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Everyone wants a starbucks a few blocks away from their house.  There is a belief that having a Starbucks in your neighborhood actually increases the value of your home - since Starbucks is the BMW/Lexus brand of coffee.  I believe that's an urban myth but I do have a hypothesis that Whole Food locations are closely correlated with high home valuations.

In order to support a Whole Foods in your neighborhood you need one of two things - lots of money or easy access for people with lots of money.  There is no denying that if you buy 100% of your groceries from a Whole Foods your food bill would be 20-30% higher than a Safeway.  For most people that would work out to $2K-$3K incremental grocery bill.

So my theory is this;  for expensive areas of town look no further than the Whole Food locations that have been around for 3-5 years, for up and coming areas of town look for the 'soon-to-be-open' Whole Foods and for any Whole Food locations that are within minutes of a highway - well forget everything i said - because that makes it easy for people with lots of money to shop there.

Now what good would a theory be if i didn't test it.  Below is a Zillow heat map of home valuations from Zillow.com (my employer).  I've plotted in pink arrows all the current locations of Whole Foods and in green arrows all the 'soon-to-be-open' locations.  

 

 

Wow, what a surprise.  There isn't one Whole Foods (current or 'soon-to-be') in any of high rent areas of Seattle - but all of the current ones are within a stone's throw of Seattle's major highways.  I assume Whole Foods needs to balance their building rent and the proximity of their shopper base.  It is interesting to note that the 'sonn-to-be' locations are breaking away from their highway strategy and imbeding themselves into neighborhoods.  We'll wait and see if this strategy pans out for them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
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Mark Eamer

Seattle, WA

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Office Phone: (206) 470-7126

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