Building on a trend noted in last month’s report, media coverage of the overall economy has improved. In particular, reporting on the housing market. Forecasters are predicting that 2010 will be the first year since 2005 for housing to contribute to the growth of the U.S. economy (based on a survey by the National Association for Business Economics). According to that organization, home prices are expected to rise 2 percent next year — over 80% of economists surveyed think the recession is over and recovery has begun. The Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann, predicts that sales of existing homes will rise 11 percent in 2010, with sales of new homes climbing 21 percent.
But, perhaps more importantly, the Dow Jones has rocketed up past 10,000 and the tone of the W-shaped recovery dialogue has moderated. It was announced today that JPMorgan Chase plans to hire 1,200 mortgage bankers in light of improved housing market and signs of stability.
Finally, we know from past experience that in down cycles, once the San Francisco housing market recovers, there is a domino effect on surrounding communities. Accordingly, in our current cycle, we believe that our best leading indicator regarding a healthy, appreciating market (particularly in Southern Marin) will be the home sales environment in San Francisco. And there can be no doubt that the San Francisco market has improved dramatically in recent months. Additionally, as the banking institutions regain their footing and again provide bonuses to their employees, we will also see a surge in luxury home sales. In fact, if bonuses are significant and broad-based, I predict a very strong luxury sales market early in 2010 as buyers snap up the many “values” out there in the luxury and ultra-luxury sectors.
As reported in previous months, real buyers have become less numerous. They are placing emphasis on prestige locations, views, lifestyle amenities (usable yards, proximity to clubs/shopping, etc.), schools, and sensible scale. And they are seeking “value.” The Marin County luxury market has favored homes priced under $3 million — although 5 homes traded over $4 million in November 2009. [For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, click HERE. And if you would like a hyper-local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, e-mail or call me at (415) 350-9440.]
The below graph tracks asking prices for 3 “hot” locales in Marin — Tiburon/Belvedere (they are combined here because they use the same zip code), Mill Valley, and Kentfield. Interestingly, while Belvedere continues to see asking prices drop, Kentfield and Mill Valley have seen asking prices increase over the last 4 months. Of course, asking prices do not necessarily closely reflect selling prices and in Mill Valley, there are lots of homes on the market in the higher price bands, which have not sold.
The year over year inventory levels in Mill Valley have hovered at around 20% higher than last year for 6 months, but has dipped to about 15%. Meanwhile, inventory in Kentfield is up 65% and Tiburon - Belvedere inventory levels are over 90% higher than last year.
Below is a new chart focusing on the percentage of homes that have experiencd price reductions and the depth of those price reductions, on average. This chart examines these trends in Mill Valley and in Belvedere - Tiburon. It is perhaps not surprising that nearly 35% of listings in Tiburon - Belvedere have experienced a price reduction and those reductions average about 12%.
Marin County, California real estate enters the Winter months much the same way it entered the Summer months — with a feeling that activity will be stronger than usual for this time of year. While year over year prices are down across the board no matter how you slice it, many feel as though absent further crisis, we may be nearing the end of the downward cycle — after a full 3 years. Certainly, well priced, updated homes in great locations are selling.
As noted in my Novato update, it is apparent that the low end in Northern Marin has settled on a bottom:
Savvy buyers waiting for “the bottom to hit” recognize that we may be there and that any further price erosion will be outweighed by increased interest rates which are likely around the bend. Surely, home buyers in Novato are finding that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $550,000. In the 94949 zip code, median prices year over year dipped a mere 3%. I think many observers would be surprised. Local agents are all talking about a “bounce” in prices over the past several months.
Meanwhile, the rest of Marin looks a little different. As noted last month, some sellers still suffer from pricing strategies that prevent them from realistically engaging with qualified buyers. Nonetheless, we have well over a dozen $2 million and up properties in escrow and are, no doubt, seeing increased confidence in high-end buyers. Should the stock market continue recovering in coming months and year end bonuses be granted at year end, I predict more late Winter sales and a strong early Spring market as affluent buyers step into the market which will undoubtedly hold "value" for those poised to strike.
