Phoenix Real Estate Blog

Get to Know Homes for Sale in McDowell Mountain Ranch, Arizona Zip Code 85255

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 18:22:52 -0700

There are 705 homes for sale in McDowell Mountain Ranch and the other neighborhoods in Phoenix zip code 85255. The North Scottsdale zip code 85255 is also home to the Troon Country Club, Desert Highlands Golf Club, Pinnacle Peak Country Club, DC Ranch, Grayhawk, Silverleaf, Ironwood Park, Pinnacle Peak Estates, Pinnacle Peak Heights, Pinnacle Paradise, Happy Valley Ranch, Pinnacle Peak Shadows, and Windsong neighborhoods. It’s one of my favorite North Scottsdale neighborhoods (in fact, it’s where I call home). So let’s get to know it a bit!

Homes for sale in McDowell Mountain Ranch statistics

First, to the McDowell Mountain Ranch real estate market. With a median sales price of $530,000, homes for sale in McDowell Mountain Ranch and other 85255 neighborhoods are definitely luxury homes. Not surprisingly, there aren’t a whole lot of bank-owned homes for sale in McDowell Mountain Ranch, but there are some – and some short sales in McDowell Mountain Ranch as well.

Source: The Cromford Report

McDowell Mountain Ranch neighborhood schools

While “How’s the market of homes for sale in McDowell Mountain Ranch?” is the first question my buyers ask, the second is often “How are the McDowell Mountain Ranch neighborhood schools?” Certainly living in a great school district makes sense for families with school-aged kids. But it also makes sense for people without kids – school districts can really affect the resale value of homes in McDowell Mountain Ranch (and everywhere else). Homes for sale in McDowell Mountain Ranch are in the Scottsdale Unified School District, which is overall one of the best school districts in Arizona. The schools in the 85255 zip codes are listed in the table below, along with their most current ranking from GreatSchools.

Things to do in and around the McDowell Mountain Ranch neighborhood

Okay, so there are homes for sale in McDowell Mountain Ranch at a range of price points for a range of lifestyles (from condos to townhomes to starter single-family homes to luxury homes). Plus, the schools in the McDowell Mountain Ranch neighborhood are among the most highly ranked in Scottsdale. But even on top of all that, a plethora of places to play really round out the McDowell Mountain Ranch neighborhood. Check out:

McDowell Mountain Regional Park – Nestled in the lower Verde River basin, the 21,099-acre park is a desert jewel in the northeast Valley. Elevations in the park rise to 3,000 feet along the western boundary at the base of the McDowell Mountains. Visitors enjoy a full program schedule, over 50 miles of multiuse trails, and spectacular views of the surrounding mountain ranges.
Pinnacle Peak – Hiking might not be the first thing you think when you hear Scottsdale, but a hike on the Pinnacle Peak Trail could change that. Besides hiking, there's picnicking, birding, horseback riding and rock climbing (permitted for experienced climbers in three areas of the park only).
Salt River Fields at Talking Stick – baseball spring training for the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies.

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Get to Know Homes for Sales in Desert Ridge, Arizona Zip Codes 85050 and 85054

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 00:15:20 -0700

As of today, there are 90 homes for sale in Desert Ridge. The Desert Ridge neighborhood in North Phoenix encompasses zip codes 85050 and 85054. It’s one of my favorite Phoenix neighborhoods (probably only second to my own, McDowell Mountain Ranch). So let’s get to know it a bit!

Homes for sale in Desert Ridge statistics

First, to the Desert Ridge real estate market. Homes for sale in Desert Ridge vary quite a bit – certainly between homes for sale in 85050 and homes for sale in 85054 and even within those zip codes. Among homes for sale in 85050, for example, 34 percent are bank-owned; among homes for sale in 85054 none are bank-owned. These bank-owned properties can often represent a huge value compared to the rest of the market, and can make a great buy for first-time home buyers.

Source: The Cromford Report

Desert Ridge neighborhood schools

While “How’s the market of homes for sale in Desert Ridge?” is the first question my buyers ask, the second is often “How are the Desert Ridge neighborhood schools?” Certainly living in a great school district makes sense for families with school-aged kids. But it also makes sense for people without kids – school districts can really affect the resale value of homes in Desert Ridge (and everywhere else). Homes for sale in Desert Ridge are in the Paradise Valley Unified School District, which is overall one of the best school districts in Arizona. The schools in the 85050 and 85054 zip codes are listed in the table below, along with their most current ranking from GreatSchools.

Things to do in and around the Desert Ridge neighborhood

Okay, so there are homes for sale in Desert Ridge at a range of price points for a range of lifestyles (from condos to townhomes to starter single-family homes to luxury homes). Plus, the schools in the Desert Ridge neighborhood are among the most highly ranked in Phoenix. But even on top of all that, a plethora of places to play really round out the Desert Ridge neighborhood. Check out:

Desert Ridge Marketplace – an outdoor mall with more than 100 retailer stores and restaurants, a Barnes & Noble, and an AMC movie theater. Plus a stage where they feature live music in the summer, and a couple of play areas where the local kiddos gather.
Musical Instrument Museum – the name says it all
Mayo Clinic – one of the best hospitals in the country, just down the street
City North – a range of high-end shops, restaurants, and some great nightlife (Blue Martini seems to be hopping every night of the week). Plus, every third Sunday, there’s a farmers’ market where local businesses sell their wares.

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Case-Shiller by the Numbers: Phoenix Real Estate April Update

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 18:20:17 -0700

S&P 500/Case-Shiller recently released its monthly home price report and the news for the Phoenix real estate market was decidedly gloomy. Just when we thought the real estate market was out in the sun for good, we’re back in the fog. Kind of reminds me of the weather we had here in Phoenix last week – the weekend before it was time to get out the swimsuit and hit the pool; last Saturday the mercury barely hit 55.

Okay, so let’s analyze what’s been going on in the Phoenix real estate market, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index released March 29, 2011 (and covering through January 2011).

Phoenix real estate market highlights

Phoenix real estate prices fell 1.5% in January 2011 compared to December 2010. That was a smaller decline than in December, when Phoenix real estate prices were down 1.7% compared to November.
Phoenix real estate prices are down year-over-year as well. In January, Phoenix real estate prices were down 9.1% over the previous year (that’s compared to 8.3% in December and 6.4% in November).

Phoenix Real Estate Market Home Prices in 2010/11

Source: S&P/Case-Shiller

The dotted line in the chart below is the trend line for Phoenix real estate prices since 1989 – it makes clear the fact that prices are rising over time, despite the real estate crash here. In other words, owning a Phoenix home is still a good investment.

