All Listings-The REO and Short-Sale segments below are NOT in addition to these numbers but are simply what COMPRISES or makes up, these base numbers!

Base Numbers:    #      DOM (Days on the market)              Median Home Price

Actives:                  1506 DOM: 121                                     $625,000 Median

CTS:                      1087  DOM: 116                                    $299,000

Pend:                    226    DOM: 103                                    $315,000

Sold:                     450    DOM: 101                                    $325,000

Sold'08:                 466    DOM:  93                                    $355,000  ONLY down 8.5% over last year! Good News Here! Compare this  to the historic 25-30% slips of the past few years!! Can you spell "Bottom"??But wait! If the REO market comes roaring back count on this number to falter and fall. That's IF the Asset Managers insist on "dumping" inventory.

REO:

Actives:                  126    DOM: 41                                     $281,200  Median

CTS:                      146    DOM: 45                                     $256,200

Pend:                     63     DOM: 44                                     $196,500

Sold:                      151    DOM: 55                                    $251,300  Down 18% over ‘08

08 Sold:                 202    DOM: 68                                     $305,450  Sales down 25% over ‘08

 Short-Sale:

Actives:                  162   DOM 95                                       $335,475  Median

CTS:                      658!!DOM 143                                      $275,000

Pend:                    71     DOM  166                                    $280,000

Sold:                     79     DOM: 177                                    $276,700

08 Sold:                49     DOM: 151                                     $340,000 down 19.5% from '08 

 Conclusions:  

•·         Sales for SS are UP 62% from '08 but are the lowest since March of '09 and down from the "historic" high of 107 in June.

•·         Days on the market for SS still BIG. A smidgen under 6 months!

•·         If you do short-sales only you'd better have it down! The high DOM time is most likely due to Realtor/Agents taking on "SS" that just won't ever close, no hardship, no insolvency, just a disgruntled homeowner and/or NOT KNOWING how to process the sale.

•·         Look at how high the Median is for ALL Active Listings: A whopping $625,000 reflective of the skinny inventory of the REO and Short-Sale markets!

•·         The proof though is in the Pendings AND Sales!

•·         Lack of REO inventory is causing much frustration amongst Buyers AND their Realtors! The competition is making Realtor/Agents bid way over the asking just to get looked at!

•·         The Asset Managers are getting hip to the "overbid" ploy and some Reo Agents are being told to have the big offers be prepared to either remove their "appraisal contingency" at offer acceptance or have their earnest money deposit be forfeited should they NOT get the appraisal!

•·         Short-Sales once again account for a staggering 60+% of ALL CTS!  But ONLY 17.5% of Sales!!

•·         Nothing to really "hang your hat on" as far as the amount of Shorts being completed.

All Listings-The REO and Short-Sale segments below are NOT in addition to these numbers but are simply what COMPRISES or makes up, these base numbers!

Base Numbers:    #      DOM (Days on the market)              Median Home Price

Actives:                  1506 DOM: 121                                                  $625,000 Median

CTS:                     1087  DOM: 116                                                  $299,000

Pend:                    226    DOM: 103                                                  $315,000

Sold:                      450    DOM: 101                                                 $325,000

Sold'08:                  466    DOM:  93                                                  $355,000 

ONLY down 8.5% over last year! Good News Here! Compare this  to the historic 25-30% slips of the past few years!! Can you spell "Bottom"??But wait! If the REO market comes roaring back count on this number to falter and fall. That's IF the Asset Managers insist on "dumping" inventory.

REO:

Actives:                  126    DOM: 41                                                   $281,200  Median

CTS:                      146    DOM: 45                                                   $256,200

Pend:                    63     DOM: 44                                                    $196,500

Sold:                     151    DOM: 55                                                   $251,300  Down 18% over ‘08

08 Sold:                202    DOM: 68                                                   $305,450  Sales down 25% over ‘08

Short-Sale:

Actives:                 162   DOM 95                                                      $335,475  Median

CTS:                     658!!DOM 143                                                   $275,000

Pend:                    71     DOM  166                                                $280,000

Sold:                     79     DOM: 177                                                $276,700

08 Sold:                49     DOM: 151                                                 $340,000 down 19.5% from '08  

Conclusions:

•·         Sales for SS are UP 62% from '08 but are the lowest since March of '09 and down from the "historic" high of 107 in June.

