Michigan Real Estate Musings

The May market update from our broker...

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Fri, 24 May 2013 13:01:43 -0700

Dan Elsea is our company broker of record and President of the brokerage operations of Real Estate One, whichis the 13th largest real estate company in the U.S. He provides a report on the marketin our area to our offices each month. This is his report for May.

The real estate market continues its wild ride into summer. This is the most active market we have seen in Michigan. The Months Supply of Inventory has dropped to 37 days for the majority of the market, not yet to the two weeks of inventory that Las Vegas has, but still the lowest we have recorded. So are we headed for another bubble? The answer is both yes and no, but mainly no.

Cash sales are near 40%, lending standards are still very tough, housing affordability is at record highs and values remain 25% off their peak. All of which serve as insulation against another bubble. The added equity being created by the rise in values is strengthening a weak economy, as opposed to overheating a strong economy (which was the case in 2006). So, we have some room to play with before there is any significant bubble.

On the “yes” side, however, values are rising faster than the economy should dictate. Because home values are so affordable, many buyers can also afford to overbid. But there will be a natural cap on a “bubble” getting too high. Looking out to late 2014/2015, appreciation rates will move down to a more normal level from the 1-2% per month we are seeing now. This is due to interest rates inevitably rising and buyer demand slowing, as the pent up demand from the past six years levels off.

The annual appreciation rate should have a bubble look as appreciation rates peak over this year and the next and then settle back down to a more typical rate.

Following the rate at which different housing indicators are changing is a good way to see just how quickly a market is moving. The rate of change compares the percentage change from one month to the same month the prior year. For example, new listings in February of this year might be 20% lower than last February, but the March comparison was off only 10%, which means listing inventories are still falling, but at a slower rate. The charts below follow the rates changing over the past year for new listings, pending sales, days on market and price per square foot.

We are seeing the first signs that listing inventories are starting to stabilize. On the chart below, the green trend line follows the rate of change in new listings coming on the market compared to the prior year. From June 2012 to February 2013, fewer new listings were entering the market each month. In March and April of this year, the rate of new listings continued to fall, but at a much slower rate. This shows it is getting “less worse”, which is a positive trend! Buyer demand (the blue line) has also been accelerating in March and April, absorbing any and all new listings and not surprisingly the average days on market dropped dramatically, as well. If these trends continue, we can expect inventories to continue to tighten through the summer, even if more listings hit the market, since buyer demand continues to rise.

Using price per square foot as a value indicator, the rate of appreciation began accelerating dramatically last summer and has leveled off some in the past few months (it can’t go up forever).

April of this year was our strongest month since June of 2006 in terms of homes sold, a solid indicator of just how far the market has bounced back. We have moved from the pan, into the fire, from the dog days of 2007-2010 to today’s wild market, each with their own challenges and opportunities. This market is much more fun, but no less exhausting!

Norm Werner

Real Estate One

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The truth will set you free...

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Wed, 22 May 2013 04:21:45 -0700

“Confronting the truth will always set you free.” (Valerie Harper) from my favorite blog – Jack’s Winning Words.

I have found that sticking with the truth and being as transparent as possible throughout the real estate process is tremendously liberating. I don’t have to waste time worrying about to whom did I say what or playing games in pursue of some sense of having “won” somehow. I can instead spend my time creating win-win situations, where everyone is in the loop on everything and there are no secrets or surprises.

Sometimes the truth isn’t pleasant or what you wanted to hear. Valerie Harper is battling brain cancer and I’m sure she didn’t want to hear that; however, she has confronted that truth and her prognosis and has moved on to enjoy the rest of her life as best as she can. Confronting her situation has set her free.

Are there things in your life that you need to confront, in order to be free?

Norm Werner

Real Estate One

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Video Update on the Southeastern Michigan Real Estate Market

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Tue, 21 May 2013 08:18:55 -0700

Our fearless leader and the head broker for Real Estate One - Dan Elsea – has started doing a video market update and I thought I’d share that with all of my readers. It basically adds some nice graphics and some explanation from a different source to what I’ve been sharing with you all along. This update covers data throught he end of April and goingitno May. Enjoy…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUiIL1BKDUI

Norm Werner

Real Estate One

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The Real Estate Market - Looking back on April and ahead to May

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Wed, 15 May 2013 12:27:38 -0700

As of the end of April, the local MLS reported these stats for our Southeastern Michigan area –

Highlights:

·The median sale price for All MLS sales increased to $97,165 – up by 35%

·All MLS sales were up by 6.8% for April compared to April 2012. Even with a 21.7% decrease in Inventory!

·Of the 5,799 sales closed in April 8% (472) were identified as short sales.

·Of the 5,799 sales closed in April 44% (2,522) were identified as CASH sales

Synopsis of Inventory:

·Average Days On-Market decreased by 14 days, from 87 to 73.

·The on-market inventory declined by 22%, from 26,896 to 21,054.

·Approx. 14% of the on-market inventory is comprised of short sales.

·Approx. 13% of the on-market inventory is comprised of foreclosures.

Analysis:

What does that mean for you? Well, if you’ve been waiting to see if the market would recover before listing your house, you’ve waited long enough; the market has recovered and taken off, due mainly to the low inventory. You can take advantage of that situation to sell quicker and for more than you would if we were in a more balanced market with normal inventory. Call me today to get an updated Market Analysis for your home to see if you can (and should) sell now.

If you’re a buyer – DARN; you missed the bottom and now will have to pay a bit more. Buyers may also be a bit frustrated by the lack of homes to choose from; however, the ones on the market today are generally in better condition than those at the same price points a year or so ago. The thing you need to be aware of is the need to be ready to act, and act decisively, should you find a home that you like. You will not have days or weeks to make up your mind. Multiple-offer situations and bidding wars are the order of the day now.

