Mick's Mortgage Market Report

Mortgage Market Comments for the Week of 11/30/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 11:02:25 -0600

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices rose last week pushing mortgage interest rates lower. The economic data continues to be mixed. Personal income, outlays, and PCE inflation data were stronger than expected. Trading was thin and erratic. Thin trading conditions, news of the looming debt crisis in Dubai and a continued influx of Fed money into the mortgage bond market helped rates improve.

Interest rates finished the week improved by about 1/2 of a discount point.

The employment report will be the most important release this week. This is one of those weeks where there are many economic releases classified as very important or important. The potential for market volatility is increased when these types of reports are released. Be alert throughout the entire week.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Construction Spending	Tuesday, Dec. 1, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.4%	Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
ISM Index	Tuesday, Dec. 1, 10:00 am, et	54.8	Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment	Wednesday, Dec. 2, 8:30 am, et	-155,000	Important. A measure of employment. Payroll weakness may bring lower rates.
Fed "Beige Book"	Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2:00 pm, et	None	Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
Revised Q3 Productivity	Thursday, Dec. 3, 8:30 am, et	8.5%	Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q4 Employment Cost Index	Thursday, Dec. 3, 8:30 am, et	+0.4%	Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Employment	Friday, Dec. 4, 8:30 am, et	Jobs -120,000 Unemp @ 10.2%	Very important. An increase in unemployment or a large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Factory Orders	Friday, Dec. 4, 10:00 am, et	+0.2%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

FED "BEIGE BOOK"

The Fed "Beige Book" is a summary of economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve regional districts. The release takes place eight times a year approximately two weeks ahead of each of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings. The report is used at the FOMC meetings, which tends to be one of the most influential events in the market.

Market participants are continually attempting to determine what FOMC interest rate policy will be ahead of the next meeting. Any deviation from expectations usually results in extreme short-term market volatility. The timing of the "Beige Book" provides analysts a valuable look at one of the many factors the FOMC considers in setting interest rate policy. If the "Beige Book" shows signs of inflationary pressures, the Fed's ability to keep rates lower may be somewhat restricted. However, if the report shows signs of difficulties, the Fed may keep rates low to stimulate the economy.

The "Beige Book" release on Wednesday should provide market participants with valuable insight into what the Fed will do and how mortgage interest rates will respond in the short-term. Be cautious heading into this and the other important releases this week.

Mortgage Market in Review - 11/16/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 22:41:41 -0600

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices rose last week pushing mortgage interest rates lower. The Fed spent another $45 billion buying mortgage bonds between November 5th and the 11th. For all the criticism the Fed receives for the handling of the economy, they do deserve credit for keeping mortgage interest rates low throughout this year. How it all plays out in the long term is uncertain. The record Treasury auctions continued to be absorbed in trading without any major problems. For the week, interest rates improved by about 7/8ths of a discount point.

The consumer price index data Wednesday will be the most important release this week. Producer price index data along with retail sales data will set the tone for the start of the week. Inflation indications would likely hurt mortgage interest rates but signs of tame inflation could help rates improve.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Retail Sales	Monday, Nov. 16, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.9%	Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower rates.
Business Inventories	Monday, Nov. 16, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.6%	Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. A significantly large increase may lead to lower rates.
Producer Price Index	Tuesday, Nov. 17, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.5%, Core up 0.1%	Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
Industrial Production	Tuesday, Nov. 17, 9:15 am, et	Up 0.3%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A lower than expected increase may lead to lower rates.
Capacity Utilization	Tuesday, Nov. 17, 9:15 am, et	70.8%	Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Housing Starts	Wednesday, Nov. 18, 8:30 am, et	Up 1.5%	Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Price Index	Wednesday, Nov. 18, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.2%, Core up 0.1%	Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
Leading Economic Indicators	Thursday, Nov. 19, 10:00 am, et	Up 0.4%	Important. An indication of future economic activity. A smaller increase may lead to lower rates.
Philadelphia Fed Survey	Thursday, Nov. 19, 10:00 am, et	None	Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

TAX CREDIT EXTENSION

The housing market received some good news when Congress recently acted on the pleas of housing sector professionals and extended the $8000 first time homebuyer tax credit. In addition, the program was expanded to include move-up buyers with a $6500 tax credit. The program now runs through April of next year. Prior to the extension the program was set to eclipse at the end of November.

Even with the positive measure there is still some criticism the program does nothing to address the foreclosure problems that continue to plague the housing market. Unfortunately the cost to extend the credit is around $1 billion per month. This has politicians from both sides of the isle concerned.

The new and move-up buyer incentives coupled with historically low interest rates make now a great time to purchase a home. Low rates also make it favorable for many current homeowners to refinance.

Mortgage Market in Review - 11/2/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 09:13:47 -0600

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices rose last week pushing mortgage interest rates lower. Rates spiked higher Monday morning as stocks surged and the Treasury auctions loomed. Fortunately, foreign demand for the notes was solid, helping to keep mortgage rates low. The stock markets remained volatile all week with the Dow Jones index swinging by triple digits both up and down.

For the week, interest rates improved by about 1/4 of a discount point.

The Fed meeting on Wednesday will be the most important event this week. Productivity and employment figures are likely to move the market.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Construction Spending	Monday, Nov. 2, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.4%	Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
ISM Index	Monday, Nov. 2, 10:00 am, et	53.0	Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Factory Orders	Tuesday, Nov. 3, 10:00 am, et	Up 1.0%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
ADP Employment	Wednesday, Nov. 4, 8:30 am, et	Down 190k	Important. An indication of unemployment. A larger decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns	Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2:15 pm, et	No rate change	Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but some volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Preliminary Q3 Productivity	Thursday, Nov. 5, 8:30 am, et	Up 5.8%	Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Employment	Friday, Nov. 6, 8:30 am, et	Unemp. @ 9.9%, Payrolls -166k	Very important. An increase in unemployment or a large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Consumer Credit	Friday, Nov. 6, 3:00 pm, et	Down $10 billion	Low importance. A significant increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.

VOLATILITY LIKELY

The likeliness of mortgage interest rate volatility this week is very high considering the abundance of important economic releases.

Each piece of data has the ability to cause volatility in the financial markets. Floating ahead of the data exposes a person to a tremendous amount of risk. It is possible for interest rates to improve if the data shows weakness in the economy with few price pressures. However, any surprises will likely be bad for mortgage interest rates.

Governmental actions in addition to the economic data continue to weigh upon the financial markets. We are really in uncharted territory here with the wobbly underpinnings of the economy. Credit remains tight, as lending has become more stringent. However, there still remain funds available. Real estate transactions continue to take place despite perceptions to the contrary.

The important thing to remember is that even the Treasury officials trying to shore the economy do not know exactly what the future holds. With this in mind, be cautious during these times of economic uncertainty and be ready to lock in the event interest rates start to spike higher.

Mortgage Market Comments for the Week of 10/26/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 10:57:07 -0500

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices ended the week nearly unchanged despite considerable market volatility. Trading was up and down all week. Rates improved the first portion of the week as stocks fell below key psychological levels. Unfortunately a reversal the middle portion of the week eroded the earlier improvements. Data was mixed with tame inflation readings but generally stronger than expected economic activity. For the week, interest rates were near unchanged.

