit of everything: good weather year-round, a strong economy (with a 2008 average unemployment rate of just 3.2%, while the national average was 5.8%) and a decent number of senior citizens--12.5% of the population--so that the retiree can be surrounded by his or her peers.

Low Costs, Warm Weather

The coastal county of Brevard in Florida has one of the highest percentages of senior citizens in the country, and that's mostly due to the area's warm, tropical weather. But several warm-climate spots also offer affordability.

Even in notoriously expensive Honolulu County, average property tax on a home is just $1,295 per year, according to the Tax Foundation. And while Florida's and Arizona's economies have been hit badly by the real-estate bubble's burst, Palm Beach County and Pima County now offer good deals on prime properties.

And they're not out of reach for retirees, even as bad as the economy is right now. Dan Owens, director of the Charlotte, N.C.-based consulting firm the National Active Retirement Association, points out that while baby boomers aren't as rich as they were in 2008, 77% of all U.S. financial wealth is still held by those 50 and over.

In many cases, retirees can as easily use what's left of their savings to build a new life within a retirement community--such as Montgomery County, Md.'s Leisure World, a community of 8,500 seniors that includes an 18-hole golf course, indoor and outdoor swimming pools, restaurants, tennis courts and on-site medical care--as they can to embark on a second career. The retirement account balances may be smaller, but with 78 million baby boomers already retired or expected to retire over the next few years, the number of options for retirement relocation are only increasing.

Coghlan certainly hasn't given up on a cushy second act, even if it's a few more years away than he expected.

"I'm still invested in the markets," he says. "I'm expecting a comeback."

5 Best Places to Grow Old

1. Montgomery County, Pa.

Total Population: 778,048*
Percent of Population 65 and Over: 14.9%*
Median Income of Those 65 and Over: $41,323*
Median Housing Costs Per Month: $1,539*
Average 2008 Unemployment Rate: 4.4%**
Number of Hospitals, Clinics and Elder Care Facilities Per 10,000 People: 2***

This county encompasses several wealthy Philadelphia suburbs, including King of Prussia, home to the largest mall on the East Coast. And while this complex attracts shoppers from all over, most of Montgomery is more idyllic, including leafy college towns Bryn Mawr and Lower Merion Township, which is home to part of the 215-acre Haverford College campus.

2. Nassau County, N.Y.

Total Population: 1,351,625*
Percent of Population 65 and Over: 15.0%*
Median Income of Those 65 and Over: $48,848*
Median Housing Costs Per Month: $2,140*
Average 2008 Unemployment Rate: 4.7%**
Number of Hospitals, Clinics and Elder Care Facilities Per 10,000 People: 2***

Along with close proximity to New York City, 13 government parks, eight designated beaches and five marinas, benefits of retiring on Long Island's Nassau County include a low crime rate as well as the convenience of having 295 hospitals, clinics and elder care facilities in the area.

3. Pima County, Ariz.

Total Population: 1,012,018*
Percent of Population 65 and Over: 15.2%*
Median Income of Those 65 and Over: $36,635*
Median Housing Costs Per Month: $972*
Average 2008 Unemployment Rate: 5.1%**
Number of Hospitals, Clinics and Elder Care Facilities Per 10,000 People: 2***

The warm, dry weather of South Central Arizona first attracts retirees, but it's the parks and recreation that keep them busy. From the Coronado National Forest to the Starr Pass bike trails, physical activity is an important element of Pima County's culture. Most of the population surrounds the city of Tucson, where the subprime mortgage crisis has resulted in thousands of suddenly affordable homes.

4. Palm Beach County, Fla.

Total Population: 1,265,293*
Percent of Population 65 and Over: 22.1%*
Median Income of Those 65 and Over: $37,799*
Median Housing Costs Per Month: $1,250*
Average 2008 Unemployment Rate: 6.6%**
Number of Hospitals, Clinics and Elder Care Facilities Per 10,000 People: 4***

One of the most traditional counties for retirement in the country, the area's cultural and recreational points of interest are almost all targeted toward seniors, from five senior centers--offering everything from tap dancing classes to mahjong--to 43 beaches and parks. As Florida, like Arizona, was hit hard by the subprime mortgage crisis, buying a home or condo in the area is more affordable than it's been in years.

5. Honolulu County, Hawaii

Total Population: 905,034*
Percent of Population 65 and Over: 15.4% *
Median Income of Those 65 and Over: $53,020*
Median Housing Costs Per Month: $1,566*
Average 2008 Unemployment Rate: 3.5%
Number of Hospitals, Clinics and Elder Care Facilities Per 10,000 People: 2***

It's not hard to understand why retirees might choose Honolulu for its white sand beaches on the Pacific Ocean, numerous golf courses and unique landscape. And despite the fact that cost of living is often purported as high, the average property income tax on a home in Honolulu County is just $1,295 per year, according to the Tax Foundation.

Click here for the full list of the Best Places to Grow Old

*Source: U.S. Census Bureau
**Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
***Source: Onboard Informatics

Complete Methodology

To determine which U.S. counties are the best places to grow old, we used several data points, three determined by the U.S. Census Bureau: the percentage of those aged 65 and over in counties with a total population of 500,000, median monthly housing costs and median income of those 65 and over in each of these counties. To get a sense of overall economic health, we used the most up-to-date unemployment-rate data for each county, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Finally, with data provided by New York market research firm Onboard Informatics, we determined the number of hospitals, clinics and elder care facilities per 10,000 people in each county.