Buyers have to be ready to jump and you’ll have to bid at or maybe even above asking price to get a really good home. That also means you need to be all pre-approved for a mortgage, if you are going to use one. There’s no time to say you like a house and then go try to get pre-approved – that house will be gone by the time you get through the pre-approval process. It is also better in the current market to use a Conventional mortgage rather than an FHA or VA mortgage, if you can swing it. The rates are generally running lower on conventional mortgages right now and the sellers don’t have to worry about the FHA/VA appraisal/inspection.

Buyers should also note that foreclosures and short sales have shrunk as a percentage of listings and sales, so you may need a plan “B” if that’s what you were looking to buy. There are still some out there and the fixer-uppers are still around, but while they used to be more than 50% of the market, they are now less than 20% in most area Townships.

Go to my Web site – www.movetomilford.com to see all of the sold homes statistics for this area for April and year-to-date, along with historical data going back 4-5 years. I’ve already posted the sold homes data there for the first 2 weeks of May, too.

Norm Werner

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Milford Historical Museum Open House May 18

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Mon, 13 May 2013 06:01:34 -0700

If you haven’t been to the Historical Museum lately (or maybe ever), you’re in luck. Our museum opened for the season on May 1st and will be open on Wednesdays and Saturdays from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m.

In honor of our opening, the Historical Society will be hosting an Open House on Saturday, May 18th from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. This family friendly event will allow guests to visit our museum and see displays depicting Milford over the years. Demonstrations will be on going thru out the day. On our front lawn, you will be able to see candle dipping, woodworking, yarn spinner, and basket weaving demonstrations throughout the day. Kids of all ages will be able to participate in games from long ago.

We will also have a special guest in the Parlor. Wife of the 16th President, Mary Todd Lincoln will greet guest and give a glimpse of live in the White House. Also on hand will be the Huron Valley Numismatic Club that will be able to answer questions from coin collector enthusiastic. Hands on demonstration will take place in our log cabin display where kids will be able to make a cornhusk doll and in the kitchen see how butter was made.

It will be a day full of fun activities for the whole family! Admission to the museum is free and open to all; you do not need to be a member to attend.

Norm Werner

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It's OK to be ignorant, just don't be dumb about it

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Sat, 11 May 2013 05:45:03 -0700

“Everybody is ignorant, only on different subjects.” (Will Rogers) from my favorite source for pithy quotes the Jack’s Winning Words Blog.

Will Rogers certainly hit the nail on the heads when it comes to explaining why there is value in working with a Realtor® on your real estate transactions. I get quite a few customers who can’t wait to tell me that they’ve bought and sold numerous houses, so they understand the real estate process. That’s somewhat true. They’ve been through a process that was similar to today’s process; however, if they haven’t bought and sold several houses in the last 12 months, they probably don’t understand the process as it works today.

The fact is that the process is constantly changing and evolving, due to influences like the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and the many other wonderful laws and regulations that have been passed or promulgated in the last few years. Add to that the recent financial crisis and the extremely volatile local real estate market conditions and you have a very dynamic environment that even we Realtors have a tough time keeping up with. The dynamics are constantly changing. One month we may be in a buyers’market and next have flipped over to a sellers’ market. For a while the banks weren’t lending to any but the absolute best credit risks and then they relaxed the rules. Sometimes there are zero down programs and sometimes not. Down payment assistance programs come and go or get funded and then run out of funds.

It can all be very confusing for someone whose job doesn’t involve keeping up with all of this stuff. Even the most seasoned veteran of many real estate transactions doesn’t normally have the time or inclination to keep up with all of the changes that are going on in real estate. Then there are court cases being decided all the time that impact how the whole system works. Realtors get legal updates on a regular basis to help them keep up with real estate laws.

So, I guess it’s OK to admit that real estate is one subject about which much of the general public might be ignorant. There’s nothing wrong with that. That’s what you have us Realtors for. It is part of our job to keep up with all of that stuff and to keep you from making mistakes based upon your own ignorance about the process as it exists today. We are your fiduciaries . The Legal Dictionary has this to say about fiduciaries –

An individual in whom another has placed the utmost trust and confidence to manage and protect property or money. The relationship wherein one person has an obligation to act for another's benefit.

A fiduciary relationship encompasses the idea of faith and confidence and is generally established only when the confidence given by one person is actually accepted by the other person. Mere respect for another individual's judgment or general trust in his or her character is ordinarily insufficient for the creation of a fiduciary relationship. The duties of a fiduciary include loyalty and reasonable care of the assets within custody. All of the fiduciary's actions are performed for the advantage of the beneficiary.

The relationship between a Realtor and his clients – sellers or buyers – is a fiduciary relationship. The clients put their trust in us to understand the real estate system - its rules and regulations and laws – and to not only keep them out of trouble with those rules and laws, but to also always represent their best interests as we negotiate on their behalf during a transaction; and that’s what we do. It’s OK to be a little ignorant about real estate, so long as you have a good agent acting on your behalf who isn’t ignorant about it. It’s also OK for a good agent to not know everything (that’s impossible), but to be honest with themselves and with you about what they don’t know and knowledgeable about how to find out what he/she doesn’t know. So, don’t panic if your agent says to you “I don’t know” in answer to a question or issue, so long as they follow up with “But, I know how to find out.” A saying by Georage Bernard Shaw probably covers that best - Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.

Norm Werner

Real Estate One

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Monthly Market Report for Southeastern Michigan

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 04:27:22 -0700

Michigan Monthly Market Report – April 2013

For the first quarter of 2013, Michigan is still a leader in the housing recovery but a number of states have caught up, extending the housing recovery across the nation. Throughout the state we are seeing inventory shortages and rising values. Southeast Michigan remains the most active with the lowest inventory and strongest buyer demand. A new term is being used in the industry: the Shadow Demand. Like the Shadow Inventory which represented the potential bank-owned homes that could go on the market, the Shadow Demand represents the pent-up Buyers who have been holding back for the past 5 years. While the release of the shadow bank inventory has been slow and steady, the Shadow Demand seems to be jumping in all at once.

