Last week with the rumors of a relief package for the financial market in the news, the average mortgage interest rates hardly reacted. Finally, a week later, we saw rates fall below 6.0%. Today 10/9/08 Freddie Mac reported that the average mortgage interest rate for 30 year fixed-rate mortgages was 5.94% (5.88% in the southeast), down from 6.10% a week ago. The average interest rate for 15 year fixed-rate mortgages was 5.63%, down from 5.78% last week. A year ago the 30 year rate was 6.40%. This week's fall was the first in 3 weeks!

As I reported yesterday, pending home sales increased in August of this year. 7.4% according to Freddie Mac. This was the largest increase since October of 2001. Doesn't that seem like centuries ago now?? July 2008's figures were also revised upward. The question is, will this trend continue into the future, considering the economic chaos that has taken place since August? A very big and important question, and I am not sure anyone knows the answer. But at least inventory is being eaten up, and that is a good thing for sellers in particular. Where I used to see 30 to 40 new listings come on the market each day in my area, now I am seeing only 4 or 5 on average.

The Federal Reserve also dropped its lending rate by one-half of one percent and that could be reflected in even lower mortgage rates next week. Sometimes it goes the opposite way, but let's keep our fingers crossed.

Refinancing and new mortgage applications grew slightly over the past week. Whereas they had been decreasing during the previous two weeks. I also saw a report yesterday on the television news that in some areas of Florida, Lee County to be particular, the market was again heating up as buyers are realizing the bargains that are now out there due to heavily discounted prices, and as a result, they were snapping them up left and right. In fact, the National Association of REALTORs report yesterday said that Florida was one of the main areas where the pending home sales were shooting up faster than in many other parts of the US. We sure would like that here!

If you want to learn more about Freddie Mac or see the details of their survey, go to: www.freddiemac.com and click on the link for "Current Weekly Survey". They break down the survey by specific regions in the United States so you can see how your state compares to other parts of the country. They also explain the mission of Freddie Mac and offer a lot of useful information for consumers.

If you would like to speak with a lender you can find some at my website: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com . You can also speak with your own bank, credit union, or mortgage broker to see what your particular interest rate would be, should you decide to finance a home purchase.

WASHINGTON, October 08, 2008 - Pending home sales activity surged as buyers took advantage of low home prices and affordable interest rates, according to the National Association of Realtors^®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August, jumped 7.4 percent to 93.4 from an upwardly revised reading of 87.0 in July, and is 8.8 percent higher than August 2007 when it stood at 85.8. The index is at the highest level since June 2007 when it stood at 101.4.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home buyers were responding to improved affordability. “What we’re seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island and the Washington, D.C., region,” he said. "It’s unclear how much contract activity may be impacted by the credit disruptions on Wall Street, but we’re hopeful most of the increase will translate into closed existing-home sales.”

The PHSI in the West surged 18.4 percent to 109.5 in August and remains 37.8 percent above a year ago. In the Northeast the index jumped 8.4 percent to 79.8 and is 2.0 percent higher than August 2007. The index in the Midwest rose 3.6 percent to 84.5 in August and is 6.6 percent above a year ago. In the South, the index increased 2.3 percent to 96.0 but is 2.1 percent below August 2007.

Yun notes the unusual timing of contract activity in August. “Home buyers in July were hampered by overly stringent lending criteria in the months before the government takeover of Fannie and Freddie,” he said. “August shows some unleashing of pent-up demand before the credit crisis accelerated in September.”

He cautioned that the sampling size for pending home sales is smaller than the track on existing-home sales, so there is more volatility in the forward-looking series. “We need to see just how much of this gain holds up,” Yun said.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said despite all the turmoil in world financial markets, home mortgages are available. “Mortgages have been harder to find, and availability and terms vary depending on credit score and location, but Realtors^® can help buyers find reputable lenders while helping them navigate the transaction process,” he said. “The recently enacted economic stimulus package should help housing by gradually freeing the flow of credit.”

Yun now expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to contract for two consecutive quarters, in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2009, before expanding in latter part of 2009 as the housing market begins a steady improvement.

Looking at middle-ground assumptions, existing-home sales are forecast at 5.04 million this year and 5.41 million in 2009. Following national declines of 5 to 8 percent in 2008, home prices are projected to increase 2 to 3 percent next year.

