Recently the National Association of Realtors (NAR) came out with their numbers for October 2009.  They reported a year to date, seasonally adjusted gain in existing home sales of 23.5%.  This is a nationwide number, but how do sales look at a local level.  Different parts of the country are affected in different ways by the current downturn in the economy.

 In the Charlotte area, the real estate market was greatly affected by banking with Wachovia (now Wells Fargo) and Bank of America headquarted from here.  A few years ago, it seemed as though the builder could not build homes and Realtors could not list homes fast enough.

 Here are some numbers I put together from Carolina Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers reflect Charlotte and the surrounding MLS area.  Year to date, through October 2009, home sales are down about 22% compared to last year.  Unlike NAR, these numbers are just raw monthly sales numbers and are not seasonally adjusted.  Residential closings did increase for the month of October, by 19.6%, but one or two good months does not show a turn around in real estate, as NAR seems to suggest.  If I understand it correctly, seasonally adjusted means the annual rate for a particular month represents what the actual sales for a year would be if that rate were maintained for twelve months.  My question is would not the most recent month's sales be weighted heavy with the homebuyer tax credit?  If so, does that inflate the number of projected annual sales?  I understand it in normal times, but the way the economy is makes me wonder if the NAR number is a high projection.  Maybe I don't understand how they project the numbers.

 I know NAR has to keep putting a positive spin on home sales.  That's a big part of their job, but I also think we have to be honest with our clients and ourselves.  The market we had a couple of years ago will not be back anytime soon.  In my opinion, unemployment has to come down before we see any kind of significant change in home sales, auto sales or anything else.  Nationally it is at 10.2%.  Here in North Carolina it moved up from 10.8% to 11.0% according to the latest numbers released from The Bureau of Labor Statistics.  I recently read an article by Mort Kondracke.  In his article he quoted an economist, David Smick, as saying in order for unemployment to fall from 10.2% to 5%, the economy would have to produce 250,000 jobs a month for the next five years.  Think about that for a minute.  Do you have enough confidence in our leaders in Washington?  These cannot be government created jobs just to make the numbers look better.  They must be real jobs from the private sector.

 Another key factor is government spending.  Stop!  Our national debt is now over 12 trillion dollars.  We had a 1.5 trillion dollar deficit for fiscal year 2009, a projected 1.4 trillion dollars for 2010 and huge projected deficits for years to come.  Please don't help us anymore.  

 We are kidding ourselves when we allow the government to continue putting band-aids like cash for clunkers or the homebuyer's tax credit on an open wound.  As Dave Ramsey suggested, learn to use the word NO. 

Waxhaw, NC is just south of Charlotte, NC. Waxhaw is basically a bedroom community of Charlotte and has several subdivisions that are off the mainstream radar map. On the north side of town, going up Providence Road toward Charlotte areAlma Village, The Oaks on Providence, Kingston on Providence andOld Hickory. There are several homes in these neighborhoods priced from around $150,000 to $250,000. These subdivisions are conveniently located to shopping or easy driving to downtown Charlotte, Carolina Place Mall or SouthPark Mall.

Two other subdivisions, Hermitage Place and Magnolia Ridge are located on the southeast and southwest side of town but are just as convenient to shopping in Waxhaw or the malls. In both of these neighborhoods, homes are generally in the same price range as above.

CHARLOTTE HOME MARKET TRYING TO BATTLE BACK - Home sales are trying to battle back in the Charlotte market. Sales for the month of October showed a gain, which included single family homes, townhomes and condominiums. We still have a long way to go to get to the levels reached in 2006 and 2007. And to keep things in perspective, it was October, 2008 when home sales took a nosedive, dropping 30.5% from October, 2007. Nevertheless, a gain is a gain and we were up 19.6% for the month of October vs. last year.

Now, some of those sales were foreclosures and some were buyers using the first-time-home-buyer tax credit up to $8,000. The question remains, what will this extension (up to $8,000) for first-time-buyers, and the new tax credit (up to $6,500), for existing homeowners do? It comes at a time when the market usually slows down for the holidays, but it will also run through April 30, 2010, which is normally the busiest time in home sales. A bright point in the home mortgage industry is the story of JP Morgan Chase planning to hire 1,200 mortgage loan officers.

Maybe the tax credits do help home sales temporarily. They might help first-time-buyers make the decision to buy. But, are they just a gimmick? Kind of like a sales gimmick. When I was in retail, the merchandise manager would lay out our ads for the spring season or the fall season. When the sale was successful and we had a good week or good month, it was great. Everyone was happy. We never concerned ourselves with the next year. Next year was next year. That company finally went out of business after about forty years.

