Kevin's Blog

Gas Stations Leave Clues About Future Mortgage Rates

Universal Home Mortgage — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 07:52:54 -0500

For people trying to time the mortgage market for the best rate, clues about the future of mortgage rates may be at the local gas station.

Rising gas prices are indicative of the rising cost of energy and, indeed, crude oil appears to be on a continual rise upward. As these energy costs grow, so do inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy.

Inflation, of course, is awful for mortgage rates. When it's present, mortgage markets deteriorate and rates tend to rise -- often sharply and with little advance warning.

So, for today's homebuyers-in-process and would-be refinancers, prices at the pump may foreshadow bad news for the future of housing affordability. Even a modest, quarter-percent increase would have a palpable effect on payments, adding $372 in annual costs to a $200,000 home loan.

The Pareto Principle Applies to Foreclosures: 80 Percent Occur in 20 Percent of States

Universal Home Mortgage — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 07:41:13 -0500

The Pareto Principle is a statistical concept most commonly known as the 80/20 Rule.

It says 80 percent of the effects come from 20 of the causes.

Apparently, the 80/20 Rule applies to foreclosures, too -- at least according to data compiled by foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.

Based on data from May, 11 states accounted for 80% of the country's foreclosure activity. The remaining 20% was spread across the 39 others.

That's 80/20 almost to the tee.

The disparity goes deeper that that, though. The top three states in RealtyTrac's list -- California, Florida, Nevada -- were home to half of May's foreclosure-related actions.

Clearly, foreclosures are concentrated in certain geographies.

But, no matter in which state you live, foreclosures still impact you. This is because mortgage lenders are often national companies, lending in all 50 states.

When home loans go bad -- in any state -- lenders respond by increasing downpayment requirements and by adding new borrowing hurdles. If you've applied for a mortgage in the last 18 months, you've experienced this phenomenon personally.

On the other side, if you're a home buyer in a foreclosure-heavy state, you're finding terrific value versus several years ago. It's one reason why Existing Home Sales in the West Region are up by 19 percent from last year, for example.

Receiving Cash as a Gift for Downpayment

Universal Home Mortgage — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 07:39:07 -0500

Tighter mortgage guidelines since late-2008 are forcing home buyers to make bigger downpayments. Anecdotally, the change has led to a surge in buyers taking gifts of cash from family members.

If you're among those accepting a cash gift from family, it's important to know that you can't just deposit the money in your bank account.

There is a proper way to accept a cash gift and it requires 3 distinct steps:

Complete and sign an acceptable gift letter
Document the gifter's withdrawal of funds with teller receipts
Document the giftee's deposit of funds with teller receipts

See, mortgage lenders pay close attention to gifts-for-downpayments. For one, lenders have to make sure that downpayment cash is "clean" (i.e. not laundered). And, secondly, they want the gift to really be a gift and not a loan-in-disguise.

This is why lenders will often require that a signed, dated letter accompany the home loan application.

As an example:

I am the [relationship to recipient] of [name of recipient] and this letter serves as evidence that I am gifting [name of recipient] [amount of gift] to be used for the purchase of the home at [complete address of property].

This is a gift -- not a loan -- and there is no expectation of repayment.

Signed,
[Signature of gifter]

To further appease lenders, gift recipients should make sure that gift funds are not commingled at the time of deposit. If the gift is for $12,000, for example, the bank's deposit slip should indicate that a $12,000 deposit was made -- nothing more, nothing less.

Don't add a random $50 check to the deposit, in other words. If you have a separate deposit to make, make it as a subsequent transaction with its own receipt.

It's also worth noting that gifting funds between family members can create both legal and tax liabilities. If you're unsure about how donating or receiving a gift may impact you, call or email me directly. If I can't help you with your questions, I can refer you to somebody that can.

Why Rates Have Gone Up

Universal Home Mortgage — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 07:36:43 -0500

Since Memorial Day, conforming mortgage rates have jumped by more than 1.125 percent, adding thousands of dollars to the annual cost of homeownership.

