I recently spent some time in the Channel District with some buyer clients who have decided to make the former industrial district their home upon relocating to Tampa in October. Many of the Channel District projects have been in the news lately. The Towers, The Place and Ventana are all in some sort of financial funk. The Towers and The Place both entered bankruptcy this year and the developer at Ventana handed the project over to the lender. Ventana is in receivership, not bankruptcy.

The Place at Channelside is due to auction its unsold inventory of 170 some odd units in early October. Minimum bid is reported to be $17.2 million dollars, or around $100k per door. Rumor has it that the interested bidders would lease the remaining unsold inventory, much like Grand Central at Kennedy is (has). And in the mix of all of this unsold inventory, The Slade, the Channel District’s newest project is beginning to take shape.

There are 93 properties listed for sale in Channelside on our MLS currently, which really does not accurately indicate availability. Much the available inventory is not on the MLS, just a representative sampling from some of the projects. Prices range from $145k for a 620sqft studio at Grand Central, to just under $2m for an almost 5000sqft unit on the 28th floor at The Towers. Median price for these 93 listings is around $395k.

Sales are slow, but steady. Most year-to-date Channel District closings have been at The Towers, one of the bigger projects and the only true highrise building. Victory Lofts has seen some resales, and there have been some sales at Ventana as well. Ventana, at 84 units, is one of the smaller of the newer projects, and is almost 50% sold (according to sales staff).

And for my $ (and tastes) Ventana seems to be the best value out there right now. Prices have been lowered since the project entered receivership, reflecting a price/sqft more in line with other areas of south Tampa/Harbour Island, etc. It is also a smaller, more intimate building of more traditional condos, as opposed to a loft or loft/condo hybrid. The true loft style of living does not seem to be that much in demand by Tampa buyers, at least from my perspective. Questions about the market?

Looking to sell? Purchase? Both? Give us a call: 813-205-1802 or contact us via e-mail:

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Don’t believe everything you read! Sage advice, especially when it concerns how some of the media report on the real estate market. It’s the end of the month and with it always comes the much anticipated release of the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report.

The headline on Yahoo! Finance is enough to scare most buyers right back across the fence:

Home Prices Drop by Record 15.8% in May

That’s a very misleading headline (my opinion). Home prices did not drop 15.8% in May!

What the headline should say:

Twenty City Home Price Index Falls 15.8% From May 2007 to May 2008

That conveys the truth. Because that’s what really happened. The composite value of homes in 20 cities fell by 15.8% in a year. To say that home prices fell by almost 16% in May is a bunch of BS! (my opinion) But that’s the media’s way of creating dramatic headlines.

But real estate is local. What’s the value in a composite of 20 cities spread across the USA, if I’m in Tampa?  Home prices did not drop 15.8% in May! So what’s really happening in Tampa?

Let’s just take the Case-Shiller numbers and graph them. Shall we? Graphs put numbers into perspective and help us to better understand the facts. Below is a chart of the Case-Shiller Tampa numbers from May of 2007 through May of 2008.

The decline is beginning to subside (flatten). So here are some facts, not some BS headline that conveys a non-truth (my opinion):

1. Fact: The drop in the Tampa Case-Shiller number from April 2008 to May 2008 (1.36) was the lowest drop since March of 2007.

2. Fact: Since March of 2008 the drop in the Tampa Case-Shiller index has been slowing.

3. Fact: The drop in the CS Tampa index from February 2008 to March 2008 (6.05) was the greatest of the current down market.

So maybe the slow down in price declines is only temporary. Time will only tell. But maybe, just maybe, we are approaching, or are at the bottom regarding price declines.

But the fact is Home prices did not drop 15.8% in May!

I was speaking with a prospective seller client recently and she asked the question that most, if not all, seller’s ask. “How long is it taking to sell a home?” The way that I answer this question is to look at homes in the same neighborhood that have either recently sold or are under contract (pending).

