real estate analysis: Credit Challenge Society, lets fix it! - 10/18/10 11:00 PM
Back in March of 2009 I wrote " Credit Challenged Society", with all the foreclosures and shortsales and the like who would be left to buy. It is said that 25% of the houses are in some stage of foreclosure or not being paid as intended. The economy can not get traction with 25% of the people not viable consumers who can borrow.
The mortgage guidelines have to changed to take in account the foreclosures and shortsales that were market driven. I have been getting people who assets have been destroyed in the decline, however they are gainfully employed and have … (3 comments)
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real estate analysis: I am on the ledge and holding your baby, if I don't get money I will jump, said Mr. Banker - 12/28/08 10:50 PM
I commented on Paul Henderson's blog Paul Henderson (RE/MAX Professionals), the other day and Paul thought this was a great answer.
Banking Bailout
"The banking bailout was a basic handout, it doesn't direct the money to help the general welfare. The banks are using it for their own purposes and could give a care about everything else. They kind of said, I am on the ledge and holding your baby, if I don't get money I will jump. Sometimes we feel we should have grabbed the baby and pushed."
It was basic blackmail, give us money or we are all doomed! I am … (9 comments)
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real estate analysis: Zero Funds rate and buying Agency Paper what dose this mean? - 12/16/08 07:33 PM
The Federal Reserve lowering the Funds rate helps everyone. It lowers many home equity loans and business loans which look at the funds rate to set their index rate. It should also lower home mortgage rates although since the crisis started the yield risk spread, availability and willingness to lend effects the rates too.
Interest rates are coming down. Mortgage rates are coming down for real estate, finally. The Fed buying agency paper from Fannie and Freddie to provide funds to loan for mortgages. Sooner or later it will stick. It takes a bit of time to turn the Queen Mary and … (11 comments)
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real estate analysis: Real Estate markets need lots of money, let's set the record straight! - 12/10/08 10:18 PM
I have been reading many different ideas about the problems in our Real Estate markets.
I think it is important for us all to focus on the solution. The market got overheated and out of line by inappropriate use of capital. The capital has been removed, which as you all can see has not only hurt the market but our whole economy.
Let us review these facts:
Overbuilding which was accommodated by unqualified purchasers of homes started the problem. Over pricing, by having too much capital in too many hands which was not normally available caused prices to accelerate and rise … (9 comments)
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real estate analysis: Bravo! I think they got the point!! Fund Mortages for Buyers! - 12/04/08 08:53 PM
On Nov 16th I posted a blog If there is a solution, I think this is it, tell me what you think!
The idea was for the Federal Reserve to borrow at a low rate and lend through their mortgage facilities Fannie and Freddie at a low rate and still make a spread, for people to buy houses. It would be no cost to the tax payer but would get our market going.
To make the critical mass and get everything going, it needs to be across the buying chain and to include jumbo mortgages at a bit higher rate.
My … (6 comments)
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real estate analysis: Fed Pledges $500 Billion for Agency MBS, mortgage rates plummet!!!! - 11/25/08 06:28 PM
It is what I been waiting for the Fed commits it hand. I don't agree this is the right way. I believe they should of funded Fannie and Freddie to loan 4% loans, but hopefully this will work. The issue is that the money that goes into to buy the paper must go back into the lending pool.
Today they posted the 30 year rate under 5%, 4 7/8 and better on 30 year fixed. This will turn most markets, if it holds. Get ready the last time I seen this in November was 1993 and Dec. 1993 was the best … (6 comments)
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real estate analysis: If there is a solution, I think this is it, tell me what you think! - 11/16/08 10:55 PM
Our government is putting money into the banks and institution directly now without commitment or direction, for the funds to flow, if flow at all.
Instead of putting money everywhere in creation and not knowing if it is going to be put to use, I think it should go into subsidizing new home purchases through Fannie and Freddie. If Uncle Sam just buys bad paper it isn't going to help real estate prices move lower and there are more bad mortgages to deal with. The banks they give the money to don't want to give mortgages because they are not sure … (11 comments)
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real estate analysis: Libor down 17 days in a row, Fed starts funding financial today, when will mortgages drop? 100th post - 11/04/08 09:18 AM
In anticipation of today's funding and execution of the bail out plan, the LIBOR rates,(LONDON INTERBANK OFFERED RATE.) the price banks lend to each other at, has fall 17 days in a row. This should be a good indicator of confidence is starting to return. Banks must feel comfortable to lend to each other and to clients. Home mortgages rates should start to drop as the spreads on treasuries and corporate paper should narrow also.
The main problem with mortgage paper yet is the inability to assess risk and the valuation of the underlying asset, which are the houses that are … (3 comments)
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real estate analysis: Best news for Real Estate in Months! - 10/17/08 09:15 AM
The past few days Short term Treasury Bills and LIBOR, both over night and longer have eased. The Treasury Bills are going up in yield, meaning the flight to qualityis backing off. The LIBOR interbank rate has been back off. This means banks are starting to lend to each other. This is what we need to get loans out to people needing credit. It will help to ease up mortgage loans for qualified buyers. There has also been some execution of mergers and acquisitions, many groups and companies are able to raise money through debt.
Confidence has to come back and is indicated … (7 comments)
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real estate analysis: Banks and more Banks, what were they thinking? - 10/15/08 09:47 AM
Largest Banking Branch opening boom I ever seen leads to bust! Over the past few years, all around Northern New Jersey we have seen banks being built. I suppose it is the same else where. So many Banks, it leads you to believe, how we lived without them. Population has not gone up much to create a greater demand, so there must be another reason. I have said over and over, every time something booms so much it leads to a bust. Then the financial crisis came. Were all these banks being built, showing the disease that the banks have?
