ARCHIVED BLOG POSTS
2011
It will be interesting to see if Wednesday's Pending Home Sales give us some positive signs about the state of housing sales a few months out. The expectation is for a small gain. The week begins with the Fed's favorite inflation reading, Core PCE Prices, forecast to be up a benign 0.2% for May.W...
06/27/2011
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It certainly takes plenty of determination to find the opportunities in today's housing market. Last week the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Existing Home Sales down 3.8% in May to an annual rate of 4.81 million units, a six-month low. The median price was up for the month, thoug...
06/27/2011
Weaker stock prices and stronger concerns over European sovereign debt sent investors to the safe haven of bonds, whose prices benefited. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended the week up .84, closing at $101.09. In Freddie Mac's weekly survey, national average rates for conforming mortgages held at...
06/27/2011
It was a volatile week in stocks, with only the Nasdaq index up, while both the Dow and the S&P 500 were off. The up-and-down stock prices mimicked Wall Street's responses to the economic situation. The week started on an up note, as Greek debt problems (which could impact U.S. banks) seemed clos...
06/27/2011
In last week's presser, Fed Chairman Bernanke explained that keeping the Funds Rate where it is for an "extended period" means at least two or three meetings. Economists are taking him at his word. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the sam...
06/27/2011
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact MJun 27 08:30 Personal Income May 0.3% 0.4% Moderate MJun 27 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.1% 0.4% HIGH MJun 27 08:30 PCE Prices - Core May 0.2% 0.2% HIGH TuJun 28 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 60.3 60.8 Moderate WJun 29 10:00 Pending Home Sales...
06/27/2011
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What more could you want? Tuesday's Existing Home Sales and Thursday's New Home Sales will show us if May's closings pushed the annual sales rate up or down. Unfortunately, down is forecast, although surprises are always possible. Wednesday we get the Fed's pronouncement on the Funds Rate and the...
06/21/2011
What was gaining on us last week were May Housing Starts, up 3.5% for the month to a higher-than-expected 560,000 unit annual rate. The gain included a 29% increase in multi-family starts, which are now up 17.5% over a year ago. New building permits were also up in May, by 8.7%, to a 612,000 annu...
06/21/2011
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After six down weeks, the Dow and the S&P 500 stock indexes finally showed weekly gains, although the S&P was up a mere half point. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was still off a tick for the week, dragged down by the makers of BlackBerry, whose stock dropped mightily on earnings that fell well short of S...
06/21/2011
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Given Fed Chairman Bernanke's continued pronouncements, economists do not expect a hike in the Funds Rate any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed ...
06/21/2011
