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The Daily Bond Report - 07/31/08 02:03 PM
Thursday, July 31, 2008 I have a real problem accepting the price of gas when once again Exxon reported record profits... they did miss what analyst expected though. Off my soapbox. The second quarter GDP rose 1.9%, nearly doubling last quarter, but less than the 2% analysts were hoping for. Sounds good to many, but some are worried that the economic Stimulus package was more to thank than the economy actually growing, leading to much weaker numbers in the next quarter. In a direction opposite to yesterdays ADP report, initial jobless claims rose to 448,000 last week, the highest since April (0 comments)
The Daily Bond Report - 07/30/08 12:24 PM
Wednesday, July 30, 2008 Let's start with the bad news and work our way to good. Mortgage applications dropped 14.1% to levels not seen since 2000, with purchase applications down 7.8%. This is understandable in our ever tightening loan market. With rates up and concerns on inflation being the biggest reason, the best action is to have rates go down and hope the inflation hype relaxes. On to the good news. Today we had a set of positive signs for investors for both the bond and stocks. This month's ADP jobs report came in with an expected gain of 9,000 jobs (0 comments)
The Daily Bond Report - 07/29/08 01:17 PM
Tuesday, July 29, 2008 When bad news goes good... bonds took a slight nosedive today after investment bank Merrill Lynch said late Monday it would take a $5.7 billion write-down and sell off $30 billion in mortgage backed securities (MBS) this quarter.... At 1/5th their face value. They are doing this, along $8.5 billion through the issuance of new stock, just to bring the write-down to only $5.7 Billion. If I were an investor I would dump all I had in MBS and get in line for this fire sale. Also in the bad, good, and ugly, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (0 comments)
The Daily Bond - 07/28/08 01:49 PM
Monday, July 28, 2008 Today is a sure float day... for now. With a number of economic reports due out this week, today's happy bond day is due to the sad stock day. Thankfully oil is in a holding pattern even though there was a small bombing issue on one of the pipelines. What is really giving a boost today is not only the approval of the new housing bill, but that the president is also expected to sign it. The latest addition will not only extend the ability for the Federal government to lend money to Freddie and Fannie, but (1 comments)
The daily Bond Report - 07/22/08 12:47 PM
Lock. Lock. Lock. Did I mention that you should have your clients lock today? With Oil below $127, gold down more than $17 today and stocks only on a modest gain, it would sound like a great day for the bond market. Unless of course more bad media came out today on the 2 big Mac's today. Which Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson did today when he told congress that they needed to pass funding for them before it's too late. You know I have been occasionally called a doom and gloom guy (talking to you Steve), but even would I know better (0 comments)
The Daily Bond Report - 07/21/08 01:02 PM
Monday, July 21, 2008 Someone find a pulse on the bond. After last weeks tumble, the bond is laying flat today hoping for some better news. With banks posting better than expected losses (that right a good loss), and Junes Leading Economic Indicators dropping only .1%, investors are having a hard time buying anything today. Ading wet wood to the fire Forty-five percent of economists believe the economy will either not grow or will come in at a small 1% pace in the last six months of this year, according the National Association for Business Economics just released. With last month's (0 comments)
The Daily Bond Report - 07/18/08 01:55 PM
Wednesday, July 16, 2008 The one thing you can count on when you take time off is that whatever can go wrong will. Earnings reports have been coming out this week, and as expected the losses were major. The interesting part is that they were not as major as expected. Today was no exception. Citigroup came out today reporting their losses $2.5 Billion for the last quarter, beating analysts' estimates of $3.6 billion. With the losses less than expected, investors believe the wave of mortgage defaults are on the wane and the end of the mortgage mess is near. Remember investors (0 comments)
The Daily Bond Report - 07/16/08 01:19 PM
Wednesday, July 16, 2008 yea, it's been a lock day. Most of the market news making the DOW shooting up was based not on companies reporting record profit, but rather loosing less than expected. I am a big fan of finding the silver lining in mushroom cloud that has been the market lately, and it seems that the rest of the market is taking the same approach today. Big Ben is on the hill again today making sure that everyone knows Freddie and Fannie are not going to fail or be taken over by the government. Also making the news today (0 comments)
The Daily Bond Report - 07/14/08 12:15 PM
Monday, July 14, 2008 Latre Friday had some major market moving news come out after the markets closed, which followed through the weekend with fed meetings. Late Friday Indymac officially imploded and fell under the umbrella of the federal government. That Whole FDIC insured sticker on the window came into play and clients with more than $100,000 are now wondering what to do. Over the weekend the Federal Reserve and white house both set down plans on how to shore up the Freddie/Fannie issue, leading to an initial gain and then downturn in stocks. Add to that Bush ending lifting the (2 comments)
Friday, July 11, 2008 And so it goes again. The bond started off on a very good note today up almost 60Bp toucing the 100 & 200 day moving average. All signs pointed to yes today and then... Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson came out this morning with a short and not too sweet speech about how they were going to do something about Freddie and Fannie's financial crises. The not too sweet part was not explaining the when and how of it. This initially hurt the Dow bringing it down well over 200 points and putting it below 11,000 for (0 comments)
Pre-daily Bond - 07/11/08 11:05 AM
If you have a pulse odds are you have heard the Freddie fannie news. The bond has just turned negative. Although it may be short lived, if you have an accepted contract, i would have your clients lock to be safe. More to come in the bond report.