New-home sales should total around 503,000 this year and 471,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are likely to fall 28.2 percent to 973,000 units this year, and come in around 843,000 in 2009 as builders continue to clear the accumulation in inventory.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter and rise gradually to 6.6 percent by the end of 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to average 18 percentage points higher this year than in 2007.

The unemployment rate is projected to average 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter and then average 6.6 percent in 2009. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is estimated at 4.0 percent for 2008 and 2.0 percent next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.7 percent this year and 1.0 percent in 2009.

Source: National Associaton of REALTORs Press Release

As we did last year, the Visiting Nurse Association will be administering flu shot vaccinations at our CENTURY 21 Bill Nye Realty, Inc. offices at 34619 State Road 54, Zephyrhills, Florida from 9:00 AM to 1:00 PM on Thursday, November 6, 2008. We will have juice and cookies available as you wait for your turn.

The cost of each shot is $25. However, Medicare Part B will cover the costs for those in that program. Those with private insurance or those who get their Medicare benefits from Humana will be given a receipt for possible reimbursement. Pneumonia shots will also be available for $45.

Vaccine recipients must be at least 18 years of age.

You can stop by the Visiting Nurse Association of Florida by clicking on the following link: www.vnaflorida.org You can phone them at: 727-845-8099.

I also invite you to also visit my webpage at: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com  where you will find links to many interesting sites dealing with real estate. You are always welcome there.

I can also be contacted via e-mail at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com or by phone at: 813-783-4444

If you need directions to our location, click on the following link for a map and driving instructions: http://www.jelwell.century21bnr.com/PalmTree.aspx?page=19&content=How to Find Us

I was speaking with two other agents in our office yesterday and we were comparing the experiences that our customers were having as they searched for home insurance. It appears that since we have not recently been hit by a large storm, they have more options. However, the prices for the same coverage can vary greatly. One home buyer recently checked out two companies for coverage. One quoted him $1,200 for a policy and another said they could give him the same coverage for just over $600! That is a BIG difference. If he had not called more than one agency he would have ended up paying a lot more than he had to. I have seen this happen on several occasions. One office's price frequently being much higher than a competitor's.

Strangely, even when the underwriter is the same one, say Citizens (Florida's state-run insurance company) the premiums can vary from office-to-office. Since most of our new policies are being written by smaller companies that use independent agents to sell their products, it would pay you to call several offices. Even if all of them say you will have to use XYZ Insurance Company, their prices could still be different.

When comparing, do make sure that you are comparing "apples to apples". To get a true picture, the coverage has to be the same, as well as the deductibles. An easy way to do this is to copy the coverage data from the first company and then take that to the second, and so on. See who will give you the best price for the same coverage. Ask friends, neighbors, and family members for recommendations concerning agents that you can call. Here are some that my customers have used in the past that you may want to speak with to get things started:

• Schneider and Associates            813-782-2915
• Accurate Insurance                      813-780-6851
• Gene Smith Insurance                  813-780-8300
• Bauer Insurance                            352-567-3702
• Lee Reed Insurance                      813-782-5502
• Smith & Thomas                             813-780-9183
• Horace Mann (Teachers)              813-788-5889
• USAA (Military Only)                    800-287-4950

Many others can be found on the internet and in the Yellow Pages. If you like, you can check out any of these providers with the Better Business Bureau of West Florida at 727-535-5522 or you can visit their webpage and check for complaints by clicking on the following link: www.bbbwestflorida.org When spending your money it never hurts to be careful. It is my policy to not recommend any specific company, and the one you choose to work with is completely up to you as the homeowner. As I mentioned earlier, your friends, neighbors, and family can be helpful guides if you want recommendations

Be aware that here the companies that will write new policies in any one area can change from week-to-week. Almost as frequently as airfares do. They just want to make sure that they do not get too many policies in one spot so that if a disaster occurs they will be able to pay off their policies. So it pays to check back with a company from time-to-time. If they cannot help you in May, they might be able to get you a policy in June. But the effort can save you a lot of money.

Also, do not assume that if a policy is offered by some group that you belong to it will be the cheapest. This is not always the case. For example, I was sent a mailer by the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) telling me how much I could save by letting "Company A" insure my car. So I called them up and gave them all the info they needed. The price they quoted me was TWICE what I am currently paying!!! To me that sure was no way to save money.

