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tooele mortgage: Daily Bond Report - 08/08/08 01:36 PM
Friday, August 08, 2008
With Fannie Mae announcing that their second quarter earnings were three times less than what analysts expected and their CEO stating that they are expecting it to get worse, it would seem logical that the bond and stock market would follow past trends and would both tank... ummm no. Both the bond and stock market has rallied on from what can only be explained as an oil hangover. Oil has fallen down to the $116 range dropping almost $4 today. Now if they will just drop the price of gas as fast as they raise it (that … (1 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 08/01/08 11:17 AM
Friday, August 01, 2008
Unemployment jumped to 5.7% beating estimates, but June employment payrolls 17,000 less than expected. Who makes these estimates!?!?!?! So far, the economy has lost a total of 463,000 jobs this year. Alan Greenspan, famous for being pulled out of the mothballs and dusted off, talked about what he feels as an eminent recession on the horizon. His words, not mine Steve... Here's where the bonds will have a hard time making ground today even with the DOW down more than 70 points in early trading. On his interview on CNBC, he felt that the U.S. housing market … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 07/31/08 02:03 PM
Thursday, July 31, 2008
I have a real problem accepting the price of gas when once again Exxon reported record profits... they did miss what analyst expected though. Off my soapbox. The second quarter GDP rose 1.9%, nearly doubling last quarter, but less than the 2% analysts were hoping for. Sounds good to many, but some are worried that the economic Stimulus package was more to thank than the economy actually growing, leading to much weaker numbers in the next quarter. In a direction opposite to yesterdays ADP report, initial jobless claims rose to 448,000 last week, the highest since April … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 07/30/08 12:24 PM
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Let's start with the bad news and work our way to good. Mortgage applications dropped 14.1% to levels not seen since 2000, with purchase applications down 7.8%. This is understandable in our ever tightening loan market. With rates up and concerns on inflation being the biggest reason, the best action is to have rates go down and hope the inflation hype relaxes. On to the good news. Today we had a set of positive signs for investors for both the bond and stocks. This month's ADP jobs report came in with an expected gain of 9,000 jobs … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 07/29/08 01:17 PM
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
When bad news goes good... bonds took a slight nosedive today after investment bank Merrill Lynch said late Monday it would take a $5.7 billion write-down and sell off $30 billion in mortgage backed securities (MBS) this quarter.... At 1/5th their face value. They are doing this, along $8.5 billion through the issuance of new stock, just to bring the write-down to only $5.7 Billion. If I were an investor I would dump all I had in MBS and get in line for this fire sale. Also in the bad, good, and ugly, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond - 07/28/08 01:49 PM
Monday, July 28, 2008
Today is a sure float day... for now. With a number of economic reports due out this week, today's happy bond day is due to the sad stock day. Thankfully oil is in a holding pattern even though there was a small bombing issue on one of the pipelines. What is really giving a boost today is not only the approval of the new housing bill, but that the president is also expected to sign it. The latest addition will not only extend the ability for the Federal government to lend money to Freddie and Fannie, but … (1 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The daily Bond Report - 07/22/08 12:47 PM
Lock. Lock. Lock. Did I mention that you should have your clients lock today? With Oil below $127, gold down more than $17 today and stocks only on a modest gain, it would sound like a great day for the bond market. Unless of course more bad media came out today on the 2 big Mac's today. Which Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson did today when he told congress that they needed to pass funding for them before it's too late. You know I have been occasionally called a doom and gloom guy (talking to you Steve), but even would I know better … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 07/18/08 01:55 PM
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
The one thing you can count on when you take time off is that whatever can go wrong will. Earnings reports have been coming out this week, and as expected the losses were major. The interesting part is that they were not as major as expected. Today was no exception. Citigroup came out today reporting their losses $2.5 Billion for the last quarter, beating analysts' estimates of $3.6 billion. With the losses less than expected, investors believe the wave of mortgage defaults are on the wane and the end of the mortgage mess is near. Remember investors … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 07/16/08 01:19 PM
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
yea, it's been a lock day. Most of the market news making the DOW shooting up was based not on companies reporting record profit, but rather loosing less than expected. I am a big fan of finding the silver lining in mushroom cloud that has been the market lately, and it seems that the rest of the market is taking the same approach today. Big Ben is on the hill again today making sure that everyone knows Freddie and Fannie are not going to fail or be taken over by the government. Also making the news today … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond - 06/20/08 03:15 PM
Friday, June 20, 2008
We started the day off well enough and even had the option of a re-price for the better. With Oil down from its high of the day, and all the major Indices also down, it would be safe to say today is a float day.... But it is not. The Bond is still having a hard time recapturing the momentum needed to push rates down. Currently the bond is up only 3Bp for the day but down 250Bp from when pricing came out. With companies like Citigroup and Washington mutual talking more write-down's and layoffs, and bond … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 06/19/08 12:17 PM
Thursday, June 19, 2008
