The last 30 days have been very busy in local real estate. The number of homes under contract in northwest Bergen has risen 24% from the same period last year, and is up 13% from 2006. These statistics are quite remarkable given the condition of the economy. One explanation is that buyers have been in "wait and see" mode for a long time and have decided that prices have come down enough to make buying attractive again. Another is that sellers have gotten the message and are willing to accept lower prices. However you interpret it, it's a great beginning to the fall market.
The Bergen Record and NorthJersey.com need to do their homework. For almost two years I've been publishing weekly sales data for all of Bergen County on my site at http://BuyingInBergen.com. Yet if you go to NorthJersey.com, they say their's is "the most up to date free site for home sales in Bergen..." Their data is 3-4 weeks old before it gets published. Mine is piping hot, published every Monday morning for the previous week. NorthJersey.com, please adjust your claim accordingly.
I'm sure a number of readers will have trouble believing the following statistics. This data flies in the face of everything we've been reading in the media for the last six months about falling real estate values. In defense of the credibility of these statistics, they are generated by the New Jersey MLS, through which all multiple listing sales in Bergen County are tracked. Here it is -- the average sold price in northwest Bergen County was 5.2% higher in the second quarter of 2008 than in the same period of 2007. The median sold price was 1.3% higher.
According to Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, the inventory of homes on the market stood at 11.2 months at the end of the first quarter, certainly an oversupply. In contrast, Bergen County inventory stood at 9.8 months, also an oversupply but closer to a balanced market. In northwest Bergen, inventory was even lower - 8.9 months. Four to six months is considered a balanced market.Home Inventory Level
In early May, Glen Rock Borough Council approved an ordinance governing the size of homes that can be built in the borough. Details can be found on the home page of Glen Rock's official website, http://GlenRockNJ.net. The new standards were adopted in an effort to keep properties from being overbuilt. The borough's planning board had been working on the resolution for the past two and a half years. Some of the new guidelines include:
- The total ground floor area of all structures shall not exceed 25% of the total area of the lot measured within 140 feet of the front property line.
- The minimum lot area of 11,200 square feet shall be measured within 140 feet of the front street property line.
- Height. No building shall exceed a maximum height of 32' from the average point of grade
Sales activity continues to show significant improvement over March levels, according to MLS data. In northwest Bergen County, including Ridgewood and surrounding boroughs, the number of homes under contract is down only 9.1% so far in May. And median sold prices, which were down 10.6% in April across Bergen, are only 4.9% lower than last May's values.
Average sold home prices in Bergen were down 5.4% from April of last year, while median sold prices were down 10.6%. In March, median prices were down only 1.0% from the previous year. On a positive note, however, homes under contract closed the month with marked improvement. March activity was down 33% from the previous year, while April was down only 6.1%. Sellers have recognized that local prices have come down, and buyers are taking advantage.
The first half of April has shown significant improvement in sales activity in Bergen County. While March homes under contract were down 33% from March of 2007, April contracts are down less than 1% over the same period last year. Northwest Bergen in particular showed similar improvement, with contracts down 30% last month but down only 6% in April.
This week we take a look at the number of homes on the market and
whether we have an oversupply situation. Below is a sampling of towns
on the west side of Bergen County representing a wide range of home
prices. Keep in mind that a balanced market is a four to six month
supply.
Months Supply
Fair
Lawn
6.6
Garfield
10.4
Glen
Rock
6.5
Ridgewood
4.9
Upper
Saddle River
13.9
Wyckoff
6.7
While the market has changed significantly over the last six months,
inventory levels have not. At the low end of the market, with the
exception of the very low end where foreclosures are high, the market
remains close to being balanced. But at the high end, there's an oversupply
situation. And the ever-popular Ridgewood, with a 4.9 month supply,
is perfectly balanced.
The local real estate market is performing very differently than the
national market. Locally, prices are more or less holding but sales
activity is suffering more. A strange concurrence.
Feb '08 vs Feb '07
Sales Activity
Home Prices
National
-23.8
-8.2
Bergen County
-33.7
0.3
Northwest Bergen
-45.6
-1.2
- Michael Shetler
* source: NJMLS and Realtor.org. Info deemed reliable
but not guaranteed. Includes single family homes, townhomes, co-ops
and condos.
Weekly observations and analytics on the real estate market in Bergen County, northern New Jersey. Special focus on Ridgewood and northwest Bergen. All facts and figures based on NJMLS. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed.