Total Financial Fitness Blog

Great location for family vacation

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 14:05:33 -0500

Just arrived home from the Camelot Resort, which is located just outside of Fruitland Utah. Here is the website link for Camelot Resorts.

Our extended family on my wife's side spent the last three days there, great environment for kids and families. Fantastic facility and the owners are very friendly as well.

We had 40 family members there and it didn't cost more then $1400 dollars to rent out the main lodge for two nights. The resort is withing 20 minutes of starvation reservoir, and 25 minutes from Strawberry reservoir. So if you like to water ski or fish this is the place! The rock formations that surround this property are simply stunning, the fresh air and amazing scenery are fantastic.

The best part was how close it was to the Wasatch front. Only an hour and fourty five minute drive from Salt Lake City or Provo Utah. I'll be posting some amazing night time photo's that my brother-in-law and I took one night during our short stay.

Finally, there are a number of wonderful lots in this area that are for sale. Not a bad summer cabin or winter cabin if you like to snowmobile or cross country ski.

What the politicans don't understand.....Why home owners fall behind on their mortgages

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 13:43:59 -0500

If History tends to repeat itself, then we're traveling down a familiar road. The U.S. House of representatives has just passed the Mortgage Rescue legislation and it's fast tracking to the Senate. One particular amendment that I'm having a problem with is that congressmen want to do away with down payment assistance, or DPA.

Most people would tend to assume if the borrower on a home loan is putting their own money into the transaction, that it's because they are likely to be more able to make payments on that loan in the future. That's the assumption, or what traditionally has been the case for decades.

The reality is that down payment doesn't determine someones ability to pay back the loan, and I'm going to make the case today that it can often make repayment more difficult.

Let's take the average person who qualifies today for a FHA loan. They don't have to have great credit, and as long as the automatic underwriting computer ( DU or LP ) tells the loan office they qualify, then it's pretty much a done deal. Therefore the borrower could have credit scores in the 500 range, or income that puts their ratio's at over 50% of their income. But the lender is protected because of the mortgage insurance the borrower partially pre-pays with their loan, and the additional payments they make each month with their mortgage payment. So the lender is insured, but in reality the crux of the situation is never addressed.

Their are many reasons why homeowners are defaulting in record numbers in today's market. Most of them boil down to one point, and that's CASH-FLOW. People are not able to pay their mortgage payment because they have too many other obligations hammering them each month. It's that simple, but in reality we make it so difficult in the lending world. This recent amendment in the new legislation is just one example of how most of these decision makers just don't get it.

Let's be honest, the banker knows what the real reason default is occurring. The problem is that if they address that issue, then they are sacrificing the one area where they make the most profit, and that's lending you money you don't really need! Government officials believe anything a lobbyist tells them, because if they don't they won't get campaign donations and hence lose their Georgetown apartment.

Cash-flow, or lack of it is the real reason for the mortgage crisis today, and taking away DPA is the dumbest idea they've come up with yet. Look, if someone saves for months or years, they may eventually come up with the 3% or proposed 3.5% for the down-payment. But at that point if they put the money down, they are now out of cash.......did that sink in yet? Right...the solution to making more mortgage payments is to drain the reserves of those seeking the loan. Ah...but the bank requires certain income levels to qualify for a loan, don't they? The answer to that question is yes, but they allow allot of flexibility and often break their own rules. So someone who owes 50% of their gross income in monthly payments can be approved sometimes, but then after paying all their down and closing costs, they are completely drained in their reserves. So Mr. Homeowner loses his job the next month, and they have no reserves to make the payment. This scenario happens all the time, and those putting all their money back into a new home are just putting themselves in grave danger.

Let's be honest, the banks don't mind huge down payments because it helps them if the house goes into foreclosure. The bank doesn't want to deny someone based on credit or income, because they can squeeze more people into loans. They also know that most Americans never save 3 to 6 months payments, so they'd rather you borrow the money from relatives or clean out actual savings to make their position stronger in the property. This helps the bank but not the borrower, and they wonder why borrowers are going under...

My underwriting guidelines would be the following.

45% maximum DTI, no exceptions unless the borrower has more reserves. For every 5% in DTI, they need another 3 months of reserves to justify the exception. This way someone borrowing at 50% DTI would need at-least 6 months mortgage payments in the bank, and that's after the closing.
Down Payment Assistance is allowed, as long as borrower has 3.5% reserves in a bank account. So take the purchase price ($200k) and that would require $7500 in the borrowers reserve account. (SOURCED AND SEASONED - 60 days NO EXCEPTIONS). That reserve account would need to be solvent after the closing. Therefore that money could not be used for closing costs.

Would this reduce the number of loan approvals at first...YES...but it would force mortgage planners and loan officers to advise their clients to reduce their monthly obligations and increase their savings. The problem is that appraisal values or market conditions will always be fluid. You never can predict them, and unless the actual borrower is secure your always going to have problems if you base it just on appraisal. The problem with eleminating DPA and then assuming it will make better borrowers is wishfull thinking.

