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daily bond report: Daily Bond Report - 08/08/08 01:36 PM
Friday, August 08, 2008
With Fannie Mae announcing that their second quarter earnings were three times less than what analysts expected and their CEO stating that they are expecting it to get worse, it would seem logical that the bond and stock market would follow past trends and would both tank... ummm no. Both the bond and stock market has rallied on from what can only be explained as an oil hangover. Oil has fallen down to the $116 range dropping almost $4 today. Now if they will just drop the price of gas as fast as they raise it (that … (1 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond Report - 07/29/08 01:17 PM
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
When bad news goes good... bonds took a slight nosedive today after investment bank Merrill Lynch said late Monday it would take a $5.7 billion write-down and sell off $30 billion in mortgage backed securities (MBS) this quarter.... At 1/5th their face value. They are doing this, along $8.5 billion through the issuance of new stock, just to bring the write-down to only $5.7 Billion. If I were an investor I would dump all I had in MBS and get in line for this fire sale. Also in the bad, good, and ugly, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index … (0 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond - 07/28/08 01:49 PM
Monday, July 28, 2008
Today is a sure float day... for now. With a number of economic reports due out this week, today's happy bond day is due to the sad stock day. Thankfully oil is in a holding pattern even though there was a small bombing issue on one of the pipelines. What is really giving a boost today is not only the approval of the new housing bill, but that the president is also expected to sign it. The latest addition will not only extend the ability for the Federal government to lend money to Freddie and Fannie, but … (1 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond Report - 07/18/08 01:55 PM
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
The one thing you can count on when you take time off is that whatever can go wrong will. Earnings reports have been coming out this week, and as expected the losses were major. The interesting part is that they were not as major as expected. Today was no exception. Citigroup came out today reporting their losses $2.5 Billion for the last quarter, beating analysts' estimates of $3.6 billion. With the losses less than expected, investors believe the wave of mortgage defaults are on the wane and the end of the mortgage mess is near. Remember investors … (0 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond Report - 07/14/08 12:15 PM
Monday, July 14, 2008
Latre Friday had some major market moving news come out after the markets closed, which followed through the weekend with fed meetings. Late Friday Indymac officially imploded and fell under the umbrella of the federal government. That Whole FDIC insured sticker on the window came into play and clients with more than $100,000 are now wondering what to do. Over the weekend the Federal Reserve and white house both set down plans on how to shore up the Freddie/Fannie issue, leading to an initial gain and then downturn in stocks. Add to that Bush ending lifting the … (2 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond Report - 07/10/08 11:31 AM
Foreclosures are up, the dollar is gaining strength, and John Mayer admitted to a fling with a fan. Hey in this emotional market, anything can change the tide. The biggest market movers today are Retired St. Louis Fed President William Poole's comments on how Freddie and Fannie are basically done and the government is propping them up (your retired dude act it), and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee basically stating the exact opposite of what Willy said. No wonder the bond is bouncing around today. The DOW is on a tech rally so we need … (0 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond Report - 07/09/08 02:34 PM
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Iran would test a missile that would reach Israel? Really?... Although I don't see the surprise, investors did and retreated from the Dow today. They initially moved to oil, but then the Bond Gods shined down and gave us a massive drop in the Dow and oil seemed to settle. Finally, the market is moving like it is supposed to do. When worries arise, the bond is the safety net everyone climbs under. Although the FNMA 5.5% is only up 42 Bp, the real test is that it passed the 50 day moving average. Without much meat … (0 comments)
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daily bond report: Daily Bond Report - 07/08/08 02:14 PM
The late fear yesterday was that both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were in trouble and needed to raise some fast cash to stay afloat. With mortgage backed securities starting with FNMA, although the market was primed for better rates, no one seemed to be able to get past that. It almost made the fact that Indy Mac was shutting its lending side seem trivial. Today the news (and bonds) is better. With the Fed coming out stating that they would do whatever it would take to fix this and Freddie and Fannie both saying that it was overstated, rates are … (0 comments)
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daily bond report: The daily Bond Report - 07/07/08 12:02 PM
Monday, July 07, 2008
Look up, look down, look all around.... Most of us remember how the last line goes, and it is about the same with mortgage backed securities today. The bond was down as much as 38 Bp when I started writing this article today... then it rebounded up 17 Bp, and now it is up 7 Bp for the day and 31 Bo since rate sheets came out. Without any major economic news today, the bond is taking the lead form the DOW and oil today. With the down giving up its earnings today and oil (thankfully) below … (2 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond Report - 06/30/08 02:42 PM
Monday, June 30, 2008
Bonds have remained flat for most of the day. Currently the FNMA 5.5% 60 yr is down 6 Bp for the day and has been between -6 and +12. With investors looking at a $162 billion war spending bill marked for a volatile region, oil is where the eyes are today With oil passing a $143 a Bbl today, bonds are going to be hard pressed to make any major gains. The only potential mover out today was the Chicago PMI, which once again came in under 50 (showing contraction in the economy). With this number coming … (0 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond Report - 06/27/08 12:32 PM
Friday, June 27, 2008