To the casual observer, the moves may seem random. There's a reason this is happening, however.

It starts with inflation.

As an economic force, inflation erodes the value of the U.S. Dollar. Left unchecked, it drives up the Cost of Living as each dollar "buys less" at the supermarket, gas station, or anywhere else.

But with respect to mortgage rates, inflation's impact is more immediate. Because inflation devalues the dollar over the long-term, it renders long-term mortgage bonds a less attractive investment for traders.

If bond investors are repaid in U.S. Dollars, after all, it would make the investment worth less if the dollar is in an inflationary freefall.

Therefore, in situations when inflation is likely to present, we find that traders often sell out of their mortgage bond positions which, in turn, drives down the bond prices. Then, because bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices, rising rates are the inevitable result.

Lately, Wall Street is fearing inflation for a number of reasons:

Job losses are slowing, adding to consumer spending expectations
Gas prices have risen 41 days in a row
The federal government is increasing the money supply

These 3 factors -- plus a few others -- are all coming to a head around the same time and traders are getting defensive with their portfolios. As a result, they're selling their mortgage bond positions and it's driving mortgage rates higher.

Rates may continue to trek toward 7 percent through July and August, or they may retreat toward 5 percent. We can't know for sure. What we can know, though, is that volatility in rates should continue until the economic picture gets more clear. That could be next week, or next year.

For now, be ready to lock at a moment's notice. Mortgage rates are changing quickly.

Now May Be The Best Time To Get An FHA Loan

Universal Home Mortgage — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 09:29:05 -0500

Shopping for low mortgage rates is a game of luck.

Some days, mortgage rates are favorable. Other days, they're not. And while you can sometimes make an educated guess about where rates might be headed, you're not always going to guess right.

Even the experts get it wrong more often than they'd like.

But some parts of the rate shopping process can be predicted and one of them is the future of mortgage guidelines.

In general, the more often homeowners default on their respective mortgages, the harder it is for future mortgage applicants to be approved.

This is why "now" may be the best time to apply for a FHA mortgage. Defaults are climbing, suggesting that FHA underwriting guidelines are about to tighten.

Indeed, the FHA has implemented two major changes since last summer:

The minimum downpayment requirement was raised by a half-percent to 3.5%
Cash out refinances are now limited to 85 percent, down from 95 percent.

These changes create barriers to entry for potential FHA borrowers, improving the overall quality of the FHA loan pool.

For a taxpayer-funded agency like FHA, loan performance is an important goal. Therefore, as the number of defaults grows, expect FHA guideline to get tighter.

The problem is, though, we can't predict just where the FHA will tighten. Maybe the FHA raises its minimum FICO score requirement, or maybe it gets tough on seller-paid closing costs. A hike in loan fees isn't out of the question, either -- that's the path Fannie Mae took, after all.

Whatever the FHA does, fewer people will qualify for FHA mortgages once it's done. So, if you're planning to buy a home and your downpayment is limited, or your credit scores are suspect, or there's some other "red flag" in your profile, consider moving up your timeframe to act.

Mortgage rates may rise or mortgage rates may fall, but neither is going to matter if you can't get qualified for a home loan. And, for FHA mortgage applicants, tougher mortgage guidelines are only a matter of time.

Three States Accounted For 50% of Foreclosures in March 2009

Universal Home Mortgage — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 09:25:58 -0500

Since 2007, foreclosures have dominated real estate news. You can't turn on the news or open a paper without some foreclosure-related story.

But for all of the discussion, foreclosures continue to be geographically concentrated.

Adding up the latest stats from RealtyTrac.com, more than half of the country's foreclosure actions from March occurred in just 3 states -- California, Florida and Nevada.

Those 3 states represent just 19 percent of the nation's population.

Despite the local concentration of foreclosures, however, they remain a national problem. This is because mortgage lenders lend in all 50 states -- not just 3 of them -- so the impact of mortgage defaults in one region can quickly spread to others.

