Dear Mr. Obama, By this time next week, I and everyone else will call you "Mr. President". You are assuming an office with truly awesome power, weighty responsibilities, a nation in crises, and considerable support from a hopeful nation. While we are a generally well informed people, with high levels of education and compassion for our fellow citizens, we are also in some ways unchanged from our forefathers. We mistrust politicians, for we have been taken advantage of. We are frustrated with our personal situation, feeling put upon by unseen hands. We wish to blame others, although in most cases our ills are self prescribed. We complain much, but most of us are willing to work hard to further that which we hold dear. We wish to be saved, but have difficulty understanding what safety looks like, or just how we are to be saved. Unlike our forefathers, we have lost much of our resolve, succumbing to a combination of incomprehensible regulations and false help from government handouts. We are somewhat dazed by recent events, and like a punch-drunk prizefighter, we are wobbling aimlessly. We still have great strength, but have had the wind knocked from us. Teddy Roosevelt once described the power of the Presidency as a "Bully Pulpit". You will soon use the power of your office, in concert with the power of our many elected representatives, to offer up many solutions and actions designed to save our national economy and address our nations other ills. But, of more importance than programs and handouts, I entreat you to please use your "Bully Pulpit" to inspire us, give us direction, tell us we are hurt but will quickly recover if we so choose. Tell us it is good to believe in ourselves. Challenge us do great things, and tell us what those great things are. You must lead, not manage. You must spend your political capital on the nation, and not on yourself or your party, and encourage others to follow your example. It is said by some that our nation is failing, and will never again be great. I disagree, and I believe most of America's citizens agree with me. If we do not choke to death in our bureaucracy, or unnecessarily battle the ghosts of our fears; we will use our mechanism of freedom to achieve many more great things, for many generations to come. I wish you the very best as you assume the office,
I am by nature pretty easy going. However, I am becoming increasingly angry at our governments ham handed approach to pretty much everything. I heard from a friend today that his Visa supplier, Bank of America, arbitrarily raised the interest rate on his credit card from 9 to 20% for no reason, no late payments, just did it, with no recourse. Later, I hear that B of A will receive another 15 -20 billion from the Feds for, well, I guess because they asked for it. Then I read where Fannie Mae will now be enforcing the S.A.F.E. provisions of whatever "save society from the nasty mortgage lenders" legislation, so every lender has to have a number. I suspect I am preaching to choir here, but at some point 2 things should be obvious: 1) Uncle Sam is saving banks, not citizens: and 2) if we are to be "saved" it will be us that does the saving. If 155 people can work together to save themselves from a sinking airplane, it seems to me that we can work together to save ourselves from stupid banks. (loaning money to pretty much anyone that asked was stupid, need I say more) The Federal Govt's answer is more regulation for small people and loans (gifts?) to banks. There is no doubt that there was nasty stuff perpetrated by nasty lenders, etc. But the current state of panic coupled with immobilizing regulation simply makes recovery more difficult, if not impossible. Everyone that reads this can probably vote, most of you just did, so you probably remember the names of your Senator and Congress Person. Call them. Tell them that they are making things worse, beg them to stop, and perhaps offer one suggestion: Don't pass any more legislation. Leave us alone, we will figure it out.
Looking back at the Metropolitan Denver market over the past 2 years and performing a brief comparison, things were just not as bad as the media heads would have us believe. So here are a few quick numbers: 2007 - Total Sold Residential units -- 49,789 2008 - Total Sold Residential units -- 47,328 That is a reduction of 5% in total residential sales, which by the definitions of the Metro Denver MLS (Metrolist) includes both detached and attached dwellings. So is a 5% loss in total sales all that bad? Not really, but read on. 2007 – Average Sold Price -- $281,823 2008 - Average Sold Price -- $248,328 OK-so that latter number is a bit of an ouch, at least on the surface. An average per unit sold dollar loss of $33,500 or an approximately 12% loss of sold value. Sounds bad, right? Well, it is not good, but let’s glance below the surface a bit. First, let’s remember what a market is. It is those things of any given commodity being offered for sale right now. And right now, in Denver, and for most of 2007, there were more low price things (residences) being offered for sale, and subsequently sold, than high priced residences. Many of those sales were bank owned or short sales. The result of those distress sales is a reduction in the average price. There are very few elective offerings and leasing has become very popular in the higher price ranges, with high end builders leasing their custom properties to pay the debt service while biding time until the financial markets begin to function. As a result, the total inventory available in the market continues to decline. I am certain that some statistician in Washington will work out just how many distressed sales there were in Denver last year, or the effect on the Metropolitan Denver area’s total value of residential property, but consider that for many of those sales where a loss was sustained; it was a bank that sustained the loss. Yes, I know that every distressed property sale represents a small tragedy, and I know the banks are really covering their losses with our tax dollars, but the discussion here relates to the difference between current market value and sustainable future value. Properties in the lowest price ranges are selling rapidly in the Denver market, with competing offers in some cases, and prices are beginning to creep up in the >$200K market. So, what is my point? Simple, if you do not have sell your home, and I mean really have to, then don’t. While there is no doubt that the local and national economy has much to do to recover the loss of monetary value, there will be many home buyers ready to buy when it does, and that will be the time to sell.
