Sonoma County Real Estate

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." ~Aaron Levenstein Home Sales August 2009 Sonoma County!

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 09:24:58 -0500

All Listings-The REO and Short-Sale segments below are NOT in addition to these numbers but are simply what COMPRISES or makes up, these base numbers!

Base Numbers: # DOM (Days on the market) Median Home Price

Actives: 1506 DOM: 121 $625,000 Median

CTS: 1087 DOM: 116 $299,000

Pend: 226 DOM: 103 $315,000

Sold: 450 DOM: 101 $325,000

Sold'08: 466 DOM: 93 $355,000 ONLY down 8.5% over last year! Good News Here! Compare this to the historic 25-30% slips of the past few years!! Can you spell "Bottom"??But wait! If the REO market comes roaring back count on this number to falter and fall. That's IF the Asset Managers insist on "dumping" inventory.

REO:

Actives: 126 DOM: 41 $281,200 Median

CTS: 146 DOM: 45 $256,200

Pend: 63 DOM: 44 $196,500

Sold: 151 DOM: 55 $251,300 Down 18% over ‘08

08 Sold: 202 DOM: 68 $305,450 Sales down 25% over ‘08

Short-Sale:

Actives: 162 DOM 95 $335,475 Median

CTS: 658!!DOM 143 $275,000

Pend: 71 DOM 166 $280,000

Sold: 79 DOM: 177 $276,700

08 Sold: 49 DOM: 151 $340,000 down 19.5% from '08

Conclusions:

•·         Sales for SS are UP 62% from '08 but are the lowest since March of '09 and down from the "historic" high of 107 in June.

•·         Days on the market for SS still BIG. A smidgen under 6 months!

•·         If you do short-sales only you'd better have it down! The high DOM time is most likely due to Realtor/Agents taking on "SS" that just won't ever close, no hardship, no insolvency, just a disgruntled homeowner and/or NOT KNOWING how to process the sale.

•·         Look at how high the Median is for ALL Active Listings: A whopping $625,000 reflective of the skinny inventory of the REO and Short-Sale markets!

•·         The proof though is in the Pendings AND Sales!

•·         Lack of REO inventory is causing much frustration amongst Buyers AND their Realtors! The competition is making Realtor/Agents bid way over the asking just to get looked at!

•·         The Asset Managers are getting hip to the "overbid" ploy and some Reo Agents are being told to have the big offers be prepared to either remove their "appraisal contingency" at offer acceptance or have their earnest money deposit be forfeited should they NOT get the appraisal!

•·         Short-Sales once again account for a staggering 60+% of ALL CTS! But ONLY 17.5% of Sales!!

•·         Nothing to really "hang your hat on" as far as the amount of Shorts being completed.

Median Price drop is slowing! Sketcy Inventory! Fierce Competition sub$500K frustrates our Buyers for Sonoma County!

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 21:49:28 -0500

All Listings-The REO and Short-Sale segments below are NOT in addition to these numbers but are simply what COMPRISES or makes up, these base numbers!

Base Numbers: # DOM (Days on the market) Median Home Price

Actives: 1506 DOM: 121 $625,000 Median

CTS: 1087 DOM: 116 $299,000

Pend: 226 DOM: 103 $315,000

Sold: 450 DOM: 101 $325,000

Sold'08: 466 DOM: 93 $355,000

ONLY down 8.5% over last year! Good News Here! Compare this to the historic 25-30% slips of the past few years!! Can you spell "Bottom"??But wait! If the REO market comes roaring back count on this number to falter and fall. That's IF the Asset Managers insist on "dumping" inventory.

REO:

Actives: 126 DOM: 41 $281,200 Median

CTS: 146 DOM: 45 $256,200

Pend: 63 DOM: 44 $196,500

Sold: 151 DOM: 55 $251,300 Down 18% over ‘08

08 Sold: 202 DOM: 68 $305,450 Sales down 25% over ‘08

Short-Sale:

Actives: 162 DOM 95 $335,475 Median

CTS: 658!!DOM 143 $275,000

Pend: 71 DOM 166 $280,000

Sold: 79 DOM: 177 $276,700

08 Sold: 49 DOM: 151 $340,000 down 19.5% from '08

Conclusions:

•·         Sales for SS are UP 62% from '08 but are the lowest since March of '09 and down from the "historic" high of 107 in June.

•·         Days on the market for SS still BIG. A smidgen under 6 months!

•·         If you do short-sales only you'd better have it down! The high DOM time is most likely due to Realtor/Agents taking on "SS" that just won't ever close, no hardship, no insolvency, just a disgruntled homeowner and/or NOT KNOWING how to process the sale.

•·         Look at how high the Median is for ALL Active Listings: A whopping $625,000 reflective of the skinny inventory of the REO and Short-Sale markets!

•·         The proof though is in the Pendings AND Sales!

•·         Lack of REO inventory is causing much frustration amongst Buyers AND their Realtors! The competition is making Realtor/Agents bid way over the asking just to get looked at!