If the government would make those two changes to the current underwriting guidelines, you'd have a much better performance level with loans serviced with Fannie and Freddie.

Oil continues to drop....optimism reigns!! atleast for now....

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 20:27:02 -0500

Sometimes in life your right, and hopefully I am at this point in regards to oil. In my last few blog posts I've been suggesting that oil is going to soon be dropping to more manageable levels. It hit the peak recently and has in the past few days began to drop and drop and drop. I can just hear George Soros rubbing his hands in glea as his short bet's are making him BILLIONS of dollars.

This has been one of the biggest sucker plays in recent history. I'm wondering when the SEC is going to announce an investigation of commodity investors who ginned up the cost of oil by spreading false information to drive up the cost of crude. Don't tell me it doesn't happen, because there in a middle of an investigation already with finance companies. I'm not saying that demand has not had any bearing on cost's going up, but let's be intellectually honest. Anytime anyone sneezes in the middle east, and the future market goes nuts. We have reports of expanding inventories and as you'll see in the AP Article, some expert is going to claim that the rest of the world is not conserving, so we're going to see further increases. They don't want the party to end, much like real estate agents and government officials did not want the real estate party to end. But what comes up comes down, and the higher these investors drive up the cost of oil, the harder it is to maintain that price due to lessening demand pressures. The foreign demand will shrink after the Olympics. China has already suggested that oil subsidies are going away. How much longer will other countries be able to handle subsidizing oil? When this goes away, look at demand dropping in these countries as well.

So Wall Street is happy that energy cost's are looking more manageable, which is of course telling you that they are not as worried about inflation as they would be if oil demand had not changed. It's also telling you that oil money is now moving back into the market as well. I know there are other aspects of today's rally, such as the Morgan Stanley news, but hopefully this is the start of good things to come.

Market reaction to falling energy costs

AP NEWS REPORT ON OIL

OH By the way....One reason we may not have to worry about oil demand in China...read this if you want to know more...

China headed for recession.

Oil retreating.....Guess it can't go up forever after all!

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 17:22:35 -0500

Over the past few months I've been predicting a crash in the oil market. I'm not some economic sage or expert, but like the average person, I'm endowed with a mind and I feed it constantly with information. Like any market, oil and commodities are dictated by demand. When economies correct themselves or recede temporarily, then demand in commodities and metals declines. Case in point is this rush to pour cash into the commodity market. Real estate has been down since the end of 2007, and so many investors are continuing the party in commodities. So far it's been great, the prices just go up and up without a end in sight.

But there has been those warning signals that some of these investors have ignored. Airlines are cutting back flights. American's are cutting siginficanlty on travel plans. Everyone is becoming conservation happy with their vehicles. Consumption is dropping quickly and the rest of the world is feeling the affects of the slow down as well.

So why are there people in the media still attempting to GIN up the price of oil! Because it's good business people. It's just like the real estate market in the summer of 2007. You had these real estate investment guru's selling, selling, selling, and claiming that the end would never arrive. But the cost of homes finally reached the ceiling, and borrowers were no longer able to make their payments. The bubble burst and the money moved to the next best thing.

Folks, if your in Oil right now, it's getting allot like the summer of 2007. You better reconsider why your in commodities, because that house is built on allot of media hype and futures manipulation. China after this August is about ready for a major correction, India and Indonesia have had unprecedented growth but are also due for a pause, it just can't keep going up and up everyone. What goes up eventually comes down. George Soros and his buddies are ready to make a killing on betting short, and the blood bath is about to begin. Why don't you think Obama has been that worried about the cost of gasoline. Other then his country club mentality, he knows privately that things are about to change in a big way.

The big question is how much is the little guy going to lose in oil and gas speculation in the next 12 months. How many of these new investors in these markets are first timers with their life savings invested? If I had the money right now, I'd bet short as well. Time to get out folks..time to get out.....

BTW...Oil fell $6.00 bucks today alone. With recent articles like yesterdays about the airline's reducing their demand shortly, this reminds me allot of the last time there was such a run up on oil.

Doom and Gloomers need to do their math....

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 02:05:08 -0500

interesting comment caused me to pull out my calculator and history book. The fear right now is that bank failures are at levels similar to the Depression of 1930. The reality is that it's not even close to 1930's levels. Second, during the 1930-1940 time period, the banks lost over 140 Billion dollars. In today's dollars that would be worth 1.86 Trillion dollars (CPI CALCULATOR).

So now that would be pretty big number in today's financial markets, and we're going to hit that mark fairly soon with the current losses suffered by Indy Mac. But there is also the factor of GDP, Gross Domestic Product. In other words, 140 Billion in losses over 10 years, was in reality about 14% of the national GDP for the United States. That is a significant loss for any country, and is blamed for one of the reasons the depression was so encompassing. However, let's look at what 1.86 Trillion means today with the 2007 GDP. In 2007, the GDP was over 14 trillion dollars. We haven't actually lost yet any percentage of GDP since 2007, so in 2008 we will probably witness the GDP at the same or slightly better then 2007.

