I had a good day on the market commentary today, beat the other sites to the punch and called the action pretty well.  Let me know if you want to subscribe to automatic alerts or if you have suggestions.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/

I update every morning and every time a "rate mover" hits the market.  Good marketing tool for brokers and good tool for realtors to stay informed on our side of the market.  Suggestions welcome.

 

Thanks,

Matt

 

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/1272007_ARM_Freeze.asp

 

Here's some venting by me last night.  Enjoy and let me know if you have thoughts on the topic:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/1272007_ARM_Freeze.asp

 

http://community.mortgagenewsdaily.com/blogs/mortgage-rates/archive/2007/12/05/12-5-07-much-less-quiet-today.aspx

 

Please share this with your clients and partners.  You have my permission to link to it on your websites, the more people that do, the more exposure it will get.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/1232007_Mortgage_Market.asp

 

Mortgage Rates and Market Commentary

11/28/07 - Big Gains in dow, little movement in mortgage rates

The Dow has continued upward today led by Financials, Google, Amazon, and Ebay, currently up over 250 points.  Most are attributing this to several factors:

1. Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn suggested the possibility of future rate cuts in a Speech to the Council on Foreign Relations. 

2. Oil is lower

3. The market had sold off to such an extent that many saw the dip under 13k as a buying signal, hence the back to back up days

 
What's interesting is that the power of the above 3 factors is overwhelming some normally important indicators that affect bond prices.  Durable Goods report was much more negative than anticipated, normally good news for bonds.  Though this has helped to offset some increase in bond yields today, the immense strength of the Dow has squeezed some money out of the bond market.  As a result, Yields are up today, but thankfully, not as much as they would normally be considering a 250+ pt Dow improvement.

The 10 year yeild is currently at 4.02

The best surprise of all is that the FNMA 30 year fixed MBS is relatively unchanged, currently BETTER by 2/32nds. 

So even though the Dow is WAY up and the 10 year yield is climbing too, mortgage rates have stayed relatively unchanged thanks to the week Durable Goods data and a continued influx of negative information about the housing market.

Mortgage Rates and Market Commentary

http://community.mortgagenewsdaily.com/blogs/mortgage-rates/default.aspx 

11/27/07 - 2 STEPS FORWARD, 2 STEPS BACK

30 YEAR FIXED NOTE RATE = 5.75%**

LOCK RECOMMENDATION = Short term lock.  20 days+ Float.

 

It's a strange day in the markets. Several indicators should be leading to improved interest rates, namely the worse than expected consumer confidence report and the sharp decline in home prices.

Despite this, the Dow is up almost 200 points right now and climbing.  Why!

Scanning the financial news today, it's hard to get a commitment from any of the major news outlets as to why the big swing has occurred.  I'll take a stand.

 Sure we have decreased oil prices this morning.  Also, banks are up after the news that Citigroup will receive a huge investment from overseas.  And these things have helped the stock market to some extent but certainly don't account for the huge swing we've seen this morning.

 IT'S TECHNICAL.  You'll hear me talk about technical factors frequently.  My favorite analogy is the rubber band.  Thinking of technical factors is like thinking of a rubber band that traces the moving averages of the bond and stock markets.  The more the rubber band gets pulled away from the baseline, the more resistance for it to go any further. 

 
That is what is happening last night and this morning.  Yesterday afternoon the bond market was overbought and the Dow had a reactionary sell-off.  The 10 year note was at a 3 year low.  Although investors were calmed by the the investment in Citigroup, the extra oomph that the market has this morning is the pendulum swinging back from yesterday afternoon's exuberance. 

As such, mortgage rates have dialed back a bit with a 30 year fixed costing an additional 0.25% of a discount point.  If stocks stay at the 200 level throughout the day, expect another .125% worsening by the end of the day.

If you have a loanclosing immediately, lock it now.  Beyond that, the weak consumer confidence is a reasonable sign that we could expect to go even lower in the weeks to come.  Keep an eye on the financial reports coming out this week for further indication.

 

 

**Daily quoted rate is always the closest to the PAR rate from our best lenders.  It can include fees depending on how you structure you loan.  It also depends on qualifications.

This is bad news for Countrwide and it was good news for bond markets:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/21978972

 

Mortgage Rates and Market Commentary

MID-DAY IMPROVEMENT

IMPROVEMENT : APPROXIMATELY .125% DISCOUNT POINT

 

COMMENT:

More concerns on wall street about "credit crunch" are having effects on the markets.  The Dow is currently only down about 50 points, but the FED's announcement to pump capital into the ailing credit market in conjunction with more announcements about subprime write-downs have led traders to shift even more money into bonds, which is good for rates.  On top of that, there is concern mounting about retail sales as retailers have reported that, although the volume of shoppers was good, they were not spending as much money. 

 Stay tuned for the rest of the weeks info.  If the economic reports back up this market wariness, expect even lower rates.

 

The 10 year note is approaching 3.90, and the Fannie Mae 30 year 6.0% note is improved by 10/32nds now on the day.

 

Hi Active-Rainers!  I'm going to start posting my daily market commentary on my blog here.  There are A LOT of false and misleading mortgage rate quotes out there.  I post the PAR rate from my best lenders every day.  If you have any questions, big or small, about mortgage rates, just let me know and I will create a FAQ

Mortgage Rates and Market Commentary

11/26/07 Slight Improvement

30 YEAR FIXED =                     5.75% NOTE RATE. 

                                                5.87%**  APR

LOCK RECOMMENDATION =    RECOMMENDED

 

Happy Monday!  It looks like the mortgage market had it's head in the bushes on friday to a small extent, waiting to make sure there was not going to be a huge rebound in the Dow.  Even though the Dow did rebound, it didn't affect mortgage rates as much as one would normally anticipate. 

 
Now Monday has arrived and stocks are down slightly.  With no significant economic data set to release, this lack of rebound in the stock market has nudged traders even slightly more toward the bond market.  When competition increases in the bond market, prices go up, and rates go down.

The 10 year note is at 3.97% yield, which is just slightly lower than Friday.

The more important 30 year mortgage-backed-securities are also down just slightly with the 6.0% note changing 4/32nds for the better.

This is an action packed week in terms of economic data that will affect mortgage rates.  There will be plenty of news and speculation about retail sales as we enter the busy retail season.  The worse retail sales, the better mortgage rates.

Stay tuned tomorrow for the extremely important Consumer Confidence report to be released at 10AM EST.

For now, I'm still recommending locking your loan even though we may go lower.  This is due to the technical factors of the mortgage rate average.  In other words, even though we might go lower, the technical reading of the numbers suggest it's more likely that we stabilize or go higher.  It's the more conservative bet.  If you think that retail sales and consumer confidence will be weak, then float.

 

** Annual Percentage Rate takes loan fees into account.  There are lower and higher rates available depending on how you structure your loan.  Not everyone would qualify for today's best 30 year rate.