•·         The Asset Managers are getting hip to the "overbid" ploy and some Reo Agents are being told to have the big offers be prepared to either remove their "appraisal contingency" at offer acceptance or have their earnest money deposit be forfeited should they NOT get the appraisal!

•·         Short-Sales once again account for a staggering 60+% of ALL CTS! But ONLY 17.5% of Sales!!

•·         Nothing to really "hang your hat on" as far as the amount of Shorts being completed.

Sonoma County "Wine Country" Sales Data for July! Median down ONLY 11%! Yeah!?!?

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 11:50:16 -0500

Sales Data-July 2009 Sonoma County

2009 July Sales:

ALL CATEGORIES (Single family,condos,Farms and Ranches ONLY) :

Active listings-1574

Continue to show or just in escrow:-1058

Pending-firmed up escrows: 227

Sold: 500 Up 6.5% over last year at this time-not spectacular by any means!

However, Median Price down ONLY 11.25%!!

REO(Real Estate Owned-bank foreclosed properties):

A-131 (only 8% of ALL current listings!)

CTS-153 (14.5% of all )

Pending: 78 (34% of all)

Solds: 147 (29% of all sales)

Short Sales -Those selling below current loans secured on their house:

A-186 (12% of all Actives)

CTS-645 (61% of CTS!! A BIG number!)

Pending 67 (29.5%)

Sold: 86 (17% of all sales Short-Sales: Up 42% over last year but DOWN 14% from previous month!)

Total foreclosure market is 46% of SOLDS or 233 of marketplace

REO's-sales down 32% over last year!

HOWEVER!! VACANT HOMES:

A-545 Median $440,00 DOM 102

CTS-416 Median $279,000

Pending-119

Sold-303 $310, 85DOM 60% of all the sold listings are VACANT!!

So what do these numbers tell us?

Our Median Price overall is down ONLY 11.25%!!

REO Median sales price- DOWN 20% dispels the therory of price creep in the REO market?

Short-Sales: Median DOWN 25% over last year!! Still not much to hang your hat on!

So what in the Wide,Wide,Wide world of sports is a goin' on around here?

Banks are NOT releasing many REO's as they did in the past two years

Short-Sales-banks are NOT increasing approvals in any significant numbers

Modifications? We're NOT hearing any great news on that front also

Appraisals-getting harder and harder to do

Underwriting-very restrictive

Now let me ask you a question? WHO is controlling the market?

Sales are DOWN in Sonoma County--Wine Country or "Whine Country"??

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 00:39:51 -0500

I taught my training class today at Keller Williams here in Santa Rosa, Sonoma County, "The Wine Country"! Now I think we can do a play on words here because I keep hearing Realtors/Agent complaining about the lack of inventory, lack of REO's and now having to "Sell" the dreaded "Short-Sale". Yes, this is truly becoming the "Whine Country"!!

Our local newspaper, the Press Democrat, made a nice headline with "Sales are slipping" as our "closed sales" are down and we should be hitting 500+ units but just eecked out about 480 in June. Now here's the reason our "Sales" are down. The hottest price point is the sub $400,000 price point. This is why our median price still hovers around the $305,000- $315,000 range. We are selling half above and half below this price point. Now the bulk of those sales have been the foreclosed home market or REO (Real Estate Owned) bank owned properties. However, with the moratorium and more informal agreements with Uncle Sam, we've seen this popular listing waning in our "Whine Country". Hence Realtors/Agents are taking the pent-up demand and selling "Short-Sales".

The scoop on Short-Sales is this; we have 1050 Continue to Show sales now in escrow. This is the less firm escrow where inspections, loan approval, etc have yet to be done and more importantly, with the Short-Sale, we've YET to get LENDER APPROVAL!! What happens is the average time on the market for Short-Sales is 180 days and we have over 665 of those 1050 Continue to Shows being "Short-Sales" escrows. They go in and take forever to close. Hence our "Closed Sales" are being delayed as the time gets stretched further out into the future. For the first time since we've tracked "Short-Sales" we broke the 100 closed sales mark for this type of transaction. The "Short-Sale" has been tracking upward very slowly. And it shows the learning curve, though still tough for many an agent, is starting to yield some decent numbers. We are NOT closing THAT many more REO's! Perhaps 165 for the month of June.

If you add the two we've got about a 45% share of ALL sales still being the foreclosed market segment. Now with this lack of inventory comes "overbidding" and then the subsequent appraisal issues. We no longer have "Willing Buyer/Willing Seller"! An overbid of $50,000 in our county is being shot down by an appraiser from Gilroy who has gotten his "assignment" from the HVCC to perform the appraisal. This is creating major headaches for one and all. So now you've got to sell your house not only to the Buyer but the underwriter, appraiser and most likely a "final review" guy!! Daunting to say the least.

10 Pretty Good Rules! Now more important than ever!!

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 23:06:08 -0500

Ten Pretty Good Rules

These are courtesy of a great attorney,now since retired,C.Ingrid Larsen,Esq who was a superb Landlord Rights advocate while still having empathy for the tenant. Smart Gal--now retired in a sleepy village in Northern California. Thanks Ingrid. Your legacy lives (and that of your father!).