In part, because the number of foreclosures are higher, the following has happened:

Mortgage guidelines have tightened
Downpayment requirements have increased
Private mortgage insurance has become more expensive

That's an important set of changes for a would-be borrower. In some cases, it can keep a person from qualifying.

Search the March 2009 foreclosure report for yourself on RealtyTrac.com's website.

Mortgage Market Weekly Review

Universal Home Mortgage — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 22:55:41 -0600

In a week in which mortgage markets struggled to find direction, mortgage rates edged higher overall. The weekly increase was the first since mid-November and it may signal higher rates as we head into 2009.

The week's most talked-about story hit the wires Friday.

According to the government, the U.S. economy shed 533,000 jobs last month and the national Unemployment Rate rose to 6.7%. This was the largest number of jobs lost in any one month since the recession of 1974.

In a normal market, job losses of this magnitude would have caused stock markets and mortgage rates to fall. But stocks and rates didn't fall Friday. To the contrary, both rose. This is because -- while the jobs reports was the most talked-about story last week -- it wasn't the most important one. That story had already been told.

Last Monday -- officially -- we learned that U.S. economy is in recession.

Although most of Wall Street knew it already, the official determination was an acknowledgement that "bad economic data" is not only acceptable, but normal given the current conditions.

In other words, when the jobs data was released Friday morning, one reason why mortgage rates rose was because markets somewhat shrugged off the data, saying: "Yeah, of course job losses are up -- we're in a recession, after all."

This is an unfortunate development for rate shoppers because bad data usually anchors mortgage rates lower. Going forward, that won't likely be the case -- at least until the recession is declared to be over.

This week, without much new data being released, markets should trade largely on news of federal intervention and expectations for the U.S. economy. As retail sales figures drip in from the weekend, be wary of stronger-than-expected numbers as that could pull mortgage rates higher. The same goes for Friday's official Retail Sales data for November.

Either way, expect volatility throughout the week -- same as we've seen all year long.

Workouts Aren't Working Out

Universal Home Mortgage — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 22:53:09 -0600

Earlier this year and under pressure from the government, mortgage lenders made more than 200,000 loan modifications to delinquent homeowners.

The modifications came in one of three forms, or a combination:

Interest rate reduction
Loan term extension
Principal forgiveness

But despite the modifications, as of October 1, more than half of the homeowners that received assistance were already two months behind on theirmodified monthly payments.

This late-pay statistic was a focal point on Capitol Hill yesterday as the government admitted delinquencies "were larger than [they] thought they'd be". Loan modifications are proving inadequate at slowing foreclosures and yesterday's session opened the door to more effective foreclosure prevention measures.

However, of all of the statistics published, there was one of particular interest.

Based on its loan modifications to-date, the FDIC has found that modified borrowers default far less when new monthly payments are less than 38 percent of monthly household income. This is important because Freddie Mac guidelines for ordinary mortgage applicants currently cap that rate at 45 percent.

If the 38 percent figure holds up long-term, it may lead mortgage lenders to permenantly reduce maximum debt-to-income allowances. Already, mortgage insurers have taken this step so it's not out of the question for lenders. Tighter guidelines mean fewer mortgage approvals.

If you're unsure of whether now is a good time to buy a home, consider that mortgage rates are low, mortgage guidelines are tightening, and foreclosure prevention efforts reduce the supply of available homes.

Prices may not have bottomed, but the market is giving everyone a lot of reasons to consider buying now.

Get a Tax Deduction By Paying Your Mortgage Early

Universal Home Mortgage — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 22:51:03 -0600

For most Americans, mortgage interest paid on a home loan is tax-deductible in the year in which it was paid.

With advance planning, therefore, homeowners can increase their 2008 tax deductions and limit their tax liability on April 15.

The key is to make the January 2009 mortgage payment before the New Year begins.

In making the payment in 2008, the payment's mortgage interest is applied against thisyear's tax deductions instead of next year's. And lest you think you're paying "in advance", remember that mortgage interest is paid in arrears; a payment due January 1 accounts for interest that accumulated in December 2008 anyway.

