Actually the answer is both.

If you follow the news then the gloom and doom is everywhere. See http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2009/05/27/home_prices_sales_plunge_in_bay_state/?page=full to find out how bad things may be.  The flip side is if you are trying to buy a nice house, in a nice neighborhood, in a nice town with good schools you may get a surprise and find yourself with a lot of competition!!

Locally in Burlington, Bedford, Woburn, Stoneham, Melrose and Reading to name a few, homes that are in top shape and somewhere between $350,000 and $450,000 are attracting a lot of attention. Homes featuring a new granite kitchen with tiled bathrooms and shiny hardwood floors are finding themselves with multiple offers and in some cases are only on the market for a matter of days before going under agreement.

 How do you rationalize this conflicting information? I do it in a couple of ways. First and foremost real estate is a very local event. So what the averages are for 20,000 home sales across the state in March has no direct bearing on what is happening to your house, or the one you want to buy in Burlington in May. If you look on my website I put together up to date information on specific towns. If you look at Burlington (http://www.greatlexingtonhomes.com/burlington_mon_SFmkt.html ) the spring activity has jumped dramatically and sellers of homes in good condition have reason to be optimistic. Secondly, young, dual income couples have been waiting for a couple of years now to buy a home and start families and they have been given a push by the government to do something now. So with lower prices, very low mortgage rates, and a tax incentive they are out in force and looking to buy. But not just anything, they want a nice house, in a nice neighborhood, in a nice town with good schools. So guess what, there is a lot of competition for those prime properties.

So if you want a bargain, you can certainly find them if you are willing to compromise and do some repairs and such. If you want the dream home, it will be a bit cheaper than 2005/6, but you may still have to fight your way past 4 other couples to be the new owner.

To help figure out where you fit in this market and for local help on, in my local markets please send me an e-mail or give me a call.

I've been a bit delinquent about updates here. I spent a month or more upgrading my website and getting some meaningful information posted to help anyone looking to buy or sell in the greater Lexington area. Please go and take a look over at www.GreatLexingtonHomes.com.

I just finished updating the area market reports on the site. Looking at Lexington, Bedford, Arlington, Burlington, Waltham and Woburn I can safely say that the sky is not falling. It seems that a lot of people are sitting tight and the market volumes are down from historical levels. The good news in this is that for the most part single family home prices have remained relatively stable. Off from their 2005 highs, but no catastrophic price drops.

There are detailed reports for all of the towns on my site if you are interested. Also for condos in Arlington, Waltham, and Woburn. The Woburn Condo market is the only area market showing significant distress.

I hope that we will see some constructive action from our new President and his reinforced congressional support. That way when everyone comes out of hibernation in the spring, buyers will have an easier time getting mortgages and the sellers will be more willing to offer their property up for sale.

In the meantime, if you have to sell most of the area markets are in need of homes priced to sell. So give me a call and I'll help. If you are looking to buy, now is a good time to negotiate a great buy so again, give me a call.

Woburn's single family home sales market showed some early seasonal volume strength but has weakened in the past two months. With August sales numbers in, volume is low, but prices remained level in August. The graph below shows a line for the median price and bars for the numbers of homes sold.

In the Single Family market, there were 81 properties listed September 1. This represents a 22% decrease in inventory from the same time last year. Sales volume in August was again lower than last year with only 14 homes sold. Median sales prices weakened somewhat. It remains to be seen if the market can maintain strength as we move into fall. In August the average time on market dropped to 81 days. Currently we have less than a 6 month supply of property which indicates that the Woburn market remains in favor of those selling property. It should be noted that approximately 10% of the homes on the market are distressed properties so prices will experience some drag.

Waltham's single family home sales market  showed some seasonal volume strength but has weakened in the past month. With August sales numbers in, volume is slightly low, and prices remained level in August.  The graph below shows a line for the median price and bars for the numbers of homes sold.

In the Single Family market, there were 86 properties listed September 1. This represents a 9% decrease in inventory from the same time last year. The median sales price remained flat at $425,000. In August the time on market held at only 52 days, a positive indicator. The number of sales was 28. This is down slightly from July but 10% higher volume than last August. Currently we have only a 3 month supply of homes for sale which indicates that the Waltham market remains in favor of those selling property. With such a tight supply we should see price improvements in the Waltham market. It should be noted that approximately 8% of the homes on the market are distressed properties so prices will experience some drag.

Today the Boston Globe reported  a summary of the Warren Group's report on Massachusetts foreclosure activities.  ( http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2008/09/mass_foreclosur_13.html?s_campaign=8299 )

 They report that "Foreclosure activity has doubled so far this year" and that there have been 7,804 filings. They also report that filings experienced a sharp drop-off in May after a new law took effect requiring lenders to allow an additional 90 days for borrowers to repay loan defaults.

 What the article doesn't comment on is what will be happening now that the extra 90 day period is expiring from all of the filings that have been waiting since May. June, July, August ... here comes the September rush? We'll have to see if there is a renewed surge in filings.

 Locally we have been spared some of the worst of this. The Warren group report indicates that Worcester had 68 filings in July alone. In the 6 towns that I cover locally there have only been a total of 65 so far this year. Woburn has been the worst hit with 23 filings, Waltham and Burlington next with 15 each, then Arlington with 5, Lexington with 4 and Bedford with only 3. I say this, not to minimize the individual suffering involved in a foreclosure, simply to point out the relative strength of our local markets.

 For anyone finding themselves in a foreclosure situation the market strength in this area should allow then to execute a short sale and walk away from the foreclosure without too much long term damage to their credit. I note on my website that short sales are roughly 10 % of the listings in Woburn and 8% of the listings in Waltham so it is clear that this route is helping many avoid foreclosure.

 Given that the May 90 day extension is expiring it is clear that more people will find themselves in difficulty before this wave has exhausted itself.  If you find yourself in such a difficult position please do not hesitate to contact me and I will provide you with professional service and support.

Burlington's single family home sales market  showed some seasonal strength but has weakened in the past month or two. With August sales numbers in, volume is slightly low, and prices stumbled in August.  The graph below shows a line for the median price and bars for the numbers of homes sold.

In the Single Family market, there are only 59 properties listed for sale. This represents an 18% lower inventory than the same time last year. The median sales price dropped in August breaking the summer's upswing. The sales volume improved with 13 homes sold, but this was still down 38% from last year. The average time on market for properties to sell bumped up to160 days, but was skewed by one home taking more than 2 years.  Currently we have less than a 5 month supply of property which indicates that the Burlington market remains in favor of sellers.

 Bedford's single family home sales market  is having a strong summer, but may be running out of homes to sell. With August sales numbers in, the summer has been strong, volume is slightly low, but prices have been rising since the May low. The graph below shows a line for the median price and bars for the numbers of homes sold.

In the Single Family market, there were only 30 properties listed September 1.  This represents a 32% decrease in inventory from the same time last year. August sales volume continued the summer surge with 14 home sales. Along with the increased volume the sales prices increased slightly. The average time on market dropped to only 57 days. The summer's spike in volume has reduced the supply of property to only 2 months, keeping the Bedford market in favor of those selling property. At this time the market is supply limited and needs new inventory to maintain volume levels. Counter to the national trends the market is in need of sellers.

Lexington's single family home sales market continues to defy the national trends and is having a strong year. With August sales numbers in, the summer has been strong, volume is slightly low, but prices have been rising. The graph below shows a line for the median price and bars for the numbers of homes sold.

In the Single Family market, there were 118 houses listed for sale September 1. This is down 4% from the same time last year. The monthly median sales price data has continued to show strength all summer, and in August was 15% higher than last year. For the second month in a row the average sales price was greater than $1,000,000. Average time on market eased down to only 94 days. There were 43 homes sold in August, this is 6 more than August 2007. Currently the supply of homes for sale is still less than 3 months. This indicates that the Lexington market remains strongly in favor of those selling property. 2008 continues to look like a strong year for Lexington Real Estate.