•·         Days on the market for SS still BIG. A smidgen under 6 months!

•·         If you do short-sales only you'd better have it down! The high DOM time is most likely due to Realtor/Agents taking on "SS" that just won't ever close, no hardship, no insolvency, just a disgruntled homeowner and/or NOT KNOWING how to process the sale.

•·         Look at how high the Median is for ALL Active Listings: A whopping $625,000 reflective of the skinny inventory of the REO and Short-Sale markets!

•·         The proof though is in the Pendings AND Sales!

•·         Lack of REO inventory is causing much frustration amongst Buyers AND their Realtors! The competition is making Realtor/Agents bid way over the asking just to get looked at!

•·         The Asset Managers are getting hip to the "overbid" ploy and some Reo Agents are being told to have the big offers be prepared to either remove their "appraisal contingency" at offer acceptance or have their earnest money deposit be forfeited should they NOT get the appraisal!

•·         Short-Sales once again account for a staggering 60+% of ALL CTS!  But ONLY 17.5% of Sales!!

•·         Nothing to really "hang your hat on" as far as the amount of Shorts being completed.

Sales Data-July 2009 Sonoma County

 2009 July Sales:

ALL CATEGORIES (Single family,condos,Farms and Ranches ONLY) :

Active listings-1574

Continue to show or just in escrow:-1058

Pending-firmed up escrows: 227

Sold: 500   Up 6.5% over last year at this time-not spectacular by any means!

However, Median Price down ONLY 11.25%!!

REO(Real Estate Owned-bank foreclosed properties):

A-131 (only 8% of ALL current listings!)

CTS-153 (14.5% of all )

Pending: 78 (34% of all)

Solds: 147 (29% of all sales)

Short Sales -Those selling below current loans secured on their house:

A-186 (12% of all Actives)

CTS-645 (61% of CTS!! A BIG number!)

Pending 67 (29.5%)

Sold: 86 (17% of all sales Short-Sales: Up 42% over last year but DOWN 14% from previous month!)

Total foreclosure market is 46% of SOLDS or 233 of marketplace

REO's-sales down 32% over last year!

  HOWEVER!! VACANT HOMES:

A-545   Median $440,00  DOM 102

CTS-416  Median $279,000

Pending-119

Sold-303  $310,  85DOM     60% of all the sold listings are VACANT!!

  So what do these numbers tell us?

I taught my training class today at Keller Williams here in Santa Rosa, Sonoma County, "The Wine Country"! Now I think we can do a play on words here because I keep hearing Realtors/Agent complaining about the lack of inventory, lack of REO's and now having to "Sell" the dreaded "Short-Sale". Yes, this is truly becoming the "Whine Country"!!

  Our local newspaper, the Press Democrat, made a nice headline with "Sales are slipping" as our "closed sales" are down and we should be hitting 500+ units but just eecked out about 480 in June. Now here's the reason our "Sales" are down. The hottest price point is the sub $400,000 price point. This is why our median price still hovers around the $305,000- $315,000 range. We are selling half above and half below this price point. Now the bulk of those sales have been the foreclosed home market or REO (Real Estate Owned) bank owned properties. However, with the moratorium and more informal agreements with Uncle Sam, we've seen this popular listing waning in our "Whine Country". Hence Realtors/Agents are taking the pent-up demand and selling "Short-Sales".

