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housing bottom: NAR: Home Values Fell -15.1% Year Over Year In July - 08/22/09 10:58 PM
With all of the talk about a housing bottom, I thought I would point out a small little statistic that the media continues to overlook...home values are still falling. And they are still falling in all four regions that the NAR tracks.
Specifically, the median home value fell by -15.0% in the Northeast, -5.9% in the Midwest, -7.1% in the South, and -28% in the West.
According to the most recent NAR existing home sales report, the national median home value fell -15.1% from July of 2008 to July of 2009.
Here is what the year over year percentage change in … (4 comments)
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housing bottom: NAR: Home Prices Down -15.4% Year Over Year - 07/26/09 10:17 PM
The NAR announced that home values fell -15.4% year over year from June of 2008 to June of 2009. While bulls would blindly taut that the "pace" of home value declines has slowed from last month's year over year decline of -16.8%, there is still significant systemic risk in the housing market that can't be overlooked, not the least of which is that the pace of foreclosures is actually accelerating.
To give the current pace of home value declines some perspective, something that is often missing, here is what the year over year percentage change in the median home value has looked like over the past several … (1 comments)
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housing bottom: Jim Cramer: "The Worst Is Over" - 07/17/09 11:24 PM
Despite RealtyTrac's recent announcement revealing that foreclosure filings surged 33% from last year, Jim Cramer is refusing to back down from his shameful housing bottom call that he made in June. In fact, Cramer took his prediction one step further on Thursday when he wrote, "the worst is over" while referencing JPMorgan Chase's recent earnings and statement about delinquencies stabilizing.
While the case can certainly be made that the banking system has been back-stopped thanks to TARP, hundreds of billions of loan guarantees made by the Treasury, and some very bank-friendly tax benefits, it is reckless for Cramer to think that the worst is … (9 comments)
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housing bottom: RealtyTrac: Foreclosure Filings Surge 33% From Last Year - 07/16/09 11:05 PM
According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings surged by 33% from June of 2008 to June of 2009. Additionally, filings are up 5% month over month from May to June. In other words, despite Obama's housing plan, the pace of foreclosures is accelerating.
According to the AP, "It was the fourth-straight month in which more than 300,000 households received a foreclosure filing".
Not that anybody should be surprised, Bush's loan modification plan didn't work either, why would this one? The problem of course is not just housing affordability, but home values. As long as home values continue to deteriorate, loan modifications will only … (4 comments)
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housing bottom: CNBC's Diana Olick vs. Jim Cramer - 06/23/09 08:27 AM
There are housing analysts, and then there is Jim Cramer.
For those of you who don't know, in August of 2008, CNBC's Jim Cramer predicted that the housing market would bottom in June of 2009. Well, here we are in June of 2009, and rather than Cramer swallow his pride and admit that he was wrong, Cramer confirmed his prediction and made a shameful housing bottom call despite the fact that the preponderance of evidence points to continued home value declines.
Diana Olick is CNBC's housing analyst who continues to see weakness and risk in the housing market based on, well, the preponderance of evidence.
So … (13 comments)
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housing bottom: Jim Cramer's "Shameful" Housing Bottom Call - 06/16/09 07:05 PM
To use Jim Cramer's own words, Cramer's housing bottom call today is "shameful".
He has no idea what is going on out there.
Jim Cramer is being an academic, something he accused Ben Bernanke of nearly two year ago.
This is a different kind of market, Cramer. It is not just about stabilizing demand, it is about the relationship of demand relative to the supply of housing, also known as the month's supply of housing. As long as foreclosures continue to flood the market and demand remains weak, home values will erode as they have been for the past 2.5 years.
Cramer's call … (6 comments)
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housing bottom: Jim Cramer's Housing Bottom Call?? - 06/04/09 10:34 AM
"Yeah, it's here." Says CNBC's Jim Cramer as he calls a "bottom" to the housing markets despite home values plunging a near record -15.4% in April while there is still a 10.2 month supply of housing despite massive foreclosure moratoriums (Source: NAR).
Citing low, but rising, interest rates, the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit, and record housing affordability, Jim Cramer is calling a "bottom" to the housing market. But what Cramer is overlooking is that despite all of these "buying signs" and housing stimulus, home sales are still bouncing along multi-year lows. Demand for real estate on a seasonally-adjusted basis has not been impacted … (8 comments)
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housing bottom: NAR Quarterly Metro Home Price Report - 05/15/09 09:39 AM
Every quarter the National Association of REALTORS publishes their metro home price report for over 150 markets across the country. The report shows the quarterly median home sales price for individual metros as well as the percentage change from last year.
Their newest first quarter of 2009 report showed that while "all real estate is local", nearly 90% of markets showed a year over year decline in home prices. Clearly some declines were more than others, but the report is a reflection of the fact that the housing depression is not a phenomenon that is isolated to just CA, FL, AZ, and NV.
In … (2 comments)
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housing bottom: Home Value Declines Continue - 05/05/09 01:16 PM
According to the NAR and their March existing home sales report, home value declines eased but there remains continued downward pressure on home values due to the supply and demand imbalance.
Here is what the year over year percentage change in the median home value has looked like over the past several months according to the NAR:
Jun 2008: -6.1%
Jul 2008: -7.1%
Aug 2008: -9.5%
Sep 2008: -9.0%
Oct 2008: -11.3%
Nov 2008: -13.2%
Dec 2008: -15.3%
Jan 2009: -14.8%
Feb 2009: -15.5%
Mar 2009: -12.4%
A lot of economists, including Ben Bernanke, have been predicting that the housing market is nearing … (5 comments)
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housing bottom: Recession Almost Over? - 05/01/09 02:36 PM
That is the question posed by CNBC's Senior Features Editor Albert Bozzo. The headline of his report is, "US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected".
His rationale is, "Among the reasons for the new optimism: a significant easing of the credit crunch, improvement in consumer spending, a potential bottom in housing, a less-grim jobs picture and expectations that the government's massive stimulus spending could start boosting economic growth sooner than later."
Really?
Let's take it point by point.
1.) The "significant" easing of the credit crunch: I don't think that anybody would disagree that there is a correlation between the access to credit … (22 comments)
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housing bottom: Where is the bottom? - 02/20/09 10:52 AM
I think the question on every American's mind is, where is the bottom, when are property values going to stop falling?
Of course, there is no easy answer because all real estate is local, but the truth is, all local markets are exposed to a lot of the same headwinds like tight credit, job losses, weak consumer confidence, and foreclosures. Every market is up against these forces to some degree and as we are seeing, each of these forces is intertwined.
As Americans lose their homes to foreclosures, property values fall. As property values fall consumer confidence and consumption declines and credit contracts. … (1 comments)
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Mark MacKenzie
Phoenix,
AZ
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Mark MacKenzie Real Estate Planning
Office Phone: (480) 600-0330
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