Tax planning is a complicated issue and not all homeowners will qualify for mortgage interest tax deductions. Check with your tax professional before making tax planning decisions.

If you don't have an accountant you trust, call or email me anytime; I'm happy to make a recommendation to you.

What Deflation Means To America

Universal Home Mortgage — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:44:32 -0600

Business television and newspapers have made deflation a hot topic this week and, since Monday, Google has tracked 13,000 mentions of it.

Deflation is a recurring cycle in which the prices of goods and services fall. Isolated to one industry or sector, falling prices is the natural result of competition.

For example, when DVD players were first introduced, they were tagged at $800.

Today, you can buy them for less than $20.

Across many industries, however, and happening at the same time, falling prices can shut down the economy. Rather than buy things on the cheap, people stop buying anything at all. And why would they? The same items will cost less tomorrow.

And this is the problem with deflation -- it halts consumer spending and consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. When it stops, the economic result is dwindling corporate revenues which leads to:

Layoffs of the workforce, which leads to...
Less consumer spending, which leads to...
Dwindling corporate revenues, which leads to...

And the spiral continues.

Deflation can be much more insidious that its expansionary counterpart -- inflation. Inflation is when the prices generally rise over time and it's an economic condition through which governments can comfortably navigate. Deflation, on the other hand, is more rare and, therefore, fewer practical control measures exist.

Whether the U.S. economy will slip into deflation is a matter of debate.

The Fed has cut the Fed Funds Rate to promote economic growth and those changes can take up to 12 months to work their way through the economy. Deflationary pressures we're seeing today, in other words, may have already been addressed and corrected by Ben Bernanke's 10 rate cuts in the last 14 months.

Until the market figures it out, though, expect that each mention of deflation will hurt the stock market and help the bond market -- including the mortgage-backed variety. This should help lower mortgage rates and make homes more affordable.

How Falling Gas Prices Help Sell More Real Estate

Universal Home Mortgage — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:41:09 -0600

For the 78th consecutive day, gas prices fell nationwide yesterday. At $1.81 per gallon, the average price at the pump is less than half what it was at its peak in July.

And although gas prices vary by locale, the cost of a fill-up is worthy of national news.

The main reason why national gas prices matter is because of something called the Wealth Effect -- people's tendency to spend more money when they have a perceived feeling of being worth more.

Low gas prices can amplify the Wealth Effect, leading to higher levels of consumer spending nationwide -- the primary driver of the U.S. economy.

But more important than the Wealth Effect is the reverse Wealth Effect. That's when consumers have a perceived feeling of being worth lessand their spending reflects it. This past summer is a terrific example of it.

Soaring gas prices, Wall Street troubles, and negative campaigning constantly reminded Americans of what was wrong with the economy. It follows, therefore, that retail sales figures plunged in September and October. Once the election passed, however, and gas prices fell, a gentle optimism returned.

Not surprisingly, consumer confidence rose in November.

All of this matters to real estate because as Americans regain their confidence and feel more "wealthy", they will be more likely to make "move up" purchase, buy new home appliances, and take other actions that propel the economy forward.

Oh, and mortgage rates trolling at 3-year lows certainly helps, too.

Will the Presidential Election Impact Mortgage Rates?

Universal Home Mortgage — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 13:50:30 -0600

More than a handful would-be home buyers stayed on the sidelines this year, waiting for Election Day to pass.

The prevailing thought was that once the new President-Elect was identified, credit markets will systemically unfreeze and housing markets will return to normal.

If history is a guide, this is an unlikely scenario.

Election Day doesn't figure to alter markets any more in 2008 than it did after the four previous presidential elections.

If anything, post-Election Day market reaction has been muted:

1992 : Dow closes down 0.9 percent the day after Election Day
1996 : Dow closes up 1.6 percent the day after Election Day
2000 : Dow closes down 0.4 percent the day after Election Day
2004 : Dow closes up 1.0 percent the day after Election Day

But just because the stock market has a history of idling on the day after the election doesn't mean that mortgage rates will rest easy this week. The likely outcome is the opposite, actually.