The Treasury auctions will take center stage again this week. If there is strong foreign demand it will likely spill over to the mortgage bond market. Weak auctions will likely result in mortgage interest rate increases. Employment cost index data will also be carefully watched.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date & Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Durable Goods Orders	Tuesday, Oct. 27, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.7%	Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Confidence	Tuesday, Oct. 27, 10:00 am, et	54.0	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
2-year Treasury Note Auction	Tuesday, Oct. 27, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. $44 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
New Home Sales	Wednesday, Oct. 28, 10:00 am, et	Up 2.6%	Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
5-year Treasury Note Auction	Wednesday, Oct. 28, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. $41 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q3 Advance GDP	Thursday, Oct. 29, 8:30 am, et	Up 3.1%	Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
7-year Treasury Note Auction	Thursday, Oct. 29, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. $31 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Personal Income and Outlays	Friday, Oct. 30, 8:30 am, et	Unchanged, Down 0.4%	Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q3 Employment Cost Index	Friday, Oct. 30, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.5%	Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Friday, Oct. 30, 10:00 am, et	70.0	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Existing Home Sales

Last week's existing home sales data shocked the market with a stronger than expected increase. Sales rose 9.4%, considerably stronger than the expected 5.5% increase. Some analysts attribute the surge in sales to the $8000 tax credit that is currently set to expire at the end of November. Lower home prices and historically low mortgage interest rates also factored into the increase. From a national perspective this is a positive report. However, the fact that some major metropolitan areas of the country failed to see improvements is an example of the axiom that real estate is local.

There is still uncertainty regarding the future state of the economy. Mortgage rates are great. Take advantage of them while that remains the case.

Mortgage Market In Review - 8/3/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 13:33:38 -0500

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices rallied Friday pushing mortgage interest rates lower. Bond friendly Core PCE inflation data came in lower than expected. The Fed's most recent estimates call for an increase in this figure by the end of the year. The fact that the data showed lower inflation helped mortgage bonds rally. Consumer confidence came in at a weaker than expected 46.6 mark. Analysts were looking for a reading of 48.7. The Treasury auctions were mixed. The 2 and 5 year note auctions received poor foreign demand while the 7-year auction showed strong foreign demand. For the week interest rates fell by about 3/4 of a discount point.

The employment report will be the most important release this week. With so many data releases expect the market to be very volatile.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Construction Spending	Monday, Aug. 3, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.6%	Low importance. An indication of economic strength. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates.
ISM Index	Monday, Aug. 3, 10:00 am, et	46.5	Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Personal Income and Outlays	Tuesday, Aug. 4, 8:30 am, et	Down 1.0%, Up 0.3%	Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment	Wednesday, Aug. 5, 8:30 am, et	Down 340k	Important. An indication of employment. A larger decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Factory Orders	Wednesday, Aug. 5, 10:00 am, et	Up 0.5%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Employment	Friday, Aug. 7, 8:30 am, et	9.6%, Down 333k	Very important. An increase in unemployment or a large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Consumer Credit	Friday, Aug. 7, 2:00 pm, et	Down $4.1 billion	Low importance. A significantly larger than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.

PERSONAL INCOME & OUTLAYS

The personal income and outlays release is a monthly report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The data is important because it is thought to provide a solid indication of future consumer demand. The personal income component is primarily a measure of wages and salaries. The outlays component is primarily a measure of spending on goods and services. Together the figures provide analysts valuable insight into consumer economic standing and consumption.

The prior release showed wages and salaries decreased $12.4 billion. Future decreases may adversely affect consumer spending and the entire US economy. Decreased wages coupled with tighter borrowing restrictions make it difficult for consumers to spend money.

It is important to note that no single economic indicator can consistently predict the future of the economy. However, the personal income and outlays report is a closely watched release. The consumer remains a vital component of the US economy.

Now is a good time to take advantage of mortgage interest rates at their current levels to avoid exposure to future market volatility.

Mortgage Market In Review - 8/3/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 12:05:32 -0500

MARKET COMMENT

The employment report will be the most important release this week. With so many data releases expect the market to be very volatile.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Construction Spending	Monday, Aug. 3, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.6%	Low importance. An indication of economic strength. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates.
ISM Index	Monday, Aug. 3, 10:00 am, et	46.5	Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Personal Income and Outlays	Tuesday, Aug. 4, 8:30 am, et	Down 1.0%, Up 0.3%	Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment	Wednesday, Aug. 5, 8:30 am, et	Down 340k	Important. An indication of employment. A larger decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Factory Orders	Wednesday, Aug. 5, 10:00 am, et	Up 0.5%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Employment	Friday, Aug. 7, 8:30 am, et	9.6%, Down 333k	Very important. An increase in unemployment or a large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Consumer Credit	Friday, Aug. 7, 2:00 pm, et	Down $4.1 billion	Low importance. A significantly larger than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.

PERSONAL INCOME & OUTLAYS

Now is a good time to take advantage of mortgage interest rates at their current levels to avoid exposure to future market volatility.

Mortgage Market in Review - 7/13/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 13:14:44 -0500

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices had another volatile week with rates rallying midweek as the additional Treasury debt was absorbed well. Foreign demand for the shorter-term auctions was surprisingly strong while the longer-term auction was average. The US Treasury auctioned $963 billion of debt the first half of this year and is expected to offer $1.1trillion in he second half.

Weekly jobless claims were not as bad as expected which didn't help mortgage bond prices. However, falling oil prices helped ease inflation fears and enabled mortgage bond prices to increase, which pushed rates lower. Oil was under $60/barrel last Thursday morning. For the week interest rates improved by about 1/2 of a discount point.

The consumer price index data Wednesday will be the most important data this week. Signs of inflationary pressures from any of the data releases will not bode well for mortgage interest rates.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Producer Price Index	Tuesday, July 14, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.7%, Core up 0.1%	Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Lower figures may lead to lower rates.
Retail Sales	Tuesday, July 14, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.5%	Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Consumer Price Index	Wednesday, July 15, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.6%, Core up 0.1%	Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Lower figures may lead to lower rates.
Industrial Production	Wednesday, July 15, 9:15 am, et	Down 0.6%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Capacity Utilization	Wednesday, July 15, 9:15 am, et	67.9%	Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Fed Minutes	Wednesday, July 15, 2:00 pm, et	None	Important. Details of the last Fed meeting will be thoroughly analyzed.
Philadelphia Fed Survey	Thursday, July 16, 10:00 am, et	None	Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Housing Starts	Friday, July 17, 8:30 am, et	Down 0.1%	Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Larger than expected decrease may lead to lower rates.

FED MINUTES

The Federal Open Market Committee decided in December of 2004 to reduce the lag time between the open market committee meeting and the release of the minutes from six to eight weeks to only three weeks. The minutes from the meeting have the ability to cause mortgage interest rate volatility because they provide more policy details than the standard post meeting release. Most importantly the minutes provide the Fed's complete economic analysis and the various opinions of individual Fed members. There is typically an overwhelming consensus among the members. However, there can also be dissension, which often causes uneasiness in the financial markets. The release often comes and goes without much uproar but keep in mind that if any of the text seems troubling to analysts you can see market volatility.

