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Half-Point Fed Cut is Agressive - 10/29/08 01:35 PM
WASHINGTON - Bowing to growing concerns about a deep recession and the remarkable declines on Wall Street, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point on Wednesday, tapping its most visible policy tool to free up more money for banks and businesses. The move brings the Federal funds rate to 1 percent. While Fed policy makers now have less room to maneuver on interest rates if the economy deteriorates further, investors had been hoping for the relatively aggressive cut as a sign of vigilance among American central bankers seeking to restore the free flow of credit. (0 comments)
Housing Forecast Across the U.S. - 10/29/08 12:02 PM
Although all of the economists agreed that we are in a recession-despite lack of official government confirmation-and have been for many months, several characterized the current financial turmoil as an overreaction, given the country's narrowing trade gap and strengthening dollar. "I'm hopeful that the markets will come to their senses soon," said Michael Moran, chief economist for Daiwa Securities America. But even if the stock market bounces back, don't expect housing to rally right away. The forecasters pointed out numerous factors that are likely to drag out housing's convalescence: Unemployment is currently at 6.1%, compared with 4.4% last year, and it (1 comments)
$540 billion to support money-market mutual funds - 10/29/08 11:06 AM
America's Federal Reserve took further measures to boost liquidity by unveiling a plan to provide up to $540 billion to support money-market mutual funds. The funds, which are usually low-risk investments in short-term debt, have been troubled since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which caused Reserve Primary to lose money for its investors, the first time such a fund had done so for 14 years. Around $500 billion has since been withdrawn from the market, which invests in commercial paper, certificates of deposit and other financial instruments. The Fed's facility creates five "special-purpose vehicles" that will buy instruments held by the (2 comments)
Bargain Hunters are Reducing Real Estate Inventories - 10/27/08 10:58 PM
Lower home prices are luring some buyers back into the U.S. housing market, but foreclosures and a weakening economy are likely to keep downward pressure on prices for at least another year, economists say. A quarterly Wall Street Journal survey of housing data in 28 major metro areas shows that the glut of unsold homes listed for sale is shrinking in most of them. In many cases, sales have been stimulated by investors who are grabbing what they see as bargains on homes that can be turned into rentals. Metro areas with the biggest drops in for-sale signs include Sacramento and (2 comments)
The International Monetary Fund was created in 1944 , with a goal to stabilize exchange rates and supervise the reconstruction of the world's international payment system. Countries contributed to a pool which could be borrowed from, on a temporary basis, by countries with payment imbalances. (Condon, 2007) The IMF describes itself as "an organization of 185 countries (Montenegro being the 185th, as of January 18, 2007), working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty". With the exception of North Korea, Cuba, Andorra, Monaco, Liechtenstein, Tuvalu, (2 comments)
World Bank Could Double Lending - 10/26/08 04:31 AM
The World Bank has over $40 billion in capital and stands ready to double lending for developing countries if needed. Last year, the Bank lent $13.5 billion from that fund. "I could imagine that will go up considerably this year," Zoellick said. In addition, nations pledged a record $41.7 billion last year to the Bank's fund for the 78 poorest countries, IDA. One of the Bank's private sector arms, International Finance Corporation, is exploring the possibility of a fund to help recapitalize banks in developing countries. IFC said it might contribute around $1 billion and seek to raise another $2 billion (0 comments)
Emergency Financing Mechanism "We are actively engaged at this critical time with several governments around the world, both to provide technical economic advice and financing, if necessary. We are ready to act very quickly, with streamlined conditions attached," says Strauss-Kahn. Strauss-Kahn said in an October 22 statement that an IMF mission would soon begin discussions with Pakistan's authorities on a program aimed at strengthening economic stability and enhancing confidence in the financial system. The amount of Fund financing under a Stand-By Arrangement had yet to be determined. Financing could be made within framework of the Fund's Emergency Financing Mechanism, Strauss-Kahn (0 comments)
So Where Exactly are We Now with the FED's Financial Recovery Attempts? - 10/23/08 09:02 PM
United States authorities have employed three principal policy instruments since the outbreak of global financial turmoil last year: 1) fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate the real economy; 2) temporary or permanent purchases of assets to liquefy financial markets; 3) direct financial support to address the solvency problems of individual institutions judged to be too complex to fail. Each instrument influences the three principal targets: economic recession, market illiquidity, and institutional insolvency. The newly enacted Troubled Asset Recovery Program (TARP), the principal feature of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act signed into law last week, has not dispelled doubts about whether that (2 comments)
Pole Shows No Panicking Yet - 10/23/08 08:55 PM
With a momentous election approaching, the American public has been buffeted by nerve-wracking volatility in the markets, blame mongering in the media, and debates among experts over the prospects of a financial meltdown. Surprisingly, however, Americans appear to be taking the crisis in stride. According to a new poll from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, most Americans believe we are in a recession, but they are not panicking and they expect it to be over next year, partly because they retain confidence in the government's ability to fix the situation. Their attitudes may give leaders and (0 comments)
Margaret Atwood: NY Times - 10/22/08 04:38 AM
But we're deluding ourselves if we assume that we can recover from the crisis of 2008 so quickly and easily simply by watching the Dow creep upward. The wounds go deeper than that. To heal them, we must repair the broken moral balance that let this chaos loose. Debt - who owes what to whom, or to what, and how that debt gets paid - is a subject much larger than money. It has to do with our basic sense of fairness, a sense that is embedded in all of our exchanges with our fellow human beings. But at some point (0 comments)