As for bread and butter homes (e.g., priced below $1 million, at least 3 beds and 2 baths with 1,500 square feet or more) the chart below reflects the number of homes in escrow county-wide in October 2007 through October 2009. This year, our October escrow numbers are up a full 50% from both October 2007 & 2008. We see increased affordability and appealing interest rates supporting this trend for the foreseeable future.
Further evidence of a strengthening market exists in Mill Valley. The chart below shows a 90-day rolling average of Mill Valley’s new listings and absorbed listings (e.g., sales), comparing current numbers with those of last year. Note that the while the numbers for new listings are about the same, the number of absorbed listings exceeds that of 2008. If you would like to review a similar chart for any other town or city in Marin, please let me know.
Not surprisingly, inventory dropped significantly over the past month to 652 single family homes for sale (we had 762 last month). Note that this includes the Highway 101 corridor (excluding Western Marin inventory and condos).
For a detailed executive summary similar to, but much more detailed than below, providing statistics and trends relating to the Marin real estate market (or any specific zip code), contact me any time. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
Belvedere and Tiburon real estate is expensive — land values are extraordinarily high. Several homes each year sell for $5 million and up. As 2009 began to unwind, the luxury sector was flat for obvious reasons and it seemed as though the highly valued luxury homes with jetliner views and royal class appointments would never sell again — that has changed. For four months straight we have experienced sales above the $5 million mark. October was no exception with 2 sales.
Nonetheless, sales and activity remain choppy. There are currently 93 listings in the 94920 zip code, which covers Tiburon and Belvedere (down 16 from last month). Twenty-two of these properties are priced over $5 million. In the lower price segments, activity is moderate (3 sales under $2 million). There were 8 sales in September 2009.
Not until March of this year did the median asking price for homes in Belvedere dip below that of 2008. Belvedere was the last Marin city to experience that shift (a full 6 months after Tiburon). Over the past several months however, that shift has become more exaggerated as prices begin reflecting market realities. Currently, the median asking asking price in Belvedere is more than $1.25 million lower than 1 year ago. In contrast, Tiburon’s asking prices have actually increased to the point they are slightly above those of a year ago — of course, these are asking prices, not sales prices.
For homes that sold in October 2009, the average price per square foot was $774 — far above August’s $674. Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of the major price bands:
20% of homes priced under $2 million (up from 19% last month);
22% of homes between $2 million and $3 million (up 10% from last month);
8% of homes between $3 million and $5 million ( down from 12% from last month);
4% of homes over $5 million (down from 12% from last month).
Tiburon and Belvedere homes that sold in October 2009 exhibited the following characteristics:
Number of Sales: 8
Average Days on Market: 121
Price: $3,097,500
Square Feet: 3,684
Price per Square Foot: $774
If you have any other questions or would like a custom market analysis of your home’s current likely sales price, please call me at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier and I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS) with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane International Realtors. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
p.s. I know of several properties that are not being formally marketed on the MLS, so if you are looking to buy please call me to see if any of these may meet your needs. If you would like a copy of my Tiburon / Belvedere Hotlist, e-mail me at Kyle@ImagineMarin.com.
Kyle Frazier, CRS
Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist
Broker Associate
Christie's Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate
We know from past experience that in down cycles, once the San Francisco housing market recovers, there is a domino effect on surrounding communities. Accordingly, in our current cycle, we believe that our best leading indicator regarding a healthy, appreciating market (particularly in Southern Marin) will be the home sales environment in San Francisco. And there can be no doubt that the San Francisco market has improved dramatically in recent months. Additionally, as the banking institutions regain their footing and again provide bonuses to their employees, we will also see a surge in luxury home sales. In fact, if bonuses are significant and broad-based, I predict a very strong luxury sales market early in 2010 as buyers snap up the many “values” out there in the luxury and ultra-luxury sectors.
Mill Valley will be first in line to benefit from this influx of local income. Meanwhile, however, the number of homes sold remains low. In October, we had just 20 home sales — virtually the same as in July, August, and September 2009. Many believe that the low number of sales is due in large part to a lack of “sexy inventory.” And in fact, turnkey homes that are priced competitively and located in desirable areas sell FAST. Meanwhile, homes with “challenges” in regard to location, condition, or price are simply not selling.
