My featured lender has provided a 20 year mortgage interest rate chart which is quite enlightening. I hope you find it to be of value.  It definitely shows that interest's rates are more than excellent. For anyone contemplating a Flagstaff home, the current low interest rates we have should be more than enough to encourage a purchase.  Click here to view the chart: interest rate chart

On another note, our local New Frontiers Natural Marketplace food store will sponsor an Organic Gardening class on Tuesday, April 20th 7:00 PM at the Theatrikos Playhouse on 11 West Cherry Ave.  Jim Mast, Master Gardener, will reveal the secrets that every wannabe gardener in 'Flagstaff needs to know.  This is a class that I will attend as it not only sounds like fun but very informative.

 

have noted that lenders are much more willing to work Short Sales versus facing an AZ Foreclosures on selling.  It appears that many lenders are expediting the process and attempting to follow HAFA guidelines. What are you seeing out there?

Hi All: The USA Today newspaper did a nice article on Flagstaff and Flagstaff Homes.  If interested, you can access this article by visiting my website, www.GreggMunson.com, and clicking on "Gregg's Flagstaff Real Estate Blog".  I hope you enjoy the article.  Thanks for reading.

Hi All: Noted below is a study provided by our local builders and authorities. This analysis seems to indicated that the market bottom has been reached in new constrtuction.  I hope you find this analysis to be of value.  Please don't heistate to contact me with questions.

