The U.S. sub-prime mortgage fiasco is just a blip compared to the economic disaster that is coming for Americans. The U.S. government is going trillions and trillions of dollars into debt. There is the war. There is the recently announced rebates for all 300 million Americans. There are hundreds of billions in bail outs of privately owned banks and corporations. The list of unnecessary expenses is lengthy. More than half of all generated government income (mostly taxes) is being used just to pay interest on this debt. Current trends continuing, it will eventually be all of the governments revenue. Then what? Banks only lend money based on collateral or security. In the case of government borrowing, the taxpayer is the collateral. The contracts that are struck between banks and governments include a provision to raise any and all taxes necessary to satisfy the debt. In other words, when the lenders decide they want their money back, the government will comply with the burden being on its citizens. When that time comes, Americans will wish for the easy days of the sub-prime meltdown.

Scotiabank released an economic report this week. It mentions that the western provinces are driving the national real estate trends. This is not surprising. As we all know, easterner's have been flocking here for years, and there is no end in sight. Work BC is holding four job fairs in southern Ontario over the next week. The organization, made up of BC's top 100 employers estimates there will be 1 million new jobs to fill over the next 10 years in British Columbia. Alberta isn't far behind in these expectations, and Saskatchewan's demand is rising as well. The report also finds that the last decade of real estate cycles is the strongest and most sustained in history. These trends should be just as strong for another 10 years. The report states that we are not in over our heads and have little to be concerned with in regards to the U.S. mortgage meltdown. Only in Western Canada eh?

Four years ago an American could purchase a newer 1700 sq.ft. 2 storey house in Edmonton for $130,000 USD, $200,000 CDN. Today, the same home is $475,000 with either currency. This obviously has an impact on real estate demand. For this to happen over such a short period of time has made it unattainable for the average American. Much the same way that booming prices pushed a whole whack of local buyers right out of the market. The strong dollar combined with a struggling U.S. economy and a volatile stock market has made a lot of people nervous to do anything. These are all natural fluctuations in any marketplace. I have the wait and see attitude.

They say opinions are like belly buttons...everybody has one. When it comes to real estate forecasts you could probably get a dozen for a nickel. The kind that really bother me the most come from non-industry armchair quarterbacks. I've seen investors abandon the very market that has enabled them to retire early because their brother read that real estate is going nowhere but down. Opportunity lost, thanks to brother Bob. I have two suggestions...To the person with the dreams and the desire: talk to a professional. To Bob: please do not give unqualified advice, whether that be financial, medical, legal, etc. Do I really expect to stop people from communicating their opinions? No. People will always have a bellybutton...mine's an innie.

Put simply, yes and no. We have mortgage insurance in Canada, and this is law. American regulators put very few limitations on who can borrow mortgages. It is significantly more difficult to obtain a mortgage in Canada however, if our real estate value drops for any reason, (including economic meltdowns elsewhere) sellers could find themselves selling for less than what they paid. If the situation is long term, we would see people that are considered 1st class borrowers walking away from their homes. This is not a likely scenario, but it could happen. Particularly, when you see the ineptitude of the governments, financial institutions and investment firms that cause and allow economic meltdowns to occur. These outfits should be our biggest fear and they should be under more scrutiny.

We wrapped up our annual Realty Executives Polar Bear Dip this weekend. We raised $19,000 for the Food Bank. Thank you to every realtor who took the plunge in 6C water at the Royal Glenora Club. Thank you to every donor, Edmonton is a warmer place because of you all. Being a member on the Internal Advertising Committee for Realty Executives, I've seen first hand what a difference can be made when we donate our time, money and effort to people in need. Realtors have made a lot of money during these boom years in Alberta. They have also given a lot back to the community. This is usually done out of gratitude. The list of charities and causes we support is lengthy, but when a realtor is willing to freeze his/her jewels to feed the hungry...that's giving!

Well actually they never really left. We are selling just as many properties on a month to month basis as anytime over the past couple of years. The problem is, we have four times the inventory as we had last spring, meaning 75% of the listed properties since spring '07 did not sell. Likewise, it is my guess that 75% of sellers did not need to sell. This has a heavy impact on sellers that do need to sell. (Please do not go and burn your neighbours "For Sale" sign because you know he's only "fishing" for an outrageous price). In the first couple of weeks of 2008 we are again listing at an overwhelming pace. Zone 91 for example (Spruce Grove & Stony Plain) have over 80 new listings against 13 sales. How many even get showings? How am I supposed to sell my clients homes? hmmm... I think I've got some gasoline in the garage.

We are all aware of the term "buy low and sell high". We are in a buyers market and the prices are as low as will ever be again. Some sellers are accepting $30,000 or more under their asking price. If the market value of the property is in line, that is immediate equity that you can pick up. Arrange for a long possession date or rent it out for a few months, and you should realize a nice profit within a year. Not a lot of effort or risk exists. There will however, be a short window of opportunity so don't let the bird of paradise fly up your nose. Just do it!

It was announced this week, three international oil industry giants will move full speed ahead in northern Alberta oil sands development despite rising costs and increased royalties. Wasn't it reported a few months ago the royalties were going to destroy the oil sands? Total E&P Canada (H.O. France) will spend $10-$15 billion over the next few years on an Edmonton area upgrader and new mines, requiring 1,500 new employees. StatoilHydro Canada Ltd. (H.O. Norway) plans to do 200,000 barrels of bitumen a day in a Fort Saskatchewan upgrader. Marathon Oil (H.O. U.S.) is planning on quadrupling production of refining and is spending billions here to achieve it, and this is only the beginning. It's estimated that 100,000 new jobs will need to be filled over the next 18 months in Northern Alberta. All of these new faces will need new places. So the sky is not falling, on the contrary...it's going to be a bright, bright, sunshiny day.