Remember that mortgage interest rates remaining historically favorable. Capitalizing on current levels is wise amid the recent economic instability across the globe. Inflation fears could be stoked with continued Middle East tension and hurricane season heading our way. Inflation, real or perceived, generally does not bode well for mortgage bonds and could cause rates to rise.

Mortgage Market in Review - 7/6/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:19:15 -0500

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices had another volatile week with rates pushing higher the beginning of the week only to bounce back towards the end. Thursday's employment report was mixed. Non-farm payrolls fell 467,000 in June and the unemployment rate stood at 9.5%. Estimates were for jobs to decline 365,000 and the unemployment rate to stand at 9.6%. Fortunately the payrolls figure gained most of the attention along with falling oil prices and we recovered about 1/2 of a discount point Thursday morning. Oil was under $67/barrel Thursday morning, which helped alleviate inflation fears. The bond market was closed Friday for the holiday. For the week interest rates were near unchanged.

The additional debt supplied tied to the US Treasury auctions will be the most important data this week. The trade data may also move the financial markets.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
3-year Treasury Note Auction	Tuesday, July 7, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
10-year Treasury Note Auction	Wednesday, July 8, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Consumer Credit	Wednesday, July 8, 3:00 pm, et	Down $7.5 billion	Low importance. A significantly large increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
30-year Treasury Bond Auction	Thursday, July 9, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Trade Data	Friday, July 10, 8:30 am, et	$30 billion deficit	Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Friday, July 10, 10:00 am, et	71.0	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

WEATHER

The mortgage interest rate markets are subject to an enormous number of factors. Most analysts agree that weather can have an effect on market activity. Although the effects are seldom long lasting, they can be quite significant.

The United States is the world's largest exporter of corn. Last year, relatively rainy weather across the Midwest portions of the United States delayed the planting of corn. This caused corn prices to escalate. This year corn farmers planted more acres of corn than analysts expected. Larger corn crops recently caused prices to fall. This is one bright spot amid heightened inflationary fears. Lower corn prices likely will result in lower food prices for some items.

The weather also has the potential to directly alter fuel prices. As we enter the hurricane season, many oil and gas fields in the Gulf along with refineries along coasts are susceptible to damage. If this were to occur, oil prices would almost surely rise sharply. Rising oil prices would do little to help mortgage bond prices already pressured by inflationary fears and competition for investor funds from record debt levels. The result would most likely be higher rates.

The economic effects of various weather occurrences may cause only temporary changes in economic activity. However, those times of change can have a lasting impact on people obtaining mortgages. Despite the rate volatility seen recently, mortgage interest rates remain historically favorable for borrowers. Now is a great time to take advantage of rates at these levels.

Mortgage Market in Review - 5/5/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Tue, 05 May 2009 14:59:33 -0500

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices fell last week applying upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. Trading remained extremely volatile with daily swings of 3/8's in discount points a common occurrence. The economic data released was mixed with no clear indication of the direction of the US economy. The Federal Reserve met last week and the governing body indicated the pace of economic deterioration is slowing. For the week, interest rates rose by about 5/8's in discount points.

The employment report to be released Friday will be the most significant data this week. Productivity data will be important also. Additional debt supply hits the market this week with the Fed auctioning $71 billion of 3, 10, and 30 year Treasuries. It will be interesting to see if the market can continue to absorb the additional debt.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date & Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
3-year Treasury Note Auction	Tuesday, May 5, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment	Wednesday, May 6, 8:30 am, et	Down 643k	Important. An indication of the employment situation. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
10-year Treasury Note Auction	Wednesday, May 6, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Preliminary Q1 Productivity	Thursday May 7, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.9%	Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
30-year Treasury Bond Auction	Thursday, May 7, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Consumer Credit	Thursday, May 7, 3:00 pm, et	Down $3.3 billion	Low importance. A significantly large increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
Employment	Friday, May 8, 8:30 am, et	Unemp. @ 8.9%, Payrolls -620k	Very important. An increase in unemployment or a larger decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.

Employment

The employment report provides an abundance of information for almost every sector of the economy. Not only does the employment report give basic employment payroll statistics for the major working sectors, it also provides the average hourly earnings and the average workweek. Using this information provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor, economists estimate many other economic indicators such as industrial production, personal income, housing starts, and GDP monthly revisions. Since there is little data for economists to base their estimates on, the margin of error for the estimates tends to be high. As a result, the employment report can cause substantial market movements. The BLS compiles data from two unrelated surveys that they conduct, the household survey and the establishment survey, in order to complete the employment report. This explains why sometimes there is an unexpected divergence between the unemployment rate and payrolls figures each month. This week's employment data will provide valuable insight into the state of the economy.

Mortgage Market In Review - 4/28/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 14:54:01 -0500

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices remained near unchanged holding mortgage interest rates relatively steady for the week. There was very little data the first portion of the week and rates improved slightly as the DOW was down 183 points at one point Monday morning. Unfortunately the durable goods orders and new home sales data were not as weak as expected which helped stocks rally at the expense of bonds the latter portion of the week. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans were unchanged.

The Treasury auctions will factor heavily in trading this week. It will be interesting to see how the additional debt supply is absorbed. The gross domestic product and employment cost index data will be the most important releases. No surprises are expected from the Fed but the meeting may still result in some mortgage interest rate volatility.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date & Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
2-year Treasury Note Auction	Monday, April 27, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Consumer Confidence	Tuesday, April 28, 10:00 am, et	28	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
5-year Treasury Note Auction	Tuesday, April 28, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q1 Advance GDP	Wednesday, April 29, 8:30 am, et	Down 4.9%	Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
7-year Treasury Note Auction	Wednesday, April 29, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns	Wednesday, April 29, 2:15 pm, et	No change	Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but some volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Personal Income and Outlays	Thursday, April 30, 8:30 am, et	Down 0.2%, Down 0.1%	Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q1 Employment Cost Index	Thursday, April 30, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.5%	Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Friday, May 1, 10:00 am, et	61.3	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Factory Orders	Friday, May 1, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.7%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A larger decrease may lead to lower rates.
ISM Index	Friday, May 1, 10:00 am, et	38.0	Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. A larger decline may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Relevant Data

This week brings significant data. However, the results of some of the releases may be muted a bit considering they take place after the Fed meeting adjourns Wednesday. Nonetheless, the inflation release still has the potential to result in market swings so caution is the key. Remember that market direction can turn very quickly as has been evident of late. It is a safe bet that nobody wants to get caught behind the market if it does make a huge correction following a release.

Mortgage Market in Review - 4/20/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 16:36:58 -0500

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices rose last week helping mortgage interest rates improve. The mixed economic data released during the week provided no clear indication to the direction of the US economy. One bright spot was the consumer and producer price index data, which showed no signs of rising inflation. Inflation erodes the value of money received in the future, therefore, when inflation is on the rise so are interest rates to compensate for the reduced purchasing power.

For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans fell by about 1/8th of a discount point.

