For people trying to time the mortgage market for the best rate, clues about the future of mortgage rates may be at the local gas station.

Rising gas prices are indicative of the rising cost of energy and, indeed, crude oil appears to be on a continual rise upward.  As these energy costs grow, so do inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy.

Inflation, of course, is awful for mortgage rates. When it's present, mortgage markets deteriorate and rates tend to rise -- often sharply and with little advance warning.

So, for today's homebuyers-in-process and would-be refinancers, prices at the pump may foreshadow bad news for the future of housing affordability.  Even a modest, quarter-percent increase would have a palpable effect on payments, adding $372 in annual costs to a $200,000 home loan.

The Pareto Principle is a statistical concept most commonly known as the 80/20 Rule. 

It says 80 percent of the effects come from 20 of the causes.

Apparently, the 80/20 Rule applies to foreclosures, too -- at least according to data compiled by foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.

Based on data from May, 11 states accounted for 80% of the country's foreclosure activity. The remaining 20% was spread across the 39 others.

That's 80/20 almost to the tee.

The disparity goes deeper that that, though.  The top three states in RealtyTrac's list -- California, Florida, Nevada -- were home to half of May's foreclosure-related actions.

Clearly, foreclosures are concentrated in certain geographies.

But, no matter in which state you live, foreclosures still impact you.  This is because mortgage lenders are often national companies, lending in all 50 states.  

When home loans go bad -- in any state -- lenders respond by increasing downpayment requirements and by adding new borrowing hurdles.  If you've applied for a mortgage in the last 18 months, you've experienced this phenomenon personally.

On the other side, if you're a home buyer in a foreclosure-heavy state, you're finding terrific value versus several years ago.  It's one reason why Existing Home Sales in the West Region are up by 19 percent from last year, for example.

Tighter mortgage guidelines since late-2008 are forcing home buyers to make bigger downpayments.  Anecdotally, the change has led to a surge in buyers taking gifts of cash from family members.

If you're among those accepting a cash gift from family, it's important to know that you can't just deposit the money in your bank account. 

There is a proper way to accept a cash gift and it requires 3 distinct steps:

1. Complete and sign an acceptable gift letter
2. Document the gifter's withdrawal of funds with teller receipts
3. Document the giftee's deposit of funds with teller receipts

See, mortgage lenders pay close attention to gifts-for-downpayments.  For one, lenders have to make sure that downpayment cash is "clean" (i.e. not laundered).  And, secondly, they want the gift to really be a gift and not a loan-in-disguise.

This is why lenders will often require that a signed, dated letter accompany the home loan application. 

As an example:

I am the [relationship to recipient] of [name of recipient] and this letter serves as evidence that I am gifting [name of recipient] [amount of gift] to be used for the purchase of the home at [complete address of property].

This is a gift -- not a loan -- and there is no expectation of repayment.

Signed, 
[Signature of gifter]

To further appease lenders, gift recipients should make sure that gift funds are not commingled at the time of deposit.  If the gift is for $12,000, for example, the bank's deposit slip should indicate that a $12,000 deposit was made -- nothing more, nothing less. 

Don't add a random $50 check to the deposit, in other words.  If you have a separate deposit to make, make it as a subsequent transaction with its own receipt.

It's also worth noting that gifting funds between family members can create both legal and tax liabilities.  If you're unsure about how donating or receiving a gift may impact you, call or email me directly.  If I can't help you with your questions, I can refer you to somebody that can.

Since Memorial Day, conforming mortgage rates have jumped by more than 1.125 percent, adding thousands of dollars to the annual cost of homeownership.

To the casual observer, the moves may seem random.  There's a reason this is happening, however. 

It starts with inflation.

As an economic force, inflation erodes the value of the U.S. Dollar.  Left unchecked, it drives up the Cost of Living as each dollar "buys less" at the supermarket, gas station, or anywhere else.

But with respect to mortgage rates, inflation's impact is more immediate.  Because inflation devalues the dollar over the long-term, it renders long-term mortgage bonds a less attractive investment for traders. 

If bond investors are repaid in U.S. Dollars, after all, it would make the investment worth less if the dollar is in an inflationary freefall. 

Therefore, in situations when inflation is likely to present, we find that traders often sell out of their mortgage bond positions which, in turn, drives down the bond prices.  Then, because bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices, rising rates are the inevitable result.

