If you are late making your mortgage payment, you are not alone! The most recent political ads seem to be telling us all two or three different stories. Dino Rossi's ads tell us the foreclosure filings in Washington State are double what they were last year at this time. Christine Gregoire's ads tell us that we are just fine and we are way below the national average. Here's the deal. Who cares?

Does anyone or has anyone ever cared what the average temperature of Washington state is? It looks as if Puyallup Short Sales, with the rest of the county, have a rolling average that is increasing. The month-to-month numbers seem to have dipped from August to September, but we all know that a single deviation from a trend does not a trend break.

The map below is interesting. I wonder if we ran a report that breaks out the number of new construction sales between 2002 and 2006 if we would see a positive correlation between total number of new construction sales and today's number of foreclosure filings by zip code.

Add to that an overlay of the number of today's short sales, by month, in Puyallup and see if the positive correlation holds. Hmmmm.

For real estate professionals this might be of interest if you work with homeowners in the Puyallup area.

If I live in Puyallup, I wouldn't care about these numbers, unless I thought I was going to be late on my mortgage payment, or have already missed payments. Then, I would wonder, "Do I qualify for a short sale?"

Check back early November to see if our numbers go up or down. Also, check back frequently as, The Local Market Expert frequently publishes local real estate activity reports for Puyallup, Tacoma, Spanaway and Pierce County.

This will be the first of a monthly Pierce County Short Sales Activity Report. Next month I will resume posting my monthly Pierce County Market Update and bi-weekly Market Pulse for Puyallup, Tacoma and Spanaway.

Pierce County currently has 6702 active listings. 725 of them are Short Sale candidates. That means 10.8% of the current inventory are short sales. Last month, there were 718 total closed residential sales and 81 of them were short. So, 11.28% of the closed sales were short. There are currently 1111 total pending residential sales in Pierce County and 281 of them are short. That means 25.29% of the total pending sales are short.

Two other interesting figures to pull from above are:

• Months worth of total inventory...9.34 months
• Consumption Rate: 16.57%**

Pierce County Short Sales are not going away anytime soon. They are obviously a force in the market and should not be ignored. This month the media, always the madly swinging pendulum, wants to tell everyone that "foreclosures in Washington are down ?% from last month"! Whoo hooo! Crack the champaign! Will somebody please explain to these idiots and all the sheep that are listening that one month does not a trend break! Never has. Never will.

We spent approximately six years borrowing buyers from the future. And now it's time to give some back. It's called a real estate cycle for a reason. All economies of scale have always had and will always have three seasons. And they ALWAYS happen in the same order. Boom. Bust. Recover. Duh.

The near future will see property values continue to decrease for a couple of reasons. Because of this, increased unemployment and a couple other factors Pierce County Short Sales will continue to increase.

If you are late on your payments, or think you might be soon, you are not alone and you have options.

Check back at the beginning of November for the next Short Sale Activity Report. 

**Under 45 here indicates a Buyers Market, 45 to 55 indicates a Transitional Market, 55+ indicates a Sellers Market

The month of September saw 391 Pierce County Foreclosure Sales. Sounds bad until we look at August. August saw 475. During the month of August 671 Pierce County homeowners received their first notice of default. Home prices are going down, foreclosures are going up, unemployment is going up, the stock market is going down, and elections seem to be up in the air.

How did we get here? What is really going on? And when will things get better? Read on and I will share my not-so-rosy perspective. I have always considered myself the eternal optimist. Today, I consider myself a sober blackhat.

How did we get here? We got here because we spent six years borrowing buyers from the future. What? How did we do that? Well, we didn't. Savvy equity traders at the global level wanted to create debt instruments that had a higher yield for investors so they created higher risk loans. Higher risk = higher yield. Then they bundled these high risk loans and sold them to investors, who sold them to other investors. These shaky, high paying instruments found their way around the world, kind of like the flu bug at your local day care.