Home sales are quite different from running a sale in a retail store. They depend on a strong economy. An economy that is vibrant and growing. That part that is concerning. Home sales don't just happen. Until the unemployment rate, which is now at 10.2% nationally and 11.6% (September, 2009) for the Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Metropolitan Statistical Area is down and people feel secure in their jobs (real jobs), I don't know if (real) home sales will continue to rise even with all the sales gimmicks.

Properties reported may be listed or sold by various participants in the MLS. This information may be subject to errors and should be verified by the user.

It appears home sales in Union County have picked up some.  By no means are they at the level they were in 2007 or 2006, but it is a welcomed increase.  I know, with the different selling seasons in real estate, a month to month instead of a year to year may not seem like a fair comparison, but at this point I think it will do.

The months supply has been slowly decreasing (from 18.7 in May to currently 13.5).  The number of single family homes in MLS in Union County has remained in the 2400 to 2500 unit range. 

The information for these graphs was taken from the local MLS.  It is for single family homes in Union County.  As always, This information may be subject to errors and should be verified by the user.

8 Weeks In A Row - The months supply of homes in Union County has come down.  Not for the lack of inventory, but because of an increase in home sales.  Actually, the inventory of single family homes has remained pretty constant.  The average since May 1, 2009 has been 2,547 homes on the market and about an 18.7% increase in single family home sales for Union County.  Just in the past week I have had a couple of calls about selling their home and buying new ones.  The market does appear to be changing.  Those that want the good deals available at this time should get moving.  For the first time home buyer, the tax credit is scheduled to expire as of December 1, 2009.  If you are planning to buy, don't wait until the last minute.  It does take time to find the home and get the mortgage. 

Properties reported may be listed or sold by various participants in the MLS. 
This information may be subject to errors and should be verified by the user.

 Home sells are trying to make a comeback here in Union County, NC.  They have a way to go to reach their peak of 2006, but any increase in sales is welcome news.  The supply of homes on the market remains about the same, but with the higher pace in closed sales the months supply has dropped seven weeks in a row. 

If there are any first time buyers sitting on the fence waiting to buy a home, they should really take this opportunity to buy.  Interest rates are still low and there are plenty of homes to choose from.  Also, the first time home buyer tax credit is still available.  The tax credit is scheduled to expire on November 30, 2009.

Properties reported may be listed or sold by various participants in the MLS. 
This information may be subject to errors and should be verified by the user.

During the last couple of weeks we have seen inventory levels come down and home sales go up.  Still too early to tell if this is a long range trend in sales.  Also, we don't  know if the reduction in supply is the result of homeowners pulling their home from the market and waiting for a better time to sell.   

Properties reported may be listed or sold by various participants in the MLS. 
This information may be subject to errors and should be verified by the user.

The parade started at 10am.  The fireworks begin at 9:30 this evening. 

Here is a link to NAR concerning Myths and Facts about The American Clean Energy and Security Act (Cap and Trade).  According to NAR, these are the facts they were instrumental in helping to establish.  I assume they developed their opinion in part from a survey they sent out to REALTORS a few months back.  SO, whenever you receive those surveys in your email box from the local or national association, don't press the delete button.  Take the survey.  In this market you certainly can't say you don't have the time. 

This report is a far cry from what you see and hear being reported in the news media.  Now, I have to say, I am not in favor of big government getting involved in our daily lives, but I am in favor of our news shows giving us the facts.  Is that too much to ask for?

I'm fed up with all the politicians (no matter which party) giving us their version of "the truth".  We can't rely on the news media (print or TV).  They all give their version of "the truth".  We can't rely on radio, again their version of "the truth". 

One side says this "Cap and Trade" bill will require home sellers to have an energy efficient inspection before selling their home.  If I listen to the other side, this planet, after billions of years, will be destroyed by humans.

Is someone working against Realtors and home sellers and buyers?  This entire country has become so divided along party lines you can't talk anymore and you certainly can't get a straight answer from anyone. 

If I go to the NAR website, it seems they are always telling us how great homes are selling.  I don't doubt they do work hard for Realtors and try to put a positive outlook on things, but give us the real story.  What are these people in Washington doing?  Are they hurting us or helping?  Forget about the parties, tell us their names.  Tell us if you think these bills they are ramming through with very little oversight are good or bad.  If someone is in a particular party I support, but they are passing legislation that hurts our business, I still want to know.

Now, I'm asking you.  Do you know the real story?  If so, and it is from a reliable source, please share with the rest of us.  The only request I have, don't spin.