Lately, Wall Street is fearing inflation for a number of reasons:

1. Job losses are slowing, adding to consumer spending expectations
2. Gas prices have risen 41 days in a row
3. The federal government is increasing the money supply

These 3 factors -- plus a few others -- are all coming to a head around the same time and traders are getting defensive with their portfolios.  As a result, they're selling their mortgage bond positions and it's driving mortgage rates higher.

Rates may continue to trek toward 7 percent through July and August, or they may retreat toward 5 percent.  We can't know for sure.  What we can know, though, is that volatility in rates should continue until the economic picture gets more clear. That could be next week, or next year.

For now, be ready to lock at a moment's notice.  Mortgage rates are changing quickly.

Shopping for low mortgage rates is a game of luck. 

Some days, mortgage rates are favorable.  Other days, they're not.  And while you can sometimes make an educated guess about where rates might be headed, you're not always going to guess right.

Even the experts get it wrong more often than they'd like.

But some parts of the rate shopping process can be predicted and one of them is the future of mortgage guidelines. 

In general, the more often homeowners default on their respective mortgages, the harder it is for future mortgage applicants to be approved.

This is why "now" may be the best time to apply for a FHA mortgage.  Defaults are climbing, suggesting that FHA underwriting guidelines are about to tighten.

Indeed, the FHA has implemented two major changes since last summer:

1. The minimum downpayment requirement was raised by a half-percent to 3.5%
2. Cash out refinances are now limited to 85 percent, down from 95 percent.

These changes create barriers to entry for potential FHA borrowers, improving the overall quality of the FHA loan pool. 

For a taxpayer-funded agency like FHA, loan performance is an important goal.  Therefore, as the number of defaults grows, expect FHA guideline to get tighter.

The problem is, though, we can't predict just where the FHA will tighten.  Maybe the FHA raises its minimum FICO score requirement, or maybe it gets tough on seller-paid closing costs.  A hike in loan fees isn't out of the question, either -- that's the path Fannie Mae took, after all.

Whatever the FHA does, fewer people will qualify for FHA mortgages once it's done.  So, if you're planning to buy a home and your downpayment is limited, or your credit scores are suspect, or there's some other "red flag" in your profile, consider moving up your timeframe to act. 

Mortgage rates may rise or mortgage rates may fall, but neither is going to matter if you can't get qualified for a home loan.  And, for FHA mortgage applicants, tougher mortgage guidelines are only a matter of time.

Since 2007, foreclosures have dominated real estate news.  You can't turn on the news or open a paper without some foreclosure-related story. 

But for all of the discussion, foreclosures continue to be geographically concentrated. 

Adding up the latest stats from RealtyTrac.com, more than half of the country's foreclosure actions from March occurred in just 3 states -- California, Florida and Nevada.

Those 3 states represent just 19 percent of the nation's population.

Despite the local concentration of foreclosures, however, they remain a national problem.  This is because mortgage lenders lend in all 50 states -- not just 3 of them -- so the impact of mortgage defaults in one region can quickly spread to others.

In part, because the number of foreclosures are higher, the following has happened:

• Mortgage guidelines have tightened
• Downpayment requirements have increased
• Private mortgage insurance has become more expensive

That's an important set of changes for a would-be borrower.  In some cases, it can keep a person from qualifying.

Search the March 2009 foreclosure report for yourself on RealtyTrac.com's website.

In a week in which mortgage markets struggled to find direction, mortgage rates edged higher overall.  The weekly increase was the first since mid-November and it may signal higher rates as we head into 2009.

The week's most talked-about story hit the wires Friday. 

According to the government, the U.S. economy shed 533,000 jobs last month and the national Unemployment Rate rose to 6.7%.  This was the largest number of jobs lost in any one month since the recession of 1974.

In a normal market, job losses of this magnitude would have caused stock markets and mortgage rates to fall.  But stocks and rates didn't fall Friday.  To the contrary, both rose.  This is because -- while the jobs reports was the most talked-about story last week -- it wasn't the most important one.  That story had already been told.

Last Monday -- officially -- we learned that U.S. economy is in recession.

Although most of Wall Street knew it already, the official determination was an acknowledgement that "bad economic data" is not only acceptable, but normal given the current conditions. 

In other words, when the jobs data was released Friday morning, one reason why mortgage rates rose was because markets somewhat shrugged off the data, saying: "Yeah, of course job losses are up -- we're in a recession, after all."