There were 100 counties included in our methodology. We ranked each data point 1 to 100, and then averaged the rankings to procure a final ranking. The three most important data points--the percentage of those aged 65 and over, the median income of those 65 and over, and the number of hospitals, clinics and elder care facilities per 10,000 people in each county--were weighted to ensure our rankings reflected ideal places for retirement.

Onboard worked with its source partners--research firms InfoUSA and Total Living Choices--to identify and define these facilities and then standardize and match the results to create a consolidated county based content set.

Copyrighted, Forbes.com. All rights reserved.

Some see signs of life in AZ home sales

Market surges in Phoenix area; flat rate locally hints at bottom

By Josh Brodesky

Arizona Daily Star

Tucson, Arizona | Published: 05.13.2009

Home sales in Arizona rose by 50 percent in the first quarter of the year, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.

But in Pima County home sales remained flat, and that's a good thing, several experts said.

The uptick in sales statewide has largely been fueled by foreclosures in Maricopa County that have driven down home prices there and drawn investors who are looking for bargains. So, to not see an uptick in home sales in Tucson during the first quarter reflects fewer foreclosures and a more stable market.

"The increases (in sales) have primarily been in the metro Phoenix market. Home sales in Tucson really have not moved up strongly like what you have seen in Phoenix," University of Arizona economist Marshall Vest said. "The Tucson market did not get overheated. The prices did not get nearly as far out of line. We don't appear to have nearly the overhang of foreclosed houses here."

The National Association of Realtors reported home sales fell in all but six states - Arizona, Nevada, California, Florida, Virginia and Minnesota, where buyers have been able to snap up foreclosures at deep discounts.

Sales more than doubled in Nevada, rose 81 percent in California and grew 50 percent in Arizona - signaling the worst may be over for those distressed states.

Meanwhile, home prices continued to fall, declining in 134 out of 152 metropolitan areas compared with the same period a year ago. The median sales price nationwide was $169,900, down 13.8 percent from a year ago.

But in Tucson, the median home price - the middle point in sales - has been flat, hovering around $165,000 for four out of the last five months. It was $164,000 in April, the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service's monthly report shows.

In fact, the market as a whole has been flat.

Not only has the median price been steady, but so have sales numbers: There were 2,268 home sales in the fourth quarter of last year, and there were 2,139 sales in the first quarter of this year. New listings have been dropping, but that is largely because people are not putting homes on the market.

"Flat is good. Flat means we are bottoming out," Vest said. "That's what we have been waiting for."

Home sales in Phoenix account for roughly 70 percent of the market statewide, so what happens there drives state numbers, said Jay Q. Butler, real estate studies director at Arizona State University.

"What's really picked up is homes that were foreclosed on are now being sold to investors," Butler said. Pima County "never really participated in the hyper-market. You were about ready to, but it ended, so you are lucky."

For the last few months, foreclosures have made up roughly 40 percent of home sales in the Phoenix market, driving down the median price to $125,000 last month for non-foreclosure resales, Butler said.

While Butler labeled the uptick in home sales encouraging - there were 9,100 recorded sales in Maricopa County in April versus 8,610 in March and 6,395 in April of last year - he was reticent to call a bottom, saying there are too many unknowns around employment, potential loan modifications and government programs to help distressed homeowners.

"A month does not make a trend," Butler said.

Foreclosure activity will play a key role in whether the housing markets in Maricopa and Pima counties have bottomed or will continue to fall.

In Pima County, foreclosure activity has picked up this year as 4,145 foreclosure sale notices have already been filed, and 1,594 properties have gone back to the bank, according to the Pima County Recorder's Office. Both numbers are significantly higher than in previous years.

"I think these numbers will probably stay at a high level," Vest said. "We now also have people who have lost their jobs because of the weak economy who can't service their mortgages."

But in the Phoenix metro area, foreclosures have fallen off, dropping to about 27 percent of all transactions.

"Foreclosure activity is down because a lot of lenders went into hiatus waiting for some of the modification and refinancing programs," Butler said. "The simple reality is that 2008 was so bad, that if we don't show positive increases this year, then we would really be in trouble."

But Rosey Koberlein, CEO of Long Realty Co., said she sees the uptick in sales in Phoenix coupled with the relative flatness of Tucson's housing market as signs that the bottom has arrived.

The combination of low prices, low interest rates and an $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers has created plenty of incentive for people looking to get into the housing market. It's a window, she said, that won't last long.

"I believe we have hit bottom, and we will be working our way back up from this bottom," Koberlein said.

Highpoints include the notable fact that inventory is the lowest

it has been since January '06 with just 6,890 listings. At this time last year, there were 8,800

or 21.78% more. The number of days on market is down in the 70's from the 80's; always a welcome

trend. Also, our year to date (YTD) sales units are down just 219 units from YTD '08.

The median sales price dropped less than one percent last month and is now $164,000. This is

down 15.90% from YTD '08. Home sales volume is down 5.86% from last year. There aren't any

remarkable changes in the March to April comparison. You'll notice that the inventory and

pending sales are moving closer together. There are those who say 4-5 months defines a trend

and this would be a good trend. When inventory is dropping and new sales are increasing we're

starting to eat into that over supply. Between that and the fact that new home permits are down

considerably, the housing supply is coming closer and closer to demand.

These statistics should reassure you as well as your clients. Typically prices don't continue to fall

when supply is on the decrease in relation to demand. While we don't pretend to have a crystal

ball we do have hopeful statistical indicators. It isn't the time for "irrational exuberance" but then

again, was it ever?

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