We expect a shortage of homes for sale throughout 2013 and 2014 with inventories rising and demand slowing down a bit in 2015 as interest rates increase and the Shadow Demand is dissipated. How quickly home inventories will raise depends on two factors: the pace of appreciation, and more importantly, how quickly Sellers realize that home values are improving. For many Sellers, values have risen enough that it makes sense to sell now, particularly if you are also buying.

For anyone who has purchased a home in the past four years, particularly investors, it is a great time to test the market. You should be pleasantly surprised on the potential return on your investment. The same holds for those who leased their homes, waiting for the values to rise.

Historically, with low For Sale inventories, home builders fill the gap. So far, local home builders, which traditionally make up the majority of new construction, have had difficulty obtaining financing so they have not been able to supply any inventory relief.

Following the market trends over the past three years, you can see values have been moving off the bottom since the spring of 2011 and gaining speed these last three quarters.

Charts: Average Cost per Square Feet

The next two charts show both the decline in the number of new home listings entering the market as well as the increase in the number of homes being placed under contract. It is interesting to note the declining bank-owned share of the market.

Charts: Home Listings Entering the Market & Home Listings Placed Under Contract

The result is a big increase in Sales Absorption, which is the percent of the available homes being sold each quarter. Considering that about a third of homes for sale are not really saleable because of condition, motivation or price, a 44% rate this past quarter represents a true absorption of closer to 70%, which is the driving force behind the double digit appreciation rates.

Chart: Sales Absorption

As a company we continue to gain a bigger piece of the pie, and most importantly, we are gaining market share in the number of new listings taken. We are working hard to reach out to you, our clients, and show you the opportunities in this market.

It is important to note in this improving market that a decline in the number of sales reflects the shortage of inventory, not a market slowdown.

If you would like more information on the market, like to list your property, or want information on any property with any broker, you may call or email at anytime.

Thank You,

Norm Werner
Put my team to work for you
P: 248-763-2497
normwerner@comcast.net
http://www.normwerner.realestateone.com

Norm Werner

Real Estate One

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How walkable is it where you live?

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Sat, 20 Apr 2013 05:18:10 -0700

“Anything’s within walking distance, if you have enough time.” (Steven Wright)

But what if you don’t have all the time in the world to get to something? That’s where the “walkability” of your neighborhood comes in. I met the lady who wrote the book on “walkability”, which is a measurement of how convenient it is to walk to things from where you live. Out of her work a Web site was born that has the URL http://www.Walkscore.com. The book focused upon what makes a neighborhood walkable – the places that you can reasonably walk to and the things you can do once you get there. Included in important places that you might be able to walk to are stores, libraries, parks, restaurants and more.

There are urban areas like Chicago and Boston and New York where you would see a very high walkscore, since they have very dense neighborhoods that have most of the things one needs integrated into the fabric of the neighborhood. Once you get out to the suburbs you often lose that ability to walk to the store or the restaurant.

I live in Milford, Michigan which has a very high walkscore of 77 (out of 100) when I type in my address. I used to live in Orchard Lake in a typical bedroom community and when I put in that address the score is 9, which means that it is almost a totally car-dependent neighborhood. Go to walkscore.com and type in your address. What score do you get? If you’d like to be in a more walkable place, call me and I’ll find you a home in Milford, where you can walk to almost anything you need.

Norm Werner

Real Estate One

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The lid is off! It's time to get out of the jar!

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 06:00:00 -0700

I read a blog recently that was based upon a story about an experiment that was done some time ago with fleas in a glass jar. When the fleas were initially put in the jar a lid was screwed on the jar to prevent them from getting out. At first the fleas would still climb up the jar walls and try to jump out. They would bang their heads on the jar lid and fall back down into the jar. After a few days the fleas stopped trying to get out because they had become conditioned that trying lead to a bump on the head and a fall. The lid was then removed fro the jar and none of the fleas tried to get out because they had been conditioned that trying that lead most certainly to failure and a sore head.

The real estate market has undergone similar conditioning that is keeping would-be sellers bottled up. The “lid” that was on our market – low property values caused by the recession – has been removed and yet too few have even tried to get out of the jar and put their homes on the market. Property values certainly aren’t all the way back to where they were at the peak of the bubble that burst and led to the recession; however, they are also not mired at the low point of the recession. Values have come back over 10% year-over-year in many areas and the low inventory in the market right now has led to bidding wars over the few homes that are available. Even appraisals have started coming back to support the price increases.

The point here is to shout out as loud as I can that THE LID IS OFF! TRY AGAIN! You may still bang your head on a market price that is too low to allow you to sell. People who bought at the peak or who took all their equity out at the peak are likely still underwater; however, most owners are probably better off that they know. You won’t know if you don’t have a current market analysis done by a real estate professional. Having a Realtor® give you an updated Comparative Market Analysis doesn’t usually cost you anything. It is quite likely that the recent uptick in the market will allow you to again consider listing your current home, so that you can get on with retirement or job-relocation plans. Call me and let me see what you house is worth on today’s market. If you aren't in my area, at least call a local Realtor and get his/her opinion on the current value of your house.

Norm Werner

Real Estate One

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First Quarter Market Report for Southeastern Michigan

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 05:32:45 -0700

From our Brokerage President - Dan Elsea:

For the first quarter of 2013, Michigan is still a leader in the housing recovery but a number of states have caught up, extending the housing recovery across the nation. Throughout the state we are seeing inventory shortages and rising values. Southeast Michigan remains the most active with the lowest inventory and strongest buyer demand. A new term is being used in the industry: the Shadow Demand. Like the Shadow Inventory, which represented the potential bank-owned homes that could go on the market, the Shadow Demand represents the pent-up Buyers who have been holding back for the past 5 years. While the release of the shadow bank inventory has been slow and steady, the Shadow Demand seems to be jumping in all at once.