After yesterdays massive selloff of stocks yesterday, it looks as if the bond market is trying it's best to turn positive. A good sign of just how hard this is proving to be, although the DOW dropped over 300 points, the bond struggled to gain little more than 25 Bp. The bond is once again trying to pass 25 Bp for the day, and given the volatility of the news out there, one jump in the stock market and all gains the bond made in the past 4 days are lost. With inflation now above the worrisome … (0 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond Report - 06/24/08 03:07 PM
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
As what is becoming the norm with the market and rates, bonds came off their high of the day and dropped into negative territory before bouncing back to being up 25 Bp for the day. Making the market move erratically today is a mixture of housing numbers, consumer confidence, and deciphering what the Fed said. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index fell 15.3% in April (yes it is June), the fastest rate since it started being tracked. Not to be beaten by bad news, consumer confidence fell to a 15 year low of 50.4, smashing estimates … (0 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond Report - 06/17/08 11:21 AM
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Here is something that you don't hear every day. Kuwaiti Finance Minister Mustafa Al-Shimali stated today that oil prices are too high and that they should be around $100 per barrel. With this coming from the 4th largest oil producing member OPEC, oil has retreated below $134 again. Housing starts fell 3.3% in May, the lowest in 17 years. This is bad news for the construction industry, but good for the market as a whole as we all painfully know, we could use a reduction in inventory. The Producer Price Index came out today at 1.4%, or … (1 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond Report - 06/12/08 02:07 PM
Thursday, June 12, 2008
This morning the bond found its level of support..... and then shot lower. With May retail sales beating everyone's expectations by .5%, it seemed that the much worse than expected unemployment numbers, which came in at 384,000, took a back seat. Bonds are still tracking down and we have already seen a re-price for the worse today. Oil is also down, which make stocks the winner of the day. With so much worry in the banking industry, we are going to be hard pressed to find a level of support. Tomorrow's CPI may show an increase in … (1 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond Report - 06/09/08 01:55 PM
Monday, June 09, 2008
Lehman Brothers announced today that they are expecting a $2.8 Billion loss for this quarter and are in the process of trying to raise $6 Billion in Capital. This has provided the hammer to push down the bond today and raised rates. Oil, which flirted with $140 on Friday, has pushed back down to the $136 range. Pending home sales unexpectedly jumped in April to 88.2, higher than October, but still 13% lower than a year ago. With Bargain hunters moving their money from bonds today to buy stocks, it would be wise to lock any loan … (0 comments)
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daily bond report: The daily Bond Report - 06/03/08 12:49 PM
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Factory orders Jumped up a whopping 1.1% last month, much higher than the .1% expected, and giving the Dow a good boost in the morning. Banging Ben Bernanke also came out and to no surprise said that the Fed is done with rate cuts and even hinted about rate hikes. This is good news for us as a country as it will help tame inflation and boost the value of the dollar. Since oil is only traded in dollars, this equals to lower prices per barrel. The bond has been down most of the morning, but has … (0 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond Report - 05/29/08 12:08 PM
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Bonds are getting hammered today with the FNMA 5.5% 30 yr down 85 Bp for the day. The big winner today are stocks which meandered this morning for a while between positive and negative territory then shot up over 119 in the last 45 minutes. Moving the market today is the expected .9% improvement in the GDP (gross domestic product). Although it is in line with what analysts feet it would be, and it is more a showing that the weakness of the dollar has us buying less from overseas, it also shows that more countries are buying … (0 comments)
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daily bond report: Daily Bond Report - 05/27/08 12:23 PM
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Since pricing came out this morning the bond is down 4 Bp. The negative there is that it is down 31 Bp since the market opened. This means that most of the damage done to rates happened before lenders came out with rates. In short, if the loan wasn't locked Friday, it may be best to sit and wait today out. Market movers today are mixed. Today consumer confidence came in at 57.2, the lowest in 16 years. Housing data came in very mixed with a jump in sales, but a 14.1% decline in sales price. This … (0 comments)
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daily bond report: The Daily Bond Report for the Tooele and Salt Lake City Real Estate Markets - 05/20/08 02:11 PM
It's another rodeo ride for the bond market today. The biggest market news is OIL (again), and it's push to the $130 mark. Economists' have been predicting $200 a bbl by year's end and it is starting to look like it may happen. Anyone have a Moped for sale? The Labor department's Producer Price Index(PPI) came out today, and the core (taking out energy and food) rose to .4% doubling what economists had expected. The overall PPI actually dropped, which has been a head scratcher given the cost of fuel and food recently. In mortgage news, the senate approved a bi-partisan … (0 comments)
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daily bond report: Daily Bond Report For The Tooele and Salt Lake City Real Estate Markets - 05/19/08 01:15 PM
Friday, May 16, 2008
When I first saw the layout to our new home I thought "how smart to have the laundry on the second floor", then I moved a washer and dryer. Now all I think is "OUCH!!!" The market is much nicer than that today. With most economists feeling that the mortgage mess and home sales declines coming to an end by late 2008, AND the economy weakening further, the bond is on a small rally today even with the DOW up more than 125. Oil has fallen just below $126 a Bbl, which is good news considering the … (1 comments)
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Karl Menzer Tooele Utah Real Estate Lender
Tooele,
UT
More about me…
karlmenzer.com
Address: 36 N Main St., Tooele, Ut , 84074
Office Phone: (435) 849-0212
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