If investors believe the President-elect will successfully stimulate the economy, stock markets would likely rally, causing mortgage bonds to sell off and mortgage rates to rise.

Or, if investors think the winning candidate will fail to revive the economy, money would flock to government bonds as a place of safety. This dollar flow would occur at the expense of the mortgage market, causing rates to rise in this scenario, too.

Of course, it's as difficult to predict post-Election market conditions as it is to predict the election itself but one thing is for certain -- rates may rise and fall before the week is out, but credit guidelines will remain extra-tight. Getting approved for a mortgage won't be any easier -- no matter which party wins the Presidential Election.

401k Hardship Withdrawals

Universal Home Mortgage — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 13:44:15 -0600

As household budgets get pinched and credit markets tighten, a growing number of Americans are making "hardship withdrawals" from their 401(k) plans.

One major fund group cites a 15 percent increase in activity from this time last year for various reasons including staving off foreclosure and medical emergency.

However, 401(k) loans should only be made with careful consideration.

On the positive side, 401(k) loans don't require a credit check. This is helpful feature for people deep in debt, and who may have missed a payment or two to their creditors. With no credit score requirement, a poor payment history won't disqualify a plan participant.

In addition, most 401(k) loans can be arranged with just a phone call and a small stack of paperwork. There's no "qualification process" like applying for a credit card or a mortgage. Money can be available, therefore, in as little as a day.

But there are negatives to 401(k) loans and the biggest one relates to taxation.

If you take a 401(k) loan and can't repay according to its terms, the IRS taxes the loan as ordinary income and slaps on a 10 percent penalty if you're under 59 1/2. That can be very costly for a lot of people.

But, even if you do repay the loan on time, it's still gets expensive. This is because 401(k) loan repayments are subject to double-taxation.

The first taxation occurs when the loan is repaid because the payback is made with post-tax paycheck dollars. A person in the 25% tax bracket, for example, would need a $1,333 paycheck to repay a $1,000 loan -- the missing $333 goes to taxes.

And the second taxation occurs at retirement when the funds are finally withdrawn. The IRS taxes that money as ordinary income.

Now, this isn't to say that taking a loan against your 401(k) is bad, it just may not be the best possible route for a person in trouble. Especially because of the costs. If you're planning to withdraw from your 401(k) for hardship, be sure to talk with a qualified financial professional first.

If you'd like a referral to a trusted professional, call or email me anytime.

Why Rates Haven't Fallen

Universal Home Mortgage — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 13:39:20 -0600

When the government nationalized mortgage lending in September, housing analysts predicted lower mortgage rates. For a brief two-week stint, they were right -- post-takeover, the 30-year, fixed rate mortgage fell below 6.000 percent nationally for the first time in 7 months. Since then, however, mortgage markets have reversed. Rates are now at pre-takeover levels. Now, this isn't to say that the nationalization was a failure -- far from it. The government's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac accomplished two very important goals: It restored failing confidence in the U.S. mortgage markets It opened legislative channels for faster, more relevant housing reform And, long-term, most people agree, these are essential elements for a U.S. economic recovery. Over the short-term, however, the plan has not delivered the sustained low mortgage rate environment that was envisioned.

The biggest reason why rates are higher is because of Wall Street's manic trading behavior. When the economic outlook shows hints of sun, investors sprint to risky stock markets; when it shows signs of gloom, they flee in favor of ultra-safe treasuries. The buy-sell patterns have led to some of the wildest trading days on record and it's not what the Treasury expected. See, when the takeover was first announced, mortgage-backed bonds were elevated to "government status". This created new demand for mortgage bonds which helped to push down rates. But, in the weeks that followed, the world's credit markets unraveled and traders sought the dual comfort of safety and liquidity in their portfolios. That's a combination that only U.S. treasuries can provide. Versus "true" government bonds, mortgage-backed securities are just quasi. We can't know where mortgage rates will move for certain but, for now at least, the 4 percent range some had predicted is out of reach. Until credit order is restored globally, expect volatility to continue and rates to remain up.