Source: S&P/Case-Shiller

But there’s light ahead for Phoenix real estate

So what’s the take-home message? Recovery in the Phoenix real estate market has not yet taken hold. We’re still at risk for a double-dip. But some experts think that won’t happen. ASU professor Karl Guntermann, in fact, says that 2011 could be the turnaround year for the Phoenix real estate market. “With the state's economy gradually recovering and foreclosures apparently past their peak, there's a very good chance that 2011 will be a transition year in the housing market.”

What’s more, it is really important to remember that people move to Phoenix for many reasons other than the booming housing market. In fact, Kiplinger’s just listed Phoenix as one of the nation’s 11 “comeback cities.” According to the magazine, “It’s renewable energy that’s fueling growth in Phoenix. The growth in renewable energy creates jobs in construction, installation and manufacturing, as well as engineering, especially for professionals left hanging by a sluggish semiconductor sector. Aerospace, export industries and clean technologies are also gaining, while the lower cost of living in Arizona is attracting California entrepreneurs in social media and online businesses.”

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Phoenix real estate on realtor.com – If Home Prices are Down, Why is Consumer Confidence Up?

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 08:55:39 -0800

Check out the blog on realtor.com

I was featured on REALTOR.com® again - they posted a blog I wrote called "If Home Prices are Down, Why is Consumer Confidence Up?" Go read the full post, but the gist was this:

The S&P/Case-Shiller numbers were released on Tuesday and there was some disappointing news. Home prices are down in the majority of U.S. cities. However, a consumer confidence report was also released on Tuesday which indicated that not onle is confidence up, but so is spending. If Home Prices are Down, Why is Consumer Confidence Up? Read the blog to learn my take.

Also - quickly - I just want to solicit questions of your own. If there are questions that you would like answered or a topic you want to hear more about, let me know. I'm happy to address your questions personally or via this blog.

Also, I'm here to help if you're buying or selling a home - or just want to chat about the real estate market. So contact me. I look forward to speaking with you soon.

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

U-Haul data shows more people moving to Phoenix

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 12:47:38 -0800

Moving to Phoenix? Well, you're not alone. Data released last week from U-Haul International Inc. ranked Phoenix as the 14^th most popular moving destination in 2010. This is from their annual U-Haul National Migration Trend Report, "The 2010 Top 50 U.S. Destination Cities," which showed Phoenix holding the No. 14 spot from 2009. Tucson ranked 28th, up one place from 2009.

The full list is included below. The data was compiled from more than 1.4 million U-Haul truck transactions last year, all for destinations representing travel of more than 50 miles and considers every city in the country, regardless of size.

Why are so many people moving to Phoenix? Simple. It's a great place to live. We have solid companies that are hiring (in fact, U-Haul International is headquartered here), our economy is competitive, and our lifestyle is a winner: sunny days year-round as well as so much to do including golf, swimming and hiking.

If you are considering moving to Phoenix, contact me. I'm happy to help you find a home in the area.

Many people are moving to Phoenix because of the great weather and many golf courses.

January - December 2010

1.	HOUSTON, Texas	26.	SAINT LOUIS, Mo.
2.	ORLANDO, Fla.	27.	VAN NUYS, Calif.
3.	LAS VEGAS, Nev.	28.	TUCSON, Ariz.
4.	CHICAGO, Ill.	29.	INDIANAPOLIS, Ind.
5.	PORTLAND, Ore.	30.	BALTIMORE, Md.
6.	SAN ANTONIO, Texas	31.	ATLANTA, Ga.
7.	AUSTIN, Texas	32.	PLANO, Texas
8.	BROOKLYN , N.Y.	33.	BIRMINGHAM, Ala.
9.	SACRAMENTO, Calif.	34.	LONG BEACH, Calif.
10.	KANSAS CITY, Mo.	35.	SAN JOSE, Calif.
11.	PHILADELPHIA, Pa.	36.	SEATTLE, Wash.
12.	NEW YORK CITY, N.Y.	37.	SALT LAKE CITY, Utah
13.	SAN DIEGO, Calif.	38.	FORT WORTH, Texas
14.	PHOENIX, Ariz.	39.	ALBUQUERQUE, N.M.
15.	COLUMBUS, Ohio	40.	COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo.
16.	DALLAS, Texas	41.	WASHINGTON, D.C.
17.	LOS ANGELES, Calif.	42.	BOISE, Idaho
18.	QUEENS, N.Y.	43.	COLUMBIA, S.C.
19.	TAMPA, Fla.	44.	RALEIGH, N.C.
20.	JACKSONVILLE, Fla.	45.	MIAMI, Fla.
21.	MINNEAPOLIS, Minn.	46.	VICTORVILLE, Calf.
22.	SAN FRANCISCO, Calif.	47.	TULSA, Okla.
23.	CHARLOTTE, N.C.	48.	RENO, Nev.
24.	BRONX, N.Y.	49.	BAKERSFIELD, Calif.
25.	OKLAHOMA CITY, Okla.	50.	OAKLAND, Calif.

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Things to do in Phoenix: hike of the month is Go John/Overton Loop

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 12:50:38 -0800

As promised, I'm highlighting things to do in Phoenix including a hike of the month. This one is one of my favorites. Located in North Phoenix, it is a quiet trail that is great to bring the kids along with or go horseback riding on.

The Go John and Overton Trails are actually two separate trails that come together to create one large 6-mile loop. You can do just either one or the whole thing. Separately, the Go John Trail is a 4.8-mile loop, and the Overton Trail is a 2.1-mile loop.

Hiking is easily one of the local favorite things to do in Phoenix and this trail is a great example of why. The Go John Trail begins as an easy hike through the desert that gradually begins a moderate climb via long switchbacks. At about 4-miles, you come to the junction with the Overton Trail. Here, you can either complete the Go John Trail or you can continue to hike along the Overton Trail. I will say, there is more shade along the Go John trail if that is something of interest.

The Overton Trail, much like the Go John Trail, offers a moderate climb before the downhill. This trail is so quiet that you might forget that you are in the 5^th largest city in the nation. Yet, as the Overton Trail turns south, the sight of houses will remind you that you are - indeed - back in the city. The trail then descends toward a picnic area that has very nice ramadas where you can stop to catch your breath and have a drink of water.

As with any hike in the desert, pack lots of water. I also recommend using a Camelback water carrier so that your hands are free and available to take pictures. It's a very scenic hike.