The leading economic indicators release Monday will set the tone for trading this week. Durable goods orders data will be the most important data release.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Leading Economic Indicators	Monday, April 20, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.2%	Important. An indication of future economic activity. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Existing Home Sales	Thursday, April 23, 10:00 am, et	Down 1.5%	Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Durable Goods Orders	Friday, April 24, 8:30 am, et	Down 1.4%	Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
New Home Sales	Friday, April 24, 10:00 am, et	Up 0.9%	Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is a weighted average of eleven economic variables that "lead" the business cycle. It is constructed for forecasting future aggregate economic activity. The eleven variables that make up the LEI measure workers' hours, initial unemployment claims, new factory orders, vendor performance, contracts and orders for plant and equipment, new housing permits, changes in unfilled orders, prices of raw materials, stock prices, money supply and consumer expectations.

Each of the variables that comprise the index has a tendency to predict (or lead) economic activity. For example, new orders for manufactured goods, new orders for plant and equipment, and new building permits are all direct measures of the amount of future production being planned for the economy.

Analysts monitor the LEI in an effort to predict future economic growth. When the LEI report is up, mortgage market participants expect credit demand to increase and inflationary pressures to build. Thus, when the LEI report is rising, interest rates tend to rise as well.

The LEI report is a valuable forecasting device that correctly predicts most economic turning points. The percentage change in the LEI is reported monthly and is an indication of the activity that will occur within the next three to six months. The LEI tends to turn down before peaks in the business cycle. Continuous declines are generally accepted as evidence that a recession continues.

Nine of the eleven components that make up this index are known before the release of the report, so the index is easy for economists to predict. Thus, although this is important predictive data for market participants, market volatility does not usually surround the release of this data. However, considering there are few data releases this week mortgage interest rates may have a stronger than normal reaction to any disparity between the consensus estimate and the actual result of the release.

Take advantage of the current low interest rate environment. It is possible for rates to improve. However, if rates move higher, they are likely to spike fast and furiously.

Mortgage Market in Review - 4/6/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 10:30:45 -0500

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices fell last week applying upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. The bond market continued to come under pressure from significantly stronger stocks. The DOW shot towards the 8,000 mark despite data releases that showed continued economic weakness. Most worrisome were the many reports that indicated people continue to lose jobs. Consumers find it difficult to spend without a job or with the fear their job may be in peril. The weaker than expected consumer sentiment data provided evidence of that fear. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 3/8's of a discount point.

The bond market closes early Thursday in advance of the market holiday Friday. The shortened trading week may result in mortgage interest rate volatility as traders position themselves ahead of the extended holiday weekend.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Consumer Credit	Tuesday, April 7, 2:00 pm, et	Down $1.5 billion	Low importance. A significantly larger than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
Trade Data	Thursday, April 9, 8:30 am, et	$36.5 billion deficit	Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
Good Friday Holiday	Friday, April 10		Important. Shortened trading week may lead to mortgage interest rate volatility.

CREDIT DEMAND

Inflation is typically the most important focus for the mortgage interest rate market. Inflation remains a concern as the Federal Government continues to print and spend money in an effort to spur the economy. Unfortunately, mortgage interest rates also continue to be pushed around by gyrating stocks and weak demand as performance uncertainty looms and the Fed has become the primary buyer of mortgage-backed securities. Most of the recent increases in interest rates have come following stronger stocks. The Fed continues to pump billions of dollars into the market to try to keep mortgage interest rates relatively low and steady. Up until this past week they have done a pretty good job of accomplishing that task. Remember, the Fed is not the only player in the game and selling pressure continues.

The level of interest rates reflects the balance between the supply of money from investors and the demand for money by borrowers. Rising inflationary expectations and uncertainty about the performance of the debt cause investors to require higher rates of return on investments to compensate for the erosion of the principal that eventually is returned to them or the risk of non-performance. Regardless of inflation levels, though, rising economic activity can increase the demand for investors' funds, and thereby lead to higher interest rates. Investors pulling money out of bonds and into stocks have recently pressured mortgage rates.

The demand for money diminishes as the economy struggles. The Fed lowers interest rates as an incentive to businesses and consumers to increase their borrowings. The Fed hopes manufacturers will increase their investments in plants, equipment and inventories and that consumers will push housing construction along with consumer spending and with that, consumer debt.

Analysts will monitor this week's consumer credit levels. There is much debate in the financial community about the future. Economists, market analysts, and traders all seem to have a different opinion about the future state of the economy and especially whether or not we have hit the bottom of the economic slide. One thing most market participants agree on is both the bond and stock markets are going to see additional volatility. Now is a great time to take advantage of rates at the still historically favorable levels.

Mortgage Market in Review - 3/30/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 08:59:41 -0500

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices fell last week applying upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. The bond market got a shock from a surprise increase in new home sales, stronger than expected durable goods orders, and some stock strength. There were also concerns about the US dollar in general and dollar denominated securities as China expressed interest in substituting the yuan to dollar peg in exchange for a new international currency. Fortunately the Fed continued to come to the rescue buying mortgage backed securities in an effort to keep interest rates relatively steady and low. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 1/8 to 1/4 of a discount point.

The employment report Friday will be the most important economic release this week.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Consumer Confidence	Tuesday, March 31, 10:00 am, et	28.0	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment	Wednesday, April 1, 8:30 am, et	Dow 648k	Important. A measure of employment. A larger decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Construction Spending	Wednesday, April 1, 10:00 am, et	Down 2.0%	Low importance. An indication of economic strength. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates.
ISM Index	Wednesday, April 1, 10:00 am, et	35.5	Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. A large decline may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Factory Orders	Thursday, April 2, 10:00 am, et	Down 1.3%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A larger decrease may lead to lower rates.
Employment	Friday, April 3, 8:30 am, et	8.5%, -657k	Very important. An increase in unemployment or a larger decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

The Conference Board releases the Consumer Confidence Index on the last Tuesday of every month. The report details the levels of confidence individual households have in the performance of the economy. The data is derived from a survey of 5,000 households nationwide. The survey polls consumer opinions on current business conditions, their jobs, their incomes, and their future spending plans.

The consumer confidence index is significant in that it provides a precursor into consumers' willingness to spend in the months ahead. However, many analysts point out that willingness to spend does not always convert to actual expenditures.

Despite economic uncertainty, liquidity issues, and housing market weakness, American consumers continue to spend. However, many analysts question whether consumers can continue to buoy the economy, especially amid rising unemployment and tightening credit.

This week's release will be eagerly anticipated. Look for any variation from estimates to cause mortgage interest rate volatility. Signs of eroding consumer confidence could lead to improvements in mortgage interest rates. However, stronger than expected figures could spike rates higher.

With mortgage interest rates relatively low, capitalizing on current levels is recommended to protect against future volatility. Remember, mortgage interest rates tend to trend lower slowly, while increases tend to occur quickly. A cautious approach is necessary to protect from future market volatility.

Mortgage Market in Review - 3/23/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 09:03:04 -0500

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices rose last week applying downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. The bond market got a boost from the Fed announcement (read below) to buy more mortgage debt. There was some profit taking in bonds Thursday afternoon following the run-up in prices Wednesday. Higher than expected core readings of the consumer and producer price indices reignited some inflation concerns. The Fed's continued efforts to pump money into mortgage bonds helped keep mortgage interest rates favorable. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans fell by about 1/2 of a discount point.

The Treasury auctions will once again take center stage this week as additional debt supply hits the market. Durable goods orders and consumer sentiment data will be important.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Existing Home Sales	Monday, March 23, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.8%	Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates.
2-year Treasury Note Auction	Tuesday, March 24, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Durable Goods Orders	Wednesday, March 25, 8:30 am, et	Down 2.0%	Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
New Home Sales	Wednesday, March 25, 10:00 am, et	Down 2.9%	Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
5-year Treasury Note Auction	Wednesday, March 25, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q4 GDP final revision	Thursday, March 26, 8:30 am, et	Down 6.6%	Important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
7-year Treasury Note Auction	Thursday, March 26, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Personal Income and Outlays	Friday, March 27, 8:30 am, et	Down 0.1%, Outlays up 0.3%	Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Friday, March 27, 10:00 am, et	56.0	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

ADDITIONAL FED MONEY

Last week the Federal Reserve announced it would pump another $750 billion into purchasing more mortgage-backed securities, the bonds that directly dictate 30 year and 15 year fixed rate Government and Conventional mortgage interest rates. This is in addition to the $500 billion being used between January and June to drive mortgage interest rates lower and help stimulate the economy.

So far the Fed has been able to keep mortgage interest rates relatively low while not destroying the functioning secondary market where investors buy and sell mortgage bonds. The potential negative is that the Fed has become the primary purchaser of these bonds. In the short term take advantage of these advantageous rates. There is uncertainty how things will play out once the Fed begins to unwind those positions in the futures.

Mortgage Market in Review - 3/16/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 08:11:37 -0500

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices rose last week applying downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. The bond market as a whole absorbed the additional debt supply the Treasury issued. There were some surprises with the retail sales figure not being as weak as expected and significant stock strength. However, the Fed's continued efforts to pump money into mortgage bonds helped keep mortgage interest rates favorable. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans fell by about 1/4 of a discount point.

The Fed meeting Wednesday will take center stage. While the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged their post meeting remarks will be carefully analyzed. The producer price index and consumer price index releases will be the most important data this week.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Industrial Production	Monday, March 16, 9:15 am, et	Down 1.2%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Capacity Utilization	Monday, March 16, 9:15 am, et	71.1%	Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. A decrease may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
Producer Price Index	Tuesday, March 17, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.4%, Core up 0.1%	Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Lower figures may lead to lower rates.
Housing Starts	Tuesday, March 17, 8:30 am, et	Down 2.8%	Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Larger than expected decrease may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Price Index	Wednesday, March 18, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.3%, Core up 0.1%	Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Lower figures may lead to lower rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns	Wednesday, March 18, 2:15 pm, et	No change	Important. Few expect the change rates, but some volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Leading Economic Indicators	Thursday, March 19, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.6%	Important. An indication of future economic activity. A smaller increase may lead to lower rates.

FOREIGN DEMAND

China's Premier expressed concerns last week about the US debt holdings they have. "We have made a huge amount of loans to the United States. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I'm a little bit worried," Wen Jiabao said. "I would like to call on the United States to honor its words, stay a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese Assets." These remarks quickly caused panic in fixed income trading. The panic was eventually calmed but uncertainties were left regarding the future of the entire US debt market. China is the largest foreign holder of US debt and continues to debate future purchases.

Global investors are constantly searching for opportunities that will provide the greatest return with the least amount of acceptable risk. Investment products inherently all possess some sort of risk. As global financial markets struggled, many market participants searched for a safe haven in the US financial markets even with their shortcomings. With the backing of the US Government, investors viewed the US Treasury and mortgage bond markets as less risky investment opportunities amid global economic uncertainty. This resulted in an increased demand for US investments, such as the mortgage-backed securities that affect mortgage interest rates. Increased demand for mortgage bonds moves prices higher and interest rates lower. A reversal of this foreign demand could result in rates spiking higher. Caution is the key.

Mortgage Market in Review - 3/9/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 08:27:02 -0500

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices rose last week applying downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. Rates found support from falling stock prices. The Dow Jones index fell into the 6,000 range early in the week and was unable to recover. The employment report released last Friday indicated continued weakness in the labor market with the US economy losing 651,000 jobs in February.

For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans fell by about 5/8's of a discount point.

The Treasury auctions will take center stage this week as debt supply concerns continue. Most of the other releases are expected to be weaker and, any surprises to the contrary, will likely result in mortgage interest rate volatility.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
3-year Treasury Note Auction	Tuesday March 10, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
10-year Treasury Note Auction	Wednesday, March 11, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Retail Sales	Thursday, March 12, 8:30 am, et	Down 0.4%	Important. A measure of consumer demand. A larger decrease may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Business Inventories	Thursday, March 12, 10:00 am, et	Down 1.1%	Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. An increase may lead to lower rates.
30-year Treasury Bond Auction	Thursday, March 12, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Trade Data	Friday, March 13, 8:30 am, et	$38.2 billion deficit	Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Friday, March 13, 10:00 am, et	56.3	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

RETAIL SALES

Retail sales data is the first indication of weakness or strength in consumer spending released each month. The Bureau of the Census of the US Department of Commerce provides information on how much the consumer spends on the purchase of goods. This data provides the consumption part of the gross domestic product. Retail sales data represents merchandise sold for cash or credit by retailers. Durable goods, such as autos, make up 35% of the figure. The balance consists of non-durables such as gasoline, restaurants, and general merchandise.

There are several drawbacks to the report. The data covers purchases of goods only, not services. It is also not adjusted for inflation and is extremely volatile.

Economists are concerned that the current economic uncertainty will continue to curtail consumer-spending habits. Consumers have generally been given credit for sustaining the economy even amid the economic turmoil.

The data will be a vital component in determining just how bad things really are. Be cautious. Mortgage interest rates rallied nicely last week and continued improvements are not a given. Take advantage of favorable movements when they come your way.

5 Questions To Ask Yourself for the Biggest Tax Refund

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 14:31:22 -0600

Five Questions to Ask Yourself for the Biggest Tax Refund (ARA) - Tax refunds have risen an average of $200 for people who have filed their 2008 tax returns early, the Internal Revenue Service reports. Part of the reason for the increase - the IRS has made several changes aimed at helping taxpayers save money this year.