More Changes In Conforming Lending Coming December 13, 2008

Universal Home Mortgage — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 11:07:32 -0500

In an effort to limit risky borrower behavior, Fannie Mae announced a new round of mortgage guideline changes.

Unlike its previous 20-plus updates that raised income requirements and minimum credit scores (among other changes), Fannie's latest guideline tweaks focus on the value of its underlying mortgage assets -- home equity.

Effective December 13, 2008, Fannie Mae will require larger equity positions on some of its insured purchases and refinances.

A few of the updates include:

Limiting primary residence, cash out refinances to 85% loan-to-value
Requiring 10% downpayments on second/vacation homes
Requiring a 25% equity position on all investment property refinances

And, while the above changes represent 5 percent equity increases over the current mortgage guidelines, some of the other updates call for increases of as much as 20 percent.

As we head into the election and Congress mulls over another economic stimulus package, it's unclear if mortgage rates will move higher or lower as we close out the year. We do know, however, that getting approved for a conforming mortgage will, in general, be harder come December 13, 2008.

If you're finding yourself on the fence about your next move -- whether it's to buy or to refinance -- consider taking the necessary steps before the guidelines change.

Low, low mortgage rates don't mean much if you don't have enough home equity to get a home loan approval.

Fed Funds Rate Cut By 50 Basis Points Doesn't Necessarily Mean Lower Mortgage Rates

Universal Home Mortgage — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 11:00:10 -0500

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to cut the Fed Funds Rate by one-half percent today. The benchmark rate now stands at 1.000 percent.

In its press release, the Fed wasted no time addressing the key issue at-hand, stating that economic activity has "slowed markedly", pointing to three main causes:

Consumer spending is falling
Business equipment spending is falling
Slowing foreign economies are hurting U.S. businesses

Furthermore, the voting FOMC members are wary of an "intensification" of the current financial market turmoil.

The announcement's 4th paragraph is noteworthy, too. It lists the plethora of growth-stimulating steps that the Fed has taken so far this year and concludes that credit conditions should improve in time. It does note, however, that if markets don't improve in good time, the committee will "act as needed".

In the wake of the announcement, stock markets rallied. Investors liked what the Fed had to say and it drew funds into the stock market from all corners of Wall Street. Unfortunately for mortgage rate shoppers, one of those corners happened to be the mortgage bond market.

The exodus from bonds caused mortgage rates to rise.

It's a common misconception that the Federal Reserve controls mortgage rates and today's market action should help dispel that myth. As the Fed Funds Rate falls back near its 50-year low, mortgage rates are bumping up against a 3-year high.

Tightening of Lending Standards Impacts Prime Borrowers Too

Universal Home Mortgage — Sun, 11 May 2008 10:32:24 -0500

Four times annually, the Federal Reserve surveys 84 different banks about general banking conditions.

One of the survey questions asks about current mortgage lending standards and whether they are loosening or tightening.

The chart above is from the April 2008 survey and it illustrates what we already know: It's getting tougher and tougher to get approved for a home loan.

Some of the areas in which mortgage guidelines are tightening are well-known:

More thorough income documentation
Higher credit score requirements
More "money in the bank" post-closing

Some areas are less well-known:

More scrutiny of prior delinquencies
Strict review of appraised values

Overall, getting a mortgage approval from a bank is more difficult than in months past and the tightening trend is expected to continue throughout the rest of the credit cycle.

No "class" of buyers is immune, either -- not even the "prime" ones.

Home prices may fall going forward but stricter mortgage guidelines means that fewer home buyers will be able to take advantage. If you're unsure about your credit profile, check with your loan officer to see how additional restrictions could impact your ability to purchase (and finance!) a home.

(Image courtesy: Federal Reserve)

Parts of Inflation and Their Impact on Mortgage Rates

Universal Home Mortgage — Sun, 11 May 2008 10:26:00 -0500

When the everyday "Cost of Living" increases, our dollars don't go as far as they used to. Economists call this inflation.

One popular method of measuring inflation is to track prices for 84,000 individual items and lump them together into a "basket". If the overall price is higher, then the economy is experiencing inflation.

If a picture is worth a thousand words, this one from The New York Times is worth at least 84,000.

Broken down item-by-item, life is more expensive in some places you expected, and some places you didn't. For example, over the past year:

Gasoline: +26%
Milk: +13.3%
Children's Shoes: +4.6%
Pet Supplies: +6.8%

Aside from damaging household budgets, inflation can be especially rough on both active home buyers and homeowners looking to refinance. Inflation is linked to high mortgage rates.

This is one reason why mortgage rates have fallen since the Federal Reserve's hints last week that its rate-cutting cycle may be over; many believed that additional Fed Funds Rate cuts would stoke inflation later this year.

In the absence of inflation, mortgage rates tend to improve (all things equal).

Free Credit Reports Worth Their Cost

Universal Home Mortgage — Sun, 11 May 2008 10:19:27 -0500

The ubiquity of "free" credit reporting services like FreeCreditReport.com, TrueCredit.com, and AnnualCreditReport.com have helped breed a new generation of credit-aware Americans.

Because credit ratings have more importance to everyday life than in years past, this is a welcome development. For example:

Lenders use credit ratings to determine borrowing rates
Insurers use credit ratings to determine premiums
Employers use credit ratings to make hiring decision

Unfortunately for Americans, though, not all credit reports are created equal. And when it comes to actually applying for credit in the form of a new credit card or mortgage, the free reports are worth precisely what they cost.

This is one reason why home buyers should have their credit reviewed by a mortgage lender as soon as possible in the home buying process -- the free reports offered by the major credit bureaus may be misleading and incomplete.

Free credit reports are useful for identifying identity theft and reviewing active accounts but do very little to help a potential creditor gauge your creditworthiness.

As the chart shows us, each industry's creditors has a way they like to do business and that way is the "standard" way.

MORTGAGE REPORT

Universal Home Mortgage — Tue, 06 May 2008 00:06:47 -0500

Mortgage rates ended higher last week on stronger-than-expected jobs data, strong consumer spending, and an appetite for riskier investments.

But, investors were most excited about the Federal Reserve's hint that its rate-cutting cycle may be over.

The week was quiet until Wednesday when the Federal Reserve voted to lower the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter-percent.

The rate cut wasn't the big news, however.

Market players were most interested in Fed's press release in which it confirmed that the economy is struggling, but improving. The remarks were both soothing and a strong contrast to the Alarmist Analysts -- the ones that make for better television than analysis sometimes.

The Fed's statement also forced investors to rethink their economic outlook for the short- and long-term and when investors change their outlook, markets can be volatile.

One of the more important shifts in thinking now is the attitude towards the U.S. Dollar. An improving economy tends to be good for the dollar and that can help lead to lower mortgage rates.

The dollar's gains last week, incidentally, helped lower gas prices nationwide for the first time in almost 3 weeks. In the 18 days leading up to Friday, gas prices had made 18 consecutive record-highs.

This week, with very little new data and with few companies reporting earnings, expect market momentum to determine in which direction mortgage rates will go.

Because momentum can change quickly, be prepared to lock your mortgage rate if you see one that fits your budget -- it may not last long.

80/20 Rule and Foreclosures

Universal Home Mortgage — Thu, 01 May 2008 22:20:44 -0500

RealtyTrac released Q1 2008 foreclosure statistics and the data follows an interesting statistical phenomenon most commonly known as the "80/20 Rule".

The 80/20 Rule states that 80 percent of the effects come from 20 percent of the causes.

In this case, 80 percent of bank repossessions in the first three months of 2008 came from 20 percent of the states in the union.

Accounting for 156,463 repossessed homes nationwide:

California (40,023 homes)
Texas (14,935 homes)
Michigan (12,016 homes)
Ohio (10,299 homes)
Florida (10,185 homes)
Georgia (8,265 homes)
Arizona (7,956 homes)
Colorado (7,022 homes)
Tennessee (4,533 homes)
Indiana (4,446 homes)
Illinois (4,216 homes)
Overall, 0.55 percent of homes were repossessed by banks in the first quarter.