We expect a shortage of homes for sale throughout 2013 and 2014 with inventories rising and demand slowing down a bit in 2015 as interest rates increase and the Shadow Demand is dissipated. How quickly home inventories will rise depends on two factors: the pace of appreciation, and more importantly, how quickly Sellers realize that home values are improving. For many Sellers, values have risen enough that it makes sense to sell now, especially if you are also buying.

Following the market trends over the past three years, you can see values have been moving off the bottom since the spring of 2011 and gaining speed these last three quarters.

And from me...

So, what does all of this mean to you? Well, if you've been on the fence about selling, now is the time to jump off the fence and get into the market. Once the market re-balances the supply and demand curves the appreciation rate and what you'll be able to get for your house will slow to a more normal rate. You can get top dollar right now and multiple bids are not that unusual. Call me for a free Comparative Market Analysis on your home, especially if you haven't had the value analyzed within the last year. You'll be pleasantly surprised.

For buyers, there is frustration at the lack of inventory to choose from and the bidding process that is going on for good properties; however, the mortgage rates are still low and home values are going in the right direction for you to recoup the buying costs fairly quickly. Jump in while things are still affordable and mortgage rates still low. Many mortgage lenders have re-instituted programs requiring as little as 5% down or allowing for 10-10-80 loans to avoid PMI. Check with your lender of the programs available. For first time buyers there are still down payment assistance programs available and a few 0% down programs still funded. Call me and let's get looking.

Norm Werner

Real Estate One

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Make it possible...

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Tue, 09 Apr 2013 04:25:23 -0700

From the Jack’s Winning Words blog comes this little bit of inspirational thinking - “Nothing is impossible. The word itself says, ‘I’m possible!’’” (Audrey Hepburn)

I like Hepburn’s line of thinking. It is directing you away from pondering the seemingly impossible things in life and towards using your imagination and intelligence to instead think of all of the things that you might do to make it possible. To my way of thinking, it is a much better use of your time.

If you start with the positive attitude that all things are possible, some perhaps more difficult than others, but still possible; then you can direct your creative juices towards finding that possible solution. I suspect that a lot of things don’t get done in life because the people involved were too content to believe that they are impossible, so why try. Some may know that they are possible, but have decided that the effort is not worth the reward – it’s possible but too hard. Still others may just be satisfied with the “moral victory” by thinking to themselves - “ I know I could do it if I wanted to.” What a hollow victory that is.

There have been all sorts of management books written about how to manage your time or tackle big projects by breaking them down into smaller tasks. Underlying all of that good advice is the premise that you don’t look at the day ahead or the task at hand and just say it’s impossible. You have to start with the view of life that Audrey Hepburn had – nothing is impossible.

How do you tackle the impossible in your life?

Norm Werner

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What the heck is a site condo?

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 13:46:07 -0700

I often encounter confusion on the part of buyers, who either are not from Michigan or who perhaps haven’t been in the market for 20-30 years, about the different types of properties that I might be showing them. Michigan has at least one totally unique class of properties that you won’t find in any other state – the site condo.

Most people are familiar with the platted subdivision. Until the mid-1980’s that was one of the only ways that developers and builders could develop a property with multiple individual dwelling units. There also were a number of variants for developing multi-family units, either as apartments, condos or co-ops. I’ll discuss each of those in future articles. One important thing to remember about all of these types of properties is that each has its own set of laws and rules that the builder and owners must follow.

Until the mid-1980’s all builders who wanted to create subdivisions of single family homes had to go through the process of getting the plat (the layout of the individual lots) approved and follow all of the rules that had built up over time to govern those developments. Homes in those subs were wholly owned by the buyers – lot and house, inside and out. There were normally fairly rigid and strict rules about the size of lots, the closeness of houses to one another and the building standards (local building codes) that had to be met for the houses and the design and construction standards for the roads within the sub. The issue of the roads was a big one, since the roads were normally turned over to the local governing body (Township, Village or City) for future maintenance. Those local governments set the standards for the how the roads had to be designed and built. They also set up procedures for doing things like environmental impact studies and holding neighborhood hearings about the proposed project, that had to be followed and much more.

By the mid-1980 the process that a developer had to go through in order to do a platted sub had become onerous and time consuming. It often took a year just to get the necessary permissions to begin the development. Builder looked around for relief from the platted sub processes and found it in Michigan’s Condo laws and rules. Condo complexes were a newer type of multiple unit dwelling and more governed by laws and rules that were also more modern. One major difference was in the roads within a condo complex. They are designed to be private and to remain private upon completion of the complex. Maintenance of those roads is planned into the long term maintenance plans for the complex and are the responsibility of the condo homeowners association, along with exterior maintenance and maintenance and insurance for any common elements like pools or parks or entrances (gates, islands, etc.).

Sometime in the mid-1980’s builders determined (I’m sure with the blessing and help of the political powers at the time) that they could build the equivalent of a subdivision in a lot less time and with a lot less hassle by building under the Michigan Condominium laws and rules. The Condominium Law was enacted in 1978 and amended in 1983. Developers found that they could use that law to achieve much greater flexibility for the layout of the houses and the design of the roads by keeping the roads private and also creating shared areas the ownership of which would be retained by a homeowners association. The condominium law also laid out a much faster process for development approval. So, the Michigan “site condo” was born by redefining a “unit” within the condo complex to include the land and the house that is built on it. So, in a site condo complex the individual owners own the land that their house sits upon and the house itself; further they are totally responsible for the upkeep of both. The owners land and houses are considered to be units within the complex; and so, they required to be members of the Homeowners Association (HOA), which “owns” and is responsible for the roads and any common areas.

The site condo is sort of like taking the concept of a detached condo (which had been around for a while) one step further – now you own your own lot too. The rules for the site condo are in the Master Deed and take the form of By-Laws for the HOA. In most cases those rules are broad and fairly detailed in terms of what the homeowner may and may not do with or to his property without permission from the HOA. Things like paint colors for the house, additions to the house, putting in a swimming pool and any other things that is likely to have impact on the value of the whole neighborhood are governed under those rules. Some find that to be intrusive and onerous, but most find it to be comforting that the values in the neighborhood are less likely to be impacted by a rouge owner.

