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existing home sales: Mortgage Purchase Applications Showing Stability - 08/27/09 08:15 AM
The MBA reported on Wednesday that the mortgage purchase application index rose 1% this past week to 280.5.
While the reading of 280.5 does not represent overly encouraging demand for real estate, the index has slowly risen for four consecutive weeks.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose from 5.15% to 5.24% for the week ending August 21st.
Between the recent surges in existing and new home sales, as well as the past four weeks of mortgage purchase applications, it appears that demand has stabilized thanks to precipitous home value declines, an $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit, and a $1.25 trillion Fed funny … (2 comments)
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existing home sales: Pending Home Sales vs. Existing Home Sales - 08/12/09 08:33 AM
With all of the talk about the recent strength in pending home sales over the past couple of months, there continues to be a headwind-effect between pending contracts and actual existing sales that are reported by the NAR.
The relationship between the two indicators has revealed that pending home sales appear to be taking a longer time to close, more like 60 days rather than 30 days, and a smaller percentage of the total pending contracts are actually making it to a successful close.
This attrition rate could be attributed to a couple of influences including the new appraisal HVCC guidelines, the complexities of short sales or … (2 comments)
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existing home sales: AP: "Welcome to the bottom: Housing begins slow rebound" - 08/08/09 05:16 PM
For those of you who read my last post and disagreed with Deutsche Bank's report that nearly 50% of all mortgages will be underwater by 2011, a recent AP report may be more up your alley, so long as you don't think a rising tide of foreclosures will negatively impact property values.
The AP writes, "It was - note the past tense - the worst housing recession anyone but survivors of the Great Depression can remember."
The recent AP article goes on to say, "By every measure, except foreclosures, the housing market has stabilized and many areas are recovering, according to a spate of data … (9 comments)
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existing home sales: Existing Home Sales Indifferent To Rising Mortgage Rates - 07/30/09 08:49 AM
With so much continuing to be made of a housing recovery being contingent upon historically low mortgage rates and a cheap Fed funny money monetary policy, I thought it would be worth revisiting the ongoing relationship between existing home sales and mortgage rates that continues to defy some of the most seasoned economists' logic, including NAR's own Lawrence Yun.
Here is a comparison between NAR's seasonally adjusted existing home sales and Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate mortgage survey over the past several months, this data reveals that record low mortgage rates have had no meaningful impact on demand. You can call it the law of diminishing … (5 comments)
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existing home sales: Pending Home Sales Are Up, But Does It Matter? - 06/03/09 08:39 AM
In light of Wall St.'s sucker rally last month in response to NAR's wildly inaccurate pending home sales index results, I wrote a post detailing just how irrelevant this data was becoming.
Here is what I have found in terms of the relationship between the pending home sales index and the following month's existing home sales.
October 2008 Pending Index -0.7% / November 2008 Existing Home Sales -8.6%
November 2008 Pending Index -4.0% / December 2008 Existing Home Sales +6.5%
December 2008 Pending Index +6.3% / Janaury 2009 Existing Home Sales -5.3%
January 2009 Pending Index -7.7% / February 2009 Existing Home Sales +5.1%
February 2009 Pending Index +2.1% / March 2009 … (5 comments)
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existing home sales: NAR: Home Value Declines Accelerate In April - 05/28/09 08:40 AM
According to the NAR, home value declines in April fell by -15.4% when compared to last year. The -15.4% decline is just off the record decline that was set in February of 2009 at -15.5%.
The latest data is yet another sign that not only is the housing market not at a bottom, but home values declines are still accelerating due to the continued supply and demand imbalance in the housing market.
Here is what the year over year percentage change in the median home value has looked like over the past several months according to the NAR:
Jun 2008: -6.1%
Jul 2008: -7.1%
Aug … (1 comments)
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existing home sales: NAR: Existing Home Sales Are Up, But So Is Inventory - 05/28/09 07:52 AM
The NAR announced their April existing home sales data yesterday which showed that while existing home sales were up 2.9% from last month, the supply of homes were up even more by 8.8% to 3.968 million.
The result of this disproportionate change between the supply and demand was that the month's supply of housing, the leading indicator of future property values, increased 6.3% month over month from a 9.6 month supply to a 10.2 month supply, this is a bad thing.
Considering that extended and broad-based foreclosure moratoriums have only recently expired, we can expect to see an upward trend in housing inventory throughout the rest of … (2 comments)
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existing home sales: NAR's Existing Home Sales Report Disapoints Again - 04/24/09 08:26 AM
For the second month in a row, existing home sales have declined, this time by -3% month over month to a 4.57 million seasonally adjusted rate.
