The Housing Crisis is Over! My Phone is Ringing.

Yesterday my phone started ringing after an article in the Wall Street Journal announced that the housing crisis was over. Is it true? What do you think? Should I buy a home now? What can I get a 3 bedroom home for in Phoenix?  Two emails followed from clients who had taken their homes off the market at the beginning of the year inquiring about the listing inventory, which is also slowly declining.

The article, The Housing Crisis is Over?, from the Wall Street Journal, reports that Cyril Moulle-Bertaux suggests that April 2008 marked the bottom of the U.S. housing market.  And in his R.O.I. column WSJ's Brett Arends makes a similar argument. He looks at the data on housing starts since 1972, which shows that new housing starts slumped below the one million mark in March. Every time that has happened in the last 50 years, Mr. Arends writes, it proved to be the bottom of a recession. Mr. Arends points out that Bill Wheaton, a legendary real-estate professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has also suggested that fears about the real-estate crash were overdone. And he points to a private portfolio manager in London, who said the homebuilding stocks on Wall Street were at last a "buy." In the Journal editorial, Mr. Moulle-Bertaux suggests that the housing market will revive, as more first-time buyers are lured in by falling prices and lower mortgage rates. "Homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s," he writes. "Numerous households that had been priced out of the market can now afford to get in."

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."

SO DO WE BELIEVE IT? Thats what my clients were asking me.  All I can tell you is what I have seen and heard.

1. My listings are showing now more than they did a month ago

2. A lender told me yesterday he has clients pre-qualified that have not been able to secure a property due to multiple offers

3. A home inspector told me yesterday that he has clients who have him waiting to do an inspection but they too are losing out to multiple offers.

4. Obtaining an FHA loan still seems to take forever, and availability of funds is still difficult.

SO WHAT I READ AND WHAT I HEAR, AND WHAT I AM EXPERIENCING ALL SUPPORT EACH OTHER

My feeling is that if your were waiting for the bottom to hit, your wait might be over.  I dont expect a dramatic increase in activity but a slow and steady climb.  I know there will be naysayers, but there does seem to be some statistics to back up these claims.  Homes sales in the Phoenix market have been rising since February. If the homes that are currently pending a close of escrow do indeed close, then April and May look good as well.

So now the question will be, how long will we ride the bottom, before the next upswing?  Wait a minute, let me get my crystal ball.

Update: Real Estate Market in Phoenix

As and agent I am continually viewing statistics of the market conditions in Phoenix, Scottsdale and the surrounding areas. I have compiled some current statistics (with a little help) and put together this presentation for you to view. Unlike what you will hear on the news, these are not statistics from the last quarter, they are as recent as the end of March 2008, one month ago. I hope you find them useful when making decisions in regards to Selling, Buying a home in Phoenix or elsewhere in the Valley of the Sun.

DISCLAIMER: "Best Viewed with the Mozilla Firefox Browser. Internet Explorer Users, Click on the Magnifying Glass and use the "slide tool" to resize this presentation in the Blog Post Window."

Do You Like Living in Arizona?

Do You Like Living in Arizona?

Today while I was showing homes in Phoenix, a client asked me if I liked living in Phoenix or Arizona in general.  While she was coming from California, she knew the price of homes in Phoenix, Scottsdale or any surrounding area are so much less than many parts of the country.  But, what was it like to live here?

Hmmm? 

I had to tell her that while coming from Michigan 30 years ago at first I missed the green and the abundant lakes, but when I returned to visit Michigan a year later I yearned for the expansive skies and the beautiful mountains.  Until I had experienced desert living, I never knew what “purple mountain majesties” meant.

I don’t miss shoveling snow, or the long gray period at the end of the winter before the spring takes a strong hold.  Though it was warm enough to dispense of the boots it was so slushy my shoes were always wet.

And oh yeah, no mosquitoes, that I don’t miss either.

So what do I love about Arizona?

I love the long warm  winters with cool evenings where I can sit outside and have a glass of wine and chat with my friends or neighbors.

The sunsets are absolutely gorgeous, I think they beat most anywhere.

I love the subtle pale shades of the mountains and how they transform from brown in the summer to green with sprinkling of yellow, pink and white flowers in the spring. The mountains change color during the day depending on the angle of the sun. 

I love all the hiking trails in the preserved mountain areas all over the Phoenix metropolitan area.  I like to hike the "Go-John" trail in Cave Creek, or Pinnacle Peak, and so many other in-town trails. Nothing beats the serenity and beauty of the Grand Canyon. The drive from the valley to the Grand Canyon ventures thru red rock country, pine mountains and historic landmarks of the old west.

I love that I can ski all day nearby and return home to grill chicken or steaks in my backyard within hours.

I enjoy the sense of history and the cultural diversity.  You can drive for miles and not see anything but beauty.  Most states are so crammed up with people that you cant tell when you’ve left one town and entered another.                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

 I have raised two children here, and they had a good K-12 education and both enjoyed 2 different but challenging and exciting colleges here in Valley of the Sun. I was never at a loss for something to do with them. The Valley of the Sun offers so much for families.                    

