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The Week Ahead: Manufacturing Data and Employment Situation - 04/30/12 05:05 AM
Bond markets traded in jaw-droppingly narrow ranges last week given the presence of the FOMC events (announcement, forecasts, press conference) and Q1 GDP. Markets showed a willingness to push the envelope only on a few occasions and only in the overnight sessions. During US trading hours, things were quiet, although there was a nominal weakening heading into Wednesday which contained both the FOMC and the 5yr Note auction. Yields and MBS prices alike, headed out on Friday at the same levels that began the week.We were hoping to see more of a trend develop following the FOMC and GDP, but given … (0 comments)
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MBS RECAP: Heading Out Near The Highs of a Very Flat Week - 04/30/12 04:16 AM
This is the third Friday in a row where we've looked back on what we would have thought would be a much more active week. We've been operating on a series of "if/then" dominoes as far as market momentum is concerned. If things lacked conviction after the post-NFP correction earlier in the month, then we were waiting for the FOMC-related events this week. If FOMC didn't motivate movement, then we'd look toward economic data in the form of today's GDP. And if GDP didn't stir the pot much, then next week's NFP is really all we have left. The fact that … (1 comments)
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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady To End Historically Flat Week. - 04/30/12 04:13 AM
Mortgages Rates are unchanged from yesterday, capping an extremely flat and historically low week. The FOMC events on Wednesday gave lenders some pause as they were generally more conservative with pricing. Even so, the variations left the entire week's range about as narrow as they come, a feat that's even more striking considering nearness to all time lows.
The Conventional 30yr Fixed Best-Execution Rate remains at 3.875% after recently being stuck between there and 4.0%. Keep in mind that "best-execution" as we calculate it, connotes the no-closing-cost rate for the best-qualified borrowers in the most ideal scenario. (read more about … (0 comments)
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MBS MID-DAY: Firm Resistance To Further Gains - 04/30/12 04:09 AM
"You shall not pass!" Resistance levels in bond markets joined the ranks of Gandalf and The Black Knight in uttering this phrase after last night's Spain Downgrade and this morning's GDP data. The "bridge" that bond markets are currently having a hard time crossing is the one that takes 10yr yields much below 1.94 or Fannie 3.5's much above 103-23, though there have been "attempts" to be sure (case in point: 10yr yields at 1.88+ overnight and into the high 1.92's this morning after GDP). The counterpoint is that there's potential support on the other side of that equation. For 10's, … (0 comments)
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Mortgage Rates Convincingly Lower After Weak Jobs Report - 04/07/12 06:36 AM
Mortgages Rates movedconvincingly lower today following aweaker-than-expected Jobs report. Combined with yesterday's gains, most lenders are at theirbest levels of the week. Some are close to theirbest levels of the month, but rate sheet offerings are more stratifiedthan normal. The Best-Execution Conventional 30yr Fixed Rate is now in a transitional territory between 3.875% and 4.0% with the latter still constituting the best bang for the buck.
Whereas many lenders would have had issues with no closing cost loans (assuming a flawless scenario) at 4.0% earlier this week, that would now be theexception rather than the rule. A few of the more … (2 comments)
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MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Soar After NFP's Surprising Miss - 04/07/12 06:01 AM
How many "wow's" can 1 month hold? In less than 30 day's, we've seen MBS drop abruptly to 4 month lows, gain half of that back, lose most of it again in ONE HOUR only to surge to better levels than before the sell-off began. We'd like to extend a heartfelt 'thanks' to FOMC data and NFP data... We'd been looking to them for big market moving motivations and they did not disappoint.
This morning's rally was all about NFP. It's really nice to see levels where they are, but please keep in mind that volume is paltry. Many market participants … (0 comments)
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The Day Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls And An Early Close - 04/07/12 05:51 AM
Today's NFP has been lookingless and less exciting over the past two days as bond markets have put in back to back winning sessions, both of them in surprisingly uneventful fashion. This could all be part of an elaborate trap to lull bond-bulls (raise your hand if you like low rates) into a false sense of security only for a better-than-expected Jobs report to send yields skyrocketing back toward 2.30 and beyond!
Ok... That last part is almost entirely in jest. While we're sensitive to the possibility that the last few days of strength go a long way toward helping us … (0 comments)
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MBS RECAP: Surprisingly Stable Rally. Waiting on NFP - 04/06/12 05:53 AM
MBS and Treasuries have both been eerily quiet today when viewed against the backdrop of yesterday's range. Look at today only and things have still been pretty darn stable with Treasuries rallying from roughly 2.26 to 2.23, putting in some decent supportive bounces along the way, and Fannie 3.5 MBS rallying from 102-08 to 102-19. We're still getting the impression that markets don't quite know what to do with themselves after yesterday's rout--almost as if they've shown up the NFP party too early and are waiting for the music to start before they move decidedly in one direction or another.
1:02PM … (1 comments)
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Mortgage Rates Improve Only Slightly After Rising Yesterday - 04/06/12 05:49 AM
Mortgages Rates improved only moderately today despite a stronger bounce back in underlying bond markets. The Best-Execution Conventional 30yr Fixed Rate remains intact at 4.0%. That means that the borrowing costs associated with yesterday's rate offerings will be slightly lower Today vs yesterday, but still significantly higher than Monday. It continues to be the case that more than a few lenders will have issues hitting that 4.0% mark with a "no closing cost" loan after yesterday's sharp rise in rates.
(read more about Best-Execution calculations).