FLAGSTAFF CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA STUDY OF NEW  PROJECTS THROUGH 2010-2022 (SFR/MFR)
PROJECTS STARTING IN 2005
AZNORTH PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	TOTAL UNITS	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	TOTALS
RIO HOMES (City) Final Phase only	170K-495K	SFR/TWN	14			4	10			14
MAJESTIC VIEW I		800K+	SFR	15		1	1	1	1	1	5
MAJESTIC VIEW RANCH	900K+	SFR	9		1	1	1	1	1	5
Butler Condo/Comm/Apts	100K-775K	MIXED/CONDOS	150			75	75			150
SWITZER CANYON VILLAGE (City)	125K-925K	CONDOS	96		96					96
AZNORTH DOWNTOWN	650K-925K	MIXED	16		4	4	4	4		16
TRAILS END (City)		290K-565K	MIXED	206				20	20	20	60
FOREST SERVICE TRADE	375K-750K	MIXED	300						30	30
NEW PROJECTS       ?		?	MIXED	?							0
		TOTAL		5%	806	0	102	85	111	26	52	376
COMPETITIVE PROJECTS:
CITY:
INFILL	(50 OR LESS LOT SUB)	375K+	SFR/TWN	950	50	75	75	75	150	150	575
CANYON DEL RIO		325K-800K	MIXED	1000					25	25	50
PONDEROSA TRAILS (REMAINING)	375K-850K	SFR/TWN	50		15	15	5	0	0	35
PINE CANYON COUNTRY CLUB	975K+	MIXED (700 UNT)	500	3	10	10	10	10	10	53
AGASSIG ESTATES		900K+ 395k-480k lot	SFR	38				2	2	2	6
PINE KNOLLS Remaining	350k+	TWN	40				10	10	20	40
PINNACLE PINES		395k+	TWN	207		5	15	25	0	0	45
FOREST SPRINGS 4th st Remaining	385k+	TWN	100		5	5	5	25	25	65
PRESIDIO IN THE PINES I	225K-500K	MIXED	740		15	15	15	15	15	75
PRESIDIO IN THE PINES II	385k+	MIXED	1000				50	50	50	150
CLEARCREEK Remaining	325k+	TWN/CONDO/Apt	300	100	25	25	25	25	25	225
ELDEN ESTATES Remaining			345k+	SFR/TWN	50		25	5	5	5	5	45
MCMILLAN MESA VILLAGE (112ac)			380k+	MIXED	250					20	20	40
RAILROAD SPRINGS			335k+	TWN/MODULAR	45		5	5	5	5	5	25
FAIRWAY AT FLAG RANCH (City)	500K-950K	MIXED	200				25	50	50	125
ASPEN PARK "SAWMILL PROJECT"	350k+	MIXED	300			10	12	12	12	46
NEW DEVELOP/MALL HOUSING  ?	?	MIXED	150				10	10	10	30
APARTMENTS/Condo Conv.       ?	900+MO.	MF	300	0	0	50	50	25	25	150
		TOTALS			6220	153	180	230	329	439	449	1780
COUNTY:
INFILL	(50 OR LESS LOT SUB)	450k+	MIXED	1700	30	50	50	10	10	10	160
A-1 MOUNT/FLAGSTAFF MEADOWS	325k+	TWN/SF	336	0	10	10	10	10	10	50
FLAGSTAFF RANCH		850k+	TWN/SF	470	12	20	40	40	40	40	192
NEW DEVELOPMENTS/TWIN ARROWS ?	?	SF	750	0	0	0	20	20	20	60
APARTMENTS   ?		900+MO.	MF								0
		TOTALS			3256	42	80	100	80	80	80	462
	TOTAL UNITS / BUILT HOUSING UNITS		10282	195	362	415	520	545	581	2618
	HOUSING NEEDS (Based on 3% growth backed off for downturnin market)	245	500	515	530	546	563
	SURPLUS/SHORTAGE (shortage due to labor force and approval process)	-50	-188	-288	-298	-300	-282
FLAGSTAFF CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA NEW  PROJECTS THROUGH 2021 (SFR/MFR)
CARRYOVER PROJECTS:
AZNORTH CARRYOVER PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	CARRYOVER	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	TOTALS
TRAILS END		325K-425K	MIXED	146	30	30	30	26	0	0	116
FOREST SERVICE TRADE	450K+	MIXED	270	50	50	50	50	50	20	270
NEW PROJECTS		?	?								0
		TOTAL	792		416	80	80	80	76	50	20	386
COMP. CARRYOVER PROJECTS:
CITY:
INFILL	ALL CARRYOVER	500K+	MIXED	4440	150	150	150	150	150	150	900
COUNTY:
INFILL	ALL CARRYOVER	500K+	MIXED	2794	50	50	50	50	50	50	300
		TOTAL	7664		7650	280	280	280	276	250	220	1586
NEW PROJECTS START
AFTER 2016:
AZNORTH PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	TOTAL UNITS	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	TOTALS
SECTION 20/OTHER STATE LAND	750+	MIXED	1900		50	150	150	150	150	650
NEW PROJECTS		?	MIXED	?							0
REDEVELOPMENT PROJECTS	?	MIXED	?							0
AFFORDABLE HOUSING	200K-300K	MIXED	?							0
		TOTAL	16%	2706	1900	0	50	150	150	150	150	650
COMPETITIVE PROJECTS:
CITY:
NEW (50 OR LESS)		500k+	SFR/TWN	200	30	30	30	30	30	30	180
VILLAGIO MONTANA/ SEC 30 STATE	400K+	MIXED	850	50	50	50	50	50	50	300
LONETREE/I-40 (314ac) "Juniper Point"	450+	MIXED	1500	100	100	100	100	100	100	600
REDEV-STATE LANDS INFILL-ECT	400K+	MIXED	1500	50	50	50	50	50	50	300
APARTMENTS		1100+MO.	MF	600	100	100	100	100	100	100	600
		TOTALS			4650	330	330	330	330	330	330	1980
COUNTY:
NEW (50 OR LESS)		500k+	MIXED	100	10	10	10	10	10	10	60
SPLITS/SPLITS		500k+	SF	150	10	10	10	10	10	10	60
APARTMENTS		1100+MO.	MF	60	10	10	10	10	10	10	60
		TOTALS			310	30	30	30	30	30	30	180
	TOTAL UNITS / BUILT HOUSING UNITS		6860	640	690	790	786	760	730	4396
	HOUSING NEEDS				580	597	615	633	652	672
	SURPLUS/SHORTAGE				-221	-128	47	199	307	365
	TOTALS THROUGH 2016		10128	17142							7014
FLAGSTAFF CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA NEW  PROJECTS THROUGH 2027 (SFR/MFR)
CARRYOVER PROJECTS:
AZNORTH CARRYOVER PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	CARRYOVER	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	TOTALS
All Carryover		550+	MIXED	1280	100	100	100	100	100	100	600
		TOTAL	1280		1280	100	100	100	100	100	100	600
CARRYOVER PROJECTS:
CITY:
INFILL	ALL CARRYOVER	600K+	MIXED	6210	500	500	500	500	500	500	3000
COUNTY:
INFILL	ALL CARRYOVER	600K+	MIXED	2624	150	150	150	150	150	150	900
		TOTAL	0		10114	750	750	750	750	750	750	4500
NEW PROJECTS START
AFTER 2022:
AZNORTH PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	TOTAL UNITS	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	TOTALS
NEW PROJECTS?STATE LANDS	?	MIXED	?							0
REDEVELOPMENT PROJECTS	?	MIXED	?							0