The 4.57 million rate is still off -7.1% from last year and it remains the slowest rate of existing home sales since 1997. Despite record high housing affordability and historically low mortgage rates, demand for real estate continues to be stunted by a deteriorating job market that has seen nearly 3 million Americans lose their job in just the past five months.
And while the inventory of unsold existing homes fell -1.6% from last month to 3.737 … (7 comments)
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existing home sales: Existing Home Sales Report: The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same - 03/23/09 12:38 PM
The NAR published their February existing home sales report today. It showed that home sales were up 5.1% from last month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.72 million. Listing inventory was also up 5.2% from last month to 3.798 million units. The result is that the month's supply of housing currently stands at a 9.7 month supply, which is exactly what it was in February of 2008. The only difference being that the median home value today is worth -15.5 less than it was last year. Do you see the problem?
Despite loan modifications efforts, lower mortgage rates, increases in housing affordability, first … (6 comments)
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existing home sales: Existing home sales contract - 02/26/09 11:04 AM
The NAR reported yesterday that existing home sales continue to face strong headwinds as the pace of sales contracted -5.3% from last month and -8.6% from last year to a seasonally adjusted pace of 4.49 million existing home sales. This is the slowest rate of home sales in over a decade.
As I wrote about on Tuesday, until demand for real estate increases so that we can absorb the excess supply of foreclosures that are on the market, we will continue to experience downward pressure on home values. Unfortunately, based on these sales numbers as well as the recent mortgage purchase … (0 comments)
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existing home sales: Existing home sales, three things to look for tomorrow - 02/24/09 03:09 PM
Tomorrow, Wednesday the 25th, the NAR will publish their monthly existing home sales report.
Here are three things to look for in the report tomorrow:
1.) Existing home sales. "Tell me something I don't know, Mark!" Specifically what you want to look at is the seasonally adjusted annual rate of home sales. This is the rate that accounts for seasonal variances and it is the best barometer of current real estate demand. Currently, existing home sales are the lowest they have been since 1997 and considering mortgage rates are hovering near 5% and housing affordability is the highest on record, one would … (2 comments)
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existing home sales: Pending home sales continue their descent - 01/06/09 10:58 AM
According to the NAR, the pending home sales index has declined for the third consecutive month and is down -4.0% from last month and -5.3% from last year. This index is the leading indicator of existing home sales for the next one to two months and the data represents yet another disappointing indication that the government's efforts to stimulate demand by plunging mortgage rates is not working. The November pending index reading of 82.3 is the lowest on record for the seven years that the NAR has been tracking this data for.
The bigger picture is that this plunge in pending activity in November virtually guarantees that … (2 comments)
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existing home sales: Existing home sales go from bad to... - 12/23/08 10:55 AM
The National Association of REALTORS published their monthly existing home sales report today, and for the first time since this economic and credit crisis began, the numbers revealed that the housing market is not immune to the recent events.
For the past year, each month the seasonally adjusted rate of home sales has ranged from 5.14 million to 4.89 million; a range of +/- five percent. This is an amazingly steady and consistent range considering the turbulence over the past year.
However, this "bottom" fell out in November when existing home sales plunged -8.6% from last month and -10.6% from last year to … (0 comments)
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existing home sales: Existing home sales report due out on Tuesday - 12/22/08 09:24 AM
The National Association of REALTORS will be publishing their monthly existing home sales report on Tuesday, December 23rd.
Briefing.com is projecting existing home sales to decline modestly to a level of 4.95 million seasonally adjusted home sales. This would be less than a 1% decline from the previous month of 4.98 million. If this is the case it would be another strong signal from the housing market that it is showing strength despite the broader economic woes and employment concerns. The market consensus is predicting 4.93 million seasonally adjusted existing home sales.
The other number to keep an eye on in … (0 comments)
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existing home sales: Existing Home Sales Report - What it REALLY reveals - 11/24/08 10:21 AM
My favorite piece of real estate information was published today - the existing home sales report that is put out by the National Association of REALTORS every month.
The reason I like it is because it is timely, it is national and regional, it has home sales and listings, and it shows the past 12 months of data.
If you want to know what is going on in the real estate market on a national level, this report has all of it.
The first thing I look at is the month's supply of housing. I want to see if this number … (0 comments)
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Mark MacKenzie
Phoenix,
AZ
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Mark MacKenzie Real Estate Planning
Office Phone: (480) 600-0330
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