So taking that into effect, even if the current crisis swallows up 2 trillion in actual bank losses, which by the way is the most pessimistic outlook of total losses in the current crisis ( which includes consumer credit cards as well), we're only looking at a 1.4% if taken over 10 years. In reality the 2 trillion will probably be charged off in the next two years, with subsequent gains in GDP and pairing of financial losses by 2010 and 2011.

So in reality, the Great Depression would be 10 times as bad as the most dire predictions at present. This seems to me that the press and people in general are getting a little worked up over a major bump in the road. Perspective is difficult when your viewing a period of time that most of us can't even remember. What we're probably dealing with now is a nasty recession, probably not much different then ones we've faced in the past.

What worries me is energy prices. If energy prices continue to push inflation, then I think we have a much bigger problem with Stagflation then any worry about a 1930's style depression. That's what we really need to be bugging our congressmen about right now...Drill now, develop alternative energy, and quit arguing about it!

All News is not negative....Recovery by 2009?

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:53:30 -0500

Despite reading headlines screaming that Oil may go to $300 a barrel, the reality is that we may see $90.00 a barrel by the first quarter of next year.. Airlines Cut oil.

It does not sound like your airfares will be dropping much, because the Airlines are also grounding a number of flights over the next two years. But if gas goes back down to $90.00 a barrel, then say hello to $3.00 bucks or less a gallon by spring of 2009. This will be a major relief to many, and perhaps the bank situation will have stabilized by that point as well.

Don't be surprised at all if we're in a full bull market buying fest in the stock market by the summer of 2009...

Oh...yes, let's not forget...Obama and the Democrat congress will get much of the credit of course, and not Bernake and Paulsen who are doing their best to keep this ship afloat. But that's how the media operates and you just get used to it.

Be carefull of media headlines...sometimes misleading

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 09:31:13 -0500

Here is a great example of one such article...

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07/14/business/14bank.php

Now if you read the headline, it states simply "Analysts say more banks will fail". Seems pretty scary and get's your attention. But then read the article and you get a much more positive view of what's really going happening with the banking industry. I've heard that journalists never write their own headlines, which you can see clearly with the link above.

Responsible journalism, wow...that would be nice!

The next great depression....are we on the edge of the abyss?

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 14:14:46 -0500

There has been allot of talk recently about recession, the end of the mortgage industry as we know it, and let's be honest, key word searches on economic depressions are at an all time high. The big question is what's really going on with our economy, and are we collectively up the creek without a paddle.

I've recently received an excellent email from someone who works at a major bank, and they privately expressed their worries about the current crisis, and she complimented one of my previous articles in regards to this matter. The big question that everyone collectively is attempting to answer at this time is what's going to happen next!

Americans, and I can say myself, are not the type to be patient when it comes to complicated situations. I think our 30 second news snippet culture is not handling the current news well because there is simply not a thirty second answer to this dilemma. Is there going to be a recession, depression or financial cataclysm that forces us all back into the 18th century? Probably unlikely and here is why.

In the 1920's and 1930's you do have a striking similar runup on commitidies, stocks, and the free use of credit ot the point that it imploded through the 1930's. But there were a number of other issues that caused that generation to take much longer then a similar scenario in todays world.

Factors that they dealt with then, the Gold Standard, different Tax structure, slow reacting federal reserve policy, FDR changing policy several times in regards to the federal response. Keynesian economics suggested they spend their way out of the depression, where FDR attempted to balance the federal budget which at the time made the situation worse. The main problem was the lack of liquidity in the banking industry and subsequent tax policy of the federal government during the 1930's. The marginal tax rates for anyone with investments was through the roof, which of course discouraged reinvestment in industry and commerce.

Currently we're going through a major adjustment after incredible growth for the past 28 years. This is normal folks! Every historical economy goes through a period of adjustment after this type of growth. Let's not fool ourselves at this point as well. If we're not careful there is the chance that we could push ourselves over the abyss. If people begin hoarding cash and food, if people in general stop purchasing items at stores, if people stop driving their vehicles, if people stop supporting financial institutions, yes you will have a self full filling prophecy occur. Here are the reasons why I think we're not heading for financial disaster.

#1 The Federal Reserve is doing a marvelous job at mitigating the current crisis. It's the media I think that's to blame for much of the overreaction. You want and example, just flip between CNBC and Fox Business and you'll see a dramatic differnce. CNBC is in crisis mode any time someone mentions financial news, while I've noticed Fox attempting to keep things from getting over dramatic.

#2 From what I can see, new constructions have been greatly reduced across the board. This means that inventory is now being picked up. The bargain deals will continue for the immediate future, but the bottom is close in a number of markets throughout the country. What your seeing with liquidity and inventory are not always the same. Banks are now efficiently in most cases dumping the bad paper and there are opportunity funds opening up all over the place that are snapping up these homes and then reselling them for a profit.

