Bond Report: Prices go up, pushing interest rates (yields) lower - 05/31/11 12:11 PM
Bond prices were helped by continued fears about European sovereign debt, disappointing economic data and strong auctions.
The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended the week up .13, closing at $100.19.
With mortgage bond prices going up, national average rates for conforming mortgages dropped again last week, reaching new lows for the year, according to Freddie Mac's survey.
From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, May 30, 2011
 
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Purchase loan applications up and housing affordablity improves - 05/31/11 12:08 PM
On the positive side, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported applications for purchase loans UP a seasonally adjusted 1.5% from the week before and UP 3.1% from a year ago.
Smart buyers are taking action now. With mortgage rates super low and today's prices, housing affordability in the first quarter reached its highest level in more than 20 years.
The Housing Opportunity Index revealed that 74.6% of new and existing homes sold at that time were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,400, putting home ownership in the reach of many more households.  
From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for … (1 comments)

Week-in-Review: Stocks down 4th week in a row...rates hit yearly lows too - 05/31/11 12:06 PM
Stocks were down for the fourth week in a row. But investors know that, unlike football, fourth down on Wall Street is not your last chance to hold onto the ball. The fumbling, however, continues with the economy. The good and not-so-good housing market news is covered above. Durable Goods Orders were down for April but revised strongly upward for March. Q1 GDP wasn't revised at all, unfortunately remaining at a lackluster 1.8% annual growth rate. But the report showed corporate profits hit a new record high, up at a 5.3% annual rate and up 8.5% over a year ago.The University of … (0 comments)

This Week's Forecast: Watch for Manufacturing, ISM Services Index & Jobs Report (week of May 30, 2011) - 05/31/11 12:04 PM
Today we'll get May's Chicago PMI, reflecting the state of manufacturing in that area, expected to be down a little, though still well above 50, indicating growth. Wednesday's ISM Index measures manufacturing across the country and should also show a slower pace of growth, though growth nonetheless. Friday, the ISM Services Index is expected to report a slight pickup in that sector where you'll find 85% of U.S. jobs. That growth could be a reason why, coming on the same day, the May Employment Report is projected to include 185,000 new jobs added, fewer than April, with the Unemployment Rate holding at … (0 comments)

Federal Reserve Watch - 05/31/11 12:02 PM
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...With Core PCE Prices still showing very mild inflation, the Fed can stay firm in its resolve to keep the Funds Rate at the super low 0%-0.25% level. Economists expect this to remain the case into 2012. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25%
From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, May 31, 2011
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Economic Calendar: Week of May 30, 2011 - 05/31/11 12:00 PM
Economic Calendar for the Week of May 30 - June 3
From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, May 30, 2011
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April Housing Data: A Closer Look at the Numbers Shows Some Silver Linings - 05/23/11 08:16 PM
People wonder if housing is moving in the right direction, especially after April Housing Starts fell 10.6% to an annual rate of 523,000 units.
But a closer look reveals the decline was due mostly to multi-family units, which are volatile month to month and actually up 6.6% from a year ago.
Also, the biggest drop was in the South, which had been hit with severe tornados. Outside that region, starts were UP 5.5%! Homes under construction are at their lowest level since 1970, so some areas may rebound from shortages in the next few months.
Following a March rise, Existing Home … (0 comments)

Bond Market Week-in-Review: Rates Head Lower (week ending May 20, 2011) - 05/23/11 08:14 PM
Bonds usually go in the opposite direction from stocks, but there were only modest gains in bond prices for the week.
The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended Friday up .02, closing at $100.06. As mortgage bond prices go up, mortgage rates go down.
So no surprise that national average rates for conforming mortgages slid for the fifth week in a row according to Freddie Mac's survey. But observers are concerned rates will not stay at these levels (especially with the impending ending next month of QE2).
From my weekly enewsletter for real estate pros, INSIDE LENDING, for the week of May … (0 comments)