Behind the Scenes: Why Many Financial Institutions Continue to Fail - 10/22/08 04:17 AM
You'll be hearing much more about "Credit-default Swaps" This is is a complicated name for a simple concept. It is a legal contract in which an investor who buys, say, $10 million worth of bonds could pay from tens of thousands of dollars to more than a million dollars for the insurance, depending on how credit analysts view the safety of the mortgages underlying the security. The insurance contracts enabled banks and other investors to buy securities and hold them as if they were top-grade assets, because even if the security defaulted, the credit-default swap would kick in and make the investor (1 comments)
Stagflation occurs when the economy isn't growing but prices are, which is not a good situation for a country to be in. This happened to a great extent during the 1970s, when world oil prices rose dramatically, fueling sharp inflation in developed countries. For these countries, including the U.S., stagnation increased the inflationary effects.
A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit. Deflation can be caused also by a decrease in government, personal or investment spending. The opposite of inflation, deflation has the side effect of increased unemployment since there is a lower level of demand in the economy, which can lead to an economic depression.Declining prices, if they persist, generally create a vicious spiral of negatives such as falling profits, closing factories, shrinking employment and incomes, and increasing defaults on loans by companies and individuals. To counter deflation, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) can use monetary policy to increase the money supply and (8 comments)
The chart above tracks the annual mean average sale price of fee-simple condominiums in Princeville and Poipu. Although similar in statistical performance, the overall running average appreciation trend line for Poipu edges out Princeville by approximately 3% overall (Poipu: 18% vs. Princeville: 15%). All things considered, Kauai condominium appreciation historically has done well against most other investment vehicles while generating income and offering significant tax deductions and personal use benefits.
NAR Plan offers Congress a four-point legislative plan - 10/19/08 06:46 AM
The National Association of Realtors will offer a four-point legislative plan to reinvigorate the housing market. NAR believes the plan will give a boost to the economy and help to calm jittery potential homebuyers. NAR recommends Congress pass new housing stimulus legislation that includes the following priorities: 1. Remove the requirement in the current law that first-time homebuyers repay the $7,500 tax credit, and expand the tax credit to apply not only to first-time buyers but also to all buyers of a primary residence. 2. Revise the FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 2008 stimulus loan limit increases to make them (2 comments)
As an economic system, Capitalism depends on the distribution of goods and services to generate private capital and profit. Therefore, the concept of profit regulates financial life and social structure. The opposite of capitalism is communism. In communism and socialism the economy is planned by the government and therefore it becomes the ONLY investor. Then, distribution of goods depends on principles of equality or "need." The Communist credo is "From each according to his ability and to each according to his need." Capitalism is based on free market, free trade and free initiative and Government's control is minimal. Rightfully (4 comments)
As governments of the industrialized world struggle with the global credit crisis, they may be relearning an old lesson: there is more strength in standing together than in struggling alone The international nature of capital flows and stock markets has forced unprecedented cooperation between nations on interest rate cuts, support for banks and other measures meant to restore investor confidence. Philosophical and political differences that seemed insurmountable only weeks ago have melted away as leaders search for a workable way to prevent their economies from melting down. It's true that financial systems are among the most integrated parts of the modern world. (1 comments)
BIG FED MONEY PLAN UNFOLDS - 10/15/08 01:04 PM
The plan is undoubtedly bold: it marks perhaps the largest foray by the American government into ownership of private enterprise since the second world war. But it would have looked much bolder a month ago. As it is, America has only caught up to where Germany, France and especially Britain (in that case, last week) had already reached. To a great extent, Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary and Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, are making up for what were, in retrospect, miscalculations in their earlier efforts. The early evidence is reassuring. The historic stockmarket rally on Monday, though it petered (0 comments)
After a week in which the financial system almost ground to a halt, governments of the industrialised world seem at last to have found the right tools to get credit markets moving again. At the weekend and early on Monday October 13th officials in Europe, America and Asia announced unprecedented and comprehensive plans to prop up failing banks, guarantee their loans and flood the world with cash by providing unlimited dollar funds through central banks. At first blush-and in contrast to previous failures after half-hearted efforts-the new plans seem to be working. Stockmarkets rose around the world on Monday, although (1 comments)
This is due to a big rise in Asian Stocks over Sunday (here). U.S. Futures advanced as Governments are backing banks. Asian stocks rose, rebounding from the worst week since at least 1987, after Australia guaranteed bank deposits and European leaders agreed to support lenders in a global effort to end the credit crisis. U.S. index futures gained. National Australia Bank Ltd., the country's largest, surged 7.9 percent and Woori Finance Holdings Co. jumped 5.8 percent after Australian funding costs and Asia-Pacific bond risk eased. Leaders of the 15 countries using the euro pledged over the weekend to guarantee bank borrowing. (4 comments)
The chart above indicates the average monthly percentage relationship of Kauai County's Assessed Valuation to the actual recorded sales prices. Up to the end of 2003, the average differential was around minus 20%. That means that sales prices averaged 20% higher than the county assessed value of the property at time of closing. Although the running average for the first 3 quarters of 2008 was minus 1.85%, look at the dramatic progressive upturn spike beginning in June. Watch for this figure to continue its increase substantially over the next 60 days due to world economic crisis conditions.