1. Never argue with an idiot; people watching may not be able to tell the difference!--Oh how true is this! With a market place generating a ton of offers and no acceptance, we can sometimes get frustrated with a buyer who just insists on offering 10% below the list price even though there are mulitple offers, 50 cards on the kitchen counter and 1 day on the market!! Sometimes we need to let folks go who just don't get it!

2. Observe everything; admire nothing--Do you know in mideastern culture if you openly admit to admiring a lovely piece of art or striking painting that the host is obligated to give it to you as a gift! But guess what--you in turn must do the same and give a gift of "like-kind"!! Careful!

3. It's easier to get forgiveness than permission--I've been known to push this one!

4. Rarely resist the opportunity to keep your mouth shut---He who talks first looses! Or god gave us two ears and one mouth--do you GET the ratio!

5. Don't ask the question if you can't live with the answer! or as Zig Ziglar says, "Don't be the answer to their prayers until you KNOW what they are praying for!!

6. If you want a new idea, read an old book--some of the greatest literature is based on the bible. Imitate a writing style which keeps simplicity as its goal. Hemmingway was legendary at this. Mental gymnastics-TS Elliot!

7. If you don't know where you're going, any road will get you there.--or as Yogi Berra once quipped, "When you come to a fork in the road--take it!" or Frost's comments: "The woods are lovely, dark, and deep, But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep."

8. Never have a philosophy which supports a lack of courage-and if you don't think it takes courage to get through this market then you need a check up from the neck up!

9. Never look back unless you intend to go that way--Forward thinking is good as we are NOT going to see the old market again for many, many years! The new reality is upon us--embrace it or face oblivion!

10. Never wrestle with a pig; you both get dirty and the pig likes it!--Yes, we've all had that client and I learned many, many years ago to avoid them at all costs. Leave this planet with your reputation intact please! You leave behind your legacy. What will yours be?

First Time Home Buyer Index in California goes through the roof! But how long will it last?

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 23:07:38 -0500

The California Association of Realtors has found their First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index stood at 69% in the first quarter of 2009!! With a median price of an entry level home at $213,040 the average payment would be $1,270/month! You would need an annual income of $38,090 to afford this home.

Consider the 2nd quarter of 2007 when the affordability factor was at 26%! Median House price for entry level was $503,000, Monthly payment of $3,193.00/month with an annual income of $95,803!!

We've come a long way in pricing and are allowing SO MANY more buyers into the marketplace!! Here in Lovely Sonoma County we have 63% affordability for first timer homebuyers with median rice of $275,000 (you can get homes for a LOT LESS! We just sold a condo for $72,000!) With payments of $1,640 and an income of $49,260!! Big news. Now's the time to take advantage of decreased pricing, low interest rates and motivated Sellers!

Many lament the FHA loans we are making now predicting another wave of foreclosures in the near future. Let's remember this vital point--The monthly payment is almost 63% LESS than at the market peak!! This is much more SUSTAINABLE! Now if we can just get some inventory!

The June sales data shows the amount of REO's listing WAY DOWN! Here in Sonoma County the REO market represents just 9% of ALL ACTIVE listings BUT 35% of ALL SALES!! The Short-Sale market is markedly UP from 80 sales last month to 98--a historic high for OUR County, accounting for 21% of all sales in June. Still not much to hang your hat on but certainly being done! Oddly enough Short-Sales make up a whopping 42% of all of our 1059 Continue to Show listings! If you add the two numbers you see our market is still dominated by the "pre-forclosure" and "Foreclosure" markets with 56% of All sales being either REO or Short-Sales.

On the horizon-- the Alt "A" and "Option ARM" reset nightmare!! Is this just the beginning? Will Short-Sales begin to dominate the marketplace replacing the REO as THE hot-property as the banks hold onto their foreclosure inventory? Time will tell!

Distressed Homes of Sonoma County

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:08:38 -0500

Dedicated to the Families seeking help and aid with their home as they face financial difficulties with mortgage payments and this daunting economy. We will strive to provide data and information which will give you ideas and information in making the BEST decision for you and your family.

As a CDPE,Certified Disressed Property Expert, we have training and resources aimed specificially to the Homeowner facing default and eventual foreclosure on their home or investment property. We listen, we help. We DONOT guarntee miracles, we are NOT Loan Modifiers and DONOT take upfront fees. Our Mission Statement is as follows:

MISSION STATEMENT and PERSONAL PHILOSOPHY

"We believe we operate like other quality professionals who serve your accounting, medical, and legal needs. We treat each transaction as another important event in our continuing relationships. You will recognize this as a "Client-Centered" concept which by itself is not unique, yet its application to real estate is certainly rare. As individuals and responsible members of the community, we share a unique vision of how we can contribute expertise to the positive benefit of our select group of clients. We assist our clients by providing today's vital information for tomorrow's decisions."

"...One of Sonoma County's natural resources"

Shadow Inventory from MDA Data Quick and SF Chronicle

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 22:43:50 -0500

Look at the above chart!! Absolutely amazing but WHERE are the REOs?

July 7th--The NEXT "Market of the Moment" Profiting from Short-Sales-Local Panel!

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 19:22:23 -0500

The Santa Rosa Chapter of Realtors Presents:

Strategies and Questions On Short-Sales--All*Star Panel

When: Tuesday July 7^th 8:30am to 10:00am--This is taking the place of our regularly held Marketing Breakfast Meeting, however, will we DO Broker's Open Houses!

Cost: $7.00 An unbelievable Deal!!

Where:Jockey Club,1350 Bennett Valley Road (ne corner of the big Fair Grounds parking lot across from the East entrance)corner of Bennett Valley road and Cooper Road

What: Short-Sale panel to discuss the process of successful short-sales, lender requirements, underwriting Title Issues and to answer many questions by all concerned Realtor/Agents

Why:The Mortage Bankers Association, tracking 45,000,000 loans found almost 4,000,000 either IN forclosure or now technically in default. With these numbers there is NO WAY the lenders are going to foreclose on ALL of these so the Short-Sale will be coming into it's own. Find out how you can professionally and with a high standard of practice, represent the Short-Sale seller. They need are help but you must know how to work them RIGHT! Come join us!

Panelists:

- - Jeremy Olsan,NorBAR Chief Counsel-Legal Pitfalls of Short-Sales-what to avoid.
  - Brian Hurley,VP Stewart Title-underwriting guidelines, issues with lender requirements on Short-Sales
  - Sam Bedros Short Sale Manager, Wachovia Mortgage, FSB
    Sonoma County representative-What Wachovia see for the future of short-sales and how they are working through them-working with the lender in the deal
  - Three Realtors now working with Short-Sales successfully:
  - Brenda Alarcon-CPS Properties
  - Juan Barretto-RE/MAX Central Santa Rosa
  - Shaun Hermosillo-Keller Williams Realty

Should be a great panel with many, many questions answered on processing a Short-Sale.

Sonoma County, California Marketing Update for the Spring Buying Season!

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Wed, 27 May 2009 23:19:44 -0500

I've posted the link to my latest "Spring Market Update" below.

>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyEvOT5K7No

The Economy is so bad.., You add the rest! But here are 11 to "prime the pump!"

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Mon, 25 May 2009 22:00:26 -0500

The economy is so bad--

1. I went to buy a toaster oven and they gave me a bank.
2. I got a pre-declined credit card in the mail.
3. CEO's are now playing miniature golf.
4. Hot Wheels and Matchbox cars are now trading higher than GM.
5. Obama met with small businesses - GE, Pfizer, Chrysler, Citigroup and GM, to discuss the Stimulus Package.
6. McDonalds is selling the 1/4 ouncer.
7. People in Beverly Hills fired their nannies and learned their children's names.
8. The most highly-paid job is now jury duty.
9. Motel Six won't leave the lights on.
10. The Mafia is laying off judges.
11. If the bank returns your check marked "insufficient funds," you have to call them and ask if they meant you or them.

Sonoma County Home Buyer and Seller Seminar! May2nd! Saturday! Register NOW!

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 21:29:45 -0500

We've put together an All*Star group of advisors ready to assist you in realizing your goal of purchasing a home in this Historic Buyers market!! We have two CPA's, An attorney and a lender who will qualify you right on the spot to buy the home you have desired! Here's a breakdown of our schedule:

Where: The Finley Center on College Avenue (just before Marlow on the left hand side!)--Everett Pearson Theater PRE-REGISTRATION A MUST!!

When: May 2nd, This Saturday, 9:00am to Noon

What: Home Buyer AND Seller Seminar--you will discover:

Best way to write an REO/Foreclosure property offer!
Is this a Buyers or Seller's Market?
Exploring and Understanding the Tax Credits: $8,000 for the Federal, $10,000 for the State on New Construction--Explained by TWO CPA's of the firm of Pisenti Brinker! Plus Tax Deferred Exchanges, Rent vs. own! In terms you can UNDERSTAND!
Prospect Mortage--Mr. Pete Phillippe will qualify you on the spot and explain the pitfalls of loans in today's supercharged financial world with super low interest rates!
Janne O'Neil--Wills andTrusts--How to take title when buying a home. Boyfriend, Girlfriend buying? Non-Traditional relationships and how to protect all parties will be thoroughly explained!!
Two Realtors (Allison Norman and Shaun Vice) will explain to you HOW to get through the maze of writing an offer when you have Multiple offer situations, Bank Owned properties, REO agents and finicky Lenders!! Learn from two agents who are doing this day-in and day-out and very successfully!!