Above all, enjoy the desert beauty. It is one of the best things to do in Phoenix as residents and visitors alike take in the stunning local flora. The Saguaro cacti, rough rocks, and landscape views are quite enchanting. Enjoy!

The stats:

Trailhead: Go John/Overton

Length: 6 miles roundtrip

Difficulty: Moderate

County Park: Cave Creek Regional Park

Directions to Trailhead:

From Phoenix, take Cave Creek Road north to the Carefree Highway then turn left. Turn right onto 32^nd Street and continue into the Cave Creek Recreational Area. There is a fee required to enter the park. Continue along the main park road. There is an access road for the Go John Trailhead on the left.

There are many wonderful things to do in Phoenix. But what really draws some of our retirees to the area is the beautiful landscape and outdoor activities: hiking included. If you are interested in buying a home in the Phoenix area, contact me. It's a great location - with many wonderful things to do in Phoenix - and I'm happy to help.

Many retirees also buy homes that are on golf courses - another one of the favorite things to do in Phoenix

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Understanding the Phoenix short sale process

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 12:47:33 -0800

Last year, I wrote a blog for realtor.com about the short sale process given that 2010 was being dubbed by the New York Times as the Year of the Short Sale. Much of the reasoning behind the title of the "Year of the Short Sale" is that - at the time - nearly 22 percent of homeowners were underwater on their home. With that many people underwater, how many options did they really have and the short sale process can definitely be appealing. And, according to Zillow, those numbers increased toward the end of the 2010 and currently around 27 percent of homeowners are now underwater.

So what is behind the short sale process?

By definition, real estate short sales are when a mortgage company or lender agrees to allow the homeowner to sell their home for less than what is currently owed on it. Rather than face foreclosure or bankruptcy, the short sale process allows the homeowner to get out of a financial obligation that could be such that their home value would never return to what was owed - while also allowing the bank to recoup some of the debt. This is where a real estate agent who understands the short sales process well can be of huge value, ensuring that your interests are represented during negotiations with the bank.

Trying to avoid the short sale process?

If you're trying to avoid the short sale process, homeowners have other options such as loan modifications, HUD counseling, or deed-in-lieu-of-foreclosure. Renegotiating loan terms can allow you to retain ownership of the home if that is something of interest. And many banks are interested in avoiding foreclosure however they can, especially in Arizona where we had the second highest rate of foreclosed home in the nation for 2010.

As always, I recommend using a trusted real estate expert who can help guide you through the short sale process. If you're considering buying, selling, or short selling a home, please contact me. I'm here to help.

The short sale process can help sell your home

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

New numbers regarding the Phoenix foreclosure market

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 12:12:55 -0800

This data came from RealtyTrac's U.S. Foreclosure Market Report for January 2011. RealtyTrac is a firm that tracks warning signs of foreclosures such as notices for defaults, scheduled home auctions, and home repossessions. The full press release can be found here.

They reported that the number of homes receiving an initial default notice fell 1 percent last month from December 2010 and dropped 27 percent from January of last year. That being said, foreclosure filings - which is defined as including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions - has slightly different numbers. The foreclosure filings saw a 1 percent increase from the previous month but a 17 percent decrease from January 2010.

A statement made by James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, in their official press release read that "We've now seen three straight months with fewer than 300,000 properties receiving foreclosure filings, following 20 straight months where the total exceeded 300,000." Essentially, all of these numbers are welcome news but they also may be a bit misleading. It is believed that foreclosure filings are decreasing due to the backlog of filings at banks - not that more people are avoiding foreclosures altogether.

What is happening with the Phoenix foreclosure market?

It's not great news. At a state level, Arizona posted the second-highest foreclosure rate (after Nevada and before California) in the nation. Our foreclosure activity increased 16 percent from December 2010 but - the good news is - foreclosures are down 25 percent year-over-year (from January 2010).

As a metro, the amount of Phoenix foreclosure filings put us as the eigth highest area in the nation.

So this new report offers mixed news: foreclosure filings are down but it looks like they are going to continue . . . and the Phoenix foreclosure market is down significantly but we're still leading the nation.

Overall, I think this report doesn't offer anything significantly different than what we already knew: it's going to take some time for the foreclosure filing to cycle through the market . . . and Phoenix remains a really good buy with many "deals" to be had.

If you are considering buying a Phoenix foreclosure, contact me. I have a lot of experience with bank-owned properties and am here to help.

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Phoenix Housing Report from ARMLS – February 2011

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 12:09:50 -0800

Phoenix Housing Report - February 2011 from ARMLS

This is a copy of the ARMLS STAT report and is reprinted here with permission. The new year, buoyed with optimism from the December sales figures, was put back into its place with a disappointing 22% decline in January sales. The Phoenix housing report shows the total number of closed sales in January was 6,541 compared to December's 8,401. The natural sales decline from December to January has occurred every year since December 2001. This Dec/Jan drop is the second highest of the decade, surpassed only by the Dec 2008-Jan 2009 decline of 24.4%. However, the January figure is only a small deviation from November. If we consider that December was an anomaly driven by seasonal pressure to close by December 31st, then the market simply picked up where it left off in November. In any event, the Valley continues to struggle.

SALES Year over Year

Sales for January at 6,541 rose 13% over January 2010 (5,789). Both December 2010 and January 2011 sales figures are higher than their preceding year's counterpart. While it is tempting to project that this is as an indication of a better year to come, it mimics the robust increase (22.1%) of January 2010 over 2009, which disappointed us with year over year declines from May through November. It is, however, the second highest since 2001. Total yearly sales have been trending upward starting in 2006. With the exception of the record high total sales set in 2004 and 2005 (98,922 and 104,725), the total sales for 2009 and 2010 represent the 3rd and 4th highest of the decade (93,308 and 91,972). The positive year over year sales figure for this Phoenix housing report for January though is a good start, and fuels optimism that 2011 will follow the total yearly sales patterns of 2009 and 2010 .

NEW INVENTORY

Total new listings are up 30.1% in January to 12,290. This is a reversal of the declining trend in new inventory from other Phoenix housing reports like September through December, but is typical of every January of the decade. While the increase in January's new inventory is no surprise, its 30.1% is well below the decade's average January rise of 63.74%.