 And when it does warm up, I can drive 6 hours and go to beach in either San Diego or Los Angeles, if I want to fly, by the time they get the drink cart down the aisle, I’m there!                                                                                                                                                                                         

Mexico is three hours away for lots of sun, water, fishing and fun.         

Vegas Baby!  Only a short airplane ride or a 5 hour drive.

I realized while talking with my clients and driving around the

valley looking at homes that ...

Yes, I like living in Arizona!

Karen Turney/ Desert Living Blog/Phoenix Realtor

AND THE RACE TO THE SUMMER HEAT IS ON! WHEN WILL IT HIT 100?

Only Arizonans know that:

Asphalt has a liquid state, Pot holders are good for steering wheels and retrieving open house signs,  Shade is what location, location, location means in parking spots.  You have become an Arizonan when you dont leave the house without your sunglasses, dont get in the pool until it hits 100 degrees, and you would bust open a car window if anyone left their pet or child in the car for even a second. You are an Arizonan Realtor when you carry 2 sets of keys and leave the car running with the AC on full blast while you show a home.

So let's predict 

Ok Arizonans, the time is here for your predictions.  This weekend is expected to reach 98 degrees with the 3 digit temperatures to follow. So the big question is WHEN?  Send me your predictions and I will post the winner on my blog unless I get heat stroke, and then I will count on you to remind me. 

Hang in there and remember when it heats up, Real Estate does too!! Go figure.

1413 W Wagoner Rd, Phoenix Arizona 85023

        CRISP AND CLEAN, MOVE IN READY, SPLIT 3 BEDROOM FLOORPLAN

PRICED WELL AT $218,000

Three bedrooms

Two Baths

Plantation Shutters

Open Family room

Formal Living room

Large Master

Full Length Covered Patio

1539 square feet

Desert Landscaping

Walk to Elem School

KAREN TURNEY

REALTY EXECUTIVES

602-999-2742

CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION

ARE WE THERE YET??

Lately, my clients and others who find out that I am in Real Estate keep asking me: Have we hit the bottom of the market yet? I get asked so often it seems similar to the never ending car trip question. Are we there yet?

When you are in the car you can point out the mile markers and judge how far you need to go to reach "there".  In Real Estate we have our mile markers, but there are many road blocks as well.  One of the blocks seems to be the media and its interpretation of the market.  Unfortunately since the press usually uses a variety of prognosticators, most of which have never shown or sold a home.  The markers used are usually last quarters statistics as indicators of the journey.  By the time you have digested all of the stats the market could very well be different.  I often wonder why the media uses economists, professors, and last quarter statistics.  Personally even when I want the answers to the market, I ask my fellow Realtors, seems simple to me, go to the source, the expert in the field.  In todays world it seems that so many people use the media to tell them what the answers are to all their questions.  But they are not in the business to actually sell you a home or negotiate the best transaction, seems silly to take their word for it.  I think they really don't care about you, they care about ratings, units sold and the bottom line for them.

So I tell my clients to stop listening to the media and to ask real estate questions of real estate professionals, lenders and title company representative. So are we there yet?  Here in the greater Phoenix area, I think we are bumping along the bottom. Picture a plane trying to get lift, skipping along the runway and then eventually lifting off.  Our inventory is slowly going down, rates are wonderful and as usually the sun always comes out after a rain, eventually.

Have a safe and happy trip! Real Estate is part of everyone's journey, ride with someone who is dedicated to make the trip enjoyable and trouble free!

Karen Turney/Homes in the greater Phoenix Area

Optomism and an Uncluttered Life

I have been in Real Estate for 23 years this May and I have survived down markets and high markets.

Sometimes even if you remodel your entire business and call every living soul you have ever known or worked with, it won't create the business you want, sometimes the market is just plain adjusting, and the momentum is slow.

The only way to survive that is to be optomistic.  Now in the past I have sweated every minute wondering where the next listing or sale would come from, what if it didnt come etc...

But after a lot of years on this roller coaster I have learned to enjoy the ride and keep on it.  Be optomistic, this slow down will pass.  The good news is if you stick with this business long enough and build trust among your clients you will have enough referral business to make it through until things start humming again.

So what about the clutter? Lets face it when it's busy we neglect other things.  So while we wait for the sure thing (a steady and busy market) unclutter your life.  Right now my garage is a work of art, my closets look  wonderful, I have staged my entire home!   I have no intentions of selling but I have stayed busy in my spare time working on all the things in my business that I always wish I could spend more time on.

So, lately I have worked on staging. I spent time on marketing, my new website is being converted and should be live soon, my newsletter is revamped and most of all I keep optomistic by connecting with positive people.  When I run into a negative realtor, I cant run fast enough, I dont need to think that way!!  Life is great, business is great, sometimes abundance comes at times you can't control.  So get on the ride, keep smiling

Karen Turney "It's a Good Move" www.karenturney.com  Arizona real estate