Week in Review: Last Week Was a Slippery One for Stocks (week ending May 20, 2011) - 05/23/11 08:11 PM
The Dow and S&P 500 stock indexes both slid for the third week in a row, this time joined by the Nasdaq, which was flat last time around. Wall Street investors continue to worry over European government finances, with possible Greek debt restructuring and Spanish elections causing concern.
On the home front, some folks fretted about a U.S. economic slowdown, as corporate earnings season, after a strong beginning, is ending with big players like HP, Home Depot and Wal-Mart failing to impress.
But there still were corporate winners, including Dell, John Deere, Abercrombie & Fitch and Target and, for the quarter, many more … (0 comments)

Federal Reserve Watch: When will the Fed Move Rates - Experts Say Not Now - 05/23/11 08:09 PM
The minutes of the Fed's April meeting gave no indication the central bankers were ready to start tightening policy any time soon. So economists expect the 0%-0.25% rate to be with us into next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25%
From my weekly enewsletter for real estate pros, INSIDE LENDING, for the week of May 23, 2011
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Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead (May 23 – May 27 - 05/23/11 08:07 PM
 
Keep in mind that weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates
 From my weekly enewsletter for real estate pros, INSIDE LENDING, for the week of May 23, 2011
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This Week's Economic Forecast: Housing starts, permits and existing sales ahead - 05/16/11 07:55 PM
Tomorrow (Tuesday) we get a read on home building in April. Housing Starts are expected to be up a tad and Building Permits down just a smidge, indicating no major drop in activity a few months out. Thursday's Existing Home Sales are also forecast up for April, staying above the 5 million annual sales threshold. The health of manufacturing in May is projected to be down a bit in both the New York region's Empire Index and the Philadelphia Fed index. The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index is expected to be flat for April.
From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real … (0 comments)

Bond market gives mixed results, yet mortgage rates hit year lows - 05/16/11 07:53 PM
Mixed results in the bond market, with shorter dated maturities gaining slightly and longer ones losing a tad. Safe haven buys driven by continued Euro, Middle East and Japanese nuclear concerns were discouraged by inflation worries.
The price of the FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended the week down .10, closing at $100.04. Freddie Mac's national average rates for conforming mortgages fell once more and although some worry rates may head back up, they're now below levels of a year ago. 
From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, May 16, 2011
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Investor confidence not strong in stocks last week, inflation weighs on consumers - 05/16/11 07:52 PM
Like yesterday's fish, stocks didn't seem very appealing to investors who can't seem to stay confident in the economy, as the Dow and the S&P 500 dipped for another week.
Sure, the tech-driven Nasdaq didn't drop, but ending flat clearly isn't very bullish.
Commodities came back some and the dollar rallied. Problems included April Retail Sales which were up 0.5%, but the big gains were from service stations and supermarkets, reflecting rising gas and food prices. For consumers, inflation was up 0.4% in April and up 3.2% for the year.
Weekly jobless claims were down by 44,000, but still firmly above the … (0 comments)

Week-in-Review: Home sales up in Q1, but prices drop (week ending May 13, 2011) - 05/16/11 07:49 PM
Our resolution to succeed in the real estate market was given a bit of a boost with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) report that existing home sales were up 8.3% in the first quarter over the fourth quarter of last year. Plus, on a quarter-to-quarter basis, sales rose in every region of the country. Year-over-year, sales were virtually flat, slipping just 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.14 million homes.This was nonetheless balanced with some disappointing data. Year over year, existing home prices dropped 4.6% nationwide, to a median of $158,700. Median prices dropped year over year in … (0 comments)

Federal Reserve Watch: Economists see no rate changes for now from Fed - 05/16/11 07:46 PM
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke maintains he sees nothing wrong with Fed policy, so some economists expect these 0%-0.25% rates to be with us until the middle of next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25%
From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, May 16, 2011
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This Week's Economic Calendar: May 17-18, 2011 - 05/16/11 07:45 PM
Remember: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of May 16 - May 20
From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, May 16, 2011
 