TOTAL INVENTORY

Total inventory remained relatively stable with only a 1% increase to 42,881. Total inventory has fluctuated within a narrow range between 41,317 and 45,353 for the last twelve months, with the average monthly inventory of 43,202. Total inventory is a key component of supply and demand.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI)

Not surprisingly, the MSI for January in this Phoenix housing report jumped to 6.56 from December's 5.05, an aberration when considering that MSI has hovered above six months since July. While a market-wide MSI is not reflective of months supply in smaller niche markets, it is a barometer of the overall supply and demand balance and health of the market. At 6.56 we are clearly in a Buyer's market. Such conditions do not support any significant rise in the average or median sales prices. Until total inventory declines and sales rise, we can expect that the market will remain favorable toward Buyers.

NEW LIST PRICES

New list prices in this Phoenix housing report took a jump in both the average and median in January. The average new list price rose 7% from December's $191,000 to $204,300. The median new list price rose 5.8% from December's $118,000 to $124,900. Unfortunately rises in new list prices do not directly correlate with increases in actual sales prices. However, if December's numbers were an anomaly driven by seasonal Seller reticence, leaving only new Sellers who must sell to drive the new list prices, then January figures are close to where the market left off in November .

SALES PRICES

The median sales price for January held stable at $110,000, only a .2% decline from December's median of $110,200. The average sales price fell by 2.1% to $157,000 from $160,400. Downward pressure on prices continues in the current buyer's market, as a result of high inventory levels and the disproportionate percentage of distressed sales in the overall sales count. The looming high levels of foreclosures pending will prolong the downward pressure.

THE ARMLS PENDING PRICE INDEX^TM

Pending properties in the MLS system continue to be reliable predictors of median and av-erage pricing ninety days into the future. The ARMLS Pending Price Index (PPI^TM) is a metric unique to ARMLS since only ARMLS possesses sales price data on properties under contract awaiting future closing.\ Last month the PPI predicted $159,400 as the average sales price for January. The actual figure fell short of the prediction by 1.51%, with January's average sales price coming in at $157,000. This follows a steady 12.73% ($22,900) decline in average sales price that started with June's twelve month high of $179,900, and culminated in January at $157,000. The predictions for the average sales price for February, March and April are $161,000, $157,000 and $164,000 respectively, a pattern reminiscent of a fish flopping around the bottom of the boat trying desperately to get over the gunwale. The median sales price predicted by the PPI last month was $115,000, but the actual figure fell 4.35% lower to $110,000. This may be reflective of the large percentage of distressed properties in the pending property pool exerting downward pressure on the market's me-dian price. PPI's predictions for median sales price for February, March and April are $114,000, $113,000 and $110,000 respectively.

FORECLOSURES PENDING

Foreclosures pending fell to 40,461 from the previous month's 41,485, continuing on a steady, fourteen month downward trend that marked its high point in November 2009 at 50,568, and ended this month 20% lower (a drop of 10,107). These levels though remain very high, and since they are not yet on the market, they are a reliable harbinger of con-tinued downward pricing pressure well into the future. Foreclosures pending must wend their way through the system before they enter the marketplace and are absorbed as new sales.

LENDER OWNED SALES

Lender owned sales fell 23.37% from December's 4,061 to January's 3,112. This current Phoenix housing report figure is in line with the twelve month average of 3,170. Lender Owned Sales in January accounted for 47.6% of total sales.

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

Average Days on Market dropped two days from December's 115 days to 113 in January, making December and January the highest DOM in the last twelve months. Days on mar-ket will typically be lengthened in a Buyer's market, as the consequence of large inven-tory and a smaller Buyer pool.

DISTRESSED SALES

Distressed sales are a composite of closed Short Sales and sales of Lender Own Proper-ties. They exert a disproportionate pressure on the supply and demand balance and negatively affect average and median prices of both listings and sales. Of the 6,541 total sales in January, 70.2% (4,591) were distressed. Closed Short Sales of 1,479 accounted for 22.61% of total sales and 32.22% of all distressed sales, as Lender Owned Sales con-tinued to dominate the market.

Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) COMMENTARY on this Phoenix Housing Report

This is a copy of the ARMLS STAT report and is reprinted here with permission.

The numbers for January are disappointing, yet they follow a very typical seasonal pattern: decrease in sales at the start of the year and increase in inventory as Sellers come back into the market after the holiday season. On the pricing front, the market seems to be engaged in the perfect storm: small Buyer pool, very large inventory, high foreclosures pending, and disproportionate percentage of distressed sales: all creating a greater Months Supply of Inventory and higher Days on Market. Like all storms there is no other strategy but to wait it out. The PPI shows that prices will continue flopping along the bottom, and the high numbers of foreclosures pending indicate that as the market glut of lender owned proper-ties are sold, there will be plenty more to take their place, for some time into the future.

Accompanying the disproportionate percentage of distressed sales is the discomforting reality that lenders, through their negotiation on short sales and liquidation of lender owned properties, exert undue influence on the Valley pricing. It is always an unhealthy phenomenon when any sector dominates a market, but 70.2% distressed sales is chronic pain and suffering. However, more short sale closings mean those properties don't go to foreclosure. That's good. More foreclosure sales means we are getting rid of them, albeit slowly. That's good. And the pending foreclosures are coming down which means fewer replacement lender owned listings. So an increase in the number of distressed sales may just be the medicine the market has to take for a while to help it on its way. Many economic indicators evidence that recovery has started. On the national level, the U.S. Commerce Department released an advance estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2010, indicating a 3.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, up from a third quarter growth rate of 2.6 percent.* The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the net change in unemployment in Q2 was 728,000, the first positive net employment change since the recession began in December 2007. In addi-tion, the national unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 9.4 percent in December. ** In Arizona, employment in most sector categories (manufacturing; wholesale and retail trade; transportation, warehousing and utilities; finance, insurance, real estate; professional and business services; education and health services; leisure and hospitality; non-farm) realized a month over month gain from No-vember to December 2010. The Phoenix Metropolitan Area (Maricopa and Pinal Counties) mirrors the same pattern. *** The essential ingredients to the Valley's real estate recovery have always been jobs and net migration. In Maricopa and Pinal counties, the December unemployment rate declined for the sixth month in a row to 8.41%, compared to the state rate of 9.14%. The decline, coupled with the employment growth in many sectors, is a healthy sign. Unfortunately, population increase from 2008 to 2009 was only .9%, and 2010 figures may be even lower, given the loss of residents due to immigration issues. *** A new resident considering a relocation to the Valley will look for affordable housing, financing and a job. The first two we have covered, and we are creeping in the right direction on the third. * http://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2011/01/28/statement-us-commerce-secretary-gary-locke-advance-estimate-gdp-fourt ** http://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm#major *** EBR Database Online Copyright ARMLS February 2011. Reprinted with permisson.

