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Look At The Dollar Rocket - 10/21/08 11:24 PM
One of my 10 predictions at the start of the year was despite the forecasts of most, was the US dollar was going to strengthen against foreign currencies during the year. Well in the last couple weeks the dollar has been on an absolutely impressive tear against almost every currency in the world. The ferocity of this move has simply been amazing, with it moving almost nearly 3% against a basket of currencies in just the last 24 hours. Think of it this way, your dollar in your pocket just got 3% more valuable in the last day, even if it (16 comments)
Credit Market Update - A False Recovery??? - 10/21/08 12:21 PM
It's now been just over a week since the FED, treasury and central banks around the world made some massive interventions to try and stabilize the credit markets. My prediction is that these interventions would do very little to unlock the credit markets the main issue is trust, not liquidity. I've been watching many different indicators very closely for signs of recovery over the last week. One of the main indicators of health in the credit markets is call the TED Spread. I've discussed it many times on this blog but it's basically the spread between three month treasuries and three (7 comments)
Part Of My Halloween Costume Arrived Today - 10/20/08 10:38 PM
I got home from the gym today to find a package I'd been expecting sitting on the porch. It contained a few of the pieces for my upcoming Halloween costume that I'd been waiting for. I like to have some fun with Halloween, but this year I'm not above making a statement too. Personally these two characters scare me more than about anyone right now. So who should I be for Halloween? Hank Paulson?
Why Start A Company In A Bad Economy? - 10/19/08 06:51 PM
This question has been in my mind a lot lately. Anybody who reads my blog knows my outlook on the economy over the next several years in pretty bleak. I believe and have believed for some time now that we're not just heading for a protracted recession, but a downturn that will fit the definition of a depression before it's over. I believe the stock market declines are far from over, despite any any short to intermediate term rallies we may get. I believe the biggest asset bubble, the bond bubble has yet to begin it's collapse and I believe we've (46 comments)
Hedge Fund Manager Who Bet Against Sub-prime Says Goodbye - 10/18/08 04:09 PM
In the past year hedge fund manager Andrew Lahde has become quite famous for correctly predicting and betting on the problems in the sub prime mortgage market and more recently in the commercial real estate market (these problems are just starting). His hedge fund produced a return of over 1,000% in only a year on these bets, at the vast majorities of hedge funds have literally melted down. He sights several reasons for leaving the business, but one of the main ones is the risk going forward of a full scale financial system collapse. "Our entire banking system is a complete (6 comments)
The TRUTH Behind The Credit Market Lockup - 10/15/08 10:47 PM
The truth behind the credit market lockup has nothing to do with liquidity or lack of capital in the system, it is literally about TRUTH itself. Let me list a few examples that illustrate my point. In March, Bear Stearns' CEO goes on national TV and claims they are well capitalized and don't have a liquidity problem. This statement is backed up from the SEC a regulatory agency in charge of monitoring Bear Stearns. Only a week later Bear Stearns collapses and we later learn, they did not just have liquidity problems but were in fact insolvent (effectively bankrupt) by a (12 comments)
More Bailout Details Emerge - Ok, This is Maddening - 10/14/08 01:06 PM
Tonight we found out how the first $250B of the taxpayers $700B bailout of the financial system would get used. According to the bill passed by Congress this money would be used to buy bad assets off of bank balance sheets. Instead it is being used to purchase non dilutive preferred stock mainly in a small number of large banks. We were also told by treasury officials that they only expected to need about $50B of that money a month, and just wanted to the full amount in their back pocket. Well they are already going back to Bush to authorize (55 comments)
You Call That a Bailout, THIS is a Bailout - 10/13/08 07:00 PM
Boy, it's Monday and there is already a years worth of news to report on the bailouts, credit markets and the global economy. The central banks the world game out of the G7 meetings with a real fire lit underneith them, some might say desperate and have been enacting financial measures almost hourly in an attempt to unstop the credit markets. There seems to be a lot of throwing *#$ against the wall to see what sticks, if the markets don't react something that is announced, forget about it and announce something different. Lets start with the US An updated bailout (11 comments)
The "Smart Money's" Take - Sequoia Capital Meeting Notes - 10/12/08 12:02 PM
I thought this was interesting enough to repost on my blog as it is Sequoia Capital's take on our current economic situation. For people that don't know Sequoia Capital is one of the most respected of the large VC firms. There portfolio of companies reads like a who's who of well known Internet firms, many of whom everybody here would be familiar with. I'd had this meeting described to me on Friday, and I was able to get a copy of meeting notes today from another source. This is particularly relevant to me, as I am in the process of building (7 comments)
Credit Market Update For The Week - Bond Market Dislocates - 10/11/08 05:35 PM
Sorry, I didn't get a chance to do updates during the week, things were moving so fast that I barely had the time to keep on top of them myself. Pretty much everybody is fixated on the "crash" in the stock markets with major US indexes plunging about 17% on the week, but equity markets are just a symptom, it's important to look at the cause. The deterioration in the credit markets on a daily basis was simply stunning, and resulted in a near lock down of both intrabank lending and financial commercial paper markets by the end of the week. (27 comments)
Interesting C-Span Testimony About Bailout Fear Mongering - 10/03/08 12:31 AM
I've been pretty disturbed about the amount of fear mongering being applied to pass the bailout bill. This is some interesting Congressional testimony from Rep. Brad Sherman about the pressure that was applied in private meetings with the US Treasury and the administration. "Many of us were told in private conversations that if we voted against this bill on Monday the sky would fall, the market would drop 2000-3000 thousand points the first day and a couple thousand the second day, and a few members were even told there would be martial law in America if we voted no."
Full (19 comments)
Thursday Bailout and Credit Market Comments - 10/02/08 12:16 PM
I haven't given an update in a few days since I've been stuck in meetings all day. Here's where we stand with things, after Congress surprisingly rejected the bailout bill in front on them on Monday, Senate took the lead in reintroducing and yesterday voting for a revised bill. The bill passed by the Congress by a vote of 74-25 on Wednesday night is now up to 400 pages, and at the core is the same bill, just now loaded up with billions and billions of additional sweeteners. These "sweeteners" include over $100B in tax breaks mainly to corporations to help (12 comments)
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