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inflation: Are we really headed for a deflationary spiral? - 11/20/08 01:11 PM
This is a good question if you read today's headlines.  Jeff Belonger also wrote a great article about Deflation and Inflation and why we should be worried about a deflationary depression.  The big difference between 1929 and today is who will be in charge of the government over the next four years.
My worry right now is that we're actually going to see a inflationary spiral that we haven't seen except in third world countries in the 1980's.  When I was a teenager, I remember news reports of Argentina or Mexico going through incredible inflationary spirals.  I also remember studying post … (2 comments)

inflation: Doom and Gloomers need to do their math.... - 07/15/08 02:05 AM
interesting comment caused me to pull out my calculator and history book.  The fear right now is that bank failures are at levels similar to the Depression of 1930.  The reality is that it's not even close to 1930's levels.  Second, during the 1930-1940 time period, the banks lost over 140 Billion dollars.  In today's dollars that would be worth 1.86 Trillion dollars (CPI CALCULATOR).
So now that would be pretty big number in today's financial markets, and we're going to hit that mark fairly soon with the current losses suffered by Indy Mac.  But there is also the factor of … (3 comments)

inflation: Interesting article on the real estate bubble.....must read! - 06/05/08 08:04 PM
I'm not sure there are many that would disagree that our economic system is in serious need of an over haul. But serious over hauls can be exteremly painful.  The following article I stumbled across while searching for the estimated value of the US real estate market.  But I think most of you will find the writers observations to be interesting if not somewhat scary. 
The doom and gloomers have been predicting depression for some time, they maybe correct ultimately, but the question is WHEN???
 
Real Estate Bubble Article
… (10 comments)

inflation: Has oil peaked and what does it mean for rates - 11/13/07 11:58 AM
In my previous article's I posted about rising oil prices and how speculation was one of the primary motivators for rising costs.  Now their are articles coming out this morning that confirm this article.  Oil Prices Drop
I'm sure it's more complicated then pure speculation, however the old supply and demand rules still apply. And one thing most media hounds don't account for is that when you put too much pressure on prices, then other options open up and then demand is reduced. Which means prices drop!!!
Now will the good news on oil dropping really affect rates at this point.  Probably won't … (3 comments)

 
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Karl Christen

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