To Register for the Seminar you must either go online to our Registration site: http://www.HomeBuyerSellerSeminar.com or call our toll free number: 888-207-7241 and Enter Ext: 3006

Here's a You-Tube annoucement which I recorded explaining more details. Hope to see yo all there!! Brign a guest and recieve a free "Starbucks" card!! Please let us know at the time of registration!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_lfYx_HpQY

Rental Scams and Listings Hijacked on Craigs List

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 23:48:34 -0500

Ive had the recent displeasure of having a listing "hijacked" while posted on Craigs list. The listing, taken over by a mortgage broker, which means they "bounced" me off craigslist to do it, was then copied and re-posted under their mortgage company. Flattering but since it was a Countrywide REO NOT good for MY public relations with Countrywide!! Worse yet is the following scenario:

REO agent, one who has many, many listings in this vein, had a call from 5 really ticked off "accidental" tenants! One of his out of the way REO listings had been hijacked off of Craigs List and re-posted as a "rental" at a deep, dark discounted rental rate! It needed to be rented out THIS WEEKEND!! as the landlord was leaving for an extended trip overseas (to Nigeria no doubt!!) and needed to rent it this weekend, hence the cheap rent!

He then met these 4 NEW tenants, took first, last, security deposits from each, and said meet me back here on the following Monday at noon to move in! He also needed either cashiers checks or cash as he had not settled in with a new bank in his future destination! Yup! So come Monday this agent gets calls, his sign NOW being put back up, from these irrate tenants all who showed up on the same day, same time, same bat channel!! (that's a reference to an ancient camp TV comedy of the sixites for you genx/y's!--have your parents explain it to you!). Suffice it to say NO ONE went away happy with one guy REFUSING TO LEAVE!! Got pretty ugly!!

Any other dark frauds out their in internet land one feels they would like to share with fellow AR's!!??

REO Listing Agents time has come! Dictators No More??

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 00:18:47 -0600

Last year I had the good fortune to work with one of the larger banks in the sale of their REO (real estate owned) or foreclosed upon properties. I attribute this to my attitude of always being helpful to everyone in our industry and to always being kind and considerate to all professionals who make up the galaxy of the great real estate community universe. A lender I had worked with for many years managed to get me an application and I became approved to represent this particular bank. I had a very good 2008.

We have also had Realtor/Agents who also represented banks in the liquidation of their assets. Many of these folks can be amazingly rude, arrogant, and not respectful of our time and energies; seeming to have forgotten what it takes to nurture a buying couple to the escrow table! But what's been particularly galling is the amazing "procedures" a Realtor/Agent must follow to get their offer presented. These "hoops" have been many and varied with the caveat--"Don't call me--I'll call you" attitude.

Well this seems to becoming to an end as more and more brokers have grown weary of these Realtor/Agent generated "procedures" enough to many an attorney involved in the process. Hence this decree, "If the client/bank has a specific "procedure" it must be in writing to the Realtor/Agent to be valid". We have many who have whole treatise on how to present your offer! These tomes make the buyer's agent follow many a step to present their offers. They have "codes", explicit instructions, warnings ("No FHA!) and other very specific criteria for getting the offer presented with the exclamation, "Failure to do so will result in the offer not being presented!"

Brokers have been getting an earful from their Realtor/Agents for a couple of years now about these REO Kings! In our marketplace REO's are a red-hot "Seller's" market. Just over a 30 day supply of product. They dominate the sales in certain areas and price points of our county. So now the attorneys are saying we don't have to take this anymore!! But here's the problem-are YOU going to be the guy or gal who goes up against the REO listing agent demanding a different set of rules for you? Do you really think by stating, "our attorney says you can't do this!" is going to endear you to the REO listing agent and get your clients the house? Want to risk one of your precious paychecks for principles?!! The great question of the minute here on Activerain? Your thoughts?

Where's the "Move-Up" market gone too in California?

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 11:34:01 -0600

Our market in certain price points is a very hot "Seller's" market. If you are a bank/REO seller, we have a 1.5 months supply of homes available on the market. Overall, our supply is around 4 months. CAR states 6 months supply is a "balanced" market. However, Short-Sales? Over 7 months supply, 190 days on the market for solds! Now here's the conundrum of this "hot" market where our sales in December BEAT our July sales numbers!

Our sales in the REO/Short-Sales/New Home product categories, all Sellers who will NOT BUY UP, equate to 73% of ALL SALES!! And this market is 85% sub $500,000. Has there EVER been numbers like this before? And what does this portend for overall market stability? At first blush, the mid/upper end looses the "food chain" effect as 3 out of 4 Sellers are NOT going to be buying! How can we reverse this? But if our sales are predominantly in these market segments, what will it take to get regular home sellers to start pricing right to sell?

It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma!!

REO tips for you Buyers AND Realtor/Agents out there!

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 21:17:30 -0600

I find many a Realtor/Agent, after they've done their due diligence or contingencies for physical inspections, will come back with this long list of items and a huge dollar amount for a total. Now many an REO NEED a ton of work!! However, the Lender is NOT selling you a new home! Some Realtor/Agents come back insisting on new roofs, remodeled kitchens, bathrooms, residing, new flooring, windows,appliances, the whole enchilada!!

I suspect many do this as a strategy as many a Realtor/Agent who lists REO properties do not convey the "bad" news to the lender in fear of loosing the listing. Kinda like when you presented an offer in the old days and took your market analysis to SHOW the Seller just in case the "listing agent" hadn't done that! Always pissed me off when they did that!