Ask yourself five simple questions to see if you're affected by these changes that could result in more deductions and a larger refund:

Did you experience any major life changes in 2008? Job change, marriage, divorce, childbirth, adoption, relocation, bankruptcy and other life changes can result in major deductions. Taxpayers who didn't receive any or all of the Recovery Rebate last year, and experienced a life change that dramatically affected their financial situation this year, may qualify for the Recovery Rebate Credit.
Are you a homeowner? Did you purchase a home for the first time or refinance your home last year? Did you install a clean fuel energy source (wind turbine, solar panels, fuel cells or geothermal heat pump)? Americans affected by storms, flooding, wildfires or hurricanes may also be entitled to extra relief.
Did you donate cash or non-cash items to charities last year? If so, find the receipts. If you don't have receipts, ask the charities for one or ask your credit card company for a copy of the transaction. Determine the value for your non-cash donations. One of the leading tax preparation software products can help with this. Donation Assistant in TaxACT Online Deluxe (just $9.95) provides values for more than 700 non-cash charitable donations that are IRS-approved and backed by a 100 percent audit guarantee.
Did you contribute to a retirement fund? Moderate- and low-income taxpayers may receive a credit of as much as 50 percent of the first $2,000 invested in a 401(k), 403(b), SEP, SIMPLE, Governmental 457 or IRA (traditional or Roth). Single taxpayers with adjusted gross incomes (AGIs) up to $26,500 and joint filers with AGIs up to $53,000 are likely eligible.
Do you work, but have a lower income? A quarter of all taxpayers who qualify for the Earned Income Tax Credit don't claim the credit. If you qualify, it could be worth up to $4,800 this year. Generally, earned income and AGI must each be less than:

- $38,646 ($41,646 married filing jointly) with two or more qualifying children;
- $33,995 ($36,995 married filing jointly) with one qualifying child;
- $12,880 ($15,880 married filing jointly) with no qualifying children.

Now that you're armed with money-saving information, do your taxes today. The sooner you file, the faster you'll have your refund. If you owe money, you may be able to pay your taxes in installments or obtain a short-term extension.

To make the process of preparing your taxes easier and quicker, follow these simple tips:

Check www.IRS.gov on a regular basis for the latest tax hints and news. The information is extensive yet easy to understand. You may find the detailed information about the Earned Income Tax Credit and Recover Rebate Credit especially helpful this year.
Use tax preparation software. You have nothing to lose because leading products like TaxACT allow you to try it for free. If you like TaxACT, you can prepare, print and e-file your Federal return for FREE and then use that information to quickly complete and file your State return for just $13.95.
E-file your return. It's fast, easy and secure, and allows you to have your refund in half the time -- in as few as 8 days with direct deposit.

More information about IRS tax changes for the 2008 tax year can be found at www.IRS.gov, and information about TaxACT products is available at www.TaxACT.com.

Mortgage Market in Review - 3/1/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 08:34:27 -0600

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing mortgage interest rates higher. A Freddie Mac report of increased defaults sent bond prices crashing and interest rates higher mid-week. The Treasury auctions generally showed mediocre foreign demand and the overall additional debt supply also pressured mortgage bond prices lower. Most of the data continued to show economic weakness but there was a slight up tick in the consumer sentiment number that was not bond-friendly. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 1/2 to 5/8 of a discount point.

The employment report Friday will be the most important data this week. Analysts are expecting the worst from most of the data. Any surprises in the data showing the beginning of economic recovery will likely result in mortgage interest rate volatility.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Personal Income and Outlays	Monday, March 2, 8:30 am, et	Income down 0.3%, Outlays up 0.3%	Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Construction Spending	Monday, March 2, 10:00 am, et	Down 1.5%	Low importance. An indication of economic strength. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates.
ISM Index	Monday, March 2, 10:00 am, et	34.0	Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment	Wednesday, March 4, 8:30 am, et	Down 600k	Important. A large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Fed "Beige Book"	Wednesday, March 4, 2:00 pm, et	None	Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
Revised Q4 Productivity	Thursday, March 5, 8:30 am, et	Up 1.6%	Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Factory Orders	Thursday, March 5, 10:00 am, et	Down 2.1%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A larger decrease may lead to lower rates.
Employment	Friday, March 6, 8:30 am, et	Down 7.9%, Payrolls -615k	Very important. An increase in unemployment or a large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.

WHY DATA IS IMPORTANT

One of the easiest and most important things to do when making a decision whether to float or lock a loan is knowing what data is going to be released. Economic releases are important because they provide a snapshot of a portion of the economy. Data is even more important in that it is often the cause of market volatility. Upcoming data events are readily available and there is no excuse not knowing what data will be released in the week ahead.

While an in depth understanding of an economic event can help a person make informed decisions, it is more important to have a rudimentary understanding of when an important piece of data will be released and what basic effect that data can have on the market. Understanding the nuances of a release does very little for a person if they are blindsided by not knowing when the release will occur. Accurately predicting how each and every release will come in is impossible.

Floating into important economic data can be very risky and can expose a person to huge market swings. Keep that in mind this week, as there is an abundance of significant data heading our way.

Mortgage Market in Review - 2/23/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 08:43:14 -0600

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices rose last week applying slight downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. Weakness in the equity markets helped bonds recover from losses seen earlier in the week. On Thursday the Dow Jones index closed at October 2002 levels. The Federal Reserve continued buying mortgage bonds with the purchase of about $20 billion from February 12 through February 18.

For the week, interest rates on government and conventional fell by about 1/4 of a discount point.

Consumer confidence data will set the tone for mortgage interest rates this week. The foreign demand for debt will once again play a dominant role in trading with another round of Treasury auctions. The Treasury is set to auction 97B in two, five and seven-year notes starting Tuesday.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Consumer Confidence	Tuesday, Feb. 24, 10:00 am, et	36.0	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
2-year Treasury Note Auction	Tuesday, Feb. 24, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Existing Home Sales	Wednesday, Feb. 25, 10:00 am, et	Up 1.4%	Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
5-year Treasury Note Auction	Wednesday, Feb. 25, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Durable Goods Orders	Thursday, Feb. 26, 8:30 am, et	Down 2.3%	Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
New Home Sales	Thursday, Feb. 26, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.6%	Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
7-year Treasury Note Auction	Thursday, Feb. 26, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q4 Preliminary GDP	Friday, Feb. 27, 8:30 am, et	Down 5.4%	Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Friday, Feb. 27, 10:00 am, et	56.5	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

PRELIMINARY GDP

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one the most important reports during any given quarter. GDP is a measure of US economic output and spending. The report is significant in that it provides investors, analysts, traders, and economists with a comprehensive report of the direction of the economy. In addition, it also influences the decisions of Federal Reserve policy makers, Congressional budget employees, and corporate financial planners.

GDP is the sum total of goods and services produced by the United States. The initial report is often based on incomplete data. Therefore, additional revisions are released over the following two months. There are often substantial differences between the initial release and the revisions. The mortgage-backed security market generally responds favorably to weaker GDP growth. The preliminary fourth quarter gross domestic product data this week has the potential to move mortgage interest rates. Be cautious.

Mortgage Market Commentary - 2/6/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 08:42:50 -0600

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing interest rates slightly higher. Governments across the globe continued to battle the credit crisis and economic instability. Billions of dollars of debt offerings by the US Treasury continued to be announced. Unfortunately, the additional supply caused bond prices in general to fall and rates to rise the middle of the week. Record weekly jobless claims, weak factory orders, and strong productivity data released Thursday provided much-needed boost for mortgage bonds. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 1/8 of a discount point.