Fed Cuts Fed Funds Rate By A Quarter Point

Universal Home Mortgage — Thu, 01 May 2008 22:19:02 -0500

The Fed lowered the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter-percent to 2.000% yesterday.

Because it is tied to the Fed Funds Rate, Prime Rate also fell by a quarter-percent. Prime Rate is now 5.000%.

Holders of home equity lines of credit and credit card debt benefited from the change and will see lower interest costs in next month's statements.

Mortgage rate shoppers are also benefitting.

Each time the Federal Reserve cuts the Fed Funds Rate, it's meant to stimulate the economy in growth. Too much stimulation can create too much growth and that often leads to inflation (which causes mortgage rates to rise).

This is one reason why mortgage rates had not fallen over the past few months. Each Fed Funds Rate cut made it more likely that the economy would overheat in the second half of 2008.

So, because the Federal Reserve signaled that a rate-cutting "pause" may be ahead, investors are reducing expectations for a Fed-induced inflation cycle for later this year, pushing rates lower.

The FOMC's next scheduled get-together is a two-day meeting June 24-25, 2008.

Tax Deductions For Single Payment PMI

Universal Home Mortgage — Thu, 01 May 2008 22:13:11 -0500

As you know. MI became tax deductible for 2007 and has recently been extended through 2010. This tax deductibility applies to single financed premium MI (the type of MI that is paid by the borrower, one time, up-front at the settlement table). I often get asked if this deduction is all taken in the first year or if it has to be spread out over time. On January 8, 2008, the IRS gave us guidance to answer this question. They state that a borrower should take the tax deduction for single financed premium MI over an 84-month (7-year) period. So, for example, if the up-front premium was $2,100, you divide that amount by seven and take a $300 deduction per year for seven years. However, it should be noted that if a borrower gets a loan and pays the single financed premium in November, they would only be eligible for a two-month, pro-rata share of the deduction - the equivalent of 2/12 (1/6) of the annual deduction - in the first year. When it comes to single financed premium, it's a great way for a borrower to get into a home with little to no money down. It works great if you have a seller who will pay concessions or closing costs. And, it will result in a low monthly payment for your borrower - lower than monthly MI, split premium MI, LPMI or a combo loan in most cases.

Mortgage Markets Lost Ground Last Week But This Week Holds Great Importance In Market Data

Universal Home Mortgage — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 00:20:15 -0500

Mortgage markets lost ground last week on inflation concerns and a general feeling that "the worst may be over" on Wall Street.

As investors moved money into the stock market, mortgage rates ticked higher for the second straight week.

The biggest story from last week was the rising cost of gasoline.

Rising energy costs combined with rising food prices are creating worries about the American consumer's ability to spur the economy forward.

That sets up the biggest story of this week -- the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The FOMC started a 2-day meeting today and is widely expected to lower the Fed Funds Rate by 0.250 percent at its adjournment.

Cuts to the Fed Funds Rate are meant to promote growth in the economy by decreasing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. For example, credit card rates are tied to the Fed Funds Rate so when the Fed Funds Rate falls, American households pay less interest and (theoretically) have more money to spend on "things".

But the FOMC meeting is not the only big news to watch for.

On Thursday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures data is released. PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge because it's a smarter version of the "Cost of Living" index. If PCE rises more than expected, it's an indication of inflation and inflation tends to make mortgage rates rise.

Then, on Friday, it's the jobs report. The economy is expected to post the fourth consecutive month of negative job growth. Markets have been highly sensitive to the jobs data lately so expect wild swings in mortgage rates in its wake.

And lastly, sprinkled throughout the week, more than 100 influential members of the S&P 500 will report their earnings. If earnings and outtlooks are strong, mortgage rates should rise. If earnings are weak, mortgage rates should fall.

Foreclosure 80/20 Rule

Universal Home Mortgage — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 00:16:52 -0500