Fuzzy Numbers - 02/28/07 01:21 PM
Each month we get two reports back to back.The Existing Home Sales Report and the New Home Sales Report.While they sound like they are pretty much the same they are indeed drastically different.The Existing Home Sales Report derives it's figures and data from The National Association of Realtors. It's based on exactly what you might think it is, the number of existing homes sold over a given period of time.Existing home sales account for roughly 85% of all home sales.The New Home Sales Report doesn't come from N.A.R. - it comes from the builders themselves.It's what we call a fuzzy number.It's … (0 comments)

Doom and Gloom... - 02/28/07 10:59 AM
  While this is a stock market (equity) story it also has dramatic parallels to the housing market. I was talking to one of my stock market friends last night about yesterdays stock market drop. This guy has worked on Wall St, he's been down in the pits, he's a true seasoned professional. In case you didn't know the market dropped dramatically. The Dow dropped 416 points in one day. The largest single day loss in 5 years. At one point in the day, the computers couldn't keep up with the orders and they saw a drop of over 100 points … (3 comments)

The "Right" Answer - 02/26/07 05:28 PM
As I was talking to a Realtor the other day on Broker Tour,They had happened to see me on the News where the host had asked me the question,
"If you make $90,000 a year and have $25,000 in the bank can you afford to buy in the Bay Area?"The Realtor and I were having a lively discussion about what the right answer would or should be.I was contending there is actually two correct answers, the TV version and the Reality answer.The TV answer is short. It's a broad based statement. It's a generalization. It comes with obligatory YMMV stipulations (Your … (0 comments)

"Paging Dr. Mueller to the White Courtesy Phone..." - 02/23/07 01:59 PM
"Hi, my name is Mike MuellerI'm not a real Doctor but I play one on TV...I have a problem, it's a serious problem, and guess what?I know you have it too!It effects each and every one of us every day."
 Actually the realization is closer than you may think.
 I am a highly trained, highly skilled, Mortgage Professional.While the real doctors are also highly trained, skilled professionals we both use much of the same systems and tools.We both rely heavily on new and complicated technology.This technology allows us to make better decisions in our recommendations.Yet nothing replaces a human smile, a warm handshake, … (4 comments)

Friday fun-ness - 02/23/07 02:43 AM
No, I am not really a 17 yr. old gamer.  That really is my picture over there ------------->
But a client sent this to me and I thought it was good enough to share with you all.
After all, it's Friday (on the east coast anyway) - loosen up!
So this is a cute little flash game called Mansion Impossible
The object of the game is to buy and sell houses, hopefully making a profit until you can 1031 Exchange them all for the Mansion on the Hill.
(OK,  so I made up the 1031 Exchange part)
Get this...  The house values go up AND sometimes they … (29 comments)

Don't Accelerate Your Mortgage! - 02/22/07 02:22 PM
A recent post here started me leaving a comment.
Quickly the size of my comment became the size of a post.  So now it's a post!  Not wanting to point fingers, I'll leave the link to the original post commented out and just offer this up as just good information.  I'll also warn you now, I may have a strong feeling about this.  ;)
Remember the Bruce Cockburn song entitled "If I had a Rocket Launcher"
 
I work in a large office building.  In our building there is a mortgage company that hires extremely un-qualified loan officers, as many as they can.  They … (21 comments)

Ebay Scam, Beware! Phishing Alert! - 02/22/07 11:07 AM
Phish may be a great band (myself being a self described closet Deadhead)
"Heavy Things" (song reference) may come down on you if you don't heed this warning...
But this isn't about the band called Phish - it's about a scam that is becoming quite popular on ebay.
This was just sent to me by an associate and I thought it might be beneficial to anyone who uses ebay.
Personally, I've sold maybe three things in my life on ebay.It turns out I really don't like packing things, boxing and taping them up, and going to the post office and waiting in line.  I'm an … (7 comments)

CPI and what it all means - 02/21/07 12:51 PM
 
I last wrote about CPI 2 months ago (back in December).It had to do with the November CPI and Core CPI dataSometimes I like to go back and read what happened and why.It gives you a perspective on how topsy turvy the markets can be sometimes.Here's the post from December: LINK
 