What other impacts are there for owners from living in a site condo, rather than in a plated sub?

One difference that was not recognized, even by by the builders, for a while is the requirement that condo complexes fill out special registration forms with the Veterans Administration certifying that their complexes do not discriminate, especially against vets. Many builders just didn’t do the paperwork when they were building and now find that veterans cannot use their VA benefits to buy one of their units. There is no way to recover if the paperwork was not filed when the complex was being built. Another issue sometimes comes up when buyers are trying t use out of state banks for financing. Since Michigan is the only state with this unique property type, many out of state banks don’t know what to make of it. They see the work Condominium in the legal description and immediately think of the traditional condo complex. It confuses them and many have more stringent lending practices for condos than for regular houses. That shouldn’t be an issue if you deal with local banks or mortgage lenders.

Should you avoid site condos?

There’s little chance that you will be able to in Michigan, unless you buy an older home. Almost all of the homes built after the mid-1980’s are site condos.

So, now you know what a site condo is, albeit in simple terms. I deal with them all of the time. If you’re looking to buy in this area give me a call and we’ll find you just the right site condo to meet your needs.

Norm Werner

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Places to go and things to do in the Huron Valley in April 2013

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Fri, 29 Mar 2013 14:18:54 -0700

Whether or not you’ll be traveling out-of-town over Spring Break, go to my Web site – www.movetomilford.com and check out all of the fun things there will be to do around the Huron Valley area over the next few weeks. You can start with The Great Egg Hunt out at Kensington Metropark this week and go from there. Actually you could end up back at Kensington quite often, since they have lots of upcoming events and many of their animals will be having spring babies or litters.

For the wee ones there’s a whole series of events coming up at Max & Izzy’s in Downtown Milford. For the older kids there’s the shoot ‘em up, blow ‘em up movie GI Joe Revenge showing at the Milford Cinema.

With warmer weather finally arriving getting outdoors will be high on the list. Take the kids to Central Park to play on the play structures or get really adventuresome and go rent a canoe and get out on the river. Kensington will be hosting all sorts of outdoor activities , as well as their first “Farmer for a DAy ” events out at the Farm Center. This program is offered to boys and girls, ages 7 to 15 years old, interested in working on a farm. Kids will work alongside the farmers and in teams to accomplish daily or seasonal chores. This program is designed to be educational and fun. Children will leave with a greater appreciation of farm life. Most will probably come away saying, “So, I decided not to be a Farmer”, but they’ll have a better appreciation for farm life.

The arts are not to be forgotten either. April 13 is PAN – Poetry Art Night – at the Huron Valley Council for the Arts in Highland. Then on April 20 the final performance in the Classic Series featuring a performance by soprano Karen Roberts at the HVCA. Go tp the Move to Milford web site and click on the poster for all of the info on that event.

For those who love garage sales there are two events – the Community Sharing Garage Sale April 17, 18, 19 at the Apollo Center in Highland and the Mom 2 Mom sale at Lakeland High on April 20.

There is also a job fair for Lakeland High School Students on April 24 to allow the students and potential summer employers to get to know each other.

Norm Werner

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Freddie says housing market to bloom in spring

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 08:14:56 -0700

From the Freddie Mac Web Site comes this report -

March 28
Low and relatively steady mortgage rates are invigorating the housing market. For instance, existing home sales over January and February experienced the strongest two-month pace since November 2009, while new home sales were the strongest since August and September 2008. This strong demand helped push the S&P/Case-Shiller® 20-city home price index (seasonally adjusted) in January to its highest reading since December 2008. Moreover, the number of consumers expecting to purchase a home over the next six months rose to 5.6 percent in March, the second highest share since data was first collected in February 1964, according to The Conference Board.

Here is a link to the video in which Freddie MAC Vice President and Chief Economist, Frank Nothaft talks about this forecast.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=lbu2QqM8OuE#t=0s

The bottomline for sellers is to get in on this Spring fling and get your house on the market. For the buyers the advice is to take advantage of the low mortgage rates while you can and before the rising house prices put the really nice homes out of reach. It's all good news!

Norm Werner

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Zillow survey paints optimistic picture for market recovery

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 04:54:00 -0700

A recent survey by Zillow of over 100 professional economic forecasters produced a prediction of a fairly fast recovery in housing prices - about 4.1% per year over the next five years. That's above the historic (pre-bubble) rate of 3.4% that had been in place for decades. If the Zillow prediction proves true the housing market will recover 22% of the lost value by 2018.

Locally we have seen an even higher rate of recovery - in the 8%+ range, mainly driven by the extremely tight inventory situation. There's currently too much money chasing too few homes. That will change as soon as the Spring rush of listing occurs and more product in on the market.

For now sellers are enjoying a market with multiple bids on most houses and bidding wars are not uncommon. Cash buyers have also dominated the low end of the market for some time, squeezing out many first time buyers. Buyers are just experiencing frustration.

Of course no one can predict with any certainty what will happen and the economic recovery overall is still fragile; however, the current trends in the market certainly seem to support this optimism. You can read the entire Zillow report by clicking here.

One graphic that they have in the report is especially powerful - it shows the market zooming along and then the bottom dropping out. I guess we all know that that felt like.

Norm Werner

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Getting to know you...

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Sun, 24 Mar 2013 06:27:30 -0700

“I wonder how many people I’ve looked at all my life and never seen?” (John Steinbeck) from the Jack’s Winning Words blog. You could also state this thought, “I wonder how many people I know that I don’t really know?”

As I get older I’ve become a bit more introspective about thoughts like Steinbeck’s saying. I suspect we all know people that we haven’t really taken the time to see (to know). We may even hang out with them and call them friends or acquaintances, but we really have never taken the time and made the effort to get to know them.

