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caseshiller: The Real Story Behind Case-Shiller Home Price "Increases" - 08/25/09 10:38 PM
Case-Shiller announced today that home prices rose in June from May by 1.4% for both the 10-city and 20-city indexes.
I'm still trying to figure out why this makes headlines and why people think that this indicates that the housing market is bottoming.
Of course home prices rose from May to June. They did it in 2007 and 2008 too. They do it every year. It is called a seasonal variance.
According to the NAR the median home value rose from $222,700 to $229,000 in May of 2007 to June of 2007.
And then again in 2008, the median home value rose from … (4 comments)
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caseshiller: Case-Shiller: Home Values Down -18.1% Year Over Year - 07/01/09 12:42 PM
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, home values declined by -18.1% from April of 2008 to April of 2009.
While real estate bulls will tout that the rate of decline is slowing down, there are two counter arguments that need to be considered.
First, according to the NAR, home values declines are not slowing down, in fact they jumped in May. Here is what the year over year percentage change in the median home value has looked like over the past several months according to the NAR:
Jun 2008: -6.1%
Jul 2008: -7.1%
Aug 2008: -9.5%
Sep 2008: -9.0%
Oct 2008: -11.3%
… (2 comments)
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caseshiller: Shiller, Bank Stress Tests, And 48% Home Value Declines - 06/07/09 05:50 PM
According to an article in The New York Times by Robert Shiller of the Case-Shiller home price index, the recent government bank stress tests were in the anticipation of a 41% fall in home values. The tests also included a "more adverse" drop of 48 percent from the high water mark in 2006.
In 2006, according to the NAR, the median home value was $221,900. As recently as April of 2009, the median home value in the United States had plunged to $170,200. In other words, the median home value has already fallen over 23%. And yes, I know all real estate is local, but … (9 comments)
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caseshiller: Consumer Confidence: Is The Tail Wagging The Dog? - 05/26/09 10:24 AM
Consumer confidence jumped from 40.8 in April to 54.9 in May, the largest one-month jump since April of 2003, according to Reuters.
In light of May's surge in consumer confidence as well as a deteriorating job market and housing market, it begs the question, is the tail wagging?
What I mean by this is that there are three things that people are going to be economically concerned with; their jobs, their homes, and their retirement or investment accounts. These factors are going to drive consumer confidence.
We know that the job market, despite the government's best efforts to blunt the reports, is continuing to … (2 comments)
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caseshiller: Case-Shiller: Home Prices Fall By 19.1% In First Quarter - 05/26/09 08:30 AM
According to Case-Shiller, home prices dropped -19.1% in the first quarter and are now down -32.2% since peaking in the second quarter of 2006.
While we can debate the accuracy in terms of the percentage changewith the Case-Shiller index as there are a couple of other indexes that track home values with varrying percentage declines, the on thing that is not up for debate is the trend that the housing market is still in a free fall in terms of home values.
The NAR data also points to continued and precipitous home value declines.
Now while this data is concerning, keep in mind … (2 comments)
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caseshiller: Market Price - 04/07/09 09:02 AM
A couple of days ago Spencer Rascoff with Zillow wrote a postabout why the Case-Shiller home price index along with NAR's index were both inaccurate representations of the market.
The point of Mr. Rascoff's post was, "Bottom line: methodological flaws in the median sale price and the Case-Shiller Index make them appear overly negative, which is bad for all of us".
There are two points of difference that I have with Mr. Rascoff's analysis of these indices; the first is the methodology, and the second is the philosophy.
First, in terms of methodology, the NAR and the Case-Shiller use differentdata sets to determine the percentage change in home … (1 comments)
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caseshiller: Home Prices Fall 19% From Last Year - 03/31/09 12:21 PM
According to article by Reuters, Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller is reporting that home values fell -19% in January from last year, this is the largest year over year decline on record. In other words despite all of the efforts by the government, home value losses are actually accelerating.
All 20 of the metro areas that are included in the report showed a decline in home values from last year.
Additionally, home values for the 20 metro index are down 29.1% from their peak in the second quarter of 2006.
Ordinarily I don't put too much stock in past appreciation because it represents only what happened last … (3 comments)
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Mark MacKenzie
Phoenix,
AZ
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Mark MacKenzie Real Estate Planning
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