#3 Manufacturing and retail have not taken a beating like everyone thought. Manufacturing is actually flourishing due to the weakened dollar. GM and the auto dealers maybe have a problem, but that's mostly from higher gas prices. When they eventually move over to hybrid technologies you'll see a major upswing in their profits. Retail has not slid much in the past six months. A major recession or depression would be dampening this type of spending throughout the country. Now these industries can be affected greatly by any changes in the market, but the biggest market depression is in financials'.

#4 One major difference between our economy and the economy of the 1930's is we're top heavy in service related industries. in the 1930's other countries had to buy our goods, in the 2000's we have farmed most of this to other countries. In fact, the other countries need our consumers to buy their goods! The rest of the world isn't doing as well as they were a few months ago, there is worry in China, India and other HOT economies that the peak has been already attained, and they are in for a rough adjustment in the next year or two. China specifically after the Olympics is in for some rough times, which will push the Chinese to produce their products at cheaper margins, which means the US buyer continues to receive a good bargain.

Interesting aside...China in my mind is allot like 1930's United States. They've had recent hyper inflation in their stock market, and they've banked on being the worlds manufacturer. The difference is they will subsidize their markets through the Communicst government. It makes it harder for the uber-rich to hoard income, but it could create a whole group of problems we've never witnessed in the US.

#5 Technologies, Medical care, and other industries have not taken hit's like the financials. Frankly our economy is much bigger, much more diverse, and able to take hit's like we've taken in the financial sector. Really I don't see the entire ball of wax melting away before our eyes.

I'm not trying to be a Pollyanna, but we're far from a depression. What concerns me is this upcoming election and who controls tax policy in the years to come. It's looking like a Democrat victory, and that could foretell some serious problems for our economy in the next few years.

If only I was president, I would.................

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 18:17:23 -0500

To beign with, I'm a red as they come Republican. I've voted for every Republican cannidate since I could vote in 1988. I understand why Republicans feel government messes up everything it touches, so the following possible solution to our current energy crisis maybe considered liberal to some extent, but something needs to be done.

If I was president, I'd suggest the following...

1) I would release 50% of the strategic oil reserves into the US market. I wouldn't announce it ahead of time, I'd just do it quickly and without much fanfare. Those investors caught in the middle would just have to deal with the consequences. So they lose allot of money, I really don't care. Bottom line, most of the recent cost of a barrel of oil is a result of rampant speculation and not so much demand. I do believe the Saudi's when they state oil should be at $70-80 a barrel.

2) I would then ask congress for one of two actions. Either they reduce immeadiately the 15% federal tax on gasoline, or they subsidize the costs of diesel fuel. This rampant cost of diesel is having a heavy toll on food costs, and either we give the average american a break at the pump, or we keep his food prices down by subsiding diesel fuel. For you who think the market is more important then life itself, think about this for a second. The market has one hand tied behind it's back by the fed's. First it can't produce more within the United states, second, the competition in other countries is subsidising the cost of energy for their own citizens and economies. So either we eleminate the tax, which I like, or we absolutely have to subsidise the trucking industry to keep these costs from killing the economy.

3) This one is really going to tick the GOP side off, but we need to cut the speed limit down to 60 MPH, or 55 MPH once again. You do save gas if you drive your car at 55-60 MPH, its a fact and if significant number of US drivers began driving again below that 55-60 threshold, you would see a national decline in gasoline consumption. Not only would this save the average guy some money, but it would also push the Arab's to eventually drop oil prices like they did in the 1980's. Demand goes down, so do prices.

4) We also push congress to pass on significant research and development tax deductions for any companies that conduct legitimate alternative energy research. Furthermore, once legitimate sources of energy are found, then the government would subsidize these sources until fully developed. Unless of course they would affect other resources, such as food. In other words, the subsidy for ethanol was ridiculous and should be repealed!

5) I would push for drilling off the American coasts and in Anwar. Concerns about environmental impact's would be addressed, however, this issue would be hammered, and hammered again, until it passes. A would request that a comprehnsive campaign be put in place to educate the American public about modern drilling capacity and the new technology that will help keep the environment safe.

6) Finally, I would institute a tariff on any oil imported to the United states that falls under a certain level determined by the US producers cost of production. In other words, if oil cost's $90.00 a barrel to produce in the United States, then any Oil shipped to the US that falls under that price level would be heavily taxed. In other words, the Arabs couldn't destroy our petroleum producers like they did in the mid 1980's. Furthermore, I would also tarrif goods and services from China, India and Mexico. If these countries continue to subsidise the costs of oil within their economies, then a corresponding tarriff on imported goods should be levied against these countries. Yes, it would hurt retail sales in the United States in the short run, but it would help to reduce the oil consumption in some of these countries. If you want to claim that the markets should be FREE, then they should be FREE in every country and not just in the United States.

