The important Employment report will come out next Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Early estimates are for a loss of over 600K jobs in February.

Before the Employment Data, the ISM national manufacturing index and Personal Income will come out on Monday.

Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market, is scheduled for Tuesday.

Productivity, Factory Orders, and Construction Spending reports will be released on Thursday.

The amount of money the US Treasury will need to borrow to fund government spending seems to rise every week. Two weeks ago, it was the $787 billion Economic Stimulus Plan. Last week, the government announced the $275 billion Financial Stability Plan. This week, the Obama administration proposed a $3.6 trillion budget plan, with an estimated deficit of $1.75 trillion, which is enormous by historical standards. The Treasury will need to issue debt to borrow money to fund all of this. As the government issues more debt, the interest rate offered generally must rise to attract additional investors. Interest rates on similar investments such as MBS then move higher as well to compete for funds from investors.

This final week of February will reveal a number of important indicators of economic growth.

Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Durable Orders will also come out on Thursday.

Revisions to fourth quarter 2008 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released on Friday, along with the Chicago PMI national manufacturing index.

Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence are on the schedule as well.

Fed speakers, the scheduled Treasury auction on Thursday, and new information about government programs also may have a significant impact on mortgage markets this week. Call or e-mail me before you want to lock a rate....and have a great week!

After years of being the "grumpy" one, the cynic, the glass is half empty person, I have finally arrived. Last week someone who met me last year and has spent just a small bit of time with me said "You are such an inspiration, you are always so upbeat and looking at the bright side of things". Whew. That was a goal of mine, and I might have achieved it! 

So what is your attitude like? Are you as sick and tired of hearing complaints as I am? Last week the manager of the local gas station was sweeping the sand off her sidewalk, and commented to me how she didn't even sand her parking lot but look at all of this dirt! She felt the village should come and clean it up, since it's their sand! My approach? I pointed out that all that sand was a sign that she had lots and lots of customers, and wasn't that nicer than the alternative? She stopped, smiled, and agreed that was a better way to look at it, and off she went sweeping and smiling.

How about you? Are you walking about like a grump? Are you complaining all the time about how business is slow, customers aren't buying, and isn't he economic news just awful? Well, given a choice, I will choose to buy from, associate with, and REFER business to someone with a brighter attitude. I have dozens of stories from my connections about how this is their best year yet, how they are working toward their goals with gusto, and how many opportunities there are out in the world right now. It's all in the perspective.

So what's your attitude like? Check the grumpy at the door please, leave it at home, in your car, anywhere but within hearing distance of the people who will refer business to you. Be someone who people want to spend time with, and they will refer business to you.

Have a GREAT week!

Inflation data will highlight a full Economic Calendar next week.

Industrial Production, an important indicator of economic activity, and Housing Starts will be released on Wednesday.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of "intermediate" goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Thursday.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Friday. CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers.

In addition, investors will continue to wait for details from the Treasury on the Financial Stability Plan.

Mortgage markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day.

Mortgage-Backed Securities markets have showed little reaction to the economic data released this morning. January Retail Sales rose 1.0% from December, well above the consensus for a decline of -0.3%. It was the first increase in six months. Economists believe that more consumers postponed their purchases until after Christmas this year, and they don't see the strong data as the start of a new trend. Jobless Claims came in a little higher than expected. Continuing Jobless Claims rose to a new record high. No more economic data will be released today. A 30-yr Treasury auction will take place at 1:00 et.

The House and the Senate agreed yesterday on a compromise $789 billion fiscal stimulus plan. It is expected to pass before the end of the week. The Obama administration estimates that 3.5 million jobs will be added or saved by the plan. The Senate version contained a provision for a $15,000 homebuyer tax credit, but that was dropped in the final version. Instead, the $7,500 first time homebuyer tax credit will no longer need to be repaid.

After I had posted "10 Debt-Free Ideas for Valentines Day" on Monday, I was suprised by the feedback I recieved. ideas Your budget is probably already tight this year as you are paying down debt, adding to savings and trying to survive with current economic conditions. But if you still want to give your loved one something special, here are some gift ideas that say ‘I love you' without making your piggy bank squeal.

Frugal Valentine's Day Gifts

1. Homemade card: Get creative and make a card yourself instead of spending money on a generic store bought one. Cut out heart shapes and add a loving note.

2. Sweet tooth: Make something yummy for him or her. Pull out the cookie cutters and make heart shaped cookies or brownies. Another idea is chocolate covered pretzels or cupcakes.

3. Flowers: Instead of buying an expensive bouquet from a florist, make it yourself. Check out your local big box retailer or even local grocer for great deals. Try and get creative as well. Roses are classic, but there are cheaper options that may be even more impressive. Even a single flower shows you care if you can't afford a full bouquet.

4. Express yourself: Write a poem or sentimental love note. This is something they will keep forever. Buy a sheet of scrapbook paper or parchment to write on to add a little something extra.

5. Coupons: Create coupons or vouchers for him or her to do something special at a later date and time. Some ideas include a massage, a car wash, a day with the kids, or something else that best fits them.

6. Pictures: There are lots of ways to make photos special. Make a photo album online at sites like myphotoalbum or shutterfly. Create a scrapbook of the special moments together from the year. You can also add things to the scrapbook like ticket stubs, program covers, etc.