It’s hard with some people to really get to know them, because they might be the types who don’t open up very much or like to share anything about themselves. Many times the circumstances in which we “know” someone don’t facilitate really getting to know them, especially if we know them in a business setting. I belong to a local Chamber of Commerce referral networking group in Milford and we use one-on-one meetings to facilitate getting to know our members better.

For the one-on-one meetings we each commit to meet with another member for an hour long session of getting to better understand that person and their business, so that we can do a better job of giving them referrals. While there is an obvious business reason for the meeting, most members spend most of the meeting time just talking about themselves and their families and lives. It helps to really get to know them better. I haven’t come away from a single one-on-one without a much better understand of that person, as well as an appreciation for what they do for a living.

Most of the time you won’t have the artificial mechanism of a planned one-on-one meeting with someone that you might want to get to know better; however, just a quick invite like, “Let’s get together for a coffee sometime” can provide you with the setting to use to learn more about that person. The key is not to just throw out that line, but to mean it and to follow up on setting a date for that coffee get together.

Of course, one can also take Steinbeck’s message to be that we look at people in a defocused way and don’t “see” what’s there to be seen, written on their faces or in their mannerisms. As we read about tragedies like the recent teenage suicide of a Middle School student, the phrase “I just didn’t see the signs” is used over and over. People were looking at that young man and not seeing his anguish or problems. They didn’t stop and get to know him well enough to be able to intercede by seeing his problems.

Maybe if someone had seen the signs they might have stopped him and asked if he wanted to talk or if they could help. Perhaps they were too consumed walking along and starting down at their phones to notice him. Perhaps we all are too consumed by modern distractions like that which tend to take our focus away from the people around us. Stop and look around you. Whom do you really see when you look?

Norm Werner

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Easter Egg Hunt today

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Sat, 23 Mar 2013 04:42:29 -0700

Today is the day for the annual Huron Valley Chamber of Commerce free Easter egg hunt. The event divides the kids into three different age group brackets, so that it's a little more fair for the younger aged children. The hunt will tak place at the Duck Lake Pines Park on Duck Lake Rd in Highland. That is about a 1/4 mile south of the Duck Lake and M-59 intersection (South of the Rite-Aid store).

The event kicks off at 10 AM with the arrival of the Easter Bunny to visit with the children. Rumor has it the Bunny will arrive in a brand new Mustang, courtesy of one of the event sponsors - Hinds Park Ford. There will be goody bags for the first 400 children at the event and face painting, in addition to pictures with the Bunny.

The actual hunt begins at 11:00 AM with the 2-4 year olds allowed to take the field. Then at 11:10 AM the 5 - 7 year olds will be turned loose on their own field. Finally, at 11:20 the 8 - 10 year olds will be given a field of eggs to hunt on. The three groups are placed on three different baseball field at the park to allow each groups to only compete with others of the same age.

The event is hosted by the Charter Township of Highland and the Huron Valley Chamber of Commerce. This years sponsors are Genesys Credit Union and Hinds Park Ford. Many local chamber members contributed items for the goodie bags.

So, bundle up the kids and come on out to visit with the Bunny and let your kids have the thrill of the hunt for Easter eggs. It's all good fun!

Norm Werner

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March Madness in Real Estate

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 05:37:21 -0700

In Michigan, March Madness - the NCAA Basketball Tournament is a big thing. We have two relatively close teams in the Tourney - Michigan and Michigan State - and both are plying at a local venue - the Palace of Auburn Hills. It get a little crazy.

The real estate market is a little crazy right now, too. I listed a nice, move-in ready home last Sunday and we will be accepting an offer today, with multiple bids having come in. That seems to be the case with almost all sales locally lately, not just distressed sales. The market is so tight locally (under 2 months inventory according to our local MLS) that any good listing immediately attracts lots of showings and quite often immediate offers.

We have several agents who lived through the last Seller's Market, but that was before my time. I've been facing a Buyers Market in this area ever since I got into the business in 2001, so this is new to me. It is a real challenge because I doing both listings and represent buyers. On the listings side prices that I would have said were ridiculous just a couple of months ago are now the norm. It remains to be seem how many of these deals make it through the appraisal process without issues. On the buyer side the advice that I now have to give about pricing and dealing with a sense of urgency has also changed. Buyers who really want a house have to bid fast and high. Now more low-ball, junk bids to see what the seller will do. The sellers now will just tell you to take a hike. And well they should.

Our broker commented on this strange market at our annual awards banquet this week and advised everyone to "enjoy the ride" while we can. This too will change, likely in the sumer when more inventory comes on the market and things balance out a bit. For now, however, every good listing is a like a break away with a big slam-dunk at the end - exciting to watch.

Norm Werner

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I never thought this would happen to me…

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 04:13:46 -0700

I hear the phrase in ther title of this post more often these days as more and more people who have been just barely hanging on by their fingernails finally get out of denial and call me about a possible short sale. These are not people who did anything wrong. They did not borrow frivolously, nor live extravagantly beyond their means. They are just regular people whose circumstances have changed; some through the loss of a loved one, some through the loss of a long-time job.

Most of these people were so sure that this would never happen to them that they entered a period of denial when those circumstances changed; sure that things would somehow change back and everything would be OK again, somehow. That really never happens. So they used what savings they had and perhaps borrowed against what retirement savings they had built up and now they realize that they are in trouble. They’ve started getting nasty letters from their mortgage company or other creditors.

This situation is especially hard on the elderly, who were brought up in a society that still put value on personal responsibility and paying one’s debts. Just the thought of being in this situation is too embarrassing for them to discuss easily, even with friends and family, much less a complete stranger. And yet they must get it out in the open in order to do something about it.

I have a web site – www.mishortsales.com – that they often find or that I send them to read. I tried to create that site to allow someone in this circumstance to have the ability to read, in anonymity – about the options that they might have in this situation. It’s not a fancy site, as I state on the opening page; but, there’s nothing fancy about this situation that brings people to it. It is just a few pages of straightforward information that I hope will help people better understand the options and make better choices for a course of action. I get lots of call from that site from people far out of my coverage area, so I refer them out to agents with short-sale experience on other areas. If they’re in my area I try to help.