The lenders don't like big numbers without very specific line-item costs! They may be totally aware of the properties condition (belive you me--I tell them and show them with tons of photos!) but need specific numbes in which to show THEIR supervisor. They like "menu's" in which to justify to THEIR boss WHY they would be willing to credit a certain dollar amount. So next time you get an offer accepted come back with a "line-item" list of repairs in "menu" form which the Lender can refer. You're far more likely to get what you want at that time. Remember, if you are the lucky "winner" of a multiple offer property be careful coming back with a huge laundry list. The "assett managers" are more than willing to tell you to stick it and go back to the 7 other offers for a better deal.

That's your REO tip of the day! And don't forget to listen to the "Real Estate Hour", www.KSRO, Sundays, 9 to 10AM PST or tune-in at http://MikesRealEstateShow.com and listen there!

Sales Data for Sonoma County December of 2008! WOW! REO market Smokin'!

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 22:06:50 -0600

December 2008 "Stats"

All Listings for Sonoma County (includes further breakdowns below):

Actives CTS (Continue to Show) Pending Sales

#: 1870 689 167 457 4 months supply!

Median: $426,500 DOM--Days on the maket: 132

REO or Foreclosed properties:

#: 403 245 98 253 1.6 months supply!

Median: $274,900 DOM 65

Short-Sales:

#: 455 336 22 63 7.22 months supply!

Median: $299,900 DOM 142

Conclusions:

Year over year

'07 Sales 220 08 Sales 457 +71% This is a BIG number! Better than July of 2008!

'07 Median Price:$434500 '08 Median Price: $310,00 -31% Expected considering the nature of the sales makeup!

August '07 thru Dec '07: 1,398 Sales (This was the beginning of the "credit-crunch"!! )

" '08 " " '08 2,471 " Huge 56% Increase!!

Most disturbing Number? 73% of THIS market is selling and NOT buying! (REO+SS+New Home sales).

REO's count for 21.5% of ALL Actives BUT 55% of ALL Sales!
69% of our current market SALES are either pre/post foreclosure!
Listing "Fatigue" is creeping in as our "Actives" have plummeted! Good sales are helping but tis the season for taking your house off the market!! But tell your Sellers the Sales are WAY UP!!
This is a "Value-Driven" market! Buyers are getting "off the couch" to take advantage of this great "Sale" with 30 to 50% off "peak" home pricing.
Affordability is through the roof! We got as low as 7-8% (equal to Santa Barbara!) but now are hovering in the upper 40%!! Tremendous buying opportunities abound!
We have ONLY 4 months supply of ALL listings-this is indicative of a "hot" market!
Even the "Short-Sales" of shortened up their time. Lender's making deals?
REO's-blistering! 1.6 months supply-A raging Seller's Market!
In this time of "melt-down" Financial markets we are posting HUGE sales! Your buyer's are confident and see value in this market plus spectacular rates-SHARE WITH YOUR CLIENTS!

Loan Modifications--Unregulated Industry--Same Sub-prime Hustlers Striking again?

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 18:28:17 -0600

I wanted to put this out there to the Active Rain community to see if we have another unregulated industry taking the already beaten down consumer to the cleaners along the path of foreclosure!-- The Loan Modifications Scam or Savior?

This is a big buzz word in the real estate industry. We have many folks facing upside down loans with equities gone and loan amounts exceeding current values by hundreds of thousands of dollars. They are scared to death of loosign their homes and are being preyed upon by Loan Modifiers who collect "up-front" fees of thousands of dollars for a promise of "Loan Modification. Are these folks for real? I know to collect "upfront" fees before a service is provided you must go through a registration process with the Department of Real Estate (california). So far only 55 companies have done this. But I googled Loan Modification and got over 200,000 entries coming up!!

Can anyone reccomend solid Loan Modification companies? Don't hawk your company but give me results! I just see this as a segment of our population at risk of scams after being scamed by "warm-body" lenders who had no problem representing them in the sale as an agent and then also as a lender collecting more fees on the loan end than on the commission side! Are these the same people?

I heard one report stating 25% of the loans which underwent modification went BACK into default. The source in the article said this was a good thing!! You lenders out there--how long could you originate loans if 1 in 4 defaulted!!?? So how does one tell the good from the bad? Simple question--complex issue. Would appreciate the Active Rain communities help on this one. Thanks!

Best Practices Tip--Refer your relative/client-don't press a bad situation!

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 00:35:22 -0600

I know times are tough for many a Realtor out there in real estate land. We are tempted to work outside our areas of expertise because we really NEED a transaction to close! But as the old guru once said, "Always want a deal but don't NEED a deal!" I see way too many Realtors working either out of their area or out of their area of expertise as they desperately need a deal! I hear it all the time and the excuses range from, "They are one of my best clients and absolutely won't work with anyone but me!", to, "It's my cousin, she only works with family!".

I see folks coming up to my area who cannot acess the MLS, can't get into the home as they don't have a suitable MLS keypad but insist they can perform and REPRESENT their client with the highest form of standard of care. I don't belive it! My market is dominate currently by the REO/Short-Sale with homes under $500,000 generating multiple offers and overbids. I see Realtor/Agents coming into my marketplace askng for a combinatin code to get into an REO I have for sale (we don't give these out as this compromies the security of our MLS and is strictly for Vendor/appraisal work), or insist I SHOW their clients a property! They then send me an offer, NOT TO THE GUIDELINES specified in the MLS confidential remarks (because they've never seen them!), based on NO local knowledge or market conditions because THEY NEED A DEAL!!