This is an unfortunate development for rate shoppers because bad data usually anchors mortgage rates lower.  Going forward, that won't likely be the case -- at least until the recession is declared to be over.

This week, without much new data being released, markets should trade largely on news of federal intervention and expectations for the U.S. economy.  As retail sales figures drip in from the weekend, be wary of stronger-than-expected numbers as that could pull mortgage rates higher.  The same goes for Friday's official Retail Sales data for November.

Either way, expect volatility throughout the week -- same as we've seen all year long.

Earlier this year and under pressure from the government, mortgage lenders made more than 200,000 loan modifications to delinquent homeowners.

The modifications came in one of three forms, or a combination:

1. Interest rate reduction
2. Loan term extension
3. Principal forgiveness

But despite the modifications, as of October 1, more than half of the homeowners that received assistance were already two months behind on theirmodified monthly payments. 

This late-pay statistic was a focal point on Capitol Hill yesterday as the government admitted delinquencies "were larger than [they] thought they'd be".  Loan modifications are proving inadequate at slowing foreclosures and yesterday's session opened the door to more effective foreclosure prevention measures.

However, of all of the statistics published, there was one of particular interest.   

Based on its loan modifications to-date, the FDIC has found that modified borrowers default far less when new monthly payments are less than 38 percent of monthly household income.  This is important because Freddie Mac guidelines for ordinary mortgage applicants currently cap that rate at 45 percent.

If the 38 percent figure holds up long-term, it may lead mortgage lenders to permenantly reduce maximum debt-to-income allowances.  Already, mortgage insurers have taken this step so it's not out of the question for lenders.  Tighter guidelines mean fewer mortgage approvals.

If you're unsure of whether now is a good time to buy a home, consider that mortgage rates are low, mortgage guidelines are tightening, and foreclosure prevention efforts reduce the supply of available homes.

Prices may not have bottomed, but the market is giving everyone a lot of reasons to consider buying now.

For most Americans, mortgage interest paid on a home loan is tax-deductible in the year in which it was paid. 

With advance planning, therefore, homeowners can increase their 2008 tax deductions and limit their tax liability on April 15.

The key is to make the January 2009 mortgage payment before the New Year begins.

In making the payment in 2008, the payment's mortgage interest is applied against thisyear's tax deductions instead of next year's.  And lest you think you're paying "in advance", remember that mortgage interest is paid in arrears; a payment due January 1 accounts for interest that accumulated in December 2008 anyway. 

Tax planning is a complicated issue and not all homeowners will qualify for mortgage interest tax deductions. Check with your tax professional before making tax planning decisions.

If you don't have an accountant you trust, call or email me anytime; I'm happy to make a recommendation to you.

Business television and newspapers have made deflation a hot topic this week and, since Monday, Google has tracked 13,000 mentions of it.

Deflation is a recurring cycle in which the prices of goods and services fall. Isolated to one industry or sector, falling prices is the natural result of competition. 

For example, when DVD players were first introduced, they were tagged at $800. 

Today, you can buy them for less than $20. 

Across many industries, however, and happening at the same time, falling prices can shut down the economy.  Rather than buy things on the cheap, people stop buying anything at all.  And why would they?  The same items will cost less tomorrow.

And this is the problem with deflation -- it halts consumer spending and consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.  When it stops, the economic result is dwindling corporate revenues which leads to:

1. Layoffs of the workforce, which leads to...
2. Less consumer spending, which leads to...
3. Dwindling corporate revenues, which leads to...

And the spiral continues. 

Deflation can be much more insidious that its expansionary counterpart -- inflation.  Inflation is when the prices generally rise over time and it's an economic condition through which governments can comfortably navigate.  Deflation, on the other hand, is more rare and, therefore, fewer practical control measures exist.

Whether the U.S. economy will slip into deflation is a matter of debate. 

The Fed has cut the Fed Funds Rate to promote economic growth and those changes can take up to 12 months to work their way through the economy.  Deflationary pressures we're seeing today, in other words, may have already been addressed and corrected by Ben Bernanke's 10 rate cuts in the last 14 months.

Until the market figures it out, though, expect that each mention of deflation will hurt the stock market and help the bond market -- including the mortgage-backed variety.  This should help lower mortgage rates and make homes more affordable.