Today really reinforces one of the common quips about mortgage rates getting better much slower than … (0 comments)
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MID-DAY: Recapturing Some of Yesterday's Losses - 04/06/12 05:44 AM
Bond markets continue to trade in better territory than yesterday's weakest levels. Most of the improvement was seen in the overnight session with some quick volatility leading up to and following this morning's ADP Employment report. At 209k private payrolls vs a 200k estimate, ADP didn't show enough of a divergence from expectations to move things in one direction or another. Bond markets seem to have their footing after reeling from yesterday's FOMC Minutes, but they haven't been able to muster additional gains from this morning. 2.24% and thereabouts has been very firm resistance for 10yr yields. MBS encountered the frequently … (0 comments)
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MBS Commentary] - With FOMC Minutes Out Of The Way, Employment Data In Focus - 04/06/12 03:46 AM
MBS went cliff-diving on Tuesday following the release of the FOMC Minutes from the 3/13/11 meeting. Interesting that it was the 3/13/11 meeting that initially marked the turning point for bond markets when 10yr yields broke north of 2.13. At that time, the run up to 2.40 was part of a perfect storm of the FOMC Announcement and surrounding events.
This time, we haven't sold off quite as much, but we also did most of the selling-off in a single hour as opposed to spaced over two days (check out the insane volume spike! Insane I tell you!). It was … (0 comments)
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Mortgage Rates Manage Slight Improvements To Begin The Week - 04/04/12 04:16 AM
After moving higher on Friday afternoon, Mortgages Rates eased back down to Thursday's levels, leaving them in slightly better shape than most of last week's offerings depending on the lender. Unlike Friday's abrupt, late-day weakness, today's underlying market movements for mortgages have been especially calm, prompting a few of the lenders in our survey to release improved rate sheets in the afternoon.
Even so, the improvements are only minor, and leave the Conventional 30yr Fixed Best Execution Rate at 4.0%. That means that today's improvement was not seen in RATES themselves, but rather in the COSTS required to obtain those rates. … (1 comments)
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Day Ahead: Big Decisions for Bonds; FOMC Minutes Loom - 04/04/12 04:13 AM
Bond markets continued to tiptoe around the task of hinting at any forceful commitment in one direction or another yesterday, and clues were in short supply. As we pondered last week, the general tone of the fixed income sector (at least the part that we, as MBS watchers, are concerned with) is either returning to test it's previous range or is in the process of ratcheting higher.
It's a pretty big "if," and a more than just another attempt to approach our analysis from a balanced point of view. The reason things are more serious this time has to do with … (0 comments)
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MBS MID-DAY: Uneventful and Indecisive Ahead of FOMC - 04/04/12 04:07 AM
10:10AM : ECON: Factory Orders Rise Slightly Slower Than Expected
*+1.3 pct vs +1.5 pct forecast* last month revised to -1.1 from -1.0* excluding transportation +0.9 vs -0.5 last month* excluding Defense +1.1 vs -1.3 last month
New orders for manufactured goods in February, up three of the last four months, increased $6.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $468.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.1 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9 percent.
Shipments, up nine consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $462.6 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent January increase.
… (1 comments)
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FOMC Minutes Show Waning Enthusiasm For QE3. Bonds Tank. - 04/04/12 04:04 AM
3:56PM : ALERT ISSUED:Bond Markets Leaking To Worst Levels After Hours
Weakness persists for Treasuries and MBS following today's FOMC minutes. No new information has come to light and current trading is merely the leftover aftershock from the earlier jolt, now playing out in lighter volume, after-hours trading.
10's are up to 2.2970, but did manage to hold an important supportive pivot into the official 3pm close (2.285). Fannie 3.5's are down 27 ticks on the day at 102-04. That justifies quite a bit of a shock to rate sheet pricing. MBS are now trading under the lows seen on 3/22 … (0 comments)
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Mortgage Rates Significantly Higher After Fed Meeting Minutes - 04/04/12 03:44 AM
Mortgages rates got crushed today, relatively speaking. It's ironic that we noted yesterday's rates as getting close to 3/13's levels because today's rates are turning out to be closer to 3/14's significantly worse levels. While the recently prevailing Conventional 30yr Fixed Best Execution Rate of 4.0% remains intact, costs to obtain that rate will be immensely higher today vs yesterday. More than a few lenders will have issues hitting that 4.0% mark with a "no closing cost" loan.Adding to the sense of irony in comparing today and yesterday to 3/13 and 3/14 is that the same core event is a factor … (0 comments)
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The Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes And Jobs Data - 04/02/12 04:05 AM
Bond markets coasted into Friday afternoon in eerily stable fashion, and seemed set to head out for the weekend in significantly better territory than one week earlier. But after failing to make more convincing gains and on the heels of a few big trades, snowball selling hit Treasuries hard, bringing MBS along for the unpleasant ride. In about an hour, half of the week's gains were gone.
Those precipitous losses will probably end up looking like one of two things by the end of this week: month-end/quarter gyrations (traders adjusting positions at the last minute) or a technical bounce off a … (0 comments)
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MBS RECAP: Calm, Positive Morning Gets Rolled Over By Snowball Selling - 04/02/12 04:00 AM
Things could have gone either way into this month-end/quarter-end trading day, either running out of steam at recent highs (or lows in TSY yields) or extending recent gains just a bit more to reach a potential range boundary around 2.10% in 10yr yields. We ended up getting the "running out of steam" option, and what had been an exceedingly calm session at improved prices quickly got ugly. A few big sellers flushed out a small flood of hold-outs who'd been waiting to hit that magical 2.10% or at least 2.13% range boundary. Those first two over-sized snowflakes were all that was … (1 comments)
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Nikitas Kouimanis
Nikitas Kouimanis 516 469 6262
Jericho,
NY
More about me…
RBI Associates, Ltd
Address: 32 South Service Road , Suite 2 , Jericho , NY , 11753
Office Phone: (855) 342-3555
Cell Phone: (516) 469-6262
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Nikitas Kouimanis is New York's mortgage EXPERT!
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