Daily Real Estate News  |  October 1, 2009  | 

Pending home sales have increased for seven straight months, the longest in the series of the index which began in 2001, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August, rose 6.4 percent to 103.8 from a reading of 97.6 in July, and is 12.4 percent above August 2008 when it was 92.4. The index is at the highest level since March 2007 when it was 104.5.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said not all contracts are turning into closed sales within an expected timeframe. "The rise in pending home sales shows buyers are returning to the market and signing contracts, but deals are not necessarily closing because of long delays related to short sales, and issues regarding complex new appraisal rules," he said. "No doubt many first-time buyers are rushing to beat the deadline for the $8,000 tax credit, which expires at the end of next month."

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast jumped 8.2 percent to 85.3 in August and is 12.0 percent higher than August 2008. In the Midwest the index rose 3.1 percent to 90.8 in August and is 7.6 percent above a year ago. In the South, pending home sales increased 0.8 percent to an index of 104.6 and is 8.2 percent above August 2008. In the West the index surged 16.0 percent to 130.5 and is 22.3 percent above a year ago.

"There is likely to be some double counting over a span of several months because some buyers whose contracts were cancelled have found another home and signed a new contract to buy," Yun explained. "Perhaps the real question is how many transactions are being delayed in the pipeline, and how many are being cancelled? Without historic precedents, it's challenging to assess."

Yun also noted that the data sample coverage for pending sales is smaller than the measurement for closed existing-home sales, so the two series will never match one for one.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said first-time buyers need to act now. "Potential first-time buyers must make a contract offer very soon to have a reasonable chance of qualifying for the tax credit," he said. "Congress needs to extend and expand this program because it's stimulating the economy and reducing inventory close to price stabilization points."

McMillan said a sizable number of homebuyers already in the pipeline could be let down because of the tight deadline. "We know there is a pent-up demand because sales are below normal levels for the size of our population. The faster we absorb excess inventory, the sooner we'll turn the corner on home prices, prevent additional families from becoming upside-down in their mortgages, and give Wall Street the confidence to extend credit to other sectors," he said. "Each home sale pumps an additional $63,000 into the economy through related goods and services, so the benefits of extending and expanding the tax credit far outweigh the costs."

Yun said the forecast for home sales and prices depends very much on whether a tax credit is extended. "All we can say for certain is sales will decline when the tax credit expires because we are not yet on a self-sustaining recovery path. It also raises a risk of a double-dip recession," he said. "Extending and expanding the tax credit is the best tool in our arsenal to encourage financially qualified buyers to stimulate the economy and help reduce the budget deficit."

Daily Real Estate News  |  May 5, 2009  |   Share

Potential buyers in areas that were hard hit by the housing downturn have read about bargains, but only find it disappointing when they go shopping.

"Every open house I've been to has been a zoo," says first-time home buyer Sam Rivero, who has looked at 35 properties during the last three months. "If you follow what the media say, you'd think sellers are desperate to sell a house, but when you get there it's totally the opposite."

When the real estate bubble burst, it didn't affect the mid-priced market, said real estate information firm MDA DataQuick. Instead, it created opportunities in troubled neighborhoods and slowed sales in the market of homes priced above $1 million. But in areas where most of the homes sell for $400,000 to $800,000, there are few discounts to be found.

Even the foreclosure market has slowed, says University of Southern California Professor of Real Estate Tracey Seslen. Seslen said lenders with foreclosures are supporting market stabilization and releasing only a few homes at a time to avoid flooding the markets.

"The biggest problem," says Phyllis Harb, an associate with RE/Max Tri City in La Canada, Calif., "is that people are overreacting to housing statistics, thinking they can come in and make an offer 20 percent below price."

Daily Real Estate News  |  April 9, 2009  |   Share

Home Sales: Some Welcomed Signs of Life
The hardest-hit housing markets -- Florida's Gulf Coast, California's Inland Empire, and Las Vegas, among others -- experienced a more than 80 percent jump in home sales during the year-over-year period ended in February.

In Cape Coral, Fla., which had the highest foreclosure rate in the nation in 2008, there are even bidding wars. Experts say bargain foreclosures, low interest rates, and the $8,000 federal tax credit are helping first-time buyers and investors.