What of our client's needs? Does their buyer deserve this treatment? They are NOT alerted to the hot new listings, are fumbling around in the dark relying on a relative or Realtor/agent NOT keeping their interests in mind and at the fore of the transaction. So why not refer and get a 25% fee for insisting their clients work with a local expert! I have had Realtor's/Agents I've networked with for years call me out of the blue to have me "show" their client a property, ask me for "comps" and what price they should structure the offer!!

When our prices went through the roof across the Bay Area we had this happen all the time as Realtor/Agents felt why refer when I can get half!! Now with prices tanking the agents are repeating this because they are NOT closing any deals in THEIR market area!! I know I'm venting but this lack of standard of care infuriates me!! Your thoughts?

Are Real Estate Referrals to Other Realtors Dying?

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 21:16:00 -0600

The Internet is "stealing" the referrals of many a Realtor/Agent. Gary Keller pondered this thought at our last KW "family reunion" when he stated many KW Realtors had NOT taken advantage of the power of referrals to other KW Realtors or other Realtor/agents. He noted our company wide lack of referral income to other KW Realtors across the country. He then proceeded to poo-poo designations as not really doing their job of bringing us all more referrals hence, whyhave one at all!

He then proceeded to tell us of the penetration of the internet in all aspects of the real estate transaction. I for one belive in designations for the education and invididual networking and referrals they bring. However, I belive the lack of referrals is simpy one more item the Internet has taken from traditional real estate transactions. When our sellers eventually turn to us to come list their home they have already been searching the internet for months prior to inviting us into their home. They most likely already know the neighborhood of the new town they'll be relocating, the schools, shops, have been previewing listings on many of the MLS free web sites and finally struck up an on-line relationship with a Realtor in their new town!

When we sit down with them they've also gleaned Zillow for all the eroneous information on their house, have googled us for our profiles and are loaded for bear as far as which sites they think we should concetrate our online marketing! So when we say, "Can I refer you to a great Realtor in the home you're considering?" They say, Nope! Thanks alot but we've already GOT an agent and have picked out some properties to see when you get our home sold! This is one reason why I feel referrals are way down but other reasons are the huge percentage of REO,bank owned sales which don't really equate to anyone buying! That and an aging Baby-Boomer rich Realtor stock who are retiring and just don't have the fight for another one of "those" markets! Your thoughts?

Sonoma County Statistics on Market Conditions--REO's fueling this market!

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 20:59:41 -0600

Sonoma County November Sales Data-What's Hot-What's NOT! Bank Owned homes still flying out the door!

December 14th, 2008 . by Mike Kelly

Here is the sales data for November gleaned from our local Multiple Listing Service of which I am a subscriber:

All Actives: 2087
In Escrow as a "Continue to Show": 786
Pending Sales (firm deals): 188
Solds/Closed escrows: 414

The median price for all Actives is $450,000 but the median price for Sales: $309,900. This is a 32% change from last year which simply shows you where the "Action is" when it comes to activity in the marketplace. Half of the sales are below this market and half above.

We currently have a 5 months supply of properties based on the "absorption" rate of 414 sales. This is a very balanced market.

This is a "value-driven" market which simply means prices are percieved to be at bargain prices. Hence the lowering of the median as this is the price point where the value exists. The REO (Real Estate Owned-bank foreclosed properties) is where the action is. Here is some data on this segment:

REO's: Actives: 416 Continue to Show: 272 Pending: 103 Sales/Closed Escrows: 239

Here's the story behind the data:

The "Active" REO's make up 20% of all Actives but 58% of ALL SALES!!
This is a big number. Where we have a 5 months supply overall, in this hot segment we have only 1.75 months supply of product.
A raging "Seller's" market being fueled by all those smart investors and first time homebuyers! Median price for the sales is $275,000. The "REO" market continues to fuel this market.

We are "re-cycling" the homes purchased in the fever of the former "Hot" market of 2001-2006. Remember, in 2004 we sold 650,000 units in California and 40% of those were "ZERO" down loans! That's 260,000 units with huge equity losses. Even those who bought with 5,10,20% down are wiped out.

Currently many "investors" clients being serviced by the big lenders, are holding off foreclosure proceedings through December. Perhaps awaiting a "bail-out" program which will give them some relief. Remember, when a lender forecloses the costs to them is a loss of at least 50%!! Not to mention the costs of marketing, fixing up the property, etc.

"Short-Sales" or where the Seller owes more on the house than what it is worth, continue to grow in popularity but NOT in closed escrows. The new, unregulated, "Loan Modification" wave is now sweeping across the nation. I did a recent google search and got over 230,000 entries for "Loan Modification"!! Be careful with these companies! Many want big bucks up front or when they get you a "modification". Spell out just WHAT the modification will be up front! If they don't deliver, don't pay them a cent! This is similiar to a "Short-Sales" in place! You get the lender to modify the loan not for a prospective buyer but for YOU the Seller!