… (1 comments)
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real estate analysis: Trader's Desk Signals gone wild! Called largest daily gain in history. - 10/13/08 06:24 PM
We seen the whites of their eyes and have executed a great trade!
10/9/2008 P.M., I said to buy in the SP stock index futures Dec., in the A.M. at the market (870.00) at 850.00 and at 800.00, breaking your money into 3 parts.
We got 870 1 part and 850 one part. I said last night 10/12/2008 to sell one part at 950.00 and again the last part at 975.00 today.
I also said on Thursday night we would see the biggest one day rally in history. We had that today on this trade!
About 150% on margin on one … (9 comments)
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real estate analysis: Trader's Desk Signals, We seen the whites of there eyes and are in! - 10/12/08 08:20 PM
In Friday's market action.
Crude Oil drop within $2.00 of our long term target of $75.00. We want to cover shorts at $75.00. I don't want to miss this over a couple of dollars so we will watch it close.
The Stock index futures SP Dec., we bought the open at $870.50 on 1/3 of our position and again we bought $850.00 for 1/3 of our position. Our $800.00 buy when untouched and our $950.00 stop went untouched.
So average of $860.25 we are long 2/3 of our position. We will cancel our orders unfilled orders and trade this position. It is … (1 comments)
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real estate analysis: Trader's Desk Signals Special Report, I think I see the whites of their eyes! - 10/09/08 07:27 PM
"Do not shoot till you see the whites of their eyes!" It was General (Doctor) Warren, of Lexington, MA. He also died in the Battle of Bunker Hill. http://www.britishbattles.com/bunker-hill.htm
Well, their eyes are getting closer. If you recall we sold Crude oil back in July at the high tick of $147.10, my forecast was for a low within 6 months at $75.00 target. Oil hit 84.15 today and the whites are getting closer.
This was one of my best calls of the year and probably one I will remember forever.
For people who have been short, they should look to … (3 comments)
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real estate analysis: Worry, Fear, Complacency, Disbelief, Anger, Crashing Markets, this has all happened before! - 09/29/08 08:46 PM
Those of you that read my blogs probably have notice I am very direct and forceful in my thoughts and advise. I don't mean to be like this, but I write about what I am very confident in my expertise. I would not write about medicine, steel making, dog walking or anything I haven't devoted much thought and study.
So when I write about Real Estate if you looked at my profile you see why I am direct in my approach. You also will notice in my blogs I have studied markets, trading and the psychology of both for well over … (9 comments)
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real estate analysis: What really happened to Real Estate? What happens next? Updated - 09/25/08 10:13 AM
Deflating a massive credit expansion are like bombs going off all around. Deleveraging all these institutions is like a crack in a dam that grows and breaks, and the water wipes out the countryside.
If there was an easy way to describe the situation I would say it is something like this. The market, with low rates and full of liquidity (cash), needed to find a way to make a profit with it. So they leveraged it to the maximum amount. The idea was to create a profit with the least amount of equity. This drifted right down the eco scale and … (3 comments)
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real estate analysis: They sent in the Calvary, and we are all riding a horse. - 09/19/08 08:25 AM
Our financial markets are being rescued by our federal government.
Of course, I LOVE IT! We needed this panic to stop. However, although there is no choice and we must do everything possible to put the system back together, the cowboys were out of control. The greed and irresponsible actions of these institutions to look away from risk and only care about fees and profits was criminal. This is strong but we must realize they ruined lot of people's lives. We the tax payers are footing the bill for the poor judgment of the Banks, Wall Street and others who created a … (5 comments)
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real estate analysis: If there is a bottom to the real estate market, I think I'm touching it! - 09/18/08 07:15 PM
Fear is a flying and that's what bottoms are made of. The dollar is holding up and every entity is getting on the same page. If they separate the bad debt out, the sovereign funds will put money into our system also. It is in their best interest as well to get us over this. In doing so, they will make investments into our blue chip institutions. The government is to form an entity, maybe not an RTC, but some kind of holder for the bad paper, to resolve the unknown evaluations of asset.
So if you wanted to feel the … (3 comments)
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real estate analysis: First we send them our money............... - 09/17/08 09:10 PM
Now we need it back. Or should I say swap it for our assets. Yes, China has a lot of good old us Green Backs. And tonight CNBC has announced that China's CITIC is talking to Morgan Stanley about a take over. Our institution, which were the flag ships of the world are now being sucked up by our trading partners who have surplus dollars. In my last blog earlier today I was waiting for this to start.
Next will be the Arab states, however they normally only take a part interest in a firm. They don't want to run the … (5 comments)
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real estate analysis: So where do we go from here? - 09/17/08 05:51 PM
Banks in England are now forced to merge. Morgan Stanley and Wachovia are looking at merger. It seems there is not enough money in the US to fix it. Maybe we need over sea intervention by our trade partners, oil producers and China. They have the reserves that can help. Our government needs to court them in.
Donald Trump said something to the effect to just get up in the morning and do what you do. He also said he doesn't own stocks. He likes investing into hard assets like real estate. It is not just paper and it won't disappear.
… (2 comments)
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real estate analysis: What if I said that you own a stake in a very large company? - 09/16/08 10:33 PM
It has been reported on CNBC that the federal government, for $85 billion has bought a 80% position in AIG. That makes every take payer an owner of AIG shares.
If AIG is savable the Fed has made good deal. I think they started with $800 billion dollars before Fannie and Freddie. So they are down to $320 billion.
It is all to avert the domino affect of this crisis.
Maybe, it will be a good investment. So walk proud, you own a piece of a blue chip (once anyway) company.
Let us hope Uncle Sam has a … (4 comments)
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