These buyers also have an advantage because they do not have to sell a current home to close the deal. However, experts note that the housing market will not recover until banks loosen their lending standards; and these markets could experience another downturn if interest rates rise and the tax credits disappear.

Source: Business Week, Christopher Palmeri, Maria Der Hovanesian, and Gopal Prashant (04/09)

Daily Real Estate News  |  March 23, 2009  |   Share First-time Home Buyers Drive February Sales
Existing-home sales increased in February, reversing losses in January, according to the latest report by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. However, sales activity remains relatively soft, reflecting additional layoffs and buyers waiting for housing provisions in the economic stimulus package to take effect, according to NAR.

Existing-home sales- including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops-rose 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.72 million units in February from a pace of 4.49 million units in January. Existing-home sales are 4.6 percent below the 4.95 million-unit level in February 2008. Seasonal adjustment factors are more volatile in winter months, but sales rates over the past few months show dampened sales activity, according to NAR.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says first-time buyers accounted for half of all home sales last month, with activity concentrated in lower price ranges.

"Because entry level buyers are shopping for bargains, distressed sales accounted for 40 to 45 percent of transactions in February," he says. "Our analysis shows that distressed homes typically are selling for 20 percent less than the normal market price, and this naturally is drawing down the overall median price."

Home Buyer Tax Credit Increases Activity

NAR President Charles McMillan says home shopping activity has picked up with housing affordability at a record high.

"The number of buyers looking for homes rose 5 percent in February, and also was 5 percent above a year ago," he says. "It appears most of the increase in buyer traffic occurred in the latter part of the month after the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit was put in place. At the same time, mortgage purchase applications have risen, so we expect to see sales picking up around late spring."

McMillan notes that more potential buyers are learning about the tax credit, just as the traditional spring home-buying season begins.

Existing-Home Sales Rise in February

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $165,400 in February, down 15.5 percent from a year ago when the median was $195,800 and conditions were close to normal. The median is where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

"Given the downward distortion in price comparisons due to distressed sales, it's important for owners to keep in mind that this doesn't equate to a similar loss of value for traditional homes in good condition," Yun says.

Housing inventory: Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 5.2 percent to 3.80 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.7-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from January. In the six months prior to February, the total number of homes for sale had steadily declined from a record level last July.

Single-family home sales: rose 4.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.23 million in February from a level of 4.05 million in January, but are 3.6 percent below the 4.39 million-unit pace in February 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $164,600 in February, down 15 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales: increased 11.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 490,000 units in February from 440,000 units in January, but are 13.1 percent lower than the 564,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $172,200 in February, which is 18.7 percent lower than February 2008.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 5.13 percent in February from a record low 5.05 percent in January. The rate was 5.92 percent in February 2008. Last month's average mortgage rate was the second lowest since data collection began in 1971. Last week the rate further declined to 4.98 percent.

Regional Breakdown

Yun says a recovery in the West is much stronger than expected. "Strong sales gains in the West are led by California, where the median listing price is beginning to rise for the first time in three years," he says.

Here's how existing-home sales fared across the country:

• Northeast: jumped 15.6 percent to an annual pace of 740,000 in February, but 14.9 percent below February 2008. Median price: $251,200, down 4.8 percent from a year ago.
• Midwest: increased 1 percent in February to a pace of 1.04 million but 14 percent lower than a year ago. Median price: $131,000, which is 7.8 percent below February 2008.
• South: rose 6.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.74 million in February but 11.2 percent below February 2008. Median price: $146,700, down 10 percent from a year ago.
• West: increased 2.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.2 million in February and remain 30.4 percent higher than a year ago. Median price: $204,600, which is 30.3 percent below February 2008.

Daily Real Estate News  |  March 2, 2009  |   Share 
Home owners who decide to rent out their properties have to stop thinking of themselves as home owners and instead consider themselves as running a small business, experts say.

Thinking like a businessperson means focusing on the monthly cost of maintenance, mortgage and taxes, as well as being aware of landlord-tenant regulations and avoiding liabilities.

Here are key issues to consider:

• Set a fair rent. Setting the right price will make it more likely that a landlord will be able to keep the place rented.
• Understand landlord-tenant rules. Running afoul of landlord-tenant regulations and rules regarding security deposits can be costly.
• Screen applicants. Eliminating potential tenants who can't pay or who won't take care of the property is very important.
• Lay out the rules in a lease. Widely available sample leases can help. If you have questions, ask an attorney.
• Consider a property manager. Despite the expense, turning the job over to experts can help a landlord come out ahead.
• Talk to the condo association. If the property is a condominium, be prepared to deal with a host of regulations.

