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in: Another Logical Day Of Record Highs - 05/18/12 05:04 AM
We characterized yesterday logical and well contained" with the benefit of some hindsight. While today's session wasn't "well contained," it was rather logical in that it went where you'd expect it to go given the events. Merkel surprisingly supportive of Greece remaining in the Euro-zone? Bond markets selling = logical. ECB wires saying certain MoPo operation with certain Greek banks is on hold? Bond markets bouncing back = logical. FOMC Minutes from a meeting that took place BEFORE the recent round of Euro-drama ramped up showing no incrementally hawkish viewpoints? Bond markets inferring Fed must be that much more willing to (0 comments)
in: Mortgage Rates Steady At All-Time Lows Thanks To Europe And The Fed - 05/18/12 04:59 AM
Mortgage Rates are steady to slightly improved today following as Europe's fiscal woes continue providing downward pressure on US interest rates. The forces at work keeping rates low were joined today by "minutes" from the most recent FOMC meeting. All told, several notable lenders are offering their all-time lowest interest rates while others remain close. Markets actually got off to a shaky start as far as rates were concerned. Had it not been for the European headlines and the FOMC Minutes, we'd likely be looking at slightly higher rates today. Mortgage-backed-securities (aka "MBS," the most direct influence on mortgage rates) and (0 comments)
in: After Merkel-Speak Soothes, Draghi Speaks Sooth - 05/18/12 04:54 AM
The main market-mover this morning was a CNBC interview with Angela Merkel. In it, the German chancellor offered an increasingly supportive tone on Greece remaining in the Euro-zone, saying that Germany would be open to Greece seeking additional stimulus. This was a net-negative for bond markets and generally soothed broader markets, though Treasuries and MBS maintained supportive ledges. Moments ago, news hit that the ECB would be stopping some monetary policy operations to some Greek banks. This follows earlier statements from ECB President Mario Draghi that point to a line in the sand that the ECB will not cross in order (0 comments)
in: The Day Ahead: Moderate Morning Econ With Fed Minutes In The PM - 05/18/12 04:49 AM
Wednesday looks to be a different animal than Tuesday's rather logical and well-contained session. Yesterday boasted one of the highest concentrations of economic data in recent memory, and while none of it was of earth-shattering importance, markets barely registered a response to the best of it. In other words, Greece and the Eurozone got the nod as market-movers while the boat-load of domestic economic data got obligatorily mentioned, but little traded. Back in the real world, markets generally traded two things, or rather, they traded two sides of one thing--namely: Greece's ability to repay its debts. Case in point, when Greece (0 comments)
in: MBS RECAP: Week Begins Slowly, But in Strong Territory - 05/08/12 03:32 AM
Monday turned out to be a non-starter as MBS and Treasuries spent another day doing their favorite activities. For MBS, that's been "holding inside a 4-6 tick range," while Treasuries see it as "inside a 2bp range." In addition to simply being flat on the day, each market was also flat with respect to Friday's trading. To illustrate this point, see the following charts with Friday's movement on the left followed by today's on the right.3:44PM : ECON: Consumer Credit Expands Most Since November 2011* Consumer Credit up $21.36 bln vs $9.8 bln Consensus* Previous month revised to $9.27 bln* Largest (0 comments)
in: Mortgage Rates Hold Gains Following Jobs Report - 05/08/12 03:29 AM
Mortgages rates continue to operate at their best levels since early February following Friday's weaker-than-expected Employment Situation report. There was effectively no change in most lenders' rate sheet offerings versus Friday morning's rates. Even last week, there were no dramatic movements into the Employment Report, but more of a steady march toward historical lows.This naturally leaves the 30yr Fixed Conventional Best-Execution Rate unchanged at 3.875%. With the Jobs Report behind us, there's less by way of big-ticket "risky events" in the near future. Economic data in the current week is limited although Treasury coupon auctions (3, 10, and 30yr maturities) will (0 comments)