This new family of loans was made available to borrowers that were still in their financial adolescence, some in their infancy. We put babies and pre-teens behind the wheel. That's a car destined to crash! Pierce County Foreclosure sales are on the rise because we borrowed buyers from our future. Today we are returning some of the buyers that we borrowed.

What is really going on? The global economy, the rise of unemployment, adjustable interest rates, an unprecedented number of foreclosures and elections still up in the air create an uncertain outlook at best.

It gets worse though. While we were borrowing buyers from the future by granting loans that never should have been, we were also sacrificing perfectly healthy adult borrowers from days gone by. How's that? Homeowners that purchased prior to 2002 and had equity developed the knack for refinancing between 2002 and 2006. They refinanced their homes to 100% or more LTV, and removed all of their equity. Today, many of these homeowners are falling victim to the dreadad adjustable rate. Down they go. And Pierce County Foreclosures go up another notch.

If the bills are piling up, the phone is ringing off the hook, and there's a chance that you might not be able to pay the next house payment in full, or you've already missed one...you are not alone. You have options.

If you live in Pierce County and are late on your mortgage payment(s), time is not on your side, we are. Or we can be.

When will things get better? Soon. Nothing seems to heal overnight but you may be able to avoid having a foreclosure on your credit record. Once you are late on your mortage you actually have several options that are less damaging than a foreclosure. Check out the Foreclosure Frequently Asked Questions. Get educated. Protect your future. Take back some control of your life.

At this point, you are only defeated when you give up. Don't give up YOUR future. Time is not on your side. We are. Take action today.
 

The Pierce County and Thurston County Market Updates have been an evolving tool since I began tracking the market in Thurston County approximately October of last year. It is my belief that the County Update combined with a slightly more local Monday Morning MARKET PULSE convey a very accurate assessment of the local and hyper~local real estate climate.

In order to make the most intelligent choices regarding your home and real estate investments I believe it is absolutely imperative that you have and are able to understand perfectly accurate and applicable LOCAL and HYPER~LOCAL real estate market statistics.

There is a TON of important and revealing data on the document below! So, rather than bore you with endless type, please click twice on the arrow below and then just listen.

If I do not explain something perfectly and/or you have more questions please feel free to call me or shoot me an email.

This is my first publication of the Monday Morning MARKET PULSE for Puyallup. I was the Team Leader and Business Coach at KW Olympia and have been doing the PULSE for Olympia for several months. Today I am serving home sellers and investors in my backyard (Puyallup).

This weeks MARKET PULSE reveals a very clear picture, lots of them actually. If you price your home between $200K and $250, there is plenty of purchase activity. If you're thinking that you need to list your home over $250, then your competition will be plentiful and the purchase activity slows, almost exponentially, as you climb the price ladder.

THIS IS THE WRONG TIME TO "TEST THE MARKET"! If your home price is not compelling, you simply will not get offers and you won't sell your home. No exceptions. Sorry.

Get professional pricing and staging advice from a REALTOR that is very familiar with the local market.

If you NEED to sell your home soon and you would like to know exactly what it will take to sell your home in this market, just shoot me an email or call me and we can chat.

Instructions: If you would like to hear a little of what I have to say about the Puyallup MARKET PULSE below, please click twice on the arrow in the Gabcast box, then make sure your speakers are on. That's it.

It's Monday again! The Monday Morning MARKET PULSE doesn't look all that bad today. The powerful message is not in the numbers in THE PULSE this week. This past week saw the most important development for residential real estate in the last 12 months! Interest rates went UP by almost a full quarter point. What does that mean for your buyers and sellers?

Buyers: The roller coaster that you were riding and waiting for the "bottom" just took a predictable JUMP! We know, most of us, that interest rates ALWAYS go down slowly and go UP quickly. So if you were looking at homes around $300K last week, your new monthly payment just WENT UP by about 55 bucks per month! The payment that you were budgeting for last week now buys you about $10K less home. OUCH.

Sellers: While you were waiting for Buyers to get antsy and make the offer for your home at the price that you were HOPING for, your home just got significantly more expensive. And you didn't do anything? What will this mean for your home's value should interest rates continue to climb? How important is pricing your home IN the market? Is your price comparative, competitive or is it actually compelling?