The “license hanging wall” brokerage business is re-surging in today’s less than optimal economy. I am sure there are one or more such brokerages operating in your market. For a monthly fee of $25 or $50, those nice people that obtained their real estate license in the recent boom housing market get to keep their license active while they do whatever they have to do to survive the downturn, and maybe sell a house once in a while. The brokerage takes the monthly fee, and since there is almost zero overhead in maintaining the license, the money goes directly to the bottom line. The sharp operator can hang almost limitless numbers of licenses, and if one of the licensees actually sells something, there are additional processing fees to cover the cost of that specific overhead. It is, very simply, a money machine. My concern here is not aimed at a brokerage’s license hanging business model, or the nice people that hang them on the wall, but it is aimed at an industry philosophy that caters to the mediocre and tolerates the incompetent. Now, before someone gets their nose out of joint, or puts their toes out there where I am liable to step on them, please understand where I am coming from. I have believed for the 30 years I have been practicing real estate brokerage that you deserved to be paid only if you gave value. It is no wonder that consumers are having difficulty paying the “professional” service fee, because consumers are questioning the value proposition offered by the brokerage industry. There is nothing professional about hanging a license on a wall waiting for easy times. (Please take a moment, leap to your Webster’s and determine the difference between “acting in a professional manner” and being a “professional”.) It wasn’t too long ago that the National Association of Realtors was proudly crowing that NAR was the world’s largest trade association at 1.3 million members. I cannot for the life of me understand why an organization would boast about being really big unless there was a benefit to its members, but, never-the-less, there we were at 1.3 million; averaging all of 6 closings per year (that number not being mentioned in the press releases). Lately, that 1.3 million has dropped a bit, perhaps something about a difficult economy. A quick look at post WW II demographics would indicate that today's Realtor membership should be something like 850,000 if a consistent relationship between the United States population and Realtor membership were maintained. The economic rule here is – more of anything lessens the worth of the thing! So I say-Now is our chance! If there was ever a time to raise the bar of both licensing and NAR membership, it is now, before the economy recovers and hundreds of thousands of opportunists rush to grab a real estate license. The NAR should lobby for every state to increase the difficulty and cost of obtaining a license, while, at the same time, raise the standards of membership and make ethics complaints easier to file, and penalties for violation truly painful. This is an ideal time to improve the quality and competency of the NAR’s membership, while at the same time demonstrating to the consuming public that we are worth what we charge. I firmly believe that residential real estate brokerage will be around for some time to come; however, the practitioners are going to have to be demonstrably good at what they do.
Over the past month I have had long private conversations with the associates in my brokerage, and many others outside my company. I continue meeting and speaking with Realtors in the Denver market, but following are what I believe are the consistent themes of those conversations:
So here are my suggestions on meeting the market head on and thriving next year:
I am off now to call 5 people. There were some interesting things on today’s Inman News to chat about.