Here's how the "Short-Sales" did in November:

"Short-Sales" 453 of All Actives or 22%. Continue to Show: 379 or 48% Pendings: 29 or 15% Solds:66 or 16%

We have a 6.86 supply of "Short-Sales" with median price of $285,000. Many say you get a great price on "Short-Sales" but the median price edge goes to REO's.

However, the big news and story continues to be the huge number of sales with NO MOVE UP buyers involved. If you add the "new homes sales" market, or builder/developers selling their product, then add in the REO,"Short-Sale" segment sales the total is a whopping 76.5 % of all sales result in NO MOVE UP BUYERS!! This is an amazing number which explains why the median of $450,000 for all "Actives" hovers at this number. No buyers are forcing their prices down!! The REO market has yet to have "price creep" into these segments on the scale of the more "entry level" pricing. But the resources of this mid and upper segments might be beginning to slip as unemployment rears its ugly head and savings/credit lines dry up due to falling home prices.

December is "A Christmas Story" Quiz Month on "The Real Estate Hour" The Voice of Sonoma County Real Estate

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 23:18:46 -0600

Yes, for all you die-hard "A Christmas Story" junkies and junkettes, I'm having a weekly contest where I ask a really obscure question regarding my favorite Xmas movie, the oh-so dud of a hit in 1983, "A Christmas Story". For those of you who know what I'm talking about, Amen Brother and Sister! For you philistines who have not mde the yearly indulgence of watching endless re-runs of this classic--for shame!

Those of you who answer the following questions will win a "major award"!! Just what yet I haven't really pondered but I'm sure it won't have a black mesh stocking surrounding it!!The Quiz is:

1. What was Ralphie and his Dad doing when he uttered the infamous "F" bomb!?
2. Where did Ralphies little brother hide all the time?
3. What did his Mom drop in his Dad's lap on Xmas morning?
4. What WAS the major award--be very specific on this one!
5. What was the neighbor's name?
6. What type of dogs did he own and what did they do that was so horrific on Xmas day!
7. What song did the Chineese servers sing to the family?
8. What was served and what was removed at the table?
9. What was the name of the gift Ralphie so coveted-be specific!
10. Lastly--what was pink,fuzzy, and made Ralphie sweat?

Remember--the winner or winnders will all get a "major award" But don't let these questions stop you--ask me 10 back!! Be witty and sharpe! But not too sharp! "You could put your eye out!"

Reflecting on how far we've come with Realtor Web-Sites!

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 21:11:17 -0600

My web-mistress and I were chatting about how far web-sites have come since the brave, new world days of infant sites which cost mega bucks to get up and running. The reason? All of this had to be developed, programmed, tested and tried on a web site and then monitored to gauge results. I just re-did my personal web site: www.MikeKelly.com and we have items on their undreamt of just a few years back! We can link to so many different web sites via "widgets" which make the site very "sticky" for consumers and cost us virtually nothing!

I have links which allow mapping, open house previews, data/mls searching, investment analysis,research on the invididual towns in my area for pricing and statistics on the marketplace, a "market-snapshot" link which will pull up all comps/actives in an area around a listing, how to instantly "chat" with me, on and on! Simply remarkable.

CIPS Meeting at KW Family Reunion

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 20:53:58 -0600

As a way to improve our referral contacts and share new ideas on how to promote the CIPS designation and derive more from this new designation, we are having a meeting open to all KW CIPS designees or those studying for or having an interest in, the CIPS Designation. If you're interested email me at: mkelly@realtour.com or call me on my cell at: 800-959-7244. We're trying to shoot for a meeting at Lunch at the Congress Center in Atlanta. I may just end up with a big, RED CIPS sign in the lobby/registration area if I can't find a suitable place to meet. So keep an eye out for me and come up and say Howdy!

Also, would anyone wish to start a referral network on a Regional scope say in Northern California where we could meet on a quarterly basis to discuss how to promote our designation, improve our marketing and strenghten our connections with one another?? Let me know on that level also.

And for your referrals to the "Wine Country" of Sonoma County keep me in mind! I've been working here exclusively for over 30 years and have my own radiio show (www.MikesRealEstateShow.com) and am an expert in the area.

CIPS meeting at Family Reunion

Michael Kelly,CIPS,CRS,SRES (Keller Williams Realty) — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 20:33:52 -0600

Fellow Cappers and Cappers to be! Those who now have their CIPS designation or those studying for or interested in , obtaining said desigantion of the International Section of NAR, we are attempting to get together at our upcoming Family Reunion starting this Saturday. We are thinking of meeting for Lunch sometime next week at a place near the World Congress Center were our family is gathering. Those interested can email me at mkelly@realtour.comand we will try and let all know of the place to meet. Hope to see you all at Family Reunion!! I may just end up with a Bright RED CIPS Sign sticking up in the air near the registration area on the tip of my Umbrella!! So stay tuned! My cell can be accessed at 800-959-7244.