  The scoop on Short-Sales is this; we have 1050 Continue to Show sales now in escrow. This is the less firm escrow where inspections, loan approval, etc have yet to be done and more importantly, with the Short-Sale, we've YET to get LENDER APPROVAL!! What happens is the average time on the market for Short-Sales is 180 days and we have over 665 of those 1050 Continue to Shows being "Short-Sales" escrows. They go in and take forever to close. Hence our "Closed Sales" are being delayed as the time gets stretched further out into the future. For the first time since we've tracked "Short-Sales" we broke the 100 closed sales mark for this type of transaction. The "Short-Sale" has been tracking upward very slowly. And it shows the learning curve, though still tough for many an agent, is starting to yield some decent numbers. We are NOT closing THAT many more REO's! Perhaps 165 for the month of June.

  If you add the two we've got about a 45% share of ALL sales still being the foreclosed market segment. Now with this lack of inventory comes "overbidding" and then the subsequent appraisal issues. We no longer have "Willing Buyer/Willing Seller"! An overbid of $50,000 in our county is being shot down by an appraiser from Gilroy who has gotten his "assignment" from the HVCC to perform the appraisal. This is creating major headaches for one and all. So now you've got to sell your house not only to the Buyer but the underwriter, appraiser and most likely a "final review" guy!! Daunting to say the least.

Ten Pretty Good Rules

These are courtesy of a great attorney,now since retired,C.Ingrid Larsen,Esq who was a superb Landlord Rights advocate while still having empathy for the tenant. Smart Gal--now retired in a sleepy village in Northern California. Thanks Ingrid. Your legacy lives (and that of your father!).

1. Never argue with an idiot; people watching may not be able to tell the difference!--Oh how true is this! With a market place generating a ton of offers and no acceptance, we can sometimes get frustrated with a buyer who just insists on offering 10% below the list price even though there are mulitple offers, 50 cards on the kitchen counter and 1 day on the market!! Sometimes we need to let folks go who just don't get it!

 2. Observe everything; admire nothing--Do you know in mideastern culture if you openly admit to admiring a lovely piece of art or striking painting that the host is obligated to give it to you as a gift! But guess what--you in turn must do the same and give a gift of "like-kind"!! Careful!

 3. It's easier to get forgiveness than permission--I've been known to push this one!

4. Rarely resist the opportunity to keep your mouth shut---He who talks first looses! Or god gave us two ears and one mouth--do you GET the ratio!

 5. Don't ask the question if you can't live with the answer! or as Zig Ziglar says, "Don't be the answer to their prayers until you KNOW what they are praying for!!

 6. If you want a new idea, read an old book--some of the greatest literature is based on the bible. Imitate a writing style which keeps simplicity as its goal. Hemmingway was legendary at this. Mental gymnastics-TS Elliot!

 7. If you don't know where you're going, any road will get you there.--or as Yogi Berra once quipped, "When you come to a fork in the road--take it!" or Frost's comments:  "The woods are lovely, dark, and deep, But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep."

 8. Never have a philosophy which supports a lack of courage-and if you don't think it takes courage to get through this market then you need a check up from the neck up!

9. Never look back unless you intend to go that way--Forward thinking is good as we are NOT going to see the old market again for many, many years! The new reality is upon us--embrace it or face oblivion!

10. Never wrestle with a pig; you both get dirty and the pig likes it!--Yes, we've all had that client and I learned many, many years ago to avoid them at all costs. Leave this planet with your reputation intact please! You leave behind your legacy. What will yours be?

The California Association of Realtors has found their First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index stood at 69% in the first quarter of 2009!! With a median price of an entry level home at $213,040 the average payment would be $1,270/month! You would need an annual income of $38,090 to afford this home.

  Consider the 2nd quarter of 2007 when the affordability factor was at 26%! Median House price for entry level was $503,000, Monthly payment of $3,193.00/month with an annual income of $95,803!!

We've come a long way in pricing and are allowing SO MANY more buyers into the marketplace!! Here in Lovely Sonoma County we have 63% affordability for first timer homebuyers with median rice of $275,000 (you can get homes for a LOT LESS! We just sold a condo for $72,000!) With payments of $1,640 and an income of $49,260!! Big news. Now's the time to take advantage of decreased pricing, low interest rates and motivated Sellers!