AFFORDABLE HOUSING	?	MIXED	?							0
		TOTAL	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
COMPETITIVE PROJECTS:
CITY:
NEW & STATE LANDS		900k +	MIXED	2500			100	100	100	100	400
REDEVELOPMENT/Other	600K+	MIXED	2500			100	100	100	100	400
APARTMENTS		?	MF	?							0
		TOTALS			5000	0	0	200	200	200	200	800
COUNTY:
NEW & STATE LANDS		900K+	MIXED	?							0
SPLITS/SPLITS		800K+	SF	?							0
		TOTALS			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	TOTAL UNITS / BUILT HOUSING UNITS		5000	750	750	950	950	950	950	5300
	HOUSING NEEDS				692	713	734	756	779	802
	SURPLUS/SHORTAGE				58	95	311	504	675	823
	TOTALS THROUGH 2022             Balance:	9828	22142							12314
					10250
FLAGSTAFF CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA NEW  PROJECTS THROUGH 2033 (SFR/MFR)
CARRYOVER PROJECTS:
AZNORTH CARRYOVER PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	CARRYOVER	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	TOTALS
Old Projects		850+	MIXED	680	100	100	100	100	100	150	650
		TOTAL	680		680	100	100	100	100	100	150	650
CARRYOVER PROJECTS:
CITY:
INFILL	ALL CARRYOVER	850+	MIXED	7410	800	800	800	800	800	800	4800
COUNTY:
INFILL	ALL CARRYOVER	850+	MIXED	1724	156	150	150	150	150	150	906
		TOTAL	0		9814	1056	1050	1050	1050	1050	1100	6356
NEW PROJECTS START
AFTER 2028:
AZNORTH PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	TOTAL UNITS	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	TOTALS
NEW PROJECTS		1,000,000+	MIXED	?	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
REDEVELOPMENT PROJECTS	1,000,000+	MIXED	?							0
AFFORDABLE HOUSING	1,000,000+	MIXED	?							0
		TOTAL	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
COMPETITIVE PROJECTS:
CITY:
NEW & STATE LANDS		1,000,000+	MIXED	?			0	0	0	0	0
REDEVELOPMENT/Other	1,000,000+	MIXED	?			0	0	0	0	0
APARTMENTS		?	MF	?							0
		TOTALS			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
COUNTY:
NEW & STATE LANDS		1,000,000+	MIXED	?							0
SPLITS/SPLITS		1,000,000+	SF	?							0
		TOTALS			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	TOTAL UNITS / BUILT HOUSING UNITS		0	1056	1050	1050	1050	1050	1100	6356
	HOUSING NEEDS				826	851	877	903	930	958
	SURPLUS/SHORTAGE				230	428	602	749	868	1010
	TOTALS THROUGH 2033             Balance:	3472	22142							18670
	EXSTING HOUSING UNITS		22,641 City	29780
	TOTAL UNITS AT BUILDOUT			51922	YEAR	AZ POP	% / 2	# UNITS
						2033	10,000,000	0.52%	25961	Assumes 50% second homes
						11220
						6190
Note: This counts every last parcel to be built so we need to assume that 5% of the total units available will not be built (aprox 1000 to 1500 units)
Note: If we assume that 50% of the housing units are second homes, above is the percentage of the state's population that would have ownership in Flagstaff.
						17410
						3802
						21212
AZNORTH
MARKET STUDY AND PROJECTIONS NOTES
NOTE:
All projections are based on market study and map created and completed February 2005 by AZNORTH.
All projections include information and data for Flagstaff city and county. (surrounding area within 15 miles of city center)(pop est City-62,000  County-18,000)
All projections are based on a 3% growth rate with a average household size of 2.8 persons.
In this study we have counted all property. Note that a percentage of infill lots and ranch property will not be available in this growth period.
All projections do include "all building" both single family and multiple family units including apartments.
It is estimated that at the end of 2016 there will be around 10,000+ new and redeveloped units.
Study suggests that Flagstaff will have a shortage of needed units because of the length of construction, planning, labor force and approval process of projects.
Carryover projects includes all past developments with units not built from 2005-2010 & 2011-2022 & 2023-2028
Price range estimated to be the market value at time of sales.(3 % increase per year)
Projections show that we will run out of private, known Forest service traded and known available state lands to be developed by 2023.
Note that "Redev-State Lands Infill-Ect" include all other projects in the city with an estimate of number of units under the city development plan.
Study suggests that we will be out of all private land in 2020 this assumes we will have developed section 20 and 30 of the state land by 2020.
Jobs 56,000 Coconino County, 2.4% per year new jobs, 2006 Wage 38,126 year,
New units needed 2007-2022 16,200 units with 200-250 per year for second homes
Renters v Owners 50%/50%
AZNORTH NOTES:
AZNORTH has land and projects as of February 2005 of 850+ lots. (averages 50 to 100+ units per year through 2016 to 2023)
AZNORTH projections include taking Section 20 (state land) to bid and not owning the entire property, we intend to develop only part of the 1900 units.
AZNORTH intends to be a bidder on section 26 & 30 State Land and this projection does not include any of that inventory.
AZNORTH plans to supply approximately 10% to 20% of all developments as affordable lots to be made available to the city of Flagstaff for their land trust deed program.
AZNORTH has a Forest service trade and a rezoning to do on two projects that may effect the total projections of market share.

