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home value declines: The Real Story Behind Case-Shiller Home Price "Increases" - 08/25/09 10:38 PM
Case-Shiller announced today that home prices rose in June from May by 1.4% for both the 10-city and 20-city indexes.
I'm still trying to figure out why this makes headlines and why people think that this indicates that the housing market is bottoming.
Of course home prices rose from May to June. They did it in 2007 and 2008 too. They do it every year. It is called a seasonal variance.
According to the NAR the median home value rose from $222,700 to $229,000 in May of 2007 to June of 2007.
And then again in 2008, the median home value rose from … (4 comments)
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home value declines: NAR: Home Values Fell -15.1% Year Over Year In July - 08/22/09 10:58 PM
With all of the talk about a housing bottom, I thought I would point out a small little statistic that the media continues to overlook...home values are still falling. And they are still falling in all four regions that the NAR tracks.
Specifically, the median home value fell by -15.0% in the Northeast, -5.9% in the Midwest, -7.1% in the South, and -28% in the West.
According to the most recent NAR existing home sales report, the national median home value fell -15.1% from July of 2008 to July of 2009.
Here is what the year over year percentage change in … (4 comments)
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home value declines: NAR: Home Prices Down -15.4% Year Over Year - 07/26/09 10:17 PM
The NAR announced that home values fell -15.4% year over year from June of 2008 to June of 2009. While bulls would blindly taut that the "pace" of home value declines has slowed from last month's year over year decline of -16.8%, there is still significant systemic risk in the housing market that can't be overlooked, not the least of which is that the pace of foreclosures is actually accelerating.
To give the current pace of home value declines some perspective, something that is often missing, here is what the year over year percentage change in the median home value has looked like over the past several … (1 comments)
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home value declines: It's the month's supply of housing, stupid... - 12/29/08 11:33 AM
For the past couple of months I have been watching the housing market continue to deteriorate while at the same time I am being told by scores of agents that the market is improving, that "all real estate is local", and that all we need is for home prices to fall further and everything will be ok - and yet nobody has been able to provide any data to support these claims (this is not just about home sales but also homes for sale), and more importantly everybody seems to ignore the impact that home value declines and foreclosures have on the … (4 comments)
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home value declines: How low can home values fall? - 12/19/08 01:06 PM
There are plenty of sources to determine how far home values have fallen over the past two years. The NAR, OFHEO, and even Case-Shiller all have their own methodologies for determining price declines.
The monthly NAR existing home sale report shows an -11.3% decline from October of 2007 to October of 2008.
The third quarter report from OFHEO shows home values for the United States are down only -4.0% from last year.
The Case-Shiller report shows a decline of -16.6% from 3Q of 2007 to the 3Q of 2008.
Clearly, these three are not using the same accounting principles, but what is more important … (0 comments)
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Mark MacKenzie
Phoenix,
AZ
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Mark MacKenzie Real Estate Planning
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