The retail sales data Thursday will be the most important event this week. The Treasury will auction 3-year, 10-year and 30-year notes and bonds starting Tuesday. The additional supply may pressure rates.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Trade Data	Wednesday, Feb. 11, 8:30 am, et	$37 billion deficit	Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims	Thursday, Feb. 12, 8:30 am, et	585,000	Moderately important. A measure of unemployment. An increase in jobless claims may bring lower rates.
Retail Sales	Thursday, Feb. 12, 8:30 am, et	Down 0.3%	Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Business Inventories	Thursday, Feb. 12, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.6%	Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. A significantly larger increase may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Friday, Feb. 13, 10:00 am, et	61.5	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

TRADE DATA

In the distant past the US economy tended to be viewed as relatively unaffected by economic activity in other countries. However, increased trades with other countries and an increased reliance on foreign purchases of US debt have generated a market awareness of trade-related issues. The exchange rate of the dollar and foreign trade flows are interrelated. One must buy dollars to purchase US exports, and sell dollars to buy imports. Likewise, foreign investment in US debt requires the purchase of US dollars, and is thus affected by exchange rates.

Each month the Commerce Department gathers an enormous amount of detailed data on exports and imports. The data is broken between goods and services trade. The overall trade balance is the dollar difference between US exports and imports on a seasonally adjusted basis. The report also highlights trade flows between the US and various partners. Since the mid-1970's, US imports of consumer and capital goods have exceeded exports, so a merchandise trade deficit has existed. The US has always maintained a service trade surplus, and because this surplus is not enough to offset the merchandise trade deficit, a net export deficit has resulted.

Due to the overwhelming amount of data considered, trade is difficult to forecast, and can present surprises. For a variety of reasons, the financial markets will often be unaffected by surprises in trade data. However, the data still has the ability to cause mortgage interest rate volatility.

A higher than expected trade deficit could hurt gross domestic product estimates. Lower growth expectations have historically caused stocks to fall and bonds to rise.

Keep in mind that market conditions as of late have been choppy and unpredictable. Any future data releases showing a rebound in the economy could lead to mortgage interest rate volatility, so lower rates are not a given. A cautious approach to float decisions should be taken.

Mortgage Market in Review - 2/2/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 10:30:18 -0600

Mortgage Market 2/2/2009

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing rates considerably higher. The data the first portion of the week came in as a surprise with existing home sales and Leading Economic Indicators both stronger than expected. The majority of the other data pointed toward continued economic weakness. New home sales fell a record 14.7%. The Fed left rates unchanged as expected but bonds fell sharply following the announcement. Uncertainty dominated trading. The Fed bought $16.8 billion of mortgage bonds between January 22nd and the 28th but the purchases did little to help rates improve. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 7/8 of a discount point.

The employment report Friday will be the most important event this week. The other data releases may also result in mortgage interest rate volatility.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Personal Income and Outlays	Monday, Feb. 2, 8:30 am, et	Down 0.4%, Down 0.9%	Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Construction Spending	Monday, Feb. 2, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.9%	Low importance. An indication of economic strength. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates.
ISM Index	Monday, Feb. 2, 10:00 am, et	32.0	Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. A large decline may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Preliminary Q4 Productivity	Thursday, Feb. 5, 8:30 am, et	Up 1.0%	Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Factory Orders	Thursday, Feb. 5, 10:00 am, et	Down 2.5%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A larger decrease may lead to lower rates.
Employment	Friday, Feb. 6, 8:30 am, et	Unemp. @ 7.4%, Payrolls -500k	Very important. An increase in unemployment or a larger decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Consumer Credit	Friday, Feb. 6, 3:00 pm, et	Down $1billion	Low importance. A significantly larger than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.

ISM

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), formerly the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM), releases the "Report on Business" on the first working day of each month. Part of this report is the "diffusion index," which tracks the economy's ups and downs fairly well.

In conducting this survey, the ISM questions purchasing executives from over 250 industrial companies compiling data on production, orders, commodity prices, inventories, vendor performance, and employment. Each of the respondents is asked to rank the categories as "up" or "down." Various weights are applied to the individual components to form the composite index.

A composite index reading of 50 can be thought of as a "swing point." A reading above 50 implies an increase in economic activity, while a reading below 50 indicates a decline. As a general rule of thumb, when the index approaches 60, investors begin to worry about an overheated economy. A slide below 40 suggests that recession is at hand.

The ISM report is difficult for economists to forecast because there is little data upon which to base an educated guess. Economists often look to regional Purchasing Managers' reports that are released prior to the full report, in a further effort to anticipate the results of the full report.

The ISM report has a large "surprise factor" and can often prompt a significant market reaction. Be cautious heading into the data this week.

Market in Review - 1/26/2009

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 07:58:36 -0600

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing rates higher. In an announcement earlier in the month, Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated the timing of a global economic recovery was "highly uncertain." This uncertainty was reinforced last week as the economic turmoil continued across the globe and Spain joined Greece to become the second Euro zone country to have their debt downgraded by Standards and Poor's. A lower debt rating increases the cost to borrow further aggravating the attempts to fund the massive bailouts. For the second week in a row, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 3/4 of a discount point.

The Fed meeting on Wednesday will be the most important event this week. Gross domestic product and employment cost index data Friday will also be important.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Existing Home Sales	Monday, Jan. 26, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.8%	Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates.
Leading Economic Indicators	Monday, Jan. 26, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.1%	Important. An indication of future economic activity. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Confidence	Tuesday, Jan. 27, 10:00 am, et	38.0	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
2-year Treasury Note Auction	Tuesday, Jan. 27, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns	Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2:15 pm, et	No change	Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Durable Goods Orders	Thursday, Jan. 29, 8:30 am, et	Down 1.5%	Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
New Home Sales	Thursday, Jan. 29, 10:00 am, et	Up 1.9%	Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. A decrease may lead to lower rates.
5-year Treasury Note Auction	Thursday, Jan. 29, 1:30 pm, et	None	Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q4 Advance GDP	Friday, Jan. 30, 8:30 am, et	Down 5.0%	Important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Friday, Jan. 30, 10:00 am, et	None	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q4 Employment Cost Index	Friday, Jan. 30, 10:00 am, et	Up 0.7%	Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

FUNDAMENTAL WEEK

The abundance of fundamental data this week provides a good opportunity for mortgages to improve. If the data shows weakness in the economy then it is possible for mortgage bonds to rally resulting in mortgage interest rate decreases. However, if the data shows that the economy is rebounding or any significant signs of inflation, mortgage bonds may fall pushing mortgage interest rates higher.

Market in Review - 12/15/2008

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 12:43:02 -0600

Mortgage News for 12/15/2008

On Wednesday morning, mortgages rates collapsed close to 5.125%.

Four notes on mortgage pricing. These super-low rates are limited to 740+ FICOs and 80% or less loan-to-value. Fannie and Freddie, despite 90 days in Federal hands, still maintain punitive FICO pricing. 695 FICOs have to pay a fee just to get 5.50%.

Second, the normal fee-versus-rate progression has been distorted for two weeks. Usually it's a bad idea to pay fees to get a lower rate (payback out at six years); however, a confused and fearful investment world, far removed from retailers' pricing interests and the "secondary market," wants to buy loans only at a discount. The result from time to time favors paying a fee even to refi.

Third: prior large-scale rate drops have quickly reversed under pressure from waves of refi rate locks. This time that wave is a ripple. Demand is huge -- desperate -- but availability has been crushed by fallen values, the total absence of "stated" and "no-doc" underwriting, piggyback-2nd lenders who will not subordinate to 1st-mortgage refis, too-tough pricing for investors, no market for fixed Jumbos, and the FICO hits above.