7. Music: Create a CD full of romantic music or make a CD of your loved one's favorite music.

8. Book: If your sweetie loves to read, buy a book they have been wanting or one from a favorite author, and add a special note.

9. Spa Day: Look for discount deals on spa packages. You can probably find lots of discounts this year. Do a couple's massage or purchase a day of pampering for your loved one.

10. Wrap it all up: Create a basket or box full of great items. Add the CD, the book, a framed photo, scented candles, gourmet coffee/tea and some bubble bath.

Good Luck to you...and a Happy Valentine's Day to all!!

The hype surrounding Valentine's Day has long made us dig deep into our pockets for the traditional roses, chocolates, and jewelry. According to a 2008 report from the National Retail Federation, consumers expected to spend $122 on Valentine's gifts last year. But this February, in the midst of a roller-coaster economy, the flutter many Americans are feeling has more to do with financial worries than a quickened heartbeat caused by love. Remember that there are plenty of ways to show how you feel without spending a fortune. Inspired by the "Debt Diva", Clarky Davis, here are some ideas for 'debt-free dates'.

1. Romantic Dinner: Have a nice candlelit dinner at home. Cooking at home costs much less than going to fancy restaurant. Dress up in something nice and make something new.

2. Treasure Hunt: Create a map and go to all your special places or favorite spots. Hide a little gift at the end to wrap it all up.

3. Day of Fun: Since Valentine's falls on a Saturday this year, you can plan a whole day of activities, which could include breakfast in bed, a day at the park, a movie marathon and a romantic dinner.

4. Movie Marathon: Movies are a great way to spend time together cuddled up on the couch. Pick movies that are special to you both or find something you each like and want to share with one another. Another idea is to watch home videos to bring back memories from your wedding or kid's younger years.

5. Live Music: Check out a concert in your town that you both enjoy. There are also local cover bands that play music of a favorite artist at an inexpensive venue or even for free.

6. Wine Tasting: Many vineyards offer a tasting for around $10. This is a romantic fun way to spend the day. If you make a purchase at the end, many vineyards will even apply the tasting fee to the product.

7. Relax: Take the day to spend relaxing together at a bookstore, a coffee shop or even at home. Sometimes you just need to rest and know you are there for each other.

8. Take a scenic drive: Drive to special place or get out of town for the day. Talk and reminisce about good times.

9. Do a second "first date": Ask all the get to know you questions. Give yourself a low budget and have some fun doing the things you did when you first met.

10. Dance: Take a slow dance at home after dinner or find somewhere free to dance the night away later in the evening.

The US economy lost -598K jobs in January, even worse than the consensus forecast for a loss of -500K jobs. The total losses for 2008 were revised higher to 3 million, up from 2.6 million. Adding in the January figures, the economy shed 3.6 million jobs over the past 13 months, with half of the losses taking place over the past 3 months. The Unemployment Rate jumped to 7.6% from 7.2%, to the highest level since 1992. The manufacturing and construction sectors continued to show weakness. The service sector, which held up relatively well for most of 2008, also posted large declines. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, increased at a 3.9% annual rate.

Despite the weaker than expected economic data, the early reaction to the Employment report was a rally in the stock market and a decline in Mortgage-Backed Securities prices. After this report, investors feel that a large fiscal stimulus package is very likely to pass in the near future, which will benefit stocks. The added supply of debt needed to pay for the plan will be unfavorable for Mortgage-Backed Securities....and Mortgage Rates.

I'm sorry I didn't post this IMPORTANT news earlier, but I've been very busy this morning. Last night, the Senate added a significant homebuyer tax credit to the housing stimulus plan.  Here are the key elements of the credit:

*  The tax credit is for the amount of $15,000 or 10% of the purchase price (whichever is less), with the option to utilize all in one year or spread out over two years.  The credit does not have to be paid back.

*  The tax credit is available to all purchases of any home from date of enactment for one full year - no longer just a first time homebuyer credit.

*  Able to claim the credit against the 2008 tax return

*  Buyers must occupy the home for two years as their principal residence

*  Includes a two year recapture provision (if they leave the home in two years they lost the credit)

*  Purchases of homes by investors are ineligible

*  Sunsets the previous $7,500 Housing Tax credit on the date of enactment

*  The credit is not refundable.  (The $7500 credit was refundable, but had to be paid back).

The bill is still working its way through Congress - The House of Representatives must still negotiate with the Senate, and the House bill does not contain the credit.  So there may be additional changes.  But this is an important step forward.

I have to confess...I was a Facebook holdout. Not because of time....but because of loyalty. I'm an AR kind of guy. The kind that likes to post here, and meet RE types from all over the country.....

Until I was 'yelled at' during a seminar on how to effectively use 'social media' like AR & Facebook to augment (not be the sole driver of) my marketing efforts.

I've been signed up for 24 hours (like my favorite TV show!), and already have 21 'friends'......and 2 new potential clients. All for spending 1 hour yesterday learning the system.

Does this mean that everyone will have instant success by doing this??? No.....but I did....and I don't see why everyone wouldn't. Just use it as an extra tool...not as your sole marketing plan.

Did you know that Jeffry Gitnomer is on Facebook? ...and he is now a 'friend'.

If you are not already using Facebook, I would heartily recommend it!!