So six easy steps......yeah if I was only president....LOL!!!

And some didn't think Europe would feel any pain....

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 09:46:54 -0500

Reality is that when the worlds #1 consumer spending economy takes it in the chin, the rest of the world is soon to follow. As the United States has delt with one of the most severe deflationary real estate spirals in recent history, Europe and Asia have not witnessed slow downs as of yet in their economies. But they are now facing a big problem, and in some ways it maybe a temporary answer to the energy price problem in the states.

An interesting article I read this morning <ARTICLE> points out that Europe and Asia are about to get hammered with their own debt and credit crisis. It doesn't mean that the crisis in the United States will get much better, but it does point out that the Euro's are in for some really hard times.

The silver lining in this mess is that 2009 should be great for energy and commodity prices. With a huge reduction in demand there will be little justification for investors to keep their money in oil futures. As general commoditie prices subside, so well the threat of inflation. The big questions are how many employers will be able to hold on another 12 months in the United States. Unfortunately they're is going to be a large spike in unemployment before this market get's better, which of course means the real estate market isn't going to see a healthy bounce for some time either. Those who thought the real estate market would rebound by the end of 2008 may have been too optomistic.

Here is one that is hoping that if oil goes down significantly in 2009 and that the US consumer will feel confident in purchasing real estate.

Is Tim Russert coverage over the top?

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 08:51:36 -0500

It interesting watching the media mourn one of their own. Tim Russert has become an icon in political coverage and journalism. He was well respected among his peers and those whom followed his career. Personally I enjoyed hearing Russerts analysis during election events or watching Meet The Press. One thing I repsected was Russerts ability to protray neutrality in terms of issues, even though you knew he was a democrat.

What bothers me though is the over the top coverage of this guys life by NBC and it's affliates. Sure, I know journalists are people too, and they need to grieve. But making this guy into a SAINT, and giving his death more media attention then a death of a head of state is going to far!

It is true that NBC can broadcast anything it desires. It's nice that people cared so much for Tim and his life. But the critical question must be asked, was Tim more important then a head of state? Was his life more important then those at risk in Iowa in terms of recent flooding? How can you justify hours upon hours of non stop coverage of his death? No journalistic Icon has received this much coverage for his death.

Soon Walter Cronkite will make his exit from this life as well. Will CBS dedicate days of coverage to his life and funeral as well? Most likely he will receive tributes throughout his industry. Perhaps even documentaries will be aired in his honor, however, non stop coverage of his death will probably not be the case.

Finally, Russert would have not been happy with the over the top coverage of his life as well. Fundamentally most journalist understand the need to not be the story and I'm sure Tim would have objected if he could to this over the top coverage.

Is dumping half the stategic petroleum reserve worth considering?

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 19:49:01 -0500

If you've been watching O'Reilly (June 12) this eveningm then hopefully you watched his interview of former speaker of the house, Newt Gingrich. Let me say this for Newt, if he's not a serious consideration for president in 2012, then I'm moving to another country. The guy just makes allot of sense.

The main point of this interview was Bill asking Newt what he'd focus on if he was John McCain. Newt pointed out that McCain needs to focus on "GAS" right now. It's going to be the biggest issue by November, far out weighing Iraq. Obama is fixated on attacking McCain's Iraq policies and neither candidate at this point has had a clue on how to get their hands around the current oil crisis.

Newt made three good points. First of all we need to dump 1/2 of the strategic reserves on the open market, and we need to do it NOW. Would this solve the long term problem, not for one second. But it would put a serious dent in the speculator market, and as most markets go, the speculation to sell short might actually be more of a good play for investors then pushing prices higher. This would at least cause prices to drop for a short time.

Second, we need to have congress and the Senate push through requirements that all vehicles be modified to accepted blended fuels. Probably phase out all non-blended vehicles by a certain year, but it atleast get's the ball rolling.

Finally, we need to really get off this evironmental terror ride we're on at this time. Anwar, our coastal waters and the rocky mountains are not going to be destroyed with advanced drilling and refining technology's. These congressmen need to get some serious attention from voters and not just lobbyists at this juncture. We need scare these congressmen into believing that voters could easily end their adventure in Washington D.C. before any lobbyist. Perhaps $4 and $5 dollar gasoline will get the average joe to get off his couch and figure out that the Democrats are selling his future down the river. The problem is your average working blue collar stiff is the one who's getting their incomes ripped by these ridiculous gas prices. Mean while the Democratic nominee is telling everyone that $4 dollar gas isn't so bad, it's just too bad it happened so quickly! Can you say OUT OF TOUCH!!

Somone help, I'm so depressed about the upcoming elections.

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 16:07:34 -0500

I used to love politics. Sure it can be rough, and I haven't met many politicians that can keep a promise longer then they can tie their shoes. But atleast you felt that you always had a choice. This election is making me sick to my stomach.