How do we answer the question: "What is my property worth now?" Global financial events over the last ten days have changed faster than "greased lightening" making any pronouncement on current values of Kauai Real Estate even more difficult to project. As you know, many would-be sellers over the last year have simply stood "pat" awaiting the down-turn of sales to cycle through with hopes of a return to earlier price points. The question, of course, was always how long this would take. With the new wave of changes in the global economy last week, any notion of a return (1 comments)
Main Entry: ca·pit·u·la·tion Pronunciation: \kə-ˌpi-chə-ˈlā-shən\ Function: noun 1: a set of terms or articles constituting an agreement between governments2 a: the act of surrendering or yielding b: the terms of surrender This collective stupor by investors may now be the last stage before they finally let go -- this is the phase of market psychology that veteran traders call "capitulation." Stupor prevents rash action, keeping many long-term investors from bailing out near the bottom. But, when it breaks and many investors finally do let go, the market can rise again. No one really knows when capitulation starts to sets (1 comments)
Wise agents will see the current financial events as being rich with opportunity. Those agents will make more money in 2008 because they saw the opportunity and worked instead of making excuses. In their world, work developed a brand new meaning of action, quality, time planning, results and authenticity. They avoided commentaries on why things are bad. They sought out inovative solutions for their clients and customers and reaped the rewards. This is new territory with a brand new set of opportunities. Great prices some of which rolled back to 2003 levels. As the stock traders say, "Buy on Weakness."
The Administration Is now considering cash "Injections" into many banks as a purchase of "Equity Stakes" after failing to unlock frozen credit markets. The Treasury Department would take ownership "stakes" in many United States banks to try to restore confidence in the financial system. This is not considered a take-over however. If the bank makes a profit, the tax-payers will benefit as a result. Also, any bank in which the Treasury holds a stake would be barred from paying its chief executive a "golden parachute" package.
Aloha - - - As the global financial turmoil continues, our knowledge and understanding of the inner-workings of mortgage lending business is increasing. The ubiquitous LIBOR rate is now quite significant. Here's why . . . The Federal Reserve's half-point emergency rate cut may not have any affect on mortgage holders. Changes in the federal funds rate do not directly influence the direction of mortgage rates. However, Fed rate cuts may have more indirect impacts on some adjustable-rate mortgages. (ARMs) The Interest Rate on many ARMs is closely associated with the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). When the Fed cuts (0 comments)
The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday announced the creation of the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), a facility that will complement the Federal Reserve's existing credit facilities to help provide liquidity to term funding markets. The CPFF will provide a liquidity backstop to U.S. issuers of commercial paper through a special purpose vehicle (SPV) that will purchase three-month unsecured and asset-backed commercial paper directly from eligible issuers. The Federal Reserve will provide financing to the SPV under the CPFF and will be secured by all of the assets of the SPV and, in the case of commercial paper that is (0 comments)
Fed Will Lend Directly to Corporations - 10/07/08 11:16 PM
The Federal Reserve announced today that it will bypass ailing banks and lend money directly to American corporations. This is the first time this has occurred since the Great Depression. Also, the Fed hinted strongly at further interest-rate cuts. This is a combinantion of unconventional and conventional remedies for an economy whose prognosis is deteriorating rapidly. The historic and potentially risky move of lending to nonfinancial corporations is the latest extraordinary step taken by the Fed over the past month. Wall Street Journal believes this will carry the government deeper into the role of propping up private markets. Investors remain unconvinced any (0 comments)
One thing that people often forget is that the stock market crash of 1929 did not turn into the Great Depression overnight. The unemployment rate was still only 8.7 percent in 1930. GDP lost 6.4 percent in 1931, but the bottom fell out only in 1932, when GDP plunged by 13 percent. So it took three years for the damage to the stock market to ravage the banking sector, and eventually for the air to come out of the real economy. In the meantime, government did far too little. The basic cause of the great crash of '29 was very (7 comments)
Fannie and Freddie: Finding Their Future - 10/07/08 02:35 AM
REMAX International President/CEO on Fannie and Freddie: Finding Their Future Dave's insights are accurate and worthy of review. His conclusion is that a reorganization of Fannie and Freddie will have a positive impact, but we shouldn't SO READILY facilitate government control of an industry vital to the economic well being of so many in our country.