As is pointed out in the reading material at my web site, success with a short-sale is far from guaranteed. Many of the big banks are so inept at doing them that the foreclosure departments from the same bank often win the race to see who can take the house first. Bank that took bailout money from the government are also required to offer alternatives such as loan modifications, but many of the big banks have also figured out ways to get around those laws by selling off the servicing of those loans to smaller companies. The fat cats will always find a way to game the system.

So, while the real estate market is improving, short-sales and foreclosures still make up about 40% of all sales locally and I will continue to get those calls from people who never thought they would be in that position. I’ll help if I can.

Norm Werner

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Builder Index Report belies fragile housing recovery

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 12:38:32 -0700

Issues with credit and appraisals, as well as frustrations with the industry infrastructure causes Builder Confidence Index to slip, again -

WASHINGTON, March 18 – Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes paused for a third consecutive month in March, with a two-point reduction to 44 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.

“Following eight consecutive months of improvement, builder confidence leveled off in January and has since edged down several points,” noted NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. “Although many of our members are reporting increased demand for new homes in their markets, their enthusiasm is being tempered by frustrating bottlenecks in the supply chain for developed lots along with rising costs for building materials and labor. At the same time, problems with appraisals and credit availability remain considerable obstacles to completing deals.”

“In addition to tight credit and below-price appraisals, home building is beginning to suffer growth pains as the infrastructure that supports it tries to re-establish itself,” explained NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “During the Great Recession, the industry lost home building firms, building material production capacity, workers who retreated to other sectors and the pipeline of developed lots. The road to a housing recovery will be a bumpy one until these issues are addressed, but in the meantime, builders are much more optimistic today than they were at this time last year.”

This Builder Confidence Index report is just one indication of just how fragile our current “housing recovery” really is. Builders are facing issues of tight building supplies and manpower that were cause by suppliers pulling back or going out of business during the “Great Recession” and workers in the trades that support building looking elsewhere for work. In addition the banks continue to make things hard on builders as they are also doing with home buyers. Business credit is harder than ever to get, just like mortgages, even though the rates are relatively low.

The market is full of stories about houses going on the market for resale and selling within days; however, the untold stories are about the people who tried to bid on the same place and weren’t successful. There is increasing frustration in the market due to the tight inventory and the propensity of sellers to go for cash offers at the lower end, rather than wait to see if buyers who need a mortgage can get one. Even in the “normal” market of move-up buyers, the challenges that underwriters are throwing into the process can be very frustrating. The “it’s not worth the hassle” factor is definitely rising.

This will all work itself out eventually; but, in the meantime, an extra effort on the part of Realtors® to educate and prepare would-be buyers for the travails ahead is required. While executing a “normal” buy isn’t quite as trying to do as is a short-sale buy, they aren’t as far apart as they used to be. Patience and perseverance are still the by-words of this recovery.

Norm Werner

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It’s all in the numbers…

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 17:38:19 -0700

I hear that phrase, "it's all in the numbers", often when agents are discussing real estate. It’s all in the numbers – you need so many suspects to get so many prospects in order to get so many clients, so that you can get so many listings or buyers, so that you can close enough deals to make so much money. Numbers, numbers, numbers.

While I understand the mathematical logic of that argument, it has always gritted a bit on me; because I believe that it’s really “all in the people.” I’m just not comfortable with a philosophy that basically says if you get in front of enough people (no matter what your approach and people skills are) that a certain percentage will go with you and then a certain percentage of those client opportunities will turn into sales that you’ll make money off of. That ends up just looking at the people involved as numbers. I also believe it denigrates the role and people skills of the real estate practitioner by basically saying that any idiot who finds a way to get enough chances will somehow win.

Sure, I believe that you have to give yourself enough chances. You have to, through efforts of your own, get the opportunities to demonstrate enough people skills to be chosen to represent the owners and their property or the buyers. I also believe that if you limit yourself to some canned, “it’s all in the numbers” approach to what you do, that when you get those opportunities, you will, in fact, end up getting whatever small percentage of deals that fall out of that kind of thinking. Let’s be honest, many buyers and sellers end up choosing their Realtor for really stupid reasons. Many also end up regretting those choices.

So, if it’s not all in the numbers; what is the secret to success? I believe the answer has two components and the main one is how you define success. Those who define success only by more numbers – how much they earn from the sales – will likely never even consider the second component – how happy does the final outcome make the client and you? The funny thing is that the agents who focus more on that second component of success most often end up in the long run doing better on the first component. They end up with a constant stream of referral business that is built upon the foundation of making earlier clients happy and which brings in a constant revenue stream. Those who don’t focus upon that people aspect are constantly trying to keep that big, funnel-shaped new-prospect hopper full.

So is it all really a numbers game? No, it is and always will be a people game and the more you focus on that aspect – making your clients happy with the process and the product – the more you will be successful. After a while you won’t have to worry about the numbers, because the numbers will come to you. And the best part is that you will also feel good about what you do and how you do it. Now that’s my definition of real success – doing something that you like and enjoy and making a living off of doing it.

Norm Werner

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YOU have to make it happen...

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Tue, 12 Mar 2013 05:45:20 -0700

The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstances they want and if they can't find them, make them. – George Bernard Shaw

I have a whole raft of sayings by Shaw that I keep on hand for inspiration and reflection. This saying is one of Shaw’s inspirational sayings. Basically it admonishes us to take action to create the success (circumstances) that we desire. It is way too easy to just look around and not immediately see the circumstances that we desire and resign ourselves to living with what we do see. The harder decision is to take action to create what we do not see.

A key ingredient to achieving success would seem to be unwavering optimism. It is hard enough to keep plugging away in the face of adversity, much less trying to do so with an attitude of pessimism. I like another saying, this one by Paul Harvey to cover that topic - “I’ve never seen a monument erected to a pessimist.” That applies whether or not what you are trying to do is deserving of a monument.