Phoenix Home Values Report - February 2011

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 13:25:34 -0800

Phoenix Home Values Report - February 2011

The numbers for January are in and well, they are mixed. Pricing is still soft, but the experts are saying there are many indicators that there are better times coming very soon. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service or ARMLS released their STAT report today and you can click here to read it.

Phoenix home values for homes coming on the market in January 2011 increased by nearly 7%. But don't get too excited because the median sales price for January fell by .2% to $110,000 compared to December. The average sold price in January fell by 2.1% to $157,000 from $160,400. Downward pressure on prices is being blamed on the high inventory levels in the market and the number of short or distressed sales.

In terms of the number of sales in January, they dropped by nearly 22% from December. But there is good news here! The number of sales is actually UP 15.0% compared to January 2010.

Pending sales are also on the rise which should translate into a reduction in inventory. Sales rose 19.4% from January 1 to February 1, an unusually large increase suggesting strengthening demand and a busy buying season ahead. The total of 10,565 is 0.8% lower than 2010 and experts blame that reduction on the fact that there was a tax credit being offered last year at this time.

Another sign Phoenix home values maybe rising soon is that active listings declined between January 1 and February 1 by 1.8%. Sellers should be happy with this number because a lower supply means higher demand and price increases.

So the bottom line is that there are still plenty of great values out there, especially for the buy and hold investor or for those looking to owner occupy a property. For more a more detailed look at the numbers, please click here for the ARMLS STAT report.

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

New ASU report confirms it’s still a great time to buy a Phoenix home for sale

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 10:50:20 -0800

According to a new report from Arizona State University, it's a great time to buy a Phoenix home for sale. The report from ASU's W. P. Carey School of Business was released last week, and it confirms "a fifth straight month of year-over-year price declines in the market," but also asserts that "change is on the way." A change for the good, that is.

The Phoenix home for sale numbers come from the Arizona State University-Repeat Sales Index (ASU-RSI), which I blog about monthly. The study measures annual changes of repeat sales on average Phoenix-area home prices. Essentially, the authors are comparing the prices of a single Phoenix home for sale against itself at different points in time so they are - literally - measuring apples to apples. It's a good study.

The press release quoted Professor Karl Guntermann, the Fred E. Taylor Professor of Real Estate, who authored the report as saying, "with the economy gradually recovering, employment improving, and the foreclosure problem apparently past its peak, odds are good 2011 will be a transition year in the Phoenix-area housing market."

Year-over-year changes in the price of a Phoenix home for sale

Unfortunately, though, Guntermann estimates an 8-percent decline in the price of the average Phoenix home for sale from December 2009 to December 2010. There was a 7-percent decline from November 2009 to November 2010 and a 6-percent fall from October to October. However, before August of last year, the last time there was a decline in the average price of a Phoenix home for sale was March 2010. We had a spring and summer of flat or positive change in home prices. Over the span of 2010, there were traditional times of increases and decreases in Phoenix home prices, which isn't entirely unusual. The winter is, seasonally, a slow time for home sales and we may see additional declines in the coming months as the winter continues and foreclosures continue to cycle through the market.

Speaking of foreclosures, it is worthy of mention that the non-foreclosure median price of a Phoenix home for sale in December 2010 was $149,000 compared to a November figure of $155,000 and October's at $148,000. This shows the influence of foreclosures on the market as the overall median price for home sales (with foreclosures included) was $114,000 in December as compared to $122,000 in November and $125,000 in October. Without the foreclosures, the median price of a Phoenix home for sale is more stable and, obviously, much higher. We will see more foreclosures on the market this year, especially in the first half of 2011.

Buying a Phoenix home for sale still a good investment

Phoenix Home for Sale

This is okay and not a reason to panic. Why? Because buying a Phoenix home for sale continues to be a good long-term investment. Longer term than the last three months of negative data and longer than the uptick in foreclosures that the market is experiencing. And the overall economy of Phoenix is good (as well as being a desirable place to live). Therefore, investing in a Phoenix home for sale continues to make a lot of sense.

At risk of sounding like a broken record, I'll say it again: now is a great time to buy a Phoenix home for sale. Home prices are low, mortgage rates are low and Phoenix has a strong long-term economy. If you are interested in buying or selling a Phoenix home, contact me. I'm happy to help.

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Baby boomers consider homes in Phoenix AZ

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 10:34:31 -0800

There was a great piece in the Wall Street Journal today regarding the attraction for Baby Boomers and retirees to buy homes in Phoenix AZ and other sunbelt states. The article can be found here.

And though I just posted today how an image of how cold it has been here in Phoenix, we really can't complain about our weather. We have some of the best weather in the country which attracts many people to consider buying homes in Phoenix AZ. It is especially attractive to retirees who do not want to battle blizzards and snow storms at the age of 65-plus. And who can blame them? It's one thing to be digging snow out of your driveway at the age of 40 and another at age 75.

Additionally, though home prices have fallen nationally, they have fallen more significantly in areas such as Florida, Nevada, California and - yes - homes in Phoenix AZ are quite reasonably priced as well. Much of this has to do with the larger amount of foreclosures in the sunbelt states than our northern neighbors. However, the point is the same: it's an attractive area, particularly for those who live in colder climates. As the Wall Street Journal states, "for boomers with empty nests, and those nearing retirement, the idea of moving south may be back on the agenda."

But why are people considering buying homes in Phoenix AZ?

The Wall Street Journal went on to further their argument, pointing out that "tens of millions of baby boomers are completely unprepared for retirement." In fact, "according to the Employee Benefits Research Institute, a think tank, two-thirds of workers-and two-thirds of retirees-have saved less than $50,000 for their retirement." That means that retirees in Boston could sell their home (which has depreciated less than other areas), take that equity and consider retirement homes in Phoenix AZ. According to the Accra Cost of Living Index, homes in Phoenix, AZ cost less than half as much to live in as Manhattan, and far less, too, than places like Chicago and Boston.

Phoenix is already a mix of people who have migrated from all over the country. Another migration of baby boomers set to retire could be next. It is a great place to retire! Golf courses and sunshine abound.

If you are considering retirement homes in Phoenix AZ or looking to buy or sell real estate in the area, contact me. I'm happy to help.