One of the most amazing things about Barack Obama’s political career is just how short that career is. First elected to the Illinois Senate in 1996, he managed not to engage in controversial issues, or at least not very many. He lost a run for United States Congress in 2000, but started campaigning for the United States Senate in July of 2002 and by early 2004 he was competing against 6 other Democrats in pursuit of the not yet vacant seat in the United States Senate. It is important to note that the incumbent Republican, and the most likely Democratic candidate both declined to run, leaving the way open for a contentious primary. Then, his strongest competitor caught a case of domestic abuse, and Mr. Obama found himself the winner of the Democratic primary. The leading Republican was later forced to drop out, continuing the dirty domestic life theme; after which the state Republican Central Committee brought in a ringer from another state to do battle with the Democratic candidate. That was a Republican misstep, and Barack was elected to the United States Senate with 70% of the votes. So what can we take from this admittedly thumb-nail sketch of Barack Obama’s Senate campaign? The first really important thing is that he did not quit. Defeated in 2000, he was organizing a run for the Senate just 2 years later. Seems simple enough, just don’t quit. He also found some really good help, hiring David Axelrod to organize his campaign for the Senate. Most Realtors® have heard this before, but it bears repeating here, hire really good help. And it is important to note that Barack began organizing his campaign long before he knew for certain that the office would be open; so, start running your race before there are others running. Many a race is won by preempting the competition. Make sure you have allies, even in a sales business. Naively ignoring relationship building (networking) because it feels like an imposition or is playing politics does not a career make. Barack Obama is a world class orator; most Realtors® avoid scripts and dialog. Those people that paid attention to Mr. Obama’s speeches early on realized that he was better with a script than off the cuff, but he improved toward the end because he became familiar with the many various scripts. Projecting authoritative dialog on demand is a key for success in any people oriented experience like politics or sales. Consider how many votes were likely cast because Barack Obama sounded good. It worked for him, it will work for you. Practice your dialogs. And, the most important marketing lesson learned so far is – do not be concerned with competition. We are all competing, all of the time, so get on with it. Prepare well, attend to your image, know what to say, and ask often for what you want. It worked for the President-elect; it will probably work for you. There is a certain consensus that Barack Obama started running for the Presidency as soon as he arrived in Washington. Delivering the keynote speech at the Democratic Convention certainly helped his positioning, and the most obvious Democratic candidate did not enjoy universal popularity. There was no clear front runner for the Republican nomination, and, although the sitting President was suffering a decline in prestige, the national economy was still upright. The lesson to be learned is that chance favors the prepared mind. Making sure you are ready before an opportunity is better than trying to prepare as opportunity is passing by. So, in sales, practice your presentations, be familiar with your market, stay ahead with your training, and don’t get caught with an empty tank. Luck, timing, and circumstance plays a role in all human endeavors, however, if one is not prepared for the favorable circumstance, then one loses the opportunity. he nitty-gritty of an election is money. Fund raising is critically important to the success of a political campaign. Without accepting any Federal money, Barack Obama’s campaign collected over a quarter of a billion dollars to finance his campaign. How did that happen? The answer is Silicon Valley and the employment of sales networking systems. For the whole story, go to www.theatlantic.com/doc/200806/obama-finance, but for our purposes it is enough to know that incremental donations from an enormous group of donors made the big difference, using systems geared for widespread contact and relentless repetition. And, for reasons of ignorance or arrogance, Hillary Clinton simply did not embrace the techie fund raising method, or the tech entrepreneurs that drove the tech bus. Mr. Obama’s youthful advisers quickly connected with the moneyed tech folks in Northern California, and the money started rolling in. You say you are not into fund raising? Duh! How about raising funds for you, a most noble cause indeed? Are you really tech capable? Most Realtors® still have the five page static website they paid someone to throw on the web in 2002. If you are reading this, your tech skills are most likely ahead of the pack, but are you really making money from your efforts? If not, consider why not, and determine what you must do to have people jumping on board your bandwagon, begging you to help them buy or sell real estate. With the campaigns early link of fund raising and marketing technology, it was a short step to social media. Most of the early tech donors were social media junkies, already communicating on Facebook or Linked-in. Mr. Obama’s experience as a community organizer helped him see quickly the obvious advantage of accessing the on-line community. The Obama campaign gathered many of the very developers of the new media revolution and put them to work