I think another; more subtle message in the Shaw saying above is that you must be looking for that success (circumstances). This gets back to the message that forms the base of most self-help advice – you must visualize what you want before you can start to accomplish it. The antithesis of success is not really failure, it is apathy. Out of failures one can learn and move on; however, apathy tends to lock us in place.

So get up today and look around. If what you see is not what you want your life to be, visualize what you want, where you want to be, what you want to be doing and get started towards those goals. It won’t just happen; you’ve got to make it happen.

Norm Werner

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Local real estate stats and market report

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 05:39:11 -0700

I had posted the final numbers for February before leaving on vacation and now have posted the real estate sales in my market areas for the first 10 days of March. Continuing the trend that has been evident since the beginning of the year, the total number of sales in February and the first part of March are down this year, when compared to last. That's mainly due to the lack of inventory in the market, but also aligning with the national trend of sales being off a bit.

Locally, Average and Median sale prices continue to trend up in my markets, as does the recovery of the Cost per Square Foot stat. The average for sale value vs. SEV continues to run between 2.4 - 2.6 times SEV in non-distressed sales, which continues to show that the assessors have overshot on the downside and the market has reversed and is rising faster than assessed values. Lower than sale price appraisals continue to top the list of concerns of local Realtors.

The recovery locally has been uneven, with 3-4 of the 9 markets that I track doing very well and 2-3 lagging behind. Those laggards also still have the highest foreclosure and short sale rates. New builds continue strong in Lyon Township and have come back in Milford, too. New build costs per Sq Ft are now running between $115 - 135/Sq Ft, depending upon the quality of the builds. You can see all of the stats for March and 2013 Y-T-D by going to my web site www.movetomilford.com and clicking on the choice - What have homes in this area sold for?

The tight market has also made it more difficult for Realtors and appraisers to find "Comps" to use for Comparative Market Analyses (CMA's) or appraisals. That has also affected Broker Price Opinions (BPO's) that are used by banks to evaluate short sale and foreclosure offers. I've had a tough time doing CMA's lately and have had to expand out further in distance and time than I would normally like in order to fine any similar home sales to use.

What this all means for buyers and sellers?

Well, it's a great time to be a seller - the tight inventory and rising prices have resulted in an environment where you will get the most for your house that the current market will bear, without having a lot of competition. You still need to keep your house in good condition. The market has shifted a bit towards favoring the move-in-ready houses, rather than the fixer-uppers. So if you're getting ready to put your house on the market, work yor way down that to-do list of deferred maintenance items that you've been meaning to get to for some time.

For buyers it's a frustrating market - there is less to choose from and, with more buyers chasing the reduced inventory, it is not unusual to see bidding wars for good houses. In addition, buyers are finding it tougher to get the mortgage that they had supposedly "pre-qualified" for once they have and accepted offer. Stricter underwriting policies mean that buyers need to get the best advice that they can find from their mortgage agent about what to do and not to do during the process. Even the most innocent misstep can put something on your credit report that the underwriters will see and use to disqualify you for that mortgage. If you're a first time buyer or have not owned a home for at least three years, remember that MSHDA is still offering grants of up to $3,000 for non-military and up to $5,000 for military buyers. That money can be used to cover some of your closing costs and does not have to be repaid.

Norm Werner

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Women's Enrichment Day

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 12:08:25 -0800

Tomorrow, March 9, is the date for the 10th annual Women's Enrichment Day at the White Lake Middle School at 1450 Bogie Lake Rd in White Lake. This event is organized by the Highland - White Lake Business Association and features workshops, shopping and lots of fun for area women. It's a day of no chores, no cooking and no kids to watch; a chance to learn about a number of interesting topics for women in the workshops and a chance to shop at the tables of over 40 vendors who will be in attendance. Lunch will be available for purchase and there will be door prize drawings throughout the day.

Workshops will range from how to download books from your library onto your Kindle, iPad or Nook, to learning how to knit to tips for improving your personal energy level. Other workshops will focus upon helpful tips like how to make small drywall repairs and how to make a felt Easter basket for your little egg hunter. There will be beauty tips and financial planning tips and lots of wellness tips. The admission is $5, which goes to the Huron Valley Educational Foundation. The event starts at 8 am and runs until1:30 pm. The first 200 women through the doors will receive a gift bag and an opportunity to have a continental breakfast.

Obviously the content of the workshops is enriching, but just getting together with other women to network, shop. learn and have fun is enriching in and of itself. Give yourself a break Saturday morning and join your sisters at Women's Enrichment Day.

Norm Werner

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Just be you, that's all you must do...

Norm Werner (Real Estate One) — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 04:18:25 -0800

“Today you are you, that is truer than true. There is no one alive who is youer than you.” (Dr. Seuss) from a recent post by Jack in the Jack’s Winning Words blog.

I like today’s saying because it serves to reinforce that people should just try to be themself. Too many people seem to be trying to be someone or something that they are not. That is certainly true in how we market ourselves sometimes. There are all sorts of designations and certifications that one can obtain by paying a few bucks and sitting through a few hours of classes. Does that make you an “expert”? No. Does stating on your card that you are a “Certified Whatever Specialist” make you someone that you really aren’t? No. Only time and experience will truly give you the expertise to make those claims.

I think the gist of how to apply the lesson of Dr. Seuss’ saying is to focus more on understanding the you that he says nobody is youer than and finding the things in that that allow you to offer better services, unique services or at least services that clients will appreciate. That really takes more soul searching that just trying to be someone else. What is it, after all, that attracts people to you – your spouse, your friends and others? What traits or qualities do they see and admire in your that make you a person that they feel comfortable being around? Use those things to advertise yourself and let people know what they can expect with your, not what you’re trying to fake for them.

So maybe, if we take a little liberty with Dr.Seuss’s saying it becomes; “Today you are you, so do what you do. There’s no one alive who can be more youer than you. And if to yourself you are truer than true, there is no limit to the things you can do.”

Norm Werner

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