Many retirees buy homes in Phoenix AZ that are on golf courses

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Experts: Value of Arizona Homes For Sale Showing Signs of Recovery

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 11:26:41 -0800

Experts: Value of Arizona Homes For Sale Showing Signs of Recovery So I was walking through my office today and came across a group of gitty agents. And what were they gitty about? Well it turns out that several economists are predicting signs of recovery in the Phoenix market for 2011. The Phoenix Business Journal is reporting that Karl Gunterman, Professor of Real Estate Finance at ASU is predicting that “the Phoenix area housing market will improve in 2011.” Meaning that the value of Arizona homes for sale is showing signs of recovery! In fact, I’ve heard the same thoughts from other notable ASU economists, and even Elliott Pollack, a leader in forecasting the Phoenix housing market. So what data are they looking at? Well, among other signs, it turns out that in December the median home price in Paradise Valley had remained stable for a twelfth consecutive month. It is also being reported that the median price for townhomes and condominiums has also stabilized over the last several months. So even though there could be some declines in the short run, the overall consensus is that the value of Arizona Homes for sale should show signs of recovery beginning in the third quarter. But for those calling for declines in the short run, I point them to the number of homes on the market… I just checked and saw that there are 30,588 single family detached listings currently in MLS. That is a decrease of 376 listings from last week, which is interesting since we normally see a swell in January. Wondering what is happening in your neighborhood? Then sign up for my exclusive "Market Snapshot". Visit my website: http://www.myphoenixmls.com/what-is-my-phoenix-home-worth/

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

4 bedroom Home For Sale in Mesa Arizona

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Sat, 29 Jan 2011 21:06:14 -0800

This 4 bedroom home for sale in Mesa Arizona is full of possibilities. It's not bank owned, it's not a short sale. In fact, you can move into this completely refurbished 4 bedroom home in Mesa Arizona TODAY!

Your new 4 bedroom home for sale in Mesa Arizona features new flooring, new paint, a new kitchen with granite tile counters, all new upgraded bathrooms, a den with a fireplace.. there’s even an outdoor sitting area and a pool.. So what are you waiting for? Imagine sitting by your new fireplace this holiday season! Come see the quality in a home you'll be proud to call your own!

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Survey: Owning a Home In Phoenix brings happiness

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 16:44:25 -0800

Survey: Owning a Home In Phoenix brings happiness As a real estate professional and as someone who has invested in Phoenix real estate market, I am always reminding my readers that owning a home is a great idea...no matter the market. Well it turns out that a substantial majority of both home owners and current renters agree that owning a home in Phoenix or any nearly any other major US city is a smart decision over the long term. That’s according to the results released this week of a National Association of Realtors® survey of 3,793 adults conducted online by Harris Interactive. The American Attitudes About Homeownership survey found that in today’s challenging economy, 95 percent of home owners and 72 percent of renters believe that over a period of several years, it makes more sense to own a home. In addition, an overwhelming majority of home owners are happy with their decision to own a home – 93 percent of home owners surveyed would buy again despite the challenges we face today. Based on the calls I get, I would assume that those who own a home in Phoenix feel the same way. Click here to read the full report. I found it quite interesting that the survey also found that owning a home seems to make people happier. More than half of the home owners said that they are “very” or “extremely” satisfied with the overall quality of their family life. At the same time, only one-third of renters report the same levels of satisfaction. It is an interesting statistic and makes for not only good conversation for around the office, I guess it does show that what I am selling can be considered happiness. Who knew? As for obstacles to owning a home in Phoenix or anywhere else, worries about job security and creditworthiness seem to top the list. I didn’t think that is surprising in today’s economy. In fact, among renters who are very or extremely likely to own a home in the future, three out of five consider confidence in job security and creditworthiness to be an obstacle. If you are among those who are thinking of making a move, or owning a home in Phoenix, let’s chat. I have a team of experts just a phone call away who can help you with credit issues and whatever else you might need. I wish I could help with the job market but, as someone once said, that is above my pay grade...

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Don't rent an apartment - buy a home in Phoenix

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 17:16:12 -0800

Don't rent an apartment - buy a home in Phoenix Trulia, a top site for homebuyers, sellers and renters, says don't rent an apartment, buy a home in Phoenix instead. In data released yesterday, the site says that it’s cheaper to buy a home than to rent an apartment or home in 72 percent of major American cities – including Phoenix. The full press release can be found on trulia. Trulia’s data is based on reviewing the expense of buying a home versus renting a home in Phoenix and 49 other top major metros. Their findings show that it is more affordable to buy a home than to rent an apartment when the median home price is less than 15 times the current median annual rent. In Trulia’s analysis, that would be a price/rent ratio of 15, meaning it would take 15 years or less of stable rent payments to cover the purchase price of a house. The lower the ratio, the less time it would take to cover the purchase price. Make sense? Phoenix homes for sale came in with a price/rent ration of 8, well below the threshold of when it is less expensive to buy than to rent. So Phoenix real estate is resting comfortably in the “buy buy buy” category. Some of this has to do with home prices declining but not entirely. It’s also because rents tend to rise in areas that have a solid amount of foreclosures in their inventory – which Phoenix still does. Therefore, this data proves what we already knew was going on in Phoenix: Don't rent an apartment, buy a home in Phoenix because Phoenix home prices are essentially holding steady with slight up and down variations while rents are increasing. The metropolitan areas on the list with very high price/rent ratios were New York (at 31); Seattle, Washington (24); Kansas City, Missouri (24); and San Francisco, California, (21). Though there are many reasons to buy a home regardless of timing the market or its affordability versus renting, these areas will take a bit longer before buying makes good financial sense. And, likewise, I do not recommend that homebuyers run out and buy a house just because it is less expensive than renting. The decision to buy is personal and needs to meet your individual needs. That being said, if you are considering purchasing a home, now is a great time financially. And if you’re an investor, the time is fantastic. Don't rent an apartment, buy a home in Phoenix. Be sure to contact me, I’m happy to help navigate the large area and the sizeable inventory. Below are the top 10 metro areas for renting and for buying, according to Trulia’s research.