In one corner you have a die in the wool Democrat, with all his liberal trimmings. He's big on taxes, social spending, reducing the military, and loves to throw big words like "hope" around. But in the other corner is what I like to refer to as "Democrat Lite". McCain is becoming more liberal by the minute as this election moves along.

I know...you have to move to the center to run as president. But wasn't McCain already in the center? Now he's left of center and rapidly heading farther left as we progress into the summer. They are talking about Veep candidates, and guess who's now at the top of the list....freaking Bloomberg!! SAY WHAT!!!

I'm seriously thinking of taking election day off this year. Every four years I get so pumped for election day, but perhaps it's time to book a vacation (out of the country) this time! I just don't see where a McCain presidency is going to be that much better then an Obama presidency.

If it wasn't for one issue - IRAQ - I'd have abandoned McCains camp long ago. But it really irks me that I have at this time no other option but to put my support behind this poor immitation of a Republican. Please, somone help me drink the Republican cool-aid this year, because Bob Barr is looking better and better every day!

Does anyone really understand whats going on with the economy??

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 17:28:21 -0500

This week is just one example of how ridiculous the global markets are these days. First comes a report that the stimulus package is working for retail sales....Hurrah!!! Then today we hear about poor labor numbers....DEPRESSION!!! Oh come on already!!! I loved this article off of bloomberg today...Article

Then in regards to oil prices spiking today. Can you say...AN EXCUSE TO JACK UP THE MARKET ALL YE SICKO OIL INVESTORS....Yes, it's another case of using any type of news as an excuse to jack up the price of oil. The problem is the price is unsustainable, just like the real estate market was two years ago.

The question of the day, "Should we feel sorry for all those suckers investing in Oil commodities"?

Yeah right!!! When the market does turn all I'm going to do is laugh outloud and say, "burn baby burn"....

My 200th Blog Post on Active Rain...

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 21:25:04 -0500

I write about politics, real estate, mortgages, financial planning, the state of the economy. I've also typed out motivational posts, and sometimes just posts that vent my current state of mind. So why should I change with my 200th post. So here it goes....

What is the difference between optimism and pessimism? Is it heathy to be either, or is it better to have alittle of each?

First let's define optimism.... perhaps its simply an outlook on life such that one maintains a view of the world as a positive place. Sometimes there is what is known as over optimism, or a tendency for people to overestimate the likelihood of good things happening rather than bad things. Finally there are those whom enjoy letting others know how optimistic they are and how lacking this trait is in those around them.

Pessimism is the exact oppossite by most accounts. Pessemists often do not believe in the inherit good of all men, and are more often apt to believe that bad things will happen more often than good things. Finally, pessemists can get under anyones skin due to the often negative outlook of current and future events.

So is there a better way of being. Can you still believe that this real estate market is in bad shape but still see the good? Are there way's to protect yourself but still fully participate and enrich ones life?

I like this philosphers point of view... Antonio Gramsci stated, "pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will", in other words, reality spurs one to action, in the belief that your action will bring about meaningful change". Awesome message in these words and ones that I believe myself.

So if you hear of bad news about the economy. Don't bury your head in the sand and claim it's not happening. Don't panic like a deer in the headlights. Let it spur you to action, let it push you to excell and overcome the obstacles and find those opportunities that are always available.

Hope this is a fitting post for number 200!!

Interesting article on the real estate bubble.....must read!

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 20:04:09 -0500

I'm not sure there are many that would disagree that our economic system is in serious need of an over haul. But serious over hauls can be exteremly painful. The following article I stumbled across while searching for the estimated value of the US real estate market. But I think most of you will find the writers observations to be interesting if not somewhat scary.

The doom and gloomers have been predicting depression for some time, they maybe correct ultimately, but the question is WHEN???

Real Estate Bubble Article

An old source of Energy getting new life

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 18:41:03 -0500

Hydrogen! You know, that perodic table substance that is easy to remember. It's also the first component in Water, and yes it's cheap, abundant and actually researchers have been tinkering with it for years.

Why isn't it being used in mass now? That's a really good question. I guess the simple reason is that technological reserach takes money, and with Gas and Oil so easily accessible why worry about it. The other factor maybe simply fear. Yep, if your not familiar with the Hindenburg, then a short history lesson is in order.

The D-LZ2129 Hidenburg was built in 1936, and operated for more then a year until May 6th of 1937. Then in a nasty explosion it was destroyed by sparks that were accelerated by allunimum power that was coated on the inside and outside of it's frame. Normally Hydrogen did not ignite easily, and the aluminum and other factors, which you can read about "Hindenburg", were the cause of the disaster. But for years there has been this overwhelming hysteria regarding the disaster and the roll of hydrogen.

Hydrogen still needs to be produced, it's much like electricity but there are a number of ways to harvest naturally produced hydrogen. There are also many different ways to utilize hydrogen, either as a gas, or through solids that when heated will emit the gas.

