I'm just back from a very nice Thanksgiving back home in Kentucky, and as I catch up on the latest news in the world of Philadelphia real estate I thought I'd link to some of the most interesting things that I'm reading so you can catch up on what's been happening as well.

1. News of the tax credit expansion is getting out and you may have questions about it - get some of them answered here and call me if you have more - there's no time to waste if you want to get this credit, I wouldn't expect them to keep extending it forever.

2. Interest rates are still crazy low - the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 4.82%, and it's even lower (4.32%) for 15-year fixed rate loans which I think are a great option for buyers who can afford slightly higher payments and want to take a more conservative approach to homeownership. In the Philly area TDBank is quoting a 4.625% 30-year fixed loan and offers even better rates for certain qualified buyers.

3. Depending on which report you read and how you read it, national home prices in September either rose slightly or drifted along flatly. With the holidays coming up I would expect limited transaction data to lead to a few more months of inconclusive data, with big swings due to the rush to close before the tax credit's original expiration date of 11/30/09 (it is now extended through April 2010). Once we start seeing January and February 2010 data we should have a better idea of whether housing is going to start the long slog towards recovery or remain weak due to continuing high unemployment and weak overall economic growth. Retail sales numbers for the holiday season will provide an early glimpse of comsumer sentiment that may foreshadow housing market performance going forward.

4. The cautious return of the Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) market (Example 1 and Example 2) is a good sign for commercial real estate, but there's still a long way to go before fundamentals justify jumping head first into anything but the most conservative commercial deals.

That's my news update for so far - let me know what issues are jumping out as the big drivers in real estate going into December and 2010, it's the time of year to look back at what we've learned and get ready for what's coming.

If you've ever stayed up late watching infomercials and thought "maybe I could make millions in real estate..." then you'll appreciate this website: www.landlordmentor.com. It seeks to provide much of the information that you would learn from the Real Estate Riches style programs without any of the gimmickry or sales pitches (it's a purely free, informational website written by a guy in Texas). While the site doesn't claim to be for everyone, it does give you in depth information about one successful investor's experience and does a good job of setting expectations at the right level - specifically that you can make lots of money in real estate, but it requires hard work and dedication, just like anything else. I also think the way this investor writes is much more entertaining than most used-car pitch get rich quick programs.

I'm still working my way through the website now, reading what he has to say and thinking about how it does or doesn't apply to the markets I work in (mainly Philadelphia). I'd be happy to discuss the finer points of real estate investing and the particular things to watch out for in the Philly market with anyone who's interested, just give me a call or email.

Over the past couple of weeks events have conspired to give first-time home buyers a second chance at snagging the deal of a lifetime! First the $8,000 tax credit was extended through April 30th of 2010 and expanded to include a tax credit for some repeat buyers, letting them in on the fun a bit as well. Additionally, mortgage rates have again dropped solidly below 5% - one banker I work with is quoting 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 4.875% this morning, and they offer even lower rates for qualified first time buyers. Finally, there is still an abundance of housing inventory available, at least in the Philadelphia neighborhoods where I work. Everything from bargain-basement fixer-uppers and distressed condos to fully renovated or new construction townhomes, duplexes, or triplexes.

If you've been on the fence about buying or if you thought you missed the boat think again. I'd be happy to discuss your personal situation and help you decide whether or not it makes sense for you to buy in this once-in-a-lifetime market.

According to a survey from Move.com the percentage of homebuyers who classify themselves as investors has doubled since March - going from 5.6% to 12.1%. While we could certainly argue about their survey methods and definitions of investors, I think that this survey does capture the general trend of investors 'coming back to the market' after a period when it just didn't make much sense for many smart investors to be closing deals. It's not that the investors went away, or weren't looking for deals, it's just that they couldn't actually get to the closing table.

Now the number of deals that make sense is increasing, for at least two reasons. One reason is that investors are getting a better sense of when and how the economy will recover. For several months late last year and earlier this year the economy looked like a bottomless pit and when you can't predict future economic growth it's hard to be confident enough to invest even at fire-sale pricing. The second reason that more investors are getting to the closing table lately is that 'fire-sale' pricing is becoming more common, even if it's still not as common as some would like. This is luring cautious investors off the sidelines. As more distressed owners (often banks with REO portfolios) realize that they are going to be the ones to eventually take a hit they are becoming more motivated sellers, preferring to get out of their real estate positions sooner rather than later.

For the savvy investor we've reached the beginning of the 'bottom' that we've all been waiting for. Start looking now and you should find plenty of great opportunities over the next 6-24 months. When you start to surveys showing that 25-30% of homebuyers consider themselves investors you should probably start slowing down or selling. Part of the reason for the real estate crisis was, after all, that seemingly every-other home sale was to an 'investor,' many of whom ran up prices without regard for basic fundamentals.