providing everything from ring tones to site widgets. Text messaging, Twitter, www.My.BarackObama.com , listserv’s, and affinity groups, everything new media had to offer was put to work in the campaign. So, how about you? Blog lately? Are you Linked-in? How many people follow you on Twitter? Just as the then new media of television helped John Kennedy win the White House in 1960, Barack Obama employed the new media of social networking to electrify his supporters and virally recruit new ones, while at the same time inviting a flood of money to support the effort. So there you have it. Simple really, especially in hindsight. To be successful in marketing you must prepare well, network with like minded people, have a plan, engage good help, and take advantage of the latest technology to broaden your opportunity. Oh, yes, ther is one more thing. You must want to succeed. It is said that Mr. Obama is ambitious. As long as his moral compass is on an even keel, I have no problem with ambition. If you do not have a burning desire to succeed, it is very difficult to do so. The will to succeed trumps all else. First and foremost, this post is not about politics, and certainly not about the President-Elect’s political point of view, his policies, or the policies of the Democratic Party. The election is over, the results are in, and we shall all sally forth to face whatever will be the daily events that are destined to become part of our collective national history. There are, however, lessons to be learned from Mr. Obama’s campaign that may be instructive to Realtors®, or to any individual or company that would like to realize success from their marketing efforts. Let us start with the name. Barack Obama. He stopped using his nick name Barry during his first few years of college. While he most probably was not considering the Presidency at that time, he definitely wanted to take advantage of a name that was unique in the culture of American colleges of the time. Like most all of us at that age, he wanted to be at least a little different, to establish his identity. So, look at your name, or the name of your company. Is it unique, or does it have a heritage? Or is it too common to be memorable. From my company’s name, The Berkshire Group, we get the word “The” signifying that it is the only Berkshire that matters. “Berkshire”, with a strong first syllable and soft second syllable, is both melodic and evokes a sense of England heritage, which is accurate, since County Berkshire is just west of London, England. And of course “Group” to say that there are a number of us, offering the strength and presence that come from numbers. You may not want to change your name, but you certainly may want to create a unique symbol that identifies you as somehow special and unique in a sea of Realtors®. Barack worked at obtaining a first class education. With a B.A. in political science from Columbia, and a J.D. from Harvard, the soon to be 44th President punched the right educational tickets to provide a firm basis for a future of high achievement. So, how about you? While a J.D. from Harvard is not absolutely necessary to achieve top line results as a Realtor®, learning more about the vast industry we call real estate cannot hurt. And being President of the Harvard Law Review most likely provided a great boost in self confidence, useful when running for office. As a Broker for many years, I have observed that a good basic education for real estate sales success is in Psychology or Communication, with a minor in Business. Whatever the formal college basis, it makes very good sense to add training in the specialties. CCIM, CIPS, CRB, CRS, and ALC are all acronyms for serious and focused training in one of the many aspects of real estate. If you are not educationally prepared to be successful, it is much harder to be so. It is also true that few successful sales people achieve that success with a measure of self- confidence. From where do you obtain your conviction, the inner strength that projects your aura of confidence? Always have your well of confidence at hand, because sales and politics call for resolve, authority, and a belief in one’s self. President-elect Obama became involved in community activities, with much apparent success. His commitment and work with community activities created credibility, provided tremendous networking opportunities, and gave him a grass roots understanding of organizational skills that would prove useful during a political campaign. He learned the skill of influencing people to do things because they want to, and not because he wanted them to. And that is a handy skill both in politics and sales. Become involved with the people you expect to serve. Show up and be passionate about their something, but only if it is also your something. If you do not regularly meet people, demonstrate you care about them and their passions, and become genuinely involved in those passions, it is very difficult to achieve success in sales. And it must be real. Most people can recognize a faker. Your network is the people you meet and care about, and the people they know. Barack Obama traveled. He had the good fortune to develop a world view while growing up, and as a young man traveled to Europe and Kenya. As a United States Senator, he made official trips to Europe and Central Asia. Seeing how people live in other places provides a breadth of understanding that cannot be obtained from books. You certainly do not have to embrace how other people live, or agree with their beliefs and lifestyle, but it is useful in both politics and sales to understand why they believe and live that way. Where have you