I applaud recent government actions to restore confidence and stability in the housing industry by placing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into a conservatorship. Federal cash guarantees are part of the plan, which will also replace key executives at the two government sponsored enterprises (GSE's). (0 comments)
Symbols of the Triateralist Commission The World Bank's new concept of "MULTILATERALISM" triggers an obvious association with the Tri-Lateralist Commission. A somewhat shadowy group around which rumors of world domination circle. What are your beliefs and known facts about this group as well as the associated Bilderburg Group? What current political figures are directly connected with these groups? For further reference, these sites are noted as being worthy of investigation: 1. American Institute for Economic Research 2. Wikipedia Reference Pages 3. Bilderburg Group
To meet advances in world interconnectivity, World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoelick said that multilateralism must be updated for the 21st century. "Our's must be a globalization where both the opportunities and the responsibilities are more widely shared...multilateralism, at its best, is a means for solving problems among countries, with the group at the table willing and able to take constructive action together." Zoelick outlined requirements for the new multilateralism, explaining that it must have a shared goal of improving global political economy and should mimic the flexible nature of national economies. According to Zoelick, a new, more cooperative, (0 comments)
Whenever humans are beset by emergent events and seemingly perilous circumstances, opinions and explanations begin to flow like so much nervous chatter. Nevertheless, since I am both human and amidst such circumstances, I offer the following: As we now stand somewhat shell-shocked over the events of the last 30 days, together with the uncertain political future of this country, it's natural to now contemplate, "What now? . . . and what next?" . . . questions which now flash on the front cover of the latest edition of the Economist Magazine. (www.economist.com). These questions for us as Realtors, are quite (2 comments)
Homes For Sale at Princeville, Kauai's Queen Emma's Bluffs - 10/04/08 06:42 PM
This week, there have been some price changes (down) and a new listing at 2998 Aloalii Drive to add to "Homes For Sale at Princeville, Kauai's Queen Emma's Bluffs." These homes possess some of the most commanding views of the three most prime Princeville vistas: Ocean (nearly every home has some ocean view), Golf Course (every home site fronts the golf course), and Mountain: (Extremely dramatic views of Hii Manu, Namolokama and Mamalahoa.)
REMAX KAUAI Property Search (1 comments)
CEO Kelly Backs Economic Rescue Plan in TV Interview - 10/03/08 04:10 AM
CEO Kelly Backs Economic Rescue Plan in TV Interview "The economy will not recover unless the housing market recovers first," RE/MAX International CEO Margaret Kelly said on CNBC's "The Call" Oct. 1. In a 5-minute appearance on the national broadcast, Kelly (CRB) said the $700 billion package approved by the U.S. Senate later that day "is a rescue plan for the economy" whose "whole point is to keep people in their homes and to build confidence back in the market." Watch the entire video interview.
Third Quarter Real Estate Sales total units for Kauai this year of 464 is the lowest number over the last ten years. Such numbers together with Standard "Supply and Demand" principals will hopefully see more agressive price reductions in order to stimulate sales. We should see a significant bounce by the end of the fourth quarter following the election and implementation of the governments economic rescue plan.
REMAX KAUAI Property Search (1 comments)
New "Rescue Package" Is Much Larger That you Know !! - 10/02/08 10:53 AM
The House is scheduled to vote tomorrow on a revised version of the economic rescue plan. However, the new version includes $110 billion in tax breaks that were not included in the bill that was defeated on Monday. The biggest single piece in the new package is an extension of protections for millions of middle class families who would otherwise find themselves exposed to a greater "hit" under the alternative minimum tax. This alone accounts for about three quarters of the cost. (Approximately $78.8 billion in 2009). An additional $14 billion exists in a variety of tax break extensions that benefits (2 comments)
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