Hi All: It's been awhile since I have done a market update so here's the latest.  Generally speaking, the first few months of the year don't tell much so it's probably best that I do a quarterly report at least in the early months.  Well, as you can see, so far this year it looks like were down from 2009.  I have noticed that volume is up substantially compared to the first quarter of 2009, but nonetheless, prices are down so far.  Perhaps this trend will continue or perhaps the downturn is due in part to the harsh winter Flagstaff has had.  Time will tell.  Thanks for reading.  I will return to doing updates on a more frequent basis.  As always, keep the comments coming.

Warm Regards

Gregg Munson

Associate Broker, ABR, CPDE, e~PRO, SFR

  

CALENDAR YEAR	AVERAGE PRICE	MEDIAN PRICE	AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET	ANNUAL UNITS SOLD	CUMULATIVE MEDIAN % CHANGE FROM MARKET TOP IN 2006
2006	$458,116	$392,500	91	528	MARKET TOP
2007	$436,511	$375,000	108	479	-4.4%
2008	$417,993	$360,000	120	373	-8.28%
2009	$369,275	$325,000	136	479	-17.19%
1st Quarter 2010	$356,578	$300,000	145	74	-23.56%

*Criteria:  Northern Arizona Multiple Listing Service sold data for City of Flagstaff single family homes.  The city is defined as North West City, South West City, North East City, and South East City.  Condos, townhomes, multi-family, land and commercial properties are excluded as are outlying areas.  The exclusion of outlying areas and well as properties other than single family homes will have an effect on values. 

 

I heard through the grape vine that the second home market, not only in Flagstaff, but nationally, should be gathering steam for 2010. The reason for this prognostication is based on the fact that historically, the second home market picks up when ever yacht and fine art sales increase. And yacht and fine art sales are up more than 15% so far. This news should be well received by second home owners looking to sell this year.

Our local Flagstaff Real Estate market, again, remains pretty much the same; i.e. relatively boring.  For November, the average home price is up for the third month in a row and the median price is up for November.   Many would comment that our market has held up well compared to  other areas of the country.  Let's hope this trend continues.  Stay tuned for my new market updates which, by request, will include areas outside of the city of Flagstaff.  These areas such as Doney Park,  Munds Park, Bellemont and others have not fared as well with declines  averaging 20%-25% from the market top.  Thanks for reading and please keep the comments coming.