been? While it is true that traveling the world is both expensive and difficult, it might be somewhat instructive to at least hop in your car and travel across town. Get out of your comfort zone and your routine and expose yourself to the what, why and how of the daily lives of other folks. Eat food not on the normal diet, look at culture unfamiliar and become comfortable in being with people not like you. Most Realtors® are very good at this, because discrimination is not only illegal, it doesn’t pay very well. Mr. Obama read. And he wrote. As President of the Law Review, he had to become not only a good reader, but a critical one as well. His first book, Dreams of My Father, was published in 1995. Are you reading? Local events, real estate news, Inman, Seth Godin, Tom Peters, social networking sites, novels, The Economist, National Geographic, something, anything to make your mind work and stay fresh. While you or I may not be ready to write a book, we can all blog. We can write notes to our clients. We can e-mail our friends and social network. If you don’t have the skills, go take a class in creative writing. Do something! Now! The ancient Greeks first offered that all of us as individuals are a composite of our personal associations, the places we have visited, and that which we have studied, or more simply: people, places, and books. Those bedrock items of humanity are also the basis for a successful career in politics and sales. Tomorrow, we will take the basics and add the marketing tools that proved to be too much for both Hillary and John to overcome. I suspect I share a certain pet peeve with most folks. You find yourself in need of a “thing”, and you pop on by your local retailer for the “thing”. You navigate through the self-help system, perhaps even receiving assistance from a smiling clerk wearing the appropriate retailer vest. You find the “thing”, and probably a few “things” you weren’t looking for, and make your way to the Disney influenced Check Stand. There you find many other people, with their “things” in hand, waiting in line for the lone, not smiling, checkout person; wearing the appropriate vest of course; overwhelmed by the steady stream of customers with “things” they want to pay for. Let us sum up: the drive to the retailer takes 10 minutes, you spent 10 minutes finding your “thing”, and it takes 30 minutes to actually pay for the “thing”. I have to believe that retailers stay awake at night, determining the profit and loss differentials of one checkout clerk verses how many people walk out in frustration, leaving their “thing” behind. On the other hand, I have noticed that few people actually abandon their “thing”. Rather, the whole long line of customers stands there, getting frustrated and sometimes downright angry about having to WAIT TO PAY! Like I said, a pet peeve. So, right here in Denver, we have an escrow closing company that makes home buyers wait to check out (close) on their REO purchase. The operation is owned by a legal firm that specializes (surprise) in foreclosure actions for the financial and securities industry (The Bank). (Most likely, there is a similar operation in your neck of the woods.) That same legal bunch also owns a title agency that provides the title insurance on behalf of “The Bank”. Not there is anything really wrong with the legal firm operating this group of businesses in concert, except they have NO concern for the consumer. Zip, nada, none! Knowing that these rather slick operators are lawyers, I am relatively certain that their concern is for their client, “The Bank”, and their job is to close the sale at the least possible cost to the Bank, while protecting “The Bank’s” legal position. From a strictly legal point of view, there is nothing wrong with that position. And, I am pretty sure the position of “The Bank”, transmitted to their agents (lawyers, Realtors®, escrow providers, Et al.), is something like “we got screwed taking this house back, the buyers are getting a great deal, and so who cares if we don’t offer great service”. And most buyers, and their Realtors® and lenders, live with it. And get angry and frustrated at a system that plainly does not care a whit about the guy and gal on “Main Street”, U.S. of A. Well, that is the problem. “The Banks” made loans they should not have made; to people that really could not afford to buy the houses they bought; so that “The Banks” could realize an inflated profit on the loan. High profit, high risk. And, when the market did what market’s do, they got whacked, along with their “clients”, both the investors and borrowers. Well, maybe sort of whacked. That sound of hooves you hear is the horse carrying everybody’s rich Uncle, riding to the rescue with billions in “bailout” dollars for those selfsame “Banks”. But for crying out loud, put a few more resources at the Check Stand. “The Banks” may want to put a few clerks in front of their present clients, “the borrowers” and figure out how to stop (or at least slow down) the foreclosure virus. And “The Banks”, and all their agents, should be treating the REO buyers like royalty. After all, the buyers are taking the REO’s off “The Banks” books, and giving “The Bank” cash in return. With Uncle Sam underwriting the losses, it occurs to me that the only folks really suffering in frustration are the people on “Main Street”. You know who I mean, the people that got kicked out of their homes by “The Banks”, and the other people that are waiting in line to buy the REO’s from these same “Banks”. Is it any wonder that the American People are frustrated, angry and scared? Previous Next
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