Our MLS has a statistic called Days To Contract, which is a measure of the days that the home was listed for sale until going under contract. Of course the numbers are widely ranging, but we can focus on the median as a gauge of how long it will take.

The homes that go under contract quickly are either prime properties or are homes priced where buyers see value, or some combination of both. The ones that take longer to sell most likley had to go through a number of price reductions to find the sweet spot, where buyers saw value. Or maybe the right buyer just had to enter the market. The properties that are overpriced or are not prepared correctly prior to being placed on the market are the ones that are still on the market, expired or withdrawn from the market.

So here are some numbers to consider. For the single family homes in Tampa that are under contract currently, here is what we know:

* Total Number of Pending Single Family Homes: 828 (Yes buyers are buying!)

* Median Days to Contract: 55

* Maximum Days to Contract 492 (That’s a patient seller)

* Minimum Days to Contract: 2 (Does that still happen?)

* Median List Price: $189,000

* High Price: $2,100,000

* Low Price: $22,900

* MLS Grid with the most pending properties: WJ17 (Palma Ceia Area)

The answer to “how long” depends on a number of factors including how many buyers are currently in the market, property condition, property type, LOCATION, etc. The one thing sellers have the most control over is the preparation of the property in anticipation of placing it on the market for sale. Those who prepare best and price best are rewarded with a relatively low Days to Contract.

Considering a sale? A purchase? Both? Call us: 813-205-1802

Buyer traffic has certainly picked up in recent months, and inventory is trending downwards. But are those buyers actually buying? Yes is the short answer. While there are many wary and uncertain buyers in the market, the numbers speak for themselves. Sales have been rising. I closely watch the number of pending listings on the Tampa MLS. That gives me a real time (sort of) look at demand for Tampa real estate. And while there has been no spike in listings going under contract, the trend is upward.

So with a downward trending supply, and upward trending demand, we are seeing market conditions changing ever so slightly. The gap between supply and demand is (has been) closing. Something we have not seen here in Tampa for some time. Will the trend continue? Time will only tell. Here’s a look graphically:

Tampa Real Estate Market Conditions Chart

More specific questions about the market? Looking to buy? Sell? Call us 813-205-1802 Data used is from the Mid-Florida Regional MLS, all brokers/agents included. 

• Tampa homes sales are down
• The median price of homes in our area is down
• Foreclosures are up
• Inventory is at a record high

And I’ll tell you the same. And that’s all true. No blowing of smoke allowed here.

But did you know this about Tampa real estate?

• 5800 residential properties have sold year-to-date, with 426 of them closing in September and 94 so far in October.
• There are 1033 residential properties in Tampa in pending status, meaning that they are under contract to be purchased. In October alone, 134 have gone under contract (just in Tampa, not Tampa Bay, Hillsborough County, etc.).
• Of the 1033 under contract, 905 of them are expected to close by 11/15/2007 (according to what listing brokers/agents have reported on the MLS)

Why do I bother telling you this? Because although the market is not what it was in 2003–2005, we still have a market. This is just the stuff that you most likely will not read somewhere else, whether in print, elsewhere on the web, or that you’ll hear on radio or on television.

But when comparing to 2003–2005, yes, the market is in the tank. We tend to have short memories and only want to compare to the recent past.

I wasn’t in the business then, but back in 1996, when my wife and I were in the market for our first Tampa home, things were very similar to today. We must have looked at 30 homes or more before making a decision (our poor agent). We felt little, if any, competition from other buyers. We made a low ball offer on one home that got rejected. So we kept looking. And that seller came back weeks later with a reasonable counter-offer. We ended up buying that home at a price that was much closer to our original offer, or about $23k less than asking price. That was a big chunk o’ change, as a percentage, considering Tampa home prices back then.

So folks are still buying homes these days. And stories like ours from 1996 are being played out daily across the Tampa Bay area. Just figured I’d tell my side of the story.

Data used is from the Mid-Florida Regional MLS for city = Tampa, and does not include private, non-brokered sales.