Source: The Washington Post, Renae Merle (02/28/2009)

Who Will be Eligible for Foreclosure Help?
With the federal government hoping to finalize details for its $75 billion foreclosure prevention program by March 4, officials are fine-tuning eligibility requirements.

So far, they are targeting borrowers who spend more than 38 percent of their earnings to make loan payments on primary residences.

The Mortgage Bankers Association wants the Obama administration to broaden the refinancing component of the initiative, noting that the threshold of 105 percent of a home's current property value is inadequate to help home owners in battered housing markets like Arizona, California, and Florida.

Source: Washington Post, Renae Merle (02/20/09)

Daily Real Estate News  |   February 10, 2009  |  

To speed recovery of the housing market, Fannie Mae in March will begin purchasing and guaranteeing mortgages for borrowers carrying loans on as many as nine other properties, up from the current limit of three. However, the number of months of reserve payments that must be held by investors will rise to six in June from two currently. "One of the things that leads the economy out of a housing crisis is when prices get cheap enough that investors start moving in and buying things," says Joe Garrett of the Berkeley, Calif.-based consulting firm Garret, Watts & Co.

Source: American Banker, Harry Terris (02/10/09)
Copyright Info Inc.

Daily Real Estate News  |   February 10, 2009  |   Share

The inventory of existing homes for sale in 29 major markets covered by ZipRealty declined an average of 2.5 percent in January 2009, compared to December 2008 and down 13 percent compared to January 2008.

This is a good sign, especially when considering that typically inventories rise in January after the holidays. In the last 25 years, the average increase in inventory in January has been 8.7 percent, according to Ivy Zelman, CEO of research firm Zelman & Associates.

Housing-market analysis Altos Research reached similar conclusions, saying that the listings in its 10-city composite index declined 3.3 percent in January compared to December 2008.

This data doesn't include New York City, where appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc. reports that inventories were at the highest level in the last decade, up 6 percent from December and 36 percent from January 2008.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James Hagerty (02/10/2009)

I thought this was interesting. Being in Las Vegas, our residents know that Summerlin is a large Master Planned Development (neighborhood) within Las Vegas, and not a city, so the fact that it was singled out is interesting, but even more interesting is how much more it grew as compared to the other "growth" areas.

Daily Real Estate News  |   February 10, 2009  |   Share

In the last decade, there have been hundreds of communities in every state that have seen significant growth in new homes. Many of them are outside the urban core and often far from established centers of employment. In a new report, BusinessWeek poses the question: Will the current economic slowdown put an end to these communities?

"The boomtowns of this decade are not booming so much in the last couple years," said William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., tells the magazine. "It's possible those places will come back again. A lot depends on where the economy grows and where the new knowledge centers are."

BusinessWeek worked with Gadberry Group, a business location company, to identify communities in every state that have experienced the largest growth. The results were published in a report called "America's Biggest Boomtowns."

The top ten fastest-growing communities:

1. Summerlin South, Nev., 618 percent
2. Katy, Texas, 168 percent
3. Wentzville, Mo., 160 percent
4. Spring Hill, Tenn., 157 percent
5. South Carolina, 156 percent
6. Brighton, Colo., 153 percent
7. Wesley Chapel, Fla., 151 percent
8. Lehi, Utah, 110 percent
9. Canton, Ga., 99 percent
10. Oswego, Ill., 98 percent

Source: Business Week, Prashant Gopal (02/06/2009)

Daily Real Estate News  |  September 9, 2008
Mortgage brokers say Monday was the busiest day they can remember in the last couple of years.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell to 6.04 Monday, about a third of a percentage point lower than on Friday, before the federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

On a $200,000 loan, that's about a $500 annual savings - significant but not enough to turn around the housing market, analysts say.

Nevertheless, at online mortgage firm Quicken Loans, applications Tuesday were more than double what they had been in recent weeks, says Bob Walters, the firm's chief economist.

Source: The Washington Post, Dina ElBoghadady and Renae Merle (09/09/08)

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