It's another mattress day today as the bond, oil, and the Dow are all struggling to be positive. Making market news today are Mays Leading Economic Indicators, Jobless claims, and the Fed Philly Survey. The LEI, which measures 10 different aspect of the economy and trying to predict how well (or bad) we will do over the next 6 months, came in up .1% in May. Although it is an improvement, it isn't enough to really boost confidence in the market. Initial Jobless claims beat expectations (bad) coming in at 381,000 for last week. Normally a bond … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 06/18/08 03:37 PM
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
We are having a modest rally on the bond today. Currently we are up 64 Bp for the day, and 40 Bp since pricing came out at 10 am, giving us 2 re-prices for the better. The main driving force today is more on worries from the earnings reports and the effect they are having on the DOW, causing investors to move to the safety of the bond. Today both Morgan Stanley and Fifth Third Bancorp came out with much lower than expected earnings, with Morgan Stanley reporting that profits fell more than 57% from a year … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 06/17/08 11:21 AM
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Here is something that you don't hear every day. Kuwaiti Finance Minister Mustafa Al-Shimali stated today that oil prices are too high and that they should be around $100 per barrel. With this coming from the 4th largest oil producing member OPEC, oil has retreated below $134 again. Housing starts fell 3.3% in May, the lowest in 17 years. This is bad news for the construction industry, but good for the market as a whole as we all painfully know, we could use a reduction in inventory. The Producer Price Index came out today at 1.4%, or … (1 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 06/12/08 02:07 PM
Thursday, June 12, 2008
This morning the bond found its level of support..... and then shot lower. With May retail sales beating everyone's expectations by .5%, it seemed that the much worse than expected unemployment numbers, which came in at 384,000, took a back seat. Bonds are still tracking down and we have already seen a re-price for the worse today. Oil is also down, which make stocks the winner of the day. With so much worry in the banking industry, we are going to be hard pressed to find a level of support. Tomorrow's CPI may show an increase in … (1 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 06/11/08 01:53 PM
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
What a fun day yesterday. Since I was unable to e-mail and post this yesterday, here is a brief synopsis. 3 (count them) reprises for the worse, and a 118 Bp drop on the bond. We are still in a lock mode for the time being. That means that if you get a signed contract, please have your client ask their lender to lock the loan as soon as they can. With inflation on the Fed's mind and fear about the financial industry in investors' minds, oil has made a $6+ gain today as the safer investment. … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: One Last thought - 06/03/08 01:07 PM
Coming soon to a lender near you...RETURN OF THE SISA... 100% 620 FICO, WAGE EARNER, ROLLING 30'S OK!!! Naaaa. That is what got us into the mess in the first place. The SISA has returned, but in a tamed down (somewhat sensible) version. What is allowed is 80% CLTV at a 680 FICO, on a primary residence or 700 on second homes. Investments are not allowed (yet). This program is only offered to self employed borrowers (sorry wage earners), but does allow for interest only. The program is close to conforming in the rates with a price hit of only .25 … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 06/02/08 01:58 PM
Monday, June 02, 2008
YOU'RE FIRED!!!! And with that investors became worried about the market and have given us a small rally in the bond today. Today the CEO's of both Wachovia and Washington Mutual were asked to step down as chairmen. To add to bond, today's economic reports, although better than expected, both cam in lower. With the ISM Manufacturing index once again below 50 (which means contraction in the economy), investors are looking at the six time in seven months as a sure sign that the worst isn't over. Another good sign for the bond is that although construction … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 05/30/08 12:24 PM
Friday, May 30, 2008
Consumer confidence fell to a 28 year low according to the University of Michigan. This is the lowest reading since June 1980. To make everyone happy income rose .2%, but inflation is now expected to surge 5.2% (highest since 1982). Here I thought only bad hairdo's came from the 80's. With fuel costs nearing $4.00 a gallon, words like stagflation and staycation are starting to show up more in the news. Speaking of oil, the federal government has been investigating... well... the federal government for possible price manipulation in the U.S. oil markets. The bond had been … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The Daily Bond Report - 05/29/08 12:08 PM
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Bonds are getting hammered today with the FNMA 5.5% 30 yr down 85 Bp for the day. The big winner today are stocks which meandered this morning for a while between positive and negative territory then shot up over 119 in the last 45 minutes. Moving the market today is the expected .9% improvement in the GDP (gross domestic product). Although it is in line with what analysts feet it would be, and it is more a showing that the weakness of the dollar has us buying less from overseas, it also shows that more countries are buying … (0 comments)
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tooele mortgage: The daily Bond Report for the Salt Lake and Tooele Markets - 05/28/08 12:00 PM
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Durable Goods came in down .5% which was slightly less than the .7% drop than anticipated. What has killed the bond today is that if you exclude transportation, it came in up a whopping 2.5%. This may be a signal that businesses feel that it is time to stock up for better business. Bonds have taken a beating and are bouncing off the trend line. If we drop past this, we can look for rates to go up more. Here is where what is expected ends... Stocks are down, and oil is hovering around $129 (remember it … (0 comments)
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Karl Menzer Tooele Utah Real Estate Lender
Tooele,
UT
More about me…
karlmenzer.com
Address: 36 N Main St., Tooele, Ut , 84074
Office Phone: (435) 849-0212
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