Happy Holidays

Gregg Munson

Associate Broker, ABR, CPDE, e~PRO

  

CALENDAR YEAR	AVERAGE PRICE	MEDIAN PRICE	AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET	ANNUAL UNITS SOLD	CUMULATIVE MEDIAN % CHANGE FROM MARKET TOP IN 2006
2006	$458,116	$392,500	91	528	MARKET TOP
2007	$436,511	$375,000	108	479	-4.4%
2008	$417,993	$360,000	120	373	-8.28%
January 2009	$433,500	$387,500	117	14 YTD	-1.27%
February 2009	$367,497	$330,950	132	32 YTD	-15.68%
March 2009	$384,884	$330,500	103	56 YTD	-15.79%
April 2009	$360,456	$326,000	127	79 YTD	-16.94%
May 2009	$370,072	$330,000	129	115 YTD	-15.92%
June 2009	$364,568	$331,000	133	161 YTD	-15.66%
July 2009	$371,298	$331,000	134	207 YTD	-15.66%
August 2009	$374,543	$330,000	140	250 YTD	-15.92%
September 2009	$374,004	$330,000	136	290 YTD	-15.92%
October 2009	$372,266	$330,000	104	329 YTD	-15.92%
November 2009	$372,679	$331,000	137	371 YTD	-15.66%

*Criteria:  Northern Arizona Multiple Listing Service sold data for City of Flagstaff single family homes.  The city is defined as North West City, South West City, North East City, and South East City.  Condos, townhomes, multi-family, land and commercial properties are excluded as are outlying areas.  The exclusion of outlying areas and well as properties other than single family homes will have an effect on values. 

By now I'm sure most of us know that the tax credit has been extended.  Will this help Flagstaff Real Estatej-which isn't really suffering that much? In my opinion, the credit should be increased and opened up to everyone.  What do you think?

 

 

Our local Flagstaff Real Estate market remains pretty much the same; i.e. relatively boring. For Septermbert, the average price of homes is down a fraction from August and the median price is unchanged.  Again, as it relates to single family housing in the city of Flagstaff, it's time to buy. Let me know what you think.  I thank you for reading. Please keep the comments coming and visit Gregg's Blog for regular market info and updates.

Gregg Munson

Associate Broker, ABR, CPDE, e~PRO

  

CALENDAR YEAR	AVERAGE PRICE	MEDIAN PRICE	AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET	ANNUAL UNITS SOLD	CUMULATIVE MEDIAN % CHANGE FROM MARKET TOP IN 2006
2006	$458,116	$392,500	91	528	MARKET TOP
2007	$436,511	$375,000	108	479	-4.4%
2008	$417,993	$360,000	120	373	-8.28%
January 2009	$433,500	$387,500	117	14 YTD	-1.27%
February 2009	$367,497	$330,950	132	32 YTD	-15.68%
March 2009	$384,884	$330,500	103	56 YTD	-15.79%
April 2009	$360,456	$326,000	127	79 YTD	-16.94%
May 2009	$370,072	$330,000	129	115 YTD	-15.92%
June 2009	$364,568	$331,000	133	161 YTD	-15.66%
July 2009	$371,298	$331,000	134	207 YTD	-15.66%
August 2009	$374,543	$330,000	140	250 YTD	-15.92%
September 2009	$374,004	$330,000	136	290 YTD	-15.92%

*Criteria:  Northern Arizona Multiple Listing Service sold data for City of Flagstaff single family homes.  The city is defined as North West City, South West City, North East City, and South East City.  Condos, townhomes, multi-family, land and commercial properties are excluded as are outlying areas.  The exclusion of outlying areas and well as properties other than single family homes will have an eff

Another good week for the housing market. The S&P/Case Shiller home price index was up for the third month in a row and the rate of annual decline fell for the sixth month in a row! Price increases were reported in 18 of 20 metro areas measured. Many now feel this data indicates the worst of the price declines are behind us. Time will tell.