Here's a rehash of the why and what of CPI:
It's put together by the Dept. of Labor and is a weighted average of prices of a specified set of goods and services purchased by consumers.In simple terms, it tracks the prices of a "specified basket of consumer goods and services, providing … (0 comments)

Conspirator or Patsy? - 02/21/07 10:57 AM
Who's to blame?No this isn't about Lee, I'm talking housing and Sub Prime Lenders.I've posted about the Sub-Prime Lenders taking heat in the news for making so many bad or questionable loans. I've also posted recently about the closing of doors for some of these companies. It all comes back to them having to buy back, or take the loss, of some or all of the bad loans they've made.We (the public) have to have someone to pin the upcoming onslaught of defaults on.
These companies can and will suddenly announce they're closing.In regular business terms they are not running that … (2 comments)

Friday's Fraud Story - 02/16/07 05:33 PM
Honest Confession:In some perverse way I think I may actually get a kick out of these posts.I'm very sorry.Somewhere, someone was deeply effected by the fraud and indeed lost something of value. Their lives were not improved but instead were damaged by the actions.Don't get me wrong.I am certainly not rooting for the bad guys.Maybe it's more of a matter of my astonishment of their cunning ways. I really can't put a finger on it.Why do we like all the cops shows?CSI, Law and Order, and the like?They all certainly all have victims, people who have lost something.I pride myself on … (18 comments)

Boxes, Part 2 - 02/15/07 05:45 PM
In Part 1 I discussed the advantages and disadvantages of being a direct lender.In essence, if it doesn't fit in their box it doesn't fit, and they have to decline the loan.From a Borrower's point of view...Let's say our Borrower walks into Bank A, applies for a loan.
A week or two later they find out they were turned down.That's OK, they didn't really like that bank anyway.So they go to Bank B.Same application, same documentation, and unfortunately the same results.Undaunted, they go to Bank C.Applied, Documented, and Turned Down!3 strikes and You Are Out!"That's it dear, We are un-financable!"End of story … (0 comments)

The Lead Gen Biz - Part One - 02/13/07 07:11 AM
So I caught a little flak over my explanation of the LTree and it's business model.LINKNo biggee.If I get this right, I am the "Flak-er", and they would be the "Flak-ees".The Flak-ees reactions ranged from the standard issue knee jerk "Duh", to eye opening wild disbelief.Let's do this in two parts:
Part One - the answer to the Dee-Dee-Dee side, (Carlos Mencia reference)...Some of the Flak-ees maintained that the Tree was and is doing what it needs to do to stay in business. In order for the Tree to continue offering the great services it does to us poor consumers, they need … (8 comments)

Boxes, Part 1 - 02/08/07 02:25 PM
PART 1: The Lender BoxNo this isn't about a Justin Timberlake song."I'm giving you a loan in a box..."Don't even go there - you haven't heard me sing!This is about the difference between a direct lender and a broker.Another way of saying it,it's about the difference between a Mortgage Banker and a Mortgage Broker.The question seems to comes up from time to time and here's how I explain the difference.I've was a Mortgage Banker for years and years.I am now a Mortgage Broker.Is that better?No, it is neither better nor is it worse.It is what it is.Picture a lender, any lender.While … (0 comments)

Scarcity is a Value - 02/06/07 11:42 AM

Over the weekend we held our Investing in Real Estate: 101 seminar.We filled the big room of the Walnut Creek Marriott. 150 people if I heard right.No room for walk ins.I heard nothing but good comments so far.One of the best things (I think) in doing these seminars is that each and every person has a card they can turn in before the end and have their question answered. They don't have to stand up, they can ask anonymously, and get a real answer to maybe something they were afraid to ask.The question came up, "Where would you suggest investing in?"It's … (7 comments)

BUY, SELL, HOLD - 02/01/07 10:56 AM

We're doing another Investing in Real Estate 101 seminar this weekend.This one will be at the local Marriott in their largest room.And guess what?I just found out we're overbooked!Not only are we sold out, we're really oversold!"I'm sorry Mr. and Mrs. Smith we're going to have to bump you to a later flight, Oooops, I mean seminar."Room capacity is 120.  Let's just say, we're going to be cozy in there!The good news: More than 100 people are going to get some solid education in investing.The bad news: You are probably not going to be one of them.So just in case, here's … (1 comments)

 
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Mike Mueller

Walnut Creek, CA

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