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When Rates Do Go Up, How Fast Can They Jump? - 05/13/11 01:40 PM
A customer called me this morning and said, "Look, I know you have told me you don't have a crystal ball for interest rates, but can you tell me, when rates do go up, based on a review of what has happened in the past, do they go up slowly a little bit at a time or can they jump up fast?"
First, I do have a crystal ball, but it was shattered when the Federal Reserve started purchasing our own debt and mortgage bonds.  Second, history is only an indicator, but I did find the exercise of reviewing what has … (1 comments)

The Truth about the 3.8% Medicare Tax: It's not a Real Estate Tax - 05/13/11 12:18 PM
There is quite a buzz going around about a "new tax on all real estate sales" related to new health care legislation.
Here are the facts:
The new health care legislation includes a 3.8% Medicare tax that may apply to certain real estate transactions in certain very specific circumstances.
Unfortunately, this has been misreported all over the internet in some alarming ways.
Here is the fiction:
"The new health care legislation imposes a 3.8% tax on all home sales.""If you sell your home for $400,000, you'll pay a $15,200 'sales tax.'""Middle-income people will pay the full tax even if they're only 'rich' … (0 comments)

Everyone's Ready for a Housing Recovery - Is Housing Ready to Recover? - 05/09/11 03:14 PM
For those of us with a strong will to succeed in this housing recovery, the way appears to be by focusing on the extraordinary affordability of today's residential market. Part of this affordability lies in the fact that mortgage rates fell again for the third week in a row, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of national average rates for conforming mortgages. This drop took them to their lowest point of the year. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey reported demand for purchase loans was UP a seasonally adjusted 0.3% from the prior week.The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released … (0 comments)

This Week's Key Economic Focus: It's all about Inflation and Consumers - 05/09/11 03:11 PM
INFLATION, CONSUMER FEELINGS, CONSUMER SPENDING...
This is the week for looking at inflation once again. Thursday's Producer Price Index shows us how prices are doing at the wholesale level. The overall headline number will continue just shy of 1% with the core number holding at 0.3%. How much of this price increase gets passed on to the consumer will be told by Friday's Consumer Price Index. The Fed focuses on Core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is expected to rise to 0.2%. We'll see how much consumers are spending with Thursday's Retail Sales for April which should show continued … (2 comments)

Eyes on Greece: Bond prices move higher, push rates/yields lower - 05/09/11 03:09 PM
Last week bond prices moved higher, with safe haven buying from investors concerned over Greece's threats to leave the EU and those plummeting commodities prices.
The price of the FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended the week UP .97, the same amount as last week, closing at $100.14. Higher mortgage bond prices signal lower mortgage rates and national average rates for conforming mortgages fell again, as covered above. 
All eyes continue to be on Europe and Greece is not alone as economists are looking for another shoe to fall.
From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, May 9, 2011
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Week-in-Review: It was a wild week on Wall Street (week ending May 6, 2011) - 05/09/11 03:06 PM
Wall Street gave investors a wild ride, in a week that began with the death of Osama bin Laden and ended on a mixed April jobs report. The net result was that after two weeks of gains, all three major stock indexes slid a bit.
Commodities also took a hit, with crude oil prices off almost 15% for the week. This is good for consumers, who should get lower gas prices, and good for the rest of the economy, as it starts seeing some of that money which had been going into our tanks. ISM Manufacturing and Services were down for … (0 comments)

Friday's Crude Oil's Drop to $99 - First Time Under $100 in Two Months, but is it Short-Lived? - 05/09/11 03:02 PM
While Crude Oil is trading north of $100 today, last week's 15% decline was the first time that Crude has been under $100 a barrel for two months.
Bloomberg notes that this weekly decline was the biggest one seen since 2008.
Unfortunately the price drop may be short-lived, according to reports today from the business news service:
"Futures climbed as much as 4.4 percent, snapping a five-day losing streak, after a report today showed German exports surged to a record in March and the U.S. Labor Department said last week that payrolls expanded. Prices also advanced on concern that a rising … (0 comments)