Top 10 Cities to Buy vs. Rent

Rank	City	State	Price:Rent Ratio
1.	Miami	FL	6
2.	Las Vegas	NV	6
3.	Arlington	TX	7
4.	Mesa	AZ	8
5.	Phoenix	AZ	8
6.	Jacksonville	FL	8
7.	Sacramento	CA	10
8.	San Antonio	TX	11
9.	Fresno	CA	11
10.	El Paso	TX	11

Top 10 Cities to Rent vs. Buy

Rank	City	State	Price:Rent Ratio
1.	New York	NY	31
2.	Seattle	WA	24
3.	Kansas City	MO	21
4.	San Francisco	CA	21
5.	Memphis	TN	20
6.	Los Angeles	CA	20
7.	Fort Worth	TX	19
8.	Oakland	CA	18
9.	Portland	OR	18
10.	Albuquerque	NM	18

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Home sales up! Still a great time to buy a Phoenix home

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 10:08:01 -0800

Existing (or non-new construction) homes sales increased 12.3 percent in December 2010, coming in well above most analysts' estimates and marking growth in five of the final six months of last year. This is according to data released today by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The full press release can be found here.

According to the release "existing home sales rose 12.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million in December from an upwardly revised 4.70 million in November, but remain 2.9 percent below the 5.44 million pace in December 2009."

These numbers offer solid, data-based support that sales are on the upward trend. December was a great finish to 2010 which was full of some unusual real estate industry activity such as the homeowner's credit which expired in April, insanely low mortgage rates and the foreclosure freeze. What a year! Analysts anticipate that this upward trend will continue as job growth gains traction and more people opt for homeownership due to continued low mortgage rates and overall affordability.

NAR also reported that "the national median existing-home price for all housing types was $168,800 in December, which is 1 percent below December 2009." At the same time, "distressed homes rose to a 36 percent market share in December." Given the increase in distressed properties, it is actually quite surprising that home prices only decreased by 1 percent. Distressed home are typically discounted by 10 to 15 percent relative to traditional homes. Therefore, it is more likely that we are experiencing a stable flat trend with home prices. Short sales and foreclosures will continue to impact numbers into 2011 - just something to be aware of.

Other interesting tidbits from NAR's findings:

In December,

Investors accounted for 20 percent of transactions
All-cash sales were at 29 percent up from 22 percent a year ago
Single-family home sales jumped 11.8 percent
Existing condominium and co-op sales surged 16.4
Existing-home sales in the West surged 16.7 percent

Read more about "Home sales up! Still a great time to buy a Phoenix home," at MyPhoenixmls.com

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Phoenix real estate update: less homes on the local market

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 10:02:11 -0800

The Arizona Republic reported today that "the number of homes for sale in metro Phoenix is declining, a sign that the housing market could start to recover this year."

The full article can be found here but the gist is this:

The number of Phoenix homes for sale (as reported by the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service) dropped in December by almost 3,000 to 42,500. Why is this significant? Because real estate is much like many business equations in that the health of the market is based on supply and demand. With an over supply of homes (which we have experienced because of the many short sales and foreclosures on the market), home values decrease. Period. In order to continue on the road to stabilization in the real estate market and for home prices to increase, the balance between supply and demand needs to be more even.

There is still a concern that there will be many short sale and foreclosure sales this year, which will then influence home prices and other elements of the market. It is true that the numbers predict many foreclosures to be cycled through the market. In fact, "lender-owned home sales climbed to 48 percent of all home sales in December." While there is true that there is a large supply of bank-owned properties, cycling them through and moving past the dip will only be better for the real estate market in the long-term. And due to the lower supply of homes on the market and the influx of real estate investors in the Phoenix area, the bank-owned properties are selling quickly. Therefore, this really is just a temporary influencer in the market.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Phoenix market continues to be a good long-term investment. While mortgage rates are low and home prices competitive, now is a great time to buy. And with the overall health of the Phoenix economy good, the local real estate market continues to look promising for investors and single-home residents alike. If you are considering buying or selling a Phoenix property (whether it be a short sale, foreclosure, or other), contact me. I'm here to help.

Read more about "Phoenix real estate update: less homes on the local market," at MyPhoenixmls.com

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

ARMLS: Phoenix Real Estate Market Showing Momentum

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Mon, 17 Jan 2011 12:27:58 -0800

Today I want to share with you this news that just came out from the local MLS.

For all of you who think the market is dead and nothing is moving.. guess what.. you might want to think again.

It turns out that in the last thirty days.. which includes the holidays, more than 20% of those homes listed for sale in the Phoenix area went pending.. 20%!.. That's a lot. In Scottsdale, the number was nearly 15% and in Tempe, the number is nearly 17%. The experts call that the "absorption rate" and here's a chart of that rate for the last 30 days from across the valley:

To read more about "ARMLS: Phoenix Real Estate Market Showing Momentum," and see Chart visit MyPhoenixmls.com

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Phoenix real estate market ranks high on online searches

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Mon, 17 Jan 2011 12:22:57 -0800

This week, Realtor.com released their top 10 most searched real estate markets of 2010.

Looking back at 2010, we saw highs and lows in response to tax credits, interest rates reach historic lows, and an increased interest in buying real estate for investment purposes. There was an extraordinary amount of search traffic on Realtor.com, which was also the no. 1 most visited real estate Web site in 2010. Therefore, this snapshot has some real weight behind it. And the top ten most searched markets were (in order of most search activity to least) . . . drumroll . . . Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Orlando, San Antonio, Miami, Phoenix, San Diego, Austin, Chicago and Tampa. Yup, Phoenix was the sixth most searched real estate market in the nation.

Realtor.com compiled the top 10 list based on the number of visitors that viewed properties in each Metro Service Area (MSA) in the United States from January 2010 to December 2010 on Realtor.com.

Realtor.com's press release offered this recap and analysis: In early 2010, home sales and prices rose throughout the country faster than they had for several years. This was largely in response to the Federal home buyer tax credit for first-time and repeat buyers. After the Federal home buyer tax credit expired at the end of April 2010, sales dipped throughout the country in summer and fall 2010 - even though mortgage rates remained low and dropped below 4 percent in the fall. List prices continued to fluctuate in response to sales and foreclosures trends throughout 2010. Despite changing market conditions in 2010, the nation's top search destinations remained remarkably stable and focused on the sunshine states of California, Nevada, Florida, Texas and Arizona.

Read more about "Phoenix real estate market ranks high on online searches," at MyPhoenixmls.com

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Top predictions for mortgage trends in 2011: it will continue to be a good time to buy a Phoenix home

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 21:08:51 -0800

There are many real estate experts and analysts making varying predictions on different segments of the industry for 2011. Looking around, here are three predictions in relation to mortgages that I have found to be most consistent among analysts.

1. Mortgage rates will slowly rise

This has already started happening but the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predicts that mortgage rates will rise slightly in 2011, hovering around 5 percent. They think rates may increase to about 6 percent in 2012.