I recently had the pleasure of meeting a couple from Colorado. They made the comment of it being difficult to get used to the "green tunnels" and that they found it disorienting. I asked what they meant by ‘green tunnels' and they explained that the tree lined streets all looked the same to them and that you couldn't get a clear look at the sky. Out west I guess things are different, but here in Lexington I see our ‘tunnels' as an asset and a wonderful selling point. Streets lined with mature trees help to keep things cool in the summertime and offer protection to the hundreds of squirrels and bird species. There is even a hawk nesting across the street in my neighbor's yard. The Lexington planning board has done a great job of setting up and preserving green areas for the town. Many are interconnected like the one I take my morning walks along.

 I live near the Old Res, a pond that is stocked with trout and bass in the springtime and set-up with a guarded swimming area for the kids all summer. They just closed the swimming area for the season last weekend since the High School and College age lifeguards are all going back to school now.

Around the Res is a footpath that many like me walk, typically with a dog or two, each morning. Just off that is a paved path that cuts another green tunnel through a wooded section to connect from Cary Ave. and Marrett road over to Bridge Elementary School. The path continues past Bridge, across Middleby and through some more woods with a link up to Baskin Road and then on down past the Lincoln soccer/lacrosse field complex.

It cuts through another small conservation area that features a side route on a boardwalk loop through a swampy area. Last year I saw a fox on the boardwalk. You then exit the woods out onto Worthen road. Once you hit Worthen you can go left up to the Hayden Rec. Ice Rink or cross over to the High School fields, track and the town pool / tennis court complex. Or go right and down to the High School campus itself. If you go straight and across past the baseball fields, football stadium and playground then you have only a short walk to be in downtown Lexington. It is a great walking path, a main traffic route to Bridge School and the High School, and many times I see families riding their bikes along the paved pathways. These pathways and conservation areas are scatter green tunnels all around Lexington and make it a wonderful place to walk in the summertime.

First a review of where we came from. For Arlington, Ma. the market volume peaked in 2006, and the prices peaked in 2005, at an annual median price of $503,000. Prices have shown approximately a 6% pullback since that time. The number of homes sold in 2006 was 314. In 2007, 290 homes sold so the volume has dropped 8%. So far in the first half of 2008 there have been 141 sales, so the market volume is low.

There is a seasonal volume effect on the Arlington market with Q1 (Jan, Feb, Mar)  and Q4 (Oct, Nov, Dec) being market lows. This seasonality should be taken into account when looking at any monthly data. 2008 Q1 volume was very low, but Q2 ( Apr, May, Jun) sales volume was good approaching the same periods in both of the previous years. It should be expected that prices will continue to be strong through the summer.

 There have been fewer homes on the market this year. With sellers holding homes off the market and thereby restricting the supply, it is seems unlikely that any drop in prices will occur. General economic forecasts seem to hold that 2008 will see the bottom for this cycle, further supporting this view. Real estate markets tend to a 7 year cycle, so with a peak in 2005 it can be expected that the bottom should be in 2008-2009.

 What this means for homeowners in the near term is that there is a high demand for homes and that while sale prices will be down from 2005 highs Arlington, Ma. continues to be a high value market, and homes can be sold quickly. Homeowners who purchased more than 4 or 5 years ago still have significant equity, those having purchased or re-financed recently unfortunately will likely not see price appreciation until 2009 and beyond.

Now for the summary of July results, and where we are today. In the Single Family market, there were 43 properties listed August 1.  This is down 27% from the same time last year. Sales volume in July was lower than last year with only 29 homes sold. Surprisingly median sales prices remained flat at around $470,000. In July the average time on market dropped to only 45 days. Currently we have only a 1.5 month supply of homes for sale which indicates that the Arlington, Ma. market remains heavily in favor of those selling property. Prices should strengthen as the market is supply limited and needs new inventory to remain at these volume levels.

 For anyone interested in seeing the graphs and numbers behind these comments please go to my website www.MikesREALSolutions.com and look in the community for which you are interested. The reports are available for download as a .pdf file. You can e-mail me at Mike@ MikesREALSolutions.com with any questions.