The extension and expansion of the first-time buyer tax credit (now for some other buyers as well) passed through the Senate yesterday and should get through the house and onto the President's desk soon. The details of the expansion are:

$8,000 tax credit for first time buyers extended to those under contract by April 30, 2010 with 60 days to close after that.

Income limits increased to $145,000 for single taxpayers and $245,000 for married couples, with phaseouts beginning at $125,000 and $225,000 respectively.

Eligibility for up to $6,500 in tax credit is extended to repeat buyers who have lived in their home for at least five of the past eight years. These are typically the move-up buyers who will be selling to first-time buyers so this should really help to get the market moving for a few months (and of course lead to a bubble that has to deflate come next summer).

To be eligible for either credit the price of the home being purchased must be under $800,000.

If you're thinking of buying or selling this extension creates a limited-time window where the market should be quite active - strike while the iron is hot.

It may sound like a trick given that it's the day before Halloween, but this house in Darby, just outside Philadelphia could turn into a treat for a lucky essay writer. The owner is conducting an essay contest with a $100 entry fee - the prize for the best essay a free house. Check out this Daily News article for details.

The latest word on the $8,000 first-time-buyer tax credit is that it will be extended for a few more months, and that it will be at least partially expanded to some buyers beyond just first-timers, although the criteria they're using are a bit weird. The excerpt below is from Realtor.org:

"Lawmakers in the Senate have tentatively agreed to extend the existing $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers and also offer a new $6,500 credit for existing homeowners who have lived in their current residence for a consecutive five-year period in the past eight years. Home buyers must be under contract by April 30, 2010, and close before July 1. House Democrats have expressed concern about the cost of the tax credit for the government, and allegations of abuse have resulted in an IRS probe of the program..."

Hopefully they'll settle on something soon so that buyers who are out shopping now will know what they're dealing with, and those thinking of selling will have some idea of what to expect in terms of traffic from potential buyers.

According to Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) passage of an extension to the first-time buyer tax credit seems likely. The most likely format for the extension will be an extension of the current $8,000 tax-credit program through March 31, 2010. After that the maximum tax credit would be reduced by $2,000 per quarter through the end of 2010. This seems like a reasonable way to ease the housing market off it's tax-credit addiction. It hasn't passed yet, but buyers who are rushing to close by November 30th - the current expiration date - may be able to breathe a little easier knowing that additional time is likely on the horizon.

With the Phillies one win away from another visit to the World Series it's easy to enjoy being in Philadelphia this fall. Making it even better are the numerous options for getting outside to enjoy the changing leaves and natural beauty. This online slideshow from Philadelphia Magazine highlights 9 local options for taking in the autumn beauty. Some of these hikes are within some of Philadelphia's most interesting urban neighborhoods, allowing for a day of hiking followed by a night out on the town all within the same zip code. My personal favorites from this list are:

• The Schuylkill River Trail - starting at the Philadelphia Museum of Art this paved trail is great for biking or running and easily accessible from Center City, Fairmount, East Falls, and Manayunk. People-watching along this trail is almost as much fun as checking out its numerous sculpture gardens and skyline vistas (on the West side of the river).
• Forbidden Drive - easy to get to from Manayunk, East Falls, Mt. Airy, or Chestnut Hill, Forbidden Drive offers a great mix of natural beauty and local history. See where the Battle of Germantown was fought, explore historic Rittenhousetown, have brunch at the charming Valley Green Inn, or if you're brave go for a swim in Devil's Pool. For a more strenuous hike take one of the clearly marked trails leading up into the woods on either side of the Wissahickon creek.
• The Manayunk Towpath - located just behind bustling Main Street Manayunk is this historic towpath along the Manayunk Canal. You can follow the towpath from Manayunk through Roxborough and all the way into Montgomery County to Conshohocken and beyond. It's great on foot or on a bike, and you're likely to see fishermen, kayakers, and plenty of fall foliage along the way. If you're thirsty after a long hike Manayunk offers countless options for a refreshing drink, some such as the Manayunk Brewery have outdoor seating right along the canal.

One great place to see nature that isn't on this list is the John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge in Southwest Philly. Even though it's just across I-95 from the airport this 1200 acre preserve can seem miles away from the hustle and bustle of the city. It offers ten miles of hiking and biking trails along with a nature center so that you can learn about the various wildlife you encounter (I've seen turkey, deer, osprey, blue heron, and even snakes). The lake is home to several species of fish as well although my efforts to catch them usually come up short. So, before it gets too much colder get out and enjoy the natural side of Philadelphia.