As I've stated before, this country abounds with those whom can see beyond todays headlines. Necessity is the mother of all invention, and though we are dependent at present on fossil fuels, the reality is that we'll never slip back into the stone age. We're always by our very nature going to find new solutions to present day problems.

What we need more then hope in America is "FAITH". Faith that we can overcome any obstacle that presents itself. Hope is weak! Faith is strength. My faith is proven when I donate or invest in companies that produce these alternative fuel sources.

Oh yes..before I forget...Hydrogen is also safe for the environment in most cases...sorry, don't want to upset the Greenies!!

Here is a good article about Hydrogen Fuel

Will the next real GOP conservative leader please stand !!

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 01:40:54 -0500

Listening to Rush Limbaugh this morning, one caller really had my wheels turning. Basically it was in regards to who are the rising talent in the GOP. Who would lead the party after the disaster that is looming this election. Here are some interesting Republican possiblities and it almost makes me want to suggest a new reality show..."The next American Conservative", or " Who's the next Ronald Regan". You would of course get very little attention from the mainline media, but it's time for someone to really pick up the mantle in 2012!

Here are the safe bet's to pull the party out of it's funk....

Newt Gingrich (GA) His website

my personal favorite is Newt, but the press can be a vicious animal, and past issues with his ex-wife could be a problem.

Mitt Romney (Where ever), doing everything a supporter of the party can do after losing in a primary. My fear is that he may accept the VP nod at this summer convention, if so then he'll have one heck of a time proving he's a winner.

Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota), great guy, popular, but how conservative is he really? He's from Minnesota folks!

Bobby Jindal (LA) Seems to be the odd's on favorite, but do we know enough about him yet? Is he the Republican Obama?

Seasoning required

Nick Ayers (GA) Rising Star In GA

This guy looks great, but he needs some seasoning!

Kevin McCarthy (California) Rising Star

Another up and comer. Plus he looks like a Clinton-like campaigner, something Republicans have not done well in recent campaigns.

Future Players or support players....

Maybe someday

Don't know most of these folks, but maybe we'll here their names in the future.

So did I leave anyone out? Would an American Idol reality show starring conservative Republicans just be out of control....I know, crazy as it sounds there is a real vacuum right now in the Republican party and someone needs to step up and lead this tired old party.

Drill here, Drill now, pay less

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Fri, 30 May 2008 10:33:35 -0500

This myopia on the left is going to kill our economy! We need to use our own resources and that means the Democrats need to hear loud and clear from the American people, "DRILL HERE, DRILL NOW".

The green movement is all fine and good, but it won't put food on the table, it won't pay those high gas bills. So even the greenie's need to think about why were not tapping our resources at this time.

Please sign this petition.....Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less

URGENT RESPONSE OF AGENTS & MORTGAGE BROKERS NEEDED!!!

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 11:16:37 -0500

I was just made aware of a serious issue that most likely has been discussed already on ActiveRain. But for anyone who is not aware, there is little time now to respond to an issue that could have severe implications in our industry.

http://capwiz.com/namb/issues/alert/?alertid=11307271

Please view the link above, and think about the consequence of an appraisers not having the purchase contract. This will be a paperwork nightmare of offers, counteroffers, and further admended offers after initial agreement upon a transaction.

Please follow the instructions in the Link or write your own response. If real estate agents and mortgage professionals unite on this issue, then perhaps they can go back to the drawing board and come up with a better solution to the appraisal issues that plague this industry.

Simply the best credit restoration specialist in the country......

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 15:12:54 -0500

I've written a number of blogs on credit repair or restoration, and I have the pleasure of referring one of the premier credit restoration specialists that I've ever known. The fact is that Steve Paige may indeed be one of the industry's premier experts when it comes to credit matters. The following is an exert from his new web service, and one that I highly endorse...

Please check out his website...

RESCORE AND MORE

Steve Z. Paige is by far the nation’s leading credit pathologist who founded three of the nation’s largest credit repair firms. After discovering the inherent flaws of credit repair, Steve revolutionized the approach to consumer credit issues by focusing on credit ReScoring techniques rather than credit report manipulation and repair, the results of which produce far greater benefits— for less money.

You gotta be worried if you live in LA county....

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 15:02:43 -0500

327% Foreclosure increase from 2007 in LA county

Can you say.....OUCH.....

This reminds me of 1995 and 1996 in the Palm Springs market. I remember speaking to home owners that told me these incredible stories of homes that people walked away from in droves. Now the problem may even be much worse, but that doesn't surprise me.

Let's be intellectually honest at this point. Who's really to blame? Is it really the lenders? Is it really the borrowers? Or is it a combination of many factors, which I tend to believe. The problem is it didn't happen over night, and like we're seeing in the commodity market, the pressure to continually expand is always present in the capitalistic systems of economy.