Another in the “Notable E-Mail” series:

“Lenny, I read you online from Dublin, Ireland - surprised not to see the following from you, posted, Aug 3, 2007:

The Tampa Bay area ranks #1! Based on a report by Forbes magazine online issue, Tampa Bay is the best place in the country to buy a home. Forbes notes that the Tampa Bay area is in a V-shape recovery – an area that the market undergoes a freefall, but recovers quickly.”

What the Dubliner refers to is the recent ranking of the Tampa real estate market as being the most resilient. Matt Woolsey, of Forbes.com, published an article back in June, in which he referred to Tampa’s residential real estate market as being “a perfect candidate for a “V” shaped recovery”. This is based on research done by Moody’s Economy.com. In other words, once we reach the bottom, we shouldn’t stay there for very long. Our local economy is strong and housing is relatively affordable.

So when will we reach the bottom of the “V”? Moody’s projects Tampa hitting bottom during the first three months of 2008 with 10.6% appreciation for the year following. But Woolsey notes that predicting the bottom of a real estate market is not that easy. Moody’s prediction is based on data such as affordability, vacancies, the local economy, and the number of investors in the market back in 2005.

While I’m know Moody’s, I do have a degree in Economics. And although it’s been a while, I think I remember one of the first theories I learned was that high supply and low demand puts downward pressure on prices. There’s no arguing that those are the conditions of our current market. But Moody’s does their homework and uses some good data in making this forecast. And you know what? The first quarter of 2008 is not that far off.

Nice to see Irish eyes are watching.

The Channel District is adjacent to downtown Tampa and is in the process of converting from an industrial use area to one of residential lofts and condominiums. Back in 2003–2005, when the local real estate market was most heated, some of the first major residential projects in the area were in the pre-construction sales phase. There were many speculative/investor buyers in the market, and many of them jumped at the opportunity to be some of the first to buy in the Channel District, a.k.a., Channelside.

Fast forward to present day reality, and while some smaller projects were completed in the last few years, the first major projects are now being finished. Buyers who went under contract to purchase Channelside condominiums are now closing on them in a market that has turned tail and run in the opposite direction. Many of these buyers never intended to reside in these properties, nor did they intend to hold them for any period of time. Many buyers’ sole intent was to close on their properties and then resell them in a market that had seen substantial appreciation since pen went to paper back in pre-construction. (See: Condos Suck). It’s a risky, speculative move that can pay great dividends if demand is still there once the mortgage payments begin or once the cash is handed over.

But much has changed since those days of fancy sales centers with trailers made into models of soon to be built condominiums. The demand is not there, prices have slumped, and it’s hard to find a buyer or renter for anything really. As the closings mount, so too does the number of listings in the area.

But The Channel District will be a great place to reside and certainly has a bright future. It is a great location adjacent to downtown and sandwiched between two of Tampa’s more popular entertainment areas, Channelside and Ybor City. Fine dining, The Florida Aquarium , cruise ship terminals, professional hockey, professional football, concerts, a world class airport, great malls and more, are all nearby. It will no doubt some time for the current and swelling inventory of vacant properties to find someone to call them home. Buyers will find plenty to choose from and  sellers willing to negotiate and offer enticing incentives.

THE NUMBERS:

Back in April there were 148 active listings of condos in the Channelside area. Today there are 247 and that number will likely be growing in the coming months. Grand Central at Kennedy, The Place at Channelside, Ventana and The Towers now have their first residents, but many units sit vacant. For the buyer that likes what the Channel District has to offer, you can expect many options and motivated sellers. Prices (currently) range from $190k for a 600 sqft unit at Grand Central, to an almost $2.5m unit at The Towers, Channelside’s only highrise building. The bulk of the Channelside inventory is in the $250k to $500k price range.

Downtown Tampa/Channel District Projects Map

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Since last week at this time the number of Tampa homes for sale has crept slightly upwards while the number of homes under contract remains stable and flat. This is a snapshot view of the market. Data used is from the Mid-Florida Regional MLS for city = Tampa. All brokers/agents included.