Did you miss the "bottom"? Ask your REALTOR about the impact rising interest rates could have on the sale of your home.

Here is the definative list of reasons why you should sell real estate and not  pay your REALTOR dues.
Buckle Up!

1.

There's your list. It took me hours, hundreds of hours of research and interviews, to come up with that list. I did not intentionally set out to ask people why they are not REALTORS.

Just thinking about the brokerages and agents who say that they would rather "save their money" and not join the professional association that protects them, their role in the local and national economy, and even their very income absolutely baffles me.

TIMES OF DURESS REVEAL TRUE COLORS AND VALUE

In an expanding market (that was 2002 through 2006), business appears to happen easily, houses seem to sell themselves, deals happen, money flows and the seeds of failure are sown.
True needs seem to be cloaked, met very easily or even disquised as assets.

In a consolidating market (NOW), business appears to slow, clients must be sought out, opportunity is elusive and the seeds of massive success are sown.
Old needs come back and NEW CHALLENGES AND NEEDS RAISE THEIR UGLY HEADS AND REVEAL THEMSELVES.

Your REALTOR association at the local, regional and state level is working nearly 24 hours a day RIGHT NOW on YOUR behalf in regards to the new consumer protection laws that go into effect on June 12 in Washington state. If you cannot afford to contribute to RPAC right now because of the consolidating market...GET CREATIVE! Hold a fund raiser, do something.

Grab that jar of pennies that you were saving for the next family trip and contribute that money AND MORE to RPAC because here's the deal... Without RPAC moving powerfully in the right direction on your behalf in the coming months YOU WON'T HAVE YOUR FAMILY TRIP NEXT YEAR! Period.

Any words to the contrary are the words of a fool. Was that too rough? :-)

Are those signs of life or just statistical anomolies caused by the dates that the data was drawn this month?
What is a "sign of life"? And what the heck is a "statistical anomoly"? And what is a MARKET PULSE?

Answers: The Thurston County MARKET PULSE is pretty much exactly that. A taking of the pulse of the market in Thurston County. A sign of life is breath from the dead, or a heartbeat in a flatline. I will explain both of these concepts and some of the other good, or not-so-good, stuff that I see in this week's MARKET PULSE.

Instructions: Please double click on the arrow next to the word PLAY then just listen. Be patient and make sure that your volume is turned up enough. Enjoy.

If your business is not thriving, it should be, and I can help.

I hope that you weren't holding your breath waiting for "the bounce"! What has always been a strong month on the real estate seasonality calendar saw a DROP in units sold in Thurston County this month. Last month we saw uniform numbers down the Absorption Rate column. This month a little of the character that we have gotten used to has come back a bit. I will talk about this and much more in the recording below.

Instructions: Just below you will see a Gabcast box. Just double click on the arrow next to the word PLAY and make sure that your volume is loud enough to hear. If you would like an editable copy just shoot me an email.

If your business isn't thriving, it should be. Shirl and I can help.
Ask Terry Mitchell, Susan Draper, Phil Harlan, Corey Feldon or Jorge Ruiz.

If you would rather listen than read, just double click on the arrow button next to the word PLAY on the gabcast box below.

Every Sunday night I document the real estate activity in Thurston County. In this report we track number of new active listings, total active listings, number of new pendings and total pendings, all categorized by price.

Although this report does not provide a complete picture of the market it is very helpful. With a quick glance you can see where the inventory is stacking up, where it is selling, the rate at which it is selling and the rate at which new properties are coming on the market. If a real estate professional wanted to get really down and dirty she would compile a report like this for a specific town, geographic area or mls area and then sort out new construction. Three reports would probably be best: New Construction, Resale and Combined. If you create one please shoot it over to me. Thank You.

If the largest appreciating asset that most Americans ever own is ON SALE then it is time to buy!
A Buyer's Market is a skill-based market.