Sales prices seem to have gathered traction after a slippery first half of the year, last month’s price per square foot of homes sold was $565 (home sales prices have held steady in this general price per square foot range for months now). Of course, price per square foot is an often misleading indicator as applied to individual homes for several reasons (e.g., condition, location, usable yard space, and the size of the home — the larger the home, the lower the price per square foot). Indeed, a nice home in Sycamore Park may sell for $750-$800 per square foot. It all depends on the various factors in play.
Note that the graph below tracks asking prices and the average price per square foot for homes on the market is rising. It is currently approximately $620 per square foot. It remains to be seen whether this rise will translate into higher sales prices.
Based on last month’s sales total of 20, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last 5.3 months (slightly lower than last month) — this is called the absorption rate. This is still a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months.
The number of homes in escrow is up by about 11% from last month. We think there are many real buyers out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — we don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but we feel it will likely come soon.
In fact, the percentage of homes in escrow has risen to 55% in the bottom price band (under $800,000). This indicates that Mill Valley’s low end market is becoming very competitive and that fact bodes well. In Novato, for example, we believe the bottom began to form in April 2009 when it’s low end market began to see escrow ratios over 50% (Novato’s entry level price band has since reached over 80% of homes in escrow in what has become a very tight market). Since then, Novato’s overall market has become increasingly hotter across all price bands. I believe if Mill Valley follows suit, we will see a marked increase in sales over the next few months, particularly if San Francisco firms begin providing bonuses again in the New Year. Remember, last year, there were no bonuses and as a result (at least in part), we had a flat-lining market for the first 5 months of the year.
San Rafael, California real estate sales were brisk in October 2009. We experienced 44 trades, up from 31 in September 2009. The entry level price band (under $600K) remains at hot, with 70% of home now in escrow, up from 64% last month. Meanwhile, the $600K to $800K price band (a mix of entry level and move-up homes) remains nearly the identical to last month (36% of these homes are in escrow).
It is no secret that our current real estate environment in San Rafael favors buyers, not only because of the state of the market, but also because of superior interest rates, FHA loan availability (allowing purchase loans up to $729,000 with 3.5% down), and a shifting mindset by both buyers (who are ready to pull the trigger) and sellers (who are ready to do what it takes to sell). Meanwhile, housing inventory for single family homes fell to 135 homes (from 154 last month).
As reported this Summer, San Rafael listing prices experienced a brief rise from March to June, but that trend has reversed and resumed its downward trajectory. By comparison, asking prices in Novato have been rising for several months, leading many to believe that the bottom has formed in Novato. It does not appear this transition has fully settled in San Rafael.
Leaves are starting to hit the ground as the days grow shorter. But, Novato’s hot market shows no signs of cooling down. In October 2009, 50 Novato, California homes sold, compared with 35 sales in September 2009. Suffice it to say, the Novato real estate market is hot. Entry level home sales have shown sustained strength for the past 6 months. The number of homes actively listed in Novato remains very low compared with the rest of Marin (and the percentage of homes in escrow remains much higher than the rest of Marin). This exceptional demand is based on stunning affordability (homes are selling now for prices nobody could have dreamed of 3 short years ago) and the fantastically low interest rates.
While the average sales price of Novato homes rose in August to a remarkable $713,440 (based in large part on the makeup of sales), that number fell back to Earth in September — $646,389. Last month, the average sales price rose to $667,788.
Certain zip codes are performing exceptionally well. For example, in 94949 (Southern Novato) the percentage of homes in escrow is up 38% from last October and the average days on market is down 70%. This is simple supply and demand. Savvy buyers waiting for “the bottom to hit” recognize that we may be there and that any further price erosion will be outweighed by increased interest rates which are likely around the bend. Surely, home buyers in Novato are finding that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $550,000. In the 94949 zip code, median prices year over year dipped a mere 3%. I think many casual observers would be surprised. Local agents are all talking about a “bounce” in prices over the past several months.
Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:
78% of homes priced under $500,000 (up from 73% last month);
60% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (down from 66% last month — we have 5 new listings that just came on the market or this number would be higher);
45% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (down from 53%);
31% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (about the same as last month);
23% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (down from 31%);
0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.
Importantly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are selling as well as the entry level properties:
26 homes priced under $600,000 sold in October 2009
16 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in October 2009
5 homes priced from $1 million to $1.5 million sold in October 2009
In fact, more homes sold in October 2009 in the $1 million to $1.5 million price band in Novato than sold in Mill Valley in that same price band. I have regularly noted that the Novato luxury market is likely to gain momentum and we are seeing tangible sales figures support my observations.
There are lots of reasons to love condominiums ("condos"). People at both ends of the home buying cycle often find condos are perfect for their needs. Young, first-time buyers often buy condos (I am including townhomes and lofts for the sake of simplicity) because condos are generally more affordable than single family homes at the entry level.
At the other end of the spectrum, are those folks who have raised their families and are ready to embrace the concept of "easy living," leaving the hassles of home maintenance to somebody else. Indeed, the maintenance-free lifestyle also appeals to just about everybody who is too busy working long hours and spending their spare time socializing, etc., no matter what stage of life.
But, it is sometimes hard to know what your temperment and preferences are as they relate to condo living. The following is a quick and easy set of unscientifically designed questions, quite possibly errant in their presumptions and conclusions, to help you determine if a condo is right for you.
Tennis courts and pools are:
____ an absolute must.
____ nice, but no big deal.
____ exercise and sun are not my thing.
Urban living is
____ excellent, exciting ... I love it!
____ ho hum....traffic and parking tickets are a real bummer.
____ for the birds.
My living environment should be:
____ whatever ... I don't care.
____ I like to have some things a certain way.
____ exactly as I say (people tell me I am a control freak).
Privacy, to me, is:
____ not a big deal (I don't even plan on buying curtains).
____ somewhat important.
____ HUGE! Look away, please.
Home resale value is important because:
____ I'm gonna move again in a couple years.
____ Over time I would like to see my equity grow.
____ Whoever inherits my property may need the money.
Meeting people and having frequent interactions is:
____ Great! I love people!
____ OK. So long as they smell good.
____ I really hate people and their boring chit chat.
My willingness to do annual maintenance chores is:
____ Maintenance? Huh?
____ I do my Spring cleaning the next Fall, as necessary.
____ My yearly maintenance routine is on the calendar.
If someone asked you, "Do you like to mow the lawn and pull weeds?", your likely response is:
____ No.
____ I don't mind.
____ LOVE it! And I want fruit trees too!
Now, for each question, give yourself one point for each first answer, two points for each second answer, and three points for each third answer. Add them up.
8 to 12 points: Go out and buy a condo immediately--you will soon be on the Board of the HOA.
13-21 points: You will be happy in a condo.
22-24 points: Maybe you should think about buying a house.
Kyle Frazier, CRS (Christie's Great Estates | Morgan Lane International)
(415) 350-9440
Kyle Frazier, CRS
Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist
Broker Associate
Christie's Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate
Somebody e-mailed the below to me. It seems like good stuff, so I am passing it on....
Know the Difference between Cold and H1N1 Flu Symptoms
Fever Fever is rare with a cold. Fever is usually present with the flu in up to 80% of all flu cases. A temperature of 100 F or higher for 3 to 4 days is associated with the flu.
Coughing A hacking, productive (mucus- producing) cough is often present with a cold. A non-productive (non-mucus producing) cough is usually present with the flu (sometimes referred to as dry cough).
Aches Slight body aches and pains can be part of a cold. Severe aches and pains are common with the flu.
Stuffy Nose Stuffy nose is commonly present with a cold and typically resolves spontaneously within a week. Stuffy nose is not commonly present with the flu.
Chills Chills are uncommon with a cold. 60% of people who have the flu experience chills.
Tiredness Tiredness is fairly mild with a cold. Tiredness is moderate to severe with the flu.
Sneezing Sneezing is commonly present with a cold. Sneezing is not common with the flu.