But hey, 141 lucky Tampa home sellers did find a buyer to agree to terms with them. Here’s some facts about the properties:

• Average property was priced at $271k and is a 3/2, 1685 sqft built in 1976.
• Zip 33647 (New Tampa) leads the pack with 18 new properties in pending status.
• Listed at $1.5 million dollars, 804 S Delaware in Hyde Park tops the list with respect to price. This home was on the market a whopping 6 days. (more info below).
• 89 of the 141 had price changes since 1/1/2007, and 23 of them dropped prices with in the last 18 days.

Back to 804 S Delaware: Six days to contract is a rare thing in this market, although we just had one go to contract in two. To find a buyer quickly in this market, pricing correctly out of the gate is most important. But 804 S Delaware, listed by Smith & Associates, is a jewel in the Hyde Park Historic District. Homes like this don’t come on the market everyday, and many like this never need the MLS to find a buyer. The listing agent notes that the home is “One of the most beautifully maintained and sensitively restored homes I’ve ever seen.” Built in 1915, the wood frame home has 5 bedrooms with 3 and 1/2 baths in its 4219 sqft.

But if a property is not such a “rare find”, pricing is of the utmost importance in finding a buyer quickly. Sellers and/or their agents must do the homework to analyze the market and judge the home against the others that buyers may be considering, which can be many with the current inventory. Home sellers need to put the buyer hat on and take a good look at what else is available for buyers that may be looking at their home.

• How does the location compare?
• How does the condition compare?
• Does the home have any hidden amenities?
• How does the surrounding area compare?(very important in South Tampa)

These are just a few of the questions that need answering when trying to place a “market value” on a property.

Browse Hyde Park Area Homes For Sale

Gurvich Realty Group of Keller Williams

During the first quarter of 2007 there were 5 sales in Hillsborough County of $2 million dollars or more. (There are 131 active properties listed at $2m or more currently).

Tops in sales price was 58 Martinique Avenue, a new canalfront home on Davis Islands which sold at $3.55 million dollars on February 14^th. Built on an 86’ x 171’ lot, the home features 5256sqft of space with 4 bedrooms and 5.5 baths. Listed by Coldwell Banker and sold by Keller Williams Realty South Tampa.

As for size, 4 homes sold in Hillsborough County during the first quarter are 6000 sqft or better. Tops in size goes to 19112 Holly Lane in Lutz. At over 7300 sqft, this home features 400’ of frontage on Lake Brooker. It sold for $863.5k on February 2^nd. Listed by Johanson & Associates Inc.

Need bedrooms? Well you could have purchased 1010 Hickory Fork Drive in Seffner with all of its 7 bedrooms and 4 baths, 4277 sqft, 3 car garage on over a 1/2 acre. It sold for $595k in early January.

As for age, 910 S Rome in Hyde Park was built in 1902 and sold for $747,650 in late March. This home has the original heart pine Corinthian columns at the entry as well as the original heart pine flooring. Listed and sold by Hyde Park Realty.

And if “you gotta go”, then maybe you should have purchased 937 Shoals Landing Road in Riverview with its 7 and 1/2 bathrooms. This 6319 sqft home listed by Keller Williams Realty sold for $905k in late March.

All data used is from the Mid-Florida Regional MLS, all brokers/agents included.

Gurvich Realty Group of Keller Williams

813–205–1802

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The Multiple Listing Service, or “MLS” contains a wealth of data that reflects the current Tampa real estate market conditions. As members, we can set up what is known as a “hotsheet”. My hotsheet contains new listings, listings with price changes, expired listings, and new pending listings in the areas in which we specialize.

Lately the hotsheet looks very similar to the one shown above with price changes leading the way in the count. The number and frequency of price changes has been on the increase lately as sellers become more competitive and realize what it takes to get the attention of the few serious and qualified buyers out there.