Fourth: despite diminished volume, it is enough to prevent another rapid rate drop.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Industrial Production	Monday, Dec. 15, 9:15 am, et	Down 0.5%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Capacity Utilization	Monday, Dec. 15, 9:15 am, et	75.9%	Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Price Index	Tuesday, Dec. 16, 8:30 am, et	Down 1.3%, Core up 0.1%	Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
Housing Starts	Tuesday, Dec. 16, 8:30 am, et	Down 7.7%	Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Larger than expected decreases may lead to lower rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns	Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2:15 pm, et	75 basis point cut	Important. Most expect the Fed to cut rates. Volatility will likely surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Leading Economic Indicators	Thursday, Dec. 18, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.5%	Important. An indication of future economic activity. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Philadelphia Fed Survey	Thursday, Dec. 18, 10:00 am, et	None	Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

FED MEETING

The United States central bank, the Federal Reserve, coordinates the borrowing and lending activities of federally chartered banks. The principal reason the Federal Reserve was created was to reduce severe financial crises. One way of accomplishing this goal is to control the amount of money that flows through the economy. By manipulating the US money supply, the Fed influences inflation, unemployment, and the level of US economic activity. The Fed has a variety of tools that it uses to control the money supply, but its chief policy tool is the manipulation of short-term interest rates.

All eyes will be focused on the Fed meeting Tuesday. Most analysts predict another rate cut as the economy continues to struggle. As of trading late last week, futures contracts showed a greater than 80% chance of a 75 basis point cut.

Keep in mind that a Fed rate cut does not automatically mean mortgage interest rates will improve. The Federal Reserve has direct control over the level of short-term interest rates. The Fed's influence over longer-term interest rates with rate cuts is less certain. However, the unprecedented recent direct purchasing of mortgage bonds is a strong effort to push longer-term rates lower as well.

Remember, rates are historically favorable. While there is a strong possibility rates could improve, there are no guarantees in these uncertain times. As a reminder, just a few months ago analysts overwhelmingly predicted gas prices would continue to rise. Conditions can change quickly.

Market in Review - 12/8/2008

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 11:19:07 -0600

Mortgage News for 12/8/2008

The loss of 533K jobs in Nov and an additional 80K jobs in Oct reported on Friday sent interest rates higher and a strong 249 point increase in the DJIA. It was already baked in the cake so what we got was a buy the rumor, sell the fact in the bond market and sell the rumor, buy the fact in the stock market. It is all about an overbought bond market and somewhat oversold stock market. Early this morning the bond and mortgage markets opened lower in price while the stock index futures were trading better, indicating a stronger open at 9:30. It isn't as confusing as it appears; the stock market remains a sell on rallies and the bond market a buy on price dips; has to run its course but both markets will return to their respective longer term trends once the corrections run out of steam.

The retail sales data Friday will be the most important release this week. Look for any additional moves by the Fed, the US Treasury, and legislative developments to also result in mortgage interest rate movements. This will be the last full week of data before the next Fed meeting.

This Weeks Economic Calander:

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Trade Data	Thursday, Dec. 11, 8:30 am, et	$54 billion deficit	Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
Producer Price Index	Friday, Dec. 12, 8:30 am, et	Down 1.8%, Core up 0.2%	Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
Retail Sales	Friday, Dec. 12, 8:30 am, et	Down 1.4%	Important. A measure of consumer demand. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Friday, Dec. 12, 10:00 am, et	58.0	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

4.5% RATES POSSIBLE?

The news is abuzz about the Treasury lowering home loan rates to 4.5% to stem the foreclosure crisis but details have been lacking. The Treasury Department stated it is looking for additional ways to help the struggling housing industry and believes lower rates are needed.

This idea is similar to the November 26th announcement from the Federal Reserve where they indicated the intent to purchase up to $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. In addition they would buy another $100 billion in direct debt issued by those firms. The November news caused bond prices to spike higher and forced mortgage rates lower. Just like any commodity, whenever tremendous buying interest exists, prices rise. Mortgage rates fell almost 1/2% in rate following the announcement. However, the following week market forces continued and rates spiked a bit higher from the recent lows.

It is important to remember that there are no details to the Treasury plan as of yet. The Federal Government does not directly dictate home loan rates. Rates are determined by price movements of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which compete for investor funds in the open market. The Treasury can buy mortgage bonds on the open market but remember that they are not the only entity buying and selling these instruments.

The Treasury is in a very tough position in trying to manipulate home loan rates. Creating a new Federal mortgage program could be very risky. How would rates be set, who would qualify, and can the funds be used for purchases and refinances are just some of the questions being asked. The other critical concern is implementing such a program without destroying the current mortgage securities market. Doing so could have the unintended consequence of causing additional economic turmoil.

Rates are not going to 4.5% with the wave of a wand by Hank Paulson or Ben Bernanke. As a matter of fact, the massive borrowing to fund the TARP program has a negative effect on rates. At this time, the announcement still leaves a lot of uncertainty. What we do know is that rates are at historic lows and house prices have moderated setting up a great scenario for people who need to refinance or are looking to buy a home. Waiting for rates to fall to 4.5% may leave people sorely disappointed.

Market in Review - December 1st, 2008

Mick Rothblott (Associated Bank) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 14:46:42 -0600

Mortgage News for 12/01/2008

WOW! What one week can do. The FED finally figured it out. Last week the 10 Yr Treasury Note droped in yeild like a "lead balloon" and mortgage prices followed. Last week the DJIA rallied 800 points driven by the Obama economic appointments and the $800B Fed injection to buy $600B in mortgages and $200B for credit, auto, and student loans.

Going to zero! The markets are increasingly expecting the Fed will take the Fed Funds rate to zero in 2009. The market is betting that the Fed Funds rate will be cut to 0.5% on Dec 16th at the end of the FOMC meeting (a cut of 50 basis points). If the federal funds rate falls to 0.5% and two-year Treasury note yields should follow, investors would realize an annualized return of 1.5%, but management fees would eat all of that and then some. Getting Treasury Rates so low should drive investors to mortgages as they will offer more attractive yeilds.

Is it time to refinance? The low on thirty year fixed rates reached about 5.50% just about one year ago. I expect the 30 year fixed rate will hit someware around 5.00% and may go eavn lower in January of 2009.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Construction Spending	Monday, Dec. 1, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.9%	Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
ISM Index	Monday, Dec. 1, 10:00 am, et	38.00	Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment	Wednesday, Dec. 3, 8:30 am, et	Jobs -173k	Important. A measure of employment. Weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Revised Q3 Productivity	Wednesday, Dec. 3, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.9%	Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed "Beige Book"	Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2:00 pm, et	None	Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
Factory Orders	Thursday, Dec. 4, 10:00 am, et	Down 2.7%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Employment	Friday, Dec. 5, 8:30 am, et	Jobs -300k Unemp @ 6.8%	Very important. An increase in unemployment or a large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Consumer Credit	Friday, Dec. 5, 3:00 pm, et	2.7B	Low importance. A significantly larger than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.