predictions: Lane's Prognostications for 2011... - 01/10/11 08:57 PM
Image by thinkpanama via Flickr We'll see how well I peg this.
Lane's Predictions for 2011... Looking back over the last year or two in real estate market reports, there are a few things that have been jumping out at me.
For over two years I have been hearing about the millions of homes in "Shadow Inventory". These are properties in the foreclosure process, or already foreclosed, that the banks are basically sitting on, waiting until "the market improves" before releasing them into the market. I predict that next year there will STILL be people talking about the coming giant wave … (2 comments)
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predictions: Wayback Wednesday... Looking Ahead to 2009... - 12/29/10 10:43 AM
Image via Wikipedia Two years ago this week, I posted up my predictions for the next year. That year would be 2009. I got a few right, and got a few wrong. I was just looking back and I was surprised by them... some were pretty bold.
Here is the original post...
Here is a quick rundown of how I did...
Right Rightish Hit that one Kind of right... Not so good on that one That one was good Nailed that one Not so much Got that one pretty right Hit that one out of the park... Image via Wikipedia On … (4 comments)
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predictions: Speaking of Custom v Catalog v Mass Produced... - 11/29/10 11:41 PM
Image via Wikipedia Yesterday, I wrote a post about Coach-Built cars of the 1920s and 1930s. As I was wring about those cars, and the Coach-Builder catalogs that grew out of them... and the mass-produced cars, I started thinking about the comparison with homes in the US. And there is an interesting comparison.
Back in the 1970s and 1980s, my grandparents had a wonderful lake property in northern Michigan. It was on Black Lake. It had been in the family (mostly) for generations. When I was very young, it had a couple of one room cabins that had been built in … (8 comments)
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predictions: How well are my predictions doing? - 04/17/09 11:02 AM
While wandering through some old posts I ran across one of my prediction posts.
Lane's Top Ten Underdogs for 2009
It was interesting to look over. And I thought it might be fun to take a look at how I am doing on it so far...
10. GM still needs a cheerleader... and maybe a good bankruptcy judge. Despite them putting a couple of brands high up in the JD Power quality rankings... including Buick at the TOP, they are seen as junky compared to some foreign nameplates. I think they are going to end up the year in bankruptcy.
9. … (5 comments)
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predictions: Sometimes I am just wrong... - 03/14/09 10:41 PM
Fast forward to the last line of this post and you will see me swallow my foot...
Leading indicators v. Trailing indicators
I didn't think Atlanta values would drop more than a couple of points... if that. Well... 20% later, and there is no way for me to spin it otherwise... I was wrong. I really thought that we wouldn't see more than a 5% decline.
The rest of the post is interesting as well... simply because of the talk of leading and trailing indicators. And that is what I want to expand on... Leading and Trailing Indicators.
As mentioned previously, … (5 comments)
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predictions: Future of Real Estate - 01/03/09 01:05 PM
I actually wrote this to submit to the Inman contest to get a couple of free passes to Connect in NY. But, I determined that I wasn't going to be able to go even with free passes, so I decided not to submit the essay... but I figured I would toss out the essay for comment. And NO, I didn't assume that the essay would be good enough... I just couldn't take that chance. ;^ )
For many years, real estate agents were the guardians of information. We had it, and we didn’t want to allow consumers to uncover too much … (16 comments)
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predictions: Lane's Top Ten Underdogs for 2009 - 01/01/09 06:06 AM
I love a good "Top Ten" post... and I love underdogs. So, what could be better than a Top Ten post about the Underdogs for the new year. Wow, that even tosses in the "New Yew's Prediction Post".
So, without further delay, here are my
Top Ten Underdogs for 2009
10. General Motors. They used to be the biggest corporation in the world... and now they are burning through BILLIONS of dollars a month with NO hope in sight for actually turning a profit again. The have massive labor cost issues, an uphill battle with the economy, a dealer network that … (46 comments)
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predictions: It's that time of year... looking back... was I right? - 12/27/08 03:35 PM
As the end of the year quickly approaches, it is time for me to look back and see how my predictions for 2008 came out... Now, I did give the post a quick glane last night, but I have pretty much set it to the back of my mind since writing it... I certainly didn't want to go back and edit the post... and I think it is pretty obvious that I didn't.
And, I will be writing my predictions for 2009 in the next few days.
So, on to the carnage predictions:
1. Mortgage Rate Lower or Higher? Both. I … (2 comments)
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predictions: I need help with something on my shoe... - 08/27/08 11:31 PM
I am cleaning up my blog... and it is really not fun. I am making a few changes to the old posts, basically cleaning up the tags and adding "Read More" tags. Boring...
But, it is also forcing me to look at old posts.
One of those posts was this... and that brings me to the point of my post.
A little over a year ago, I made a bold prediction. It was back in the days when I didn't really even get that many comments on my A|R blog. So, there wasn't anyone to hold my feet to the fire. … (10 comments)
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predictions: Why does the NAR do this? - 01/26/08 10:49 PM
I just couldn't help but look at these two items from the REALTOR(R) Magazine Daily Report. Do they read the stories?
Is it just me, or should one notice a connection between these articles.
If we see a decrease in demand for office space, do we not expect that commercial real estate will soften? Should we really rush to join the commercial ranks just in time for the slowdown?
I just can't wrap my head around the logic that would make these articles co-exist.
If the NAR really wanted to build credibility, a good first step would be … (5 comments)
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predictions: New home construction drops 25% in 2007... It's about time! - 01/17/08 10:06 AM
When I logged on to the computer this morning, I ran across this story from Yahoo News. It is from the AP, and basically says that in 2007, new home construction dropped 24.8% from 2006 levels. That is the highest drop since 1980... when interest rates on mortgages were worse than credit cards are now.
Of course, the effects are a lot more localized. The story goes on to say:
The drop was 30.8% in the Midwest It was 19.6% in the West The Northeast saw a 25.8% drop The drop in the South was 3.3%... not a misprint... 3.3% Now, … (11 comments)
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predictions: Lane's 2008 Prognostications... - 12/29/07 10:11 PM
Earlier I ran across a post on the official A/R blog wondering about our predictions for the next year. Well, I had already been in a prognosticating mood, since I was actually grading some of my predictions from earlier this year.
I also ran across a post by Jim Crawford looking for specific answers to 10 real estate questions. I figured I'd bite on that as well. So, here they are:
Mortgage Rates Lower or Higher? Credit Loosen or Tighten? Numbers of Agents in Your Market Up or Down? Real Estate Inventory Levels in Your Market Increase, or Decrease? Better Real … (9 comments)
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