Federal Reserve Watch: Economists say 99% probability of no immediate change in rates - 05/09/11 02:52 PM
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...Even though more economists are talking about the need for the Fed to raise the Funds rate to curb inflation, virtually none believe Chairman Bernanke will listen to them any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25%
From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, May 9, 2011
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This Week's Economic Calendar: Week of May 9, 2011 - 05/09/11 02:51 PM
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of May 9 - May 13
 From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING, for real estate pros, May 9, 2011
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Interest Rate Update: Higher Bond Prices Keeps Rates Low - 05/02/11 01:06 PM
Last week (ending April 29, 2011), bond prices moved higher, reacting positively to the tame inflation report and the slowing economic recovery reflected in the lower GDP growth number.
The price of the FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended the week UP .97, closing at $99.17. Higher mortgage bond prices signal lower mortgage rates.
Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed national average rates for conforming mortgages at historically low levels, falling for the second week in a row. 
From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING for Real Estate Pros, Week of May 2, 2011
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Last Week's Housing News Illustrates our "Zig-Zag" Economy - 05/02/11 01:04 PM
Last week's reports showed the progress of the housing market recovery is definitely on a zigzag trajectory.
Zigging upward were new home sales, UP a strong 11.1% in March, hitting the 300,000 threshold annual rate. The supply of new homes dropped to 7.3 months and the inventory fell again, to its lowest level since 1967.
Also zigging UP 5.1% were March Pending Home Sales, which measure contracts on existing homes and point to continued gains in existing home sales come April and May.But the path to progress in the housing market recovery zagged downward in the pricing area.
The FHFA index … (0 comments)

Week-in-Review: Stocks Head Higher Last Week (ending April 29, 2011) - 05/02/11 01:02 PM
Once again, investors on Wall Street sent stock prices higher and the Dow Jones Industrial Average wound UP 4% for April, its best monthly gain since December. This happened in spite of the still slipping home prices covered above, plus a preliminary Q1 GDP reading of just a 1.8% annual growth rate. But consumer inflation is up only 1.8% versus a year ago and Core PCE prices, which exclude food and energy, came in just 0.9% up over the past year. Consequently, the Fed, as expected, kept the Funds rate at its rock bottom level coming out of their FOMC meeting on … (0 comments)

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC FORECAST: Watch the ISM Index on Monday, Jobs Report on Friday - 05/02/11 01:00 PM
From beginning to end, this week features answers to those two burning questions:
Monday's ISM Index for April is expected to show a slight slowdown in the growth of manufacturing, although the expected reading is still well above 50, indicating expansion. Wednesday's ISM Services is forecast to show the same level of continued growth in that sector of the economy, which provides about 85% of our country's jobs.How the economy is doing creating those jobs will be reported in Friday's Employment Report for April. Another 183,000 jobs are expected to be added, fewer than in March, but the unemployment rate should … (1 comments)

Federal Reserve Watch: Little Chance Rates Will Rise Soon, Even Bernanke Says - 05/02/11 12:56 PM
If anyone doubted it, Chairman Bernanke said it himself at last week's historic press conference -- rates will stay at their current rock bottom level "for an extended period." Many economists are taking that to mean till the end of the year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25%

From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING for Real Estate Pros, Week of May 2, 2011
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ECONOMIC NEWS CALENDER for Week of May 2, 2011 - 05/02/11 12:55 PM
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of May 2 - May 6
From my weekly enewsletter INSIDE LENDING for Real Estate Pros, Week of May 2, 2011
 
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Kevin Hawkins

Bainbridge Island, WA

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IMPREV, Inc.

Address: 321 High School Rd NE, Ste D3 #151, Bainbridge Island, WA, 98110

Office Phone: (855) 446-7738 x 8427

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