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inventory: Observations on NAR's Existing Home Sales Report - 08/22/09 10:39 PM
The NAR published their monthly existing home sales report on Friday which showed that home sales rose 7.2% in July from June on a seasonally adjusted rate and are up 5% from last year at this same time.
This is clearly good news as the real estate market needs a massive increase in demand in order to absorb the excess supply of homes that is sitting on the market as well as the foreclosures that are about to hit the market.
The interesting statistic within the report that didn't make the headlines but is just as relevant is that housing inventory, the number of homes … (4 comments)
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inventory: Existing Home Sales Up 3.6% in June, Why That Is Not Enough - 07/26/09 10:10 AM
The NAR announced this week that existing home sales rose 3.6% to a 4.89 million seasonally adjusted rate, the strongest pace since October of 2008. The rate of sales while encouraging, is still off -0.2% from last year despite an $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit and record housing affordability.
Inventory of existing homes for sale fell -0.7% from last month to 3.823 million and is down -14.9% from the same time last year.
The result is that the month's supply of housing is down -4.1% from last month to a 9.4 month supply and is down -14.5% from June of last year.
Without … (31 comments)
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inventory: New Home Sales Stumble In May - 06/26/09 08:37 AM
According to the Census Bureau, new home sales disappointed expectations by declining -0.6% in May compared to April when they fell to a 342,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate.
The current rate of new home sales continues to hover around the record low pace that was set in January of 2009 at a seasonally adjusted rate of 329,000.
The pace of home sales is still down -32.8% from last year, and 2008 was a really bad year for new home sales.
New home inventory of unsold new homes also fell by -35.5% from last year to 292,000.
The end result is that the … (1 comments)
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inventory: NAR: Existing Home Sales Post Modest Gain - 06/23/09 06:51 PM
The National Association of REALTORS announced today that the seasonally adjusted rate of existing home sales posted a 2.4% gain from the previous month to a rate of 4.77 million units. However, sales were still down -3.6% year over year.
While the inventory of homes for sale declined -3.5% from last month and are down -15.3% from last year, there is significant evidence pointing to the fact that we are only in the eye of the storm right now in terms of foreclosures. With the real unemployment rate surging to 16.4%, with a record 12% of all mortgages at least 30 days late, … (1 comments)
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inventory: Jim Cramer's Housing Bottom Call?? - 06/04/09 10:34 AM
"Yeah, it's here." Says CNBC's Jim Cramer as he calls a "bottom" to the housing markets despite home values plunging a near record -15.4% in April while there is still a 10.2 month supply of housing despite massive foreclosure moratoriums (Source: NAR).
Citing low, but rising, interest rates, the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit, and record housing affordability, Jim Cramer is calling a "bottom" to the housing market. But what Cramer is overlooking is that despite all of these "buying signs" and housing stimulus, home sales are still bouncing along multi-year lows. Demand for real estate on a seasonally-adjusted basis has not been impacted … (8 comments)
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inventory: NAR: Existing Home Sales Are Up, But So Is Inventory - 05/28/09 07:52 AM
The NAR announced their April existing home sales data yesterday which showed that while existing home sales were up 2.9% from last month, the supply of homes were up even more by 8.8% to 3.968 million.
The result of this disproportionate change between the supply and demand was that the month's supply of housing, the leading indicator of future property values, increased 6.3% month over month from a 9.6 month supply to a 10.2 month supply, this is a bad thing.
Considering that extended and broad-based foreclosure moratoriums have only recently expired, we can expect to see an upward trend in housing inventory throughout the rest of … (2 comments)
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inventory: New Home Sales Remain Sluggish - 04/25/09 05:39 PM
The U.S. Census Bureau reported this week that new home sales remained sluggish in March with a 356,000 seasonally adjusted rate, down just -0.6% from the previous month but still down -30.6% from last year.
The data that the media jumped all over was that the inventory of unsold new homes declined -5.2% from last month to just 311,000, the lowest inventory number in over a year.
The result of this supply and demand relationship for new homes is that the month's supply of housing dropped from an 11.2 month supply in February to a 10.7 month supply in March, a -4.5% … (3 comments)
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inventory: NAR's Existing Home Sales Report Disapoints Again - 04/24/09 08:26 AM
For the second month in a row, existing home sales have declined, this time by -3% month over month to a 4.57 million seasonally adjusted rate.
The 4.57 million rate is still off -7.1% from last year and it remains the slowest rate of existing home sales since 1997. Despite record high housing affordability and historically low mortgage rates, demand for real estate continues to be stunted by a deteriorating job market that has seen nearly 3 million Americans lose their job in just the past five months.
And while the inventory of unsold existing homes fell -1.6% from last month to 3.737 … (7 comments)
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inventory: Existing Home Sales Report: The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same - 03/23/09 12:38 PM
The NAR published their February existing home sales report today. It showed that home sales were up 5.1% from last month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.72 million. Listing inventory was also up 5.2% from last month to 3.798 million units. The result is that the month's supply of housing currently stands at a 9.7 month supply, which is exactly what it was in February of 2008. The only difference being that the median home value today is worth -15.5 less than it was last year. Do you see the problem?
Despite loan modifications efforts, lower mortgage rates, increases in housing affordability, first … (6 comments)
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inventory: Pending home sales lowest on record - 03/03/09 12:31 PM
According to the NAR, the pending home sales index fell -6.4% from last year and -7.7% from last month to the lowest level on record dating back to 2001.
The pending home sales index is the leading indicator of future existing home sales. This along with the anemic mortgage purchase application index, indicates that existing home sales will likely continue to contract in February and March despite housing affordability being the highest on record.
Currently, as of January with a seasonally adjusted pace of 4.49 million sales, existing home sales were the lowest on record going back to 1997.
The reason this is a problem other … (4 comments)
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inventory: Existing Home Sales Surprise - 01/26/09 10:04 AM
In addition to ipods, it appears many Americans, more than most people thought, celebrated the holiday season with a new home too.
The NAR released the December existing home sales report today which showed that home sales were up 6.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis from last month to 4.74 million units. This is good news, but it is still makes 2008 the weakest rate of home sales since 1997.
Additionally, the inventory (supply), the other half of the real estate equation, dropped -11.7% last month to its lowest level since January of 2007 to 3.676 million units.
The result? A … (2 comments)
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inventory: New home sales report showing mixed signals - 12/23/08 11:39 AM
The new home sales report that was published today by Commerce Department showed improvements in inventories but declines in demand.
The number of new homes for sale, the inventory, dropped -7% from last month and -25.5% from last year to a seasonally adjusted 374,000 units in November.
While this may seem like great news, the true perspective is that new home inventories are only about 9% of the aggregate real estate market which includes existing home sales. And unfortunately, the existing home inventories are virtually unchanged from last year.
New home sales also declined -2.9% from last month and -35.3% from last year … (6 comments)
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inventory: Existing home sales go from bad to... - 12/23/08 10:55 AM
The National Association of REALTORS published their monthly existing home sales report today, and for the first time since this economic and credit crisis began, the numbers revealed that the housing market is not immune to the recent events.
For the past year, each month the seasonally adjusted rate of home sales has ranged from 5.14 million to 4.89 million; a range of +/- five percent. This is an amazingly steady and consistent range considering the turbulence over the past year.
However, this "bottom" fell out in November when existing home sales plunged -8.6% from last month and -10.6% from last year to … (0 comments)
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Mark MacKenzie
Phoenix,
AZ
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Mark MacKenzie Real Estate Planning
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