So check out several companies and see where you can get the best deal. Do remember that if there is a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning anywhere in Florida, the companies will not write any new policies. So do not wait until a hurricane is on the way to begin your search.

If you wish to contact me, you can call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com I will be happy to assist you in any way that I can!

On Saturday, November8, 2008 from 2:00 PM to 9:00 PM a lot will be happening in downtown Zephyrhills, Florida. Officially the event is called Music and Motorcyles, but includes a lot more.

• At 11:00 AM there will be a Hike for Hospice at Zephyr Park to raise funds for our local hospice network. Teams can register at 9:30 AM that same day.
• At 2:00 PM there will be a Veterans Parade to honor those citizens that have served our country in its military over the years.
• From 6:00 PM to 8:00 PM there will be judging of motorcycles in 12 different classes. You can view the different classifications of bikes by clicking on the following link: Download BikeShowClasses.pdf Registration for this competition will take place from 4:00 PM to 5:30 PM. There is a $10 entry fee if you wish to enter your motorcycle in the competition.
• Throughout the day live music will be presented for your enjoyment from the bandstand located at the plaza in the center of the downtown district.

For more information you can call the folks at Main Street Zephyrhills, Inc. at: 813-780-1414, e-mail them at: mszi@verizon.net, or visit their website at: www.mainstreetzephyrhills.org  I am sure they will be happy to assist you.

Even with all of the mess on Wall Street during the past two weeks, average mortgage interest rates on fixed-rate loans only inched upward a tad. Today 10/2/08 Freddie Mac reported that the average mortgage interest rate for 30 year fixed-rate mortgages was 6.10% (6.11% in the southeast), up from 6.09% a week ago. The average interest rate for 15 year fixed-rate mortgages was 5.78%, up from 5.77% last week. A year ago the 30 year rate was 6.37%.

Interest rates on short-term adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) actually went down a bit. But not all that much.

It is being reported that applications for new mortgages were down 23% from last week. They had been rising lately, but it is no surprise that once the rates jumped above 6% last week based on the bad news from the financial markets got out, interest in new loans decreased. Logical!

New orders for products were down, and thus, so was production. So the next domino to fall will likely be cutbacks at many companies. The man on the street is feeling the effects of our sluggish economy, and the turmoil on Wall Street and the in-fighting in Washington are doing little to calm the anxiety that many Americans are feeling. One has to wonder if perception, as much as reality, is driving events now. But, without a doubt, if credit cannot be freed up for businesses and individuals, the pain will be felt in many sectors of the economy for longer than it has to. One can only hope that our government (which helped the banks get us into this situation) will do the right thing. With elections coming soon, anything can happen. That is my humble opinion.

On the bright side for buyers, prices on homes are still down and interest rates, though higher, are historically quite low. On the dark side, credit requirements are being tightened. So you need a great rating to be able to take advantage of the lower home prices.

If you want to learn more about Freddie Mac or see the details of their survey, go to: www.freddiemac.com and click on the link for "Current Weekly Survey". They break down the survey by specific regions in the United States so you can see how your state compares to other parts of the country. They also explain the mission of Freddie Mac and offer a lot of useful information for consumers.

If you would like to speak with a lender you can find some at my website: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com . You can also speak with your own bank, credit union, or mortgage broker to see what your particular interest rate would be, should you decide to finance a home purchase.

Halloween Howl in Zephyrhills, Florida

When: Saturday, October 25th from 4 PM to 9 PM (Haunted House Open Oct. 24th from 6-10 PM, Oct. 25th from 4 - 10 PM, Oct. 31 from 6 - 10 PM)

Where: Downtown Zephyrhills, FL on 5th Avenue

Events Planned:

• Hayrides
• Haunted House (see schedule above)
• Carnival Games
• Safe trick-or-treating
• Inflatables for kids (slides, obstacle course, bounce)
• Train Ride
• Clowns
• Face Painting
• Cake Walk
• Great Food
• Karaoke
• Star Wars Characters
• Blood Net Van for blood donors
• And much more!!!

Children's Parade at 7 PM on October 25th on 5th Avenue.