Sudden Symptoms Cold symptoms tend to develop over a few days. The flu has a rapid onset within 3-6 hours. The flu hits hard and includes sudden symptoms like high fever, aches and pains.
Headache A headache is fairly uncommon with a cold. A headache is very common with the flu, present in 80% of flu cases.
Sore Throat Sore throat is commonly present with a cold. Sore throat is not commonly present with the flu.
Chest Discomfort Chest discomfort is mild to moderate with a cold. Chest discomfort is often severe with the flu.
The only portals of entry are the nostrils and mouth/throat. In a global epidemic of this nature, it's almost impossible not coming into contact with H1N1 in spite of all precautions. Contact with H1N1 is not so much of a problem as proliferation is.
While you are still healthy and not showing any symptoms of H1N1 infection, in order to prevent proliferation, aggravation of symptoms and development of secondary infections, some very simple steps, not fully highlighted in most official communications, can be practiced (instead of focusing on how to stock N95 or Tamiflu):
1. Frequent hand-washing (well highlighted in all official communications).
2. "Hands-off-the-face" approach. Resist all temptations to touch any part of face (unless you want to eat, bathe or slap).
3. *Gargle twice a day with warm salt water (use Listerine if you don't trust salt). *H1N1 takes 2-3 days after initial infection in the throat/nasal cavity to proliferate and show characteristic symptoms. Simple gargling prevents proliferation. In a way, gargling with salt water has the same effect on a healthy individual that Tamiflu has on an infected one. Don't underestimate this simple, inexpensive and powerful preventative method.
4. Similar to 3 above, *clean your nostrils at least once every day with warm salt water. *Not everybody may be good at using a Neti pot, but *blowing the nose hard once a day and swabbing both nostrils with cotton swabs dipped in warm salt water is very effective in bringing down viral population.*
5. *Boost your natural immunity with foods that are rich in Vitamin C. *If you have to supplement with Vitamin C tablets, make sure that it also has Zinc to boost absorption.
6. *Drink as much of warm liquids (tea, coffee, etc) as you can. *Drinking warm liquids has the same effect as gargling, but in the reverse direction. They wash off proliferating viruses from the throat into the stomach where they cannot survive, proliferate or do any harm.
Kyle Frazier, CRS
Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist
Broker Associate
Christie's Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate
An aging public pool at Hamilton Field, Novato is almost ready for a grand debut after a $5 million renovation. The pool is located across from Hamilton Field's "The Landing at Hamilton" new home development (which is set to break ground in coming months) and the existing neighborhood of South Gate.
The renovation was approved unanimously by the Novato City Council in November 2007 and final plans were approved in March 2008. The leaky old pool was not compliant with the Americans with Disabilities Act and access to its bathhouse was restricted by the Marin County health department.
The revamped facility at 206 El Bonito Road includes a main pool of 185,000 gallons and a shallow pool of 12,000 gallons. There is new decking, piping, lighting and landscaping plus bathhouses.
Solar power and water leaks that have been fixed will lead to considerable savings compared with costs of the old pool, but the city will have to pay the water bill that was previously paid by the U.S. Coast Guard.
Traditionally, Hamilton Pool has been open Memorial Day through the end of September. If a private operator is signed to a contract, it could be open year-round, Shinault said.
______________________________________
The above information was derived from an article in the Marin Independent Journal, 10/30/09. If you have any questions relating to Novato real estate, call Kyle Frazier at (415) 350-9440.
Kyle Frazier, CRS (Christies's Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate | Pacific Union International)
Kyle Frazier, CRS
Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist
Broker Associate
Christie's Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate
Real Estate information about Marin County, California--Mill Valley, Sausalito, Tiburon, Belvedere, Corte Madera, Larkspur, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, and Novato. Community descriptions, sales information, and more.
Disclaimer: ActiveRain Corp. does not necessarily endorse the real estate agents, loan officers and brokers listed on this site. These real estate profiles, blogs and blog entries are provided here as a courtesy to our visitors to help them make an informed decision when buying or selling a house. ActiveRain Corp. takes no responsibility for the content in these profiles, that are written by the members of this community.
at Armory Drive and the lagoon, San Rafael.
;)
;)