The big debate now is do we bail these people out who made these decisions to buy homes in markets like LA county. The easy way is to blame these buyer's, and while we sit in our 150k home in suburban Kansas, make those Los Angeles Californian buyers into evil greedy people. The reality is if your living in Los Angeles in 2004, and your job is in Los Angeles, and your family lives in Los Angeles, not buying your home in Los Angeles seems like the most ridiculous idea. The other problem is your being blasted by media, financial guru's, the government and our family that buying a home is paramount to the American dream. Long term most of these sources of advice are correct, buying a home is not a bad LONG term investment. The problem in California, Phoenix, Florida and other high speculative markets is that GREED does come into play. But to blame the average homeowner who lives, works and plays in that community is ridiculous. The real person to blame is the "SPECULATOR"!

Speculators are often you and me or friends or family. They've been with us since the conception of this country and long before. I wouldn't even say that "Speculators" are an actual class of people, rather a temporary state of psychosis that exists until severely beaten down. In other words, Speculation is what eventually killed our market, and in addition the over construction of many of these markets. The real evil doers in my mind are these "investment" companies that have been created to mine these speculators of most of their hard earned cash. In other words in the name of education, they pitch incredible stories of riches that are attainable by anyone and in any market. Now these vultures are being exposed by state regulatory and federal agencies, but wait long enough and there will be a whole new group preying on another industry.

One thing that makes me not worry at night is the following. "what goes up must come down", and "what comes down will go up", so patience everyone, usually you know your at the end of a down cycle when there is very little good news. If you've paid attention to the Wall Street media, the talk is already becoming more positive in regards to our hitting the bottom in terms of real estate. What the new media never covers is how many people are still making their mortgage payments and how many American's are still able to buy and sell houses. Perhaps a little balance in the media in regards to this economy would be the real answer to our ailing spirit.

Has anyone heard of this company...The Federated Group

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 10:53:15 -0500

Heard about this amazing financing source for mega jumbo loans. Received the information off of the Grapevine at BrokerUniverse.com, we actually have a client whom can meet the minimum requirement for reserves. My partner and I have found very little through the better business bureau or the internet regarding this company. Any additional information would be helpful.

The Federated Capital Group

Please let us know if you've worked with them in the past....thanks....

FHA is the new sub-prime

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 00:33:33 -0500

This may put a hop and skip into some of your steps. A loan program that I've totally ignored in my 12 plus years of originating is now one I have adopted with open arms. It's called FHA, and frankly it's awesome. How many of you who are still loyal to Fannie or Freddie can claim they can still do loans for those with 525 FICO's....Guess what....you can in certain circumstances is you push it through FHA.

We're close to closing on a 525,000 FHA (previous Jumbo), and their score is only 525. They are going to get a 7% rate, and the cash-out basically washes all their debt. So now it's FHA on the line if they don't pay.

Isn't America great!!!

One caveat though...they actually qualify for the loan in terms of their income, that's one huge difference between FHA and "stated/stated" sub-prime.

Is Al Gore and the Green movement just hot air??

Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group) — Sun, 23 Mar 2008 00:39:51 -0500

You've gotta love Al Gore and his crowd. Their still screaming to the world that we're using up our earth's resources, and we're doomed to be cooked in our own juices. But a number of these same avowed carbon footprint advocates are themselves glorified abusers of everything they claim is wrong with America.

But now there are scientists...yes...die in the wool, REAL scientists, that are not paid by the Petroleum industry, who are now claiming that Al and his crowd are full of hot air. First there was a Russian astro-physicist that suggested the sun is responsible for global warming or cooling and not green house gases. Now there are more like this scientist in Texas, Baliunas article, who suggests the sun has much more of an effect then your carbon footprint!

Ok..that's one article, then do your own research or read the following article from down under...Australian science article . I guess this scientist is also part of some global petroleum conspiracy to warm the planet.

I know it's not politically correct to claim this green house hysteria is all bunk, but in reality there is a HUGE political agenda that is pushing the global warming agenda. They were the same group which pushed the Anti-nuke hysteria in the 1980's, and they will find other causes to push when everyone realizes they were scammed with this global warming bilge.

What makes me sick is how real estate professionals in all phases of our industry are joining this colophany of misinformation. Some of these purveyors of this biased science are in reality good people, but whom have spent little time educating themselves in regards to the reality of global warming. Then there are the true believers, whom no matter how many fact's you present them, they'll still deny it until a glacier slides into their backyard. But then there are the real slick marketers, who care little about mother earth, but are only interested in one type of green...yep..your money.

Now for those whom think I'm being thick headed, harsh, cruel, or irresponsible, I want you to understand this one fact. There is nothing wrong with conservation, taking care of the environment, being nice to animals, plants, and fellow human beings. Who wants to drink polluted water? Or tropical forests destroyed, or people suffer in typhoons, hurricanes or other disasters. But let's not lie to ourselves and shut off our brains to the fact that we simply understand very little when it comes to this big planet we live upon. And for those whom are attempting to cash in on this new religion of global warming...SHAME ON YOU!!