For more information call the Main Street office at:  813-780-1414 or e-mail them at: mszi@verizon.net 

My October 2008 Real Estate Newsletter is now available for download as a PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file. Just click on the following link: Download october_2008_newsletter.pdf

If you would like to receive these newsletters automatically in the future each month, just send me an e-mail and let me know. I would be glad to add you to my e-mailing list. You can e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

Of course, most of you are aware of the current turmoil on Wall Street and the "relief package" that congress and the President are now fighting about. Who knows how it will turn out. However, most of the economists that I have watched on all of the news channels are stating that this is a "credit crisis". In other words, both companies and consumers cannot get the credit they need to help grease the wheels of the economy. Grease like loans to buy cars, business loans to expand, mortgages for new home purchases, and the construction loans for developers so they can start the homes in the first place. And this goes on and on. Of course this has scared many people, even though many of the recent stock market losses are paper ones.

What this does in our market, and in many others around Florida, is to give greater importance to those buyers who pay for their real estate purchases with CASH. Many of my customers are looking for second homes where they can escape the snow and cold of northern winters. A large percentage of these buyers pay in cold hard cash. Part of this is due to the fact that the homes they are buying are much more affordable and lend themselves to cash deals. Another component is that many of the buyers also have homes up north that they own free-and-clear, and when necessary, they can pull out a modest amount of equity to buy a home down here. Also, my foreign investors tend to pay cash since the British pound and EURO are currently worth more than the US dollar. I have one English investor that has bought two properties in the past months and paid for both with cash!

Of all the homes that I have sold in the past calendar year, only 3 that I can think of, were financed. The others were cash deals, and ranged from $55,000 mobile home to a $260,000 large home on an acre lot, and everything in between. It used to be that sellers did not care whether the money came from the buyers' pockets or the banks' vaults. But with the requirements for financing a home getting stricter by the day, those buyers who can offer cash-on-the-barrel, are being courted agressively by REALTORs and they sellers.

Sellers need to price their homes correctly and attractively so that the cash buyers will be drawn to them. They also need to make sure they are in tip-top condition. Why is a cash buyer going to buy your home for X dollars, when they can get the same home down the street that is in better shape for 10% less? Sellers also need to be willing to bargain fairly, since the wait for a financed deal may be a very long one and likely full of hurdles the buyers may not be able get over. As an example, I just sold a foreclosure home that was listed at $100,000. The bank had received a full price offer with a financing contingency. The bank knew what the lending market was like, and instead accepted my buyer's $80,000 cash offer. We closed in less than two weeks. Much quicker than a short sale.

Sellers should keep in mind that when they deal with cash buyers, often they do not have to worry about the results of surveys, credit approval, appraisals, etc. Those are big concerns and any one of the can wreck a deal. With cash, most of those will disappear. So sellers, always take cash offers seriously, even if eventually you are forced to turn them down. Also be aware that often cash buyers do not like the tedious waits of a short sale. My investors are somewhat insulted when they make a fair cash offer and then it takes the bank a month to respond. So keep that fact in the back of your minds.

For buyers who can pay cash, they can in the "catbird's seat". Though they cannot call all the shots, they can bargain from a stronger position. Since credit is tight now, cash offers can look mighty tempting to sellers, especially if their homes have been languishing on the market for months, or now, for years. If you offer a fair price, reasonable terms, and a quick closing you will often be surprised at the concessions the sellers may give you.

So, for all concerned, "Cash can be King" while credit remains tight. Buyers can get some good deals, and sellers can move properties that they would otherwise be shackled to. Sometimes a "sure thing" can be comforting. Food for thought as we move through this bumpy housing market.

Contact me if I can be of further service to you. You can call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my webpage at: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com where you will also find links to my Florida Real Estate Blog and my Zephyrhills 55+ Bulletin Board.

Due to the latest news from Wall Street, many people are wondering if the deposits they have in banks are safe or not. In most cases they are protected by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation which, as I understand it, was put in place to give consumers confidence back when many banks failed in the early part of the 20th century. A few of you may have been young children at that time and still remember the events.

In any case, the FDIC has set up a site where you can check to see if your bank is covered and to what extent your money is protected. Especially be aware of how much money is protected in each account at each bank. To check this site out, click on the following link: FDIC LINK

If your money is in a credit union account, you can call your local office for more information or visit the National Credit Union Administration at: http://www.ncua.gov/ to see how their funds are protected. It is my understanding that they have a separate system in place that functions similarly to the FDIC's.

Contact me if I can be of further service to you. You can call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my webpage at: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com  where you will also find links to my Florida Real Estate Blog and my Zephyrhills 55+ Bulletin Board.