Karl Menzer http://www.karlmenzer.com (0 comments)
The Daily Bond Report - 07/10/08 11:31 AM
Foreclosures are up, the dollar is gaining strength, and John Mayer admitted to a fling with a fan. Hey in this emotional market, anything can change the tide. The biggest market movers today are Retired St. Louis Fed President William Poole's comments on how Freddie and Fannie are basically done and the government is propping them up (your retired dude act it), and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee basically stating the exact opposite of what Willy said. No wonder the bond is bouncing around today. The DOW is on a tech rally so we need (0 comments)
The Daily Bond Report - 07/09/08 02:34 PM
Wednesday, July 09, 2008 Iran would test a missile that would reach Israel? Really?... Although I don't see the surprise, investors did and retreated from the Dow today. They initially moved to oil, but then the Bond Gods shined down and gave us a massive drop in the Dow and oil seemed to settle. Finally, the market is moving like it is supposed to do. When worries arise, the bond is the safety net everyone climbs under. Although the FNMA 5.5% is only up 42 Bp, the real test is that it passed the 50 day moving average. Without much meat (0 comments)
JOB MARKET Weekly Jobless claims Jumped 16,000 from the previous week, along with beating estimates by 24,000. Unemployment nationally stayed the same, but with the number of layoffs announced this week it is expected to take a small rise in July. A sure sign that oil is hurting the auto industry and banking is still in the slumps, just take a quick look at the headlines and you will see companies like GM and Indy Mac dramatically reducing their workforce. Locally, we are still way below the nation with 3.2% unemployment and a job growth of 1.4% in Utah. A (0 comments)
Daily Bond Report - 07/08/08 02:14 PM
The late fear yesterday was that both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were in trouble and needed to raise some fast cash to stay afloat. With mortgage backed securities starting with FNMA, although the market was primed for better rates, no one seemed to be able to get past that. It almost made the fact that Indy Mac was shutting its lending side seem trivial. Today the news (and bonds) is better. With the Fed coming out stating that they would do whatever it would take to fix this and Freddie and Fannie both saying that it was overstated, rates are (0 comments)
The daily Bond Report - 07/07/08 12:02 PM
Monday, July 07, 2008 Look up, look down, look all around.... Most of us remember how the last line goes, and it is about the same with mortgage backed securities today. The bond was down as much as 38 Bp when I started writing this article today... then it rebounded up 17 Bp, and now it is up 7 Bp for the day and 31 Bo since rate sheets came out. Without any major economic news today, the bond is taking the lead form the DOW and oil today. With the down giving up its earnings today and oil (thankfully) below (2 comments)
The Daily Bond Report - 07/01/08 01:08 PM
Tuesday, July 01, 2008 For those of you who had the joy of living through the punk rock scene in the 80's you may remember a band called FEAR that had this lovely little ditty called "let's have a war". It seems like today the main market mover is the fear of just that. With Israel more comfortable pushing for war, while Bush is still in office, with Iran over the threat of nuclear weapons, like the ones that Israel has, oil is once again taking center stage. Add to this of a signed military budget that resembled more of WW (1 comments)
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