in: MBS MID-DAY: Best Levels Into Scheduled Fed Buying - 05/08/12 03:24 AM
Without anything else on the calendar and the more significant European-election-inspired convulsions more of an overnight thing, the majority of the morning's movement seems attributable to the scheduled Fed "Twist" buying from 10:15 to 11:00am. MBS and Treasuries hit their best levels during that time and now their outlook in the immediate future is somewhat unclear. The Consumer Credit release is coming up at Noon, and although it's not traditionally a significant market mover, it could register some response owing to the dearth of alternative (read: more meaningful) guidance. 9:56AM : ALERT ISSUED: Bond Markets Hold Slightly Improved Levels After EU (0 comments)
in: The Week Ahead: Light Data Calendar Leaves Auctions/FOMC in Focus - 05/08/12 03:19 AM
This week's data calendar is exceptionally light with the exception of Fed speakers and a round of Treasury Auctions. The Fed-speak could prove somewhat more interesting than normal given that "to QE3 or not to QE3" is more dependent on economic data than it had been previously.Perhaps then, some FOMC members will see fit to share their stance on how last week's lackluster Non-Farm Payrolls print might affect the QE3 outlook. We're not expecting much more than the generic stuff that made the rounds last week, but perhaps we'll see a small increase in the level of concern.The other key data (1 comments)
in: MBS RECAP: Surprisingly Stable Rally. Waiting on NFP - 04/06/12 05:53 AM
MBS and Treasuries have both been eerily quiet today when viewed against the backdrop of yesterday's range. Look at today only and things have still been pretty darn stable with Treasuries rallying from roughly 2.26 to 2.23, putting in some decent supportive bounces along the way, and Fannie 3.5 MBS rallying from 102-08 to 102-19. We're still getting the impression that markets don't quite know what to do with themselves after yesterday's rout--almost as if they've shown up the NFP party too early and are waiting for the music to start before they move decidedly in one direction or another. 1:02PM (1 comments)
in: Mortgage Rates Improve Only Slightly After Rising Yesterday - 04/06/12 05:49 AM
Mortgages Rates improved only moderately today despite a stronger bounce back in underlying bond markets. The Best-Execution Conventional 30yr Fixed Rate remains intact at 4.0%. That means that the borrowing costs associated with yesterday's rate offerings will be slightly lower Today vs yesterday, but still significantly higher than Monday. It continues to be the case that more than a few lenders will have issues hitting that 4.0% mark with a "no closing cost" loan after yesterday's sharp rise in rates. (read more about Best-Execution calculations). Today really reinforces one of the common quips about mortgage rates getting better much slower than (0 comments)
in: MID-DAY: Recapturing Some of Yesterday's Losses - 04/06/12 05:44 AM
Bond markets continue to trade in better territory than yesterday's weakest levels. Most of the improvement was seen in the overnight session with some quick volatility leading up to and following this morning's ADP Employment report. At 209k private payrolls vs a 200k estimate, ADP didn't show enough of a divergence from expectations to move things in one direction or another. Bond markets seem to have their footing after reeling from yesterday's FOMC Minutes, but they haven't been able to muster additional gains from this morning. 2.24% and thereabouts has been very firm resistance for 10yr yields. MBS encountered the frequently (0 comments)
in: MBS Commentary] - With FOMC Minutes Out Of The Way, Employment Data In Focus - 04/06/12 03:46 AM
MBS went cliff-diving on Tuesday following the release of the FOMC Minutes from the 3/13/11 meeting. Interesting that it was the 3/13/11 meeting that initially marked the turning point for bond markets when 10yr yields broke north of 2.13. At that time, the run up to 2.40 was part of a perfect storm of the FOMC Announcement and surrounding events.
This time, we haven't sold off quite as much, but we also did most of the selling-off in a single hour as opposed to spaced over two days (check out the insane volume spike! Insane I tell you!). It was (0 comments)
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