At first glance it appears the unit sale decline has slowed significantly with '09 posting unit sales only slightly behind the same 7 months of last year at 7.6% or 54 homes. However, that is deceiving when you look at the same sales segmented by price. Notice in the 2nd table (sales by price) that a full third of the '09 YTD sales are in the under $100K range. All years previous to '08 had the under $100K unit sales representing slightly over 10% of the total. The reason for the tripling of this segment of the market is investor purchases of lower priced foreclosures for rental and/or flipping. Once you remove the dominant segment of the price spectrum then you see a truer picture of market with unit sales continuing their downward trend.
What's the short term future hold for Coweta home sales? More of the same for the foreseeable future probably continuing to late 2010 and possibly 2011. Much further than that and it is impossible to predict since all of our crystal balls start getting foggy looking past 12 months.
Note also that after the $250K range the months supply (the real litmus test for market conditions) begins doubling and tripling representing a softer mkt the further up the price range ladder you go. Keep in mind that is not a reflection of the times since those stats existed in the red hot years with little change today. High-end in Coweta has always had an extreme softness because the county is basically a blue-collar county with historical average home prices below $200K (and falling).
Sales by Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Total
Gain
% Gain
2005
90
97
138
134
154
197
175
169
138
122
128
126
1,668
181
12.2%
2006
83
115
155
152
149
210
170
179
141
134
131
131
1,750
82
4.9%
2007
104
125
152
137
191
167
175
150
119
117
92
82
1,612
- 138
- 7.9%
2008
61
87
97
93
129
106
134
117
91
87
67
95
1,164
- 448
- 27.8%
2009
58
86
88
94
104
120
103
*
653
- 54
- 7.6%
1% Diff 06 v 09
- 30.1%
- 25.2%
- 43.2%
- 38.2%
- 30.2%
- 42.9%
- 39.4%
- 36.8%
1 2009 % decrease compared to 2006, Coweta's all time high
* 121 homes Under Contract scheduled to close in Aug 2009
Coweta Existing Home Sales by Month Sales by Price
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A little good news in Dec for Coweta new homes with unit sales up 46% over Nov. However, both months were far below what is needed for a healthy new home mkt. For the year, sales were down a whopping 40.2% with little light at the end of the tunnel. The good news is inventory continues to reduce, currently at 468 homes standing, the lowest its been in decades. As inventories continue to reduce due to few new specs being built, months supply will have a parallel reduction. As that number approaches 6 months we'll have complete health restored back to a battered new home mkt. However, we're currently at 9.3 so we've got a ways to go.
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Total
Gain
% Gain
2005
64
85
99
96
103
117
109
108
102
79
83
98
1,143
37
3.3%
2006
82
104
128
102
105
148
93
122
101
90
85
91
1,251
108
9.4%
2007
67
80
103
82
103
103
107
103
74
53
74
56
1,005
- 246
- 19.7%
2008
45
48
67
57
60
68
59
49
55
34
24
35
601
- 404
- 40.2%
% Diff 07 v 08
- 32.8%
- 40.0%
- 35.0%
- 30.5%
- 41.7%
- 34.0%
- 44.9%
- 52.4%
- 25.7%
- 35.8%
- 67.6%
- 37.5%
- 40.2%
* 27 new homes Under Contract scheduled to close in Jan 2009
Below is Dec sales by price. Over $350K hit a brick wall which was responsible for avg sale prices to fall almost 20%.
Below is the SG Mkt Watch. Due to the subd getting close to being built out, the year posted unit sales down 45.1%. Ten of the eleven homes sold in Dec were resales. Of the 157 homes sold for the year, 103 were resales or 65.6% of the total. Per MLS there are only 47 new homes remaining.
Below find the Fayette Mkt Watch Report (resales only) posted thru the end of 2008.
Some notable stats:
Unit sales decreased almost 30% (approx the same a Coweta) Oct, Nov & Dec were the worse 3 months in the past 10 years Compared to the all time high of 1,704 resales sold in '05, '08 has been reduced by 44.5% New home sales fell to an all time low of 192 homes or 16.9% of the total of 1,137 Avg selling price of a SFR in '08 - $289,267 Months supply of current inventory of 1,345 homes for sale - 13.6 months Compared to the all time high of 478 in '05, new home sales has been reduced by 60% in '08 88 real estate firms reside in Fayette employing 890 agents (as of today) 21 real estate firm closed in '08 - 15 new ones opened 198 agents left the business in '08 (17.9%), down from 1,109 on Jan 1, '08 Ratio of 890 Fayette agents to all Fayette homes sold in '08 - 1 : 1.3 A ridiculous ratio by any measure. What that means is, on avg, each of the current 890 Fayette agents sold 1.3 homes in '08. Percent of listings expired to listings sold - 56% Total dollar volume of all sales in '08 - $330,667,236 which paid out approx $9,093,350 in commissions
Due to new home sales winding down in SG, the unit decrease this yr is over 46%. Compounded with last year's 22% loss, sales are down almost 70% from the '06 high water mark. April saw only 4 new and 8 resales sold for a total of 12 sales with a May 1 inventory of 200 homes for sale representing a 10 month supply. There's been a slight drop in avg prices this year of 2.4%. With only a handful of new homes selling each month which goes to support several new home sales people is the primary reason the Newnan Home Source is imploding on itself with agents leaving in droves. To view the full SG Mkt Watch Report, go to: http://SummerGrove.BushRealEstateGroup.com
With both the resale and the new home mkt experiencing almost identical % decreases this year, the resale mkt wasn't much better last month than the new home mkt with unit sales down 36%. Based on MLS, May will have a similar % decrease. For most of us in general brokerage, our efforts must be redoubled if we are to generate income close to last year. It's a tough mkt out there. The only reasonable reaction is to increase your prospecting efforts and push harder for price reductions from your sellers. Homes are still selling but with this kind of mkt it's more competitive than I've ever seen it. Sale price to list price ratios have decreased approx 1% from last year to 96% this year.
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