True, mortgage rates have been in the 4 percent range this year so this will be an increase. But not by much and we were really spoiled this past year. A 5 percent mortgage rate is still historically low and makes buying a home incredibly affordable and a great investment.

2. More mortgages will be written for home purchase than for refinancing

Most homeowners who were able to refinance, already have. In fact, refinancing activity accounted for about 80 percent of all mortgages written in 2010. Therefore, this segment of the market has decreased significantly and will continue to decrease. In fact, the prediction for 2011 is that mortgages being written for refinancing purposes will drop below 40 percent. Meanwhile, more mortgages will be written for an actual home purchase. The MBA predicts that stabilizing home prices and modest home sales incrases will - in turn - become the larger portion of mortgage activity.

3. Jumbo loan mortgages will be more popular - as will no mortgages!

Just in the last few months, mortgage rates for jumbo loans (loans over $417,000 in most housing markets and above $729,750 in high-cost housing markets) have decreased. Analysts predict that this will likely spur refinancing applications and purchase applications for the high-end housing market.

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

New Year’s Resolutions? How about becoming a Phoenix homeowner? It’s better to buy than to rent in the Phoenix market . . . and will be all year long.

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 10:15:50 -0800

The topic of buying versus renting comes up fairly frequently in the real estate market, especially the past couple of years as the sways of the market have people analyzing their options and concerned about their investments (and rightfully so). If there is no emotion in your decision to buy a home or not - strictly looking at the numbers - it is advantageous to buy a Phoenix home rather than rent. And it will continue to be this way for some time.

Fortune magazine recently had an article "Rent vs. own ratio to flip in 2011?" The premise of the article is that - according to the latest data from Moody's Analytics - it makes more financial sense to rent than to buy in 39 of the 54 metropolitan U.S. cities that were reviewed. However, Moody's Analytics and Fortune magazine expect that to change this year with many more metros becoming great prospective sites for buying and investing. Here in Phoenix, we're already there as one of the 15 metros where it is more lucrative to buy than to rent. Fortune's article featured Moody's Analytics' price-rent ratio for third quarter of 2010. As a general rule of thumb, they advise that it is better to buy when the ratio is below 15 and rent when it's above 20. If it's between 15 and 20, they recommend leaning toward renting. The Phoenix ratio was calculated to be 12.35 - definitely in the buy category.

This article came on the heels of a Phoenix-based report that Fletcher Wilcox - from Grand Canyon Title Agency - recently sent to me. His report which looked specifically at the Phoenix Metro area is titled "Should You Rent or Buy a Single Family Home?" and it actually spells it out: why it's cheaper to buy than to rent in the Phoenix area.

He reviewed the average single family home rental rate ($1,302/month) with the average single family home purchase price ($171,500) for the month of November 2010 in the greater Phoenix area. Then has asked the question: "If a monthly rental payment of $1,302 turned into a mortgage payment, would $1,302 support the purchase of a $171,500 single family home?" Make sense?

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Phoenix real estate on Realtor.com – Strategic Defaults Are a Trend for Homeowners

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 10:11:29 -0800

I was featured on REALTOR.com® again - they posted a blog I wrote called "Strategic Defaults Are a Trend for Homeowners" Go read the full post, but the gist was this:

Strategic defaulting is a topic that I've blogged about frequently. Largely because it's timely, yes, but it is also fascinating in its complexity of mixing homeownership philosophies of: a) your home as an investment and/or b) your home as a "home."

Strategic defaulting is seen as somewhat controversial but I don't make any judgments on the matter. I can see both sides of the topic - and it's an interesting one. And, as always, I want to hear from you. What are your thoughts on strategic defaulting? Also, if there are questions that you would like answered or a topic you want to hear more about, let me know. I'm happy to address your questions personally or via this blog.

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Pending home sales up 3.5 percent; still a great time to buy a Phoenix home

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 12:26:44 -0800

According to an index released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the number of signed contracts to buy homes rose in November by 3.5 percent. This was the fourth increase since June 2010. Regionally, pending homes sales were up in the West (18.2 percent) and Northeast (1.8 percent), but down in the South (1.8 percent) and Midwest (4.2 percent).

A NAR spokesperson said that a third of the pending home sales most likely were purchases of foreclosures or short sales. This is consistent with home sales numbers all year long. And - as you know - since bank-owned and distressed properties are typically sold for much lower than market value, having a third of pending home sales being such sales will decrease home values in the short term.

And that brings me to another index that was released this week. Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index was released Tuesday and their data reported that home prices fell in October in all 20 of America's largest cities. This is not too surprising given that banks have recently begun to process foreclosures again so that inventory is making its way through the system.

Foreclosures are one of the challenges facing the real estate market in 2011, as is the overall health of the economy. When people are concerned about their job security, they tend not to make big purchases, such as a new home.

Read more about "Pending home sales up 3.5 percent; still a great time to buy a Phoenix home," at Myphoenixmls.com

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.

Bristol Palin becomes a Phoenix real estate owner

Bob Stahl (Keller Williams Arizona Realty) — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 09:56:43 -0800

Whether you agree with Sarah Palin's politics or not, you can't argue with the fact that the Palins have good business sense. They have done an exceedingly good job at finding business opportunities in book writing and publishing as well as the reality television circuit. And now, Bristol Palin has invested in the Phoenix real estate market. That's good business sense.

The Arizona Republic reported that Bristol Palin bought a five-bedroom home in Maricopa (the city, not the county) for a screaming deal of $172,000. Other reports had additional details about the home which is reported to be 3,900-square feet in the Cobblestone Farms community. The home was originally built in 2006 and purchased for $329,560. Like many homes in Maricopa - which has been cited nationally as an unfortunate example of the mortgage crisis - the house went into foreclosure. The home was most recently purchased (as an investment) in May of this year for $137,200. The out-of-state owners fixed it up and put it back on the market. Enter Bristol Palin.

I have been blogging about the great investment opportunities in Phoenix real estate - and this purchase is a good example. Mortgage rates are low, yes, but there are also some really good investment opportunities due to the foreclosures and short sales on the market which offer very competitive home prices. Palin got a great deal on her home. It's in a wonderful community that boasts a community pool as well as a park near a lake and date palms, among many other amenities. Maricopa was originally a farming community about 40 minutes south of Phoenix, in Pinal County. Only recently having been incorporated (in 2003), the city is growing tremendously. They cited about 45,000 residents last year, up from just over 1,000 in 2000.

Read more about "Bristol Palin becomes a Phoenix real estate owner," at MyPhonenixmls.com

I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com.