Somtimes it can be hard to know where you are going if you don't know where you have been. I hope this saying applies to the Phoenix Real Estate Market. Many folks are claiming these days that prices in our market are "low". What does this mean? What are they low in comparison to? Can they go lower? Will we see price appreciation in the near future?
Lets first take a look at a very relevant data set - the Median Resale Price for properties in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area since the beginning of 2001. The data is courtesy of ARMLS and deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Quite the hump in this data in the 2004-2007 timeframe. Obviously (hindsight certainly is 20/20). But where are we TODAY? The median resale price has been holding steady, if not going up marginally, the past few months of 2009. Notice that we are in a place very similar to the price regime of early 2001.
Do I know if we will see extensive price appreciation in the near future? I do not - and I do not expect it.
Do I know if we will see further 20-25% drops in price? I do not - and I do not expecct it.
Personally, I think we are, +/-, at the bottom, and will stay there for some time. Prices are so low (especially in the <200k price segment) that it is unlikely there will be substantial drops. Then again, the economy is so weak, it would seem difficult for more and more buyers to jump in than are already in the market. What does this mean? An extended buying opportunity for those with the right credit/cash situation - these folks should be rewarded handsomly when the economy picks up over time.
Mind you, I don't have a crystal ball and these are just my guesses. If I could predict the future, I'd be quite a bit wealthier :)
Thanks for reading,
Kaushik Sirkar
Chandler AZ Real Estate
ksirkar@hotmail.com
http://www.homesphx.com
480-600-2808 (direct)
480-993-0914 (fax)
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