Many lament the FHA loans we are making now predicting another wave of foreclosures in the near future. Let's remember this vital point--The monthly payment is almost 63% LESS than at the market peak!! This is much more SUSTAINABLE! Now if we can just get some inventory!

The June sales data shows the amount of  REO's listing WAY DOWN! Here in Sonoma County the REO market represents just 9% of ALL ACTIVE listings BUT 35% of ALL SALES!! The Short-Sale market is markedly UP from 80 sales last month to 98--a historic high for OUR County, accounting for 21% of all sales in June. Still not much to hang your hat on but certainly being done! Oddly enough Short-Sales make up a whopping 42% of all of our 1059 Continue to Show listings!  If you add the two numbers you see our market is still dominated by the "pre-forclosure" and "Foreclosure" markets with 56% of All sales being either REO or Short-Sales.

On the horizon-- the Alt "A" and "Option ARM" reset nightmare!! Is this just the beginning? Will Short-Sales begin to dominate the marketplace replacing the REO as THE hot-property as the banks hold onto their foreclosure inventory? Time will tell!

Dedicated to the Families seeking help and aid with their home as they face financial difficulties with mortgage payments and this daunting economy. We will strive to provide data and information which will give you ideas and information in making the BEST decision for you and your family. 

  As a CDPE,Certified Disressed Property Expert,  we have training and resources aimed specificially to the Homeowner facing default and eventual foreclosure on their home or investment property. We listen, we help. We DONOT guarntee miracles, we are NOT Loan Modifiers and DONOT take upfront fees. Our Mission Statement is as follows:

MISSION STATEMENT and PERSONAL PHILOSOPHY

"We believe we operate like other quality professionals who serve your accounting, medical, and legal needs. We treat each transaction as another important event in our continuing relationships.  You will recognize this as a "Client-Centered" concept which by itself is not unique, yet its application to real estate is certainly rare.  As individuals and responsible members of the community, we share a unique vision of how we can contribute expertise to the positive benefit of our select group of clients.  We assist our clients by providing today's vital information for tomorrow's decisions."

"...One of Sonoma County's natural resources"

Look at the above chart!! Absolutely amazing but WHERE are the REOs?

The Santa Rosa Chapter of Realtors Presents:

Strategies and Questions On Short-Sales--All*Star Panel

When: Tuesday July 7^th 8:30am to 10:00am--This is taking the place of our regularly held Marketing Breakfast Meeting, however, will we DO Broker's Open Houses!  

Cost: $7.00 An unbelievable Deal!!

Where:Jockey Club,1350 Bennett Valley Road (ne corner of the big Fair Grounds parking lot across from the East entrance)corner of Bennett Valley road and Cooper Road

What: Short-Sale panel to discuss the process of successful short-sales, lender requirements, underwriting Title Issues and to answer many questions by all concerned Realtor/Agents

Why:The Mortage Bankers Association, tracking 45,000,000 loans found almost 4,000,000 either IN forclosure or now technically in default. With these numbers there is NO WAY the lenders are going to foreclose on ALL of these so the Short-Sale will be coming into it's own. Find out how you can professionally and with a high standard of practice, represent the Short-Sale seller. They need are help but you must know how to work them RIGHT! Come join us!

 Panelists: 

• • • Jeremy Olsan,NorBAR Chief Counsel-Legal Pitfalls of Short-Sales-what to avoid.
    • Brian Hurley,VP Stewart Title-underwriting guidelines, issues with lender requirements on Short-Sales
    • Sam Bedros Short Sale Manager, Wachovia Mortgage, FSB
       Sonoma County representative-What Wachovia see for the future of short-sales and how they are working through them-working with the lender in the deal
    • Three Realtors now working with Short-Sales successfully:
    • Brenda Alarcon-CPS Properties
    • Juan Barretto-RE/MAX Central Santa Rosa
    • Shaun Hermosillo-Keller Williams Realty

Should be a great panel with many, many questions answered on processing a Short-Sale.

I've posted the link to my latest "Spring Market Update" below.

>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyEvOT5K7No