Buncombe County Residential Sales Year over Year by Month Comparison 

Single family homes includes, homes, condos, town homes, as well as manufactured homes on owned land.

Sales were about even, which is a good thing because that number was necessary to barely exceed the total number of sales in 2010 overall. The Days on Market before selling improved, but the selling price was headed in a downward trend.

2 things are showing improvement: the Average List Price and the Month End Inventory. The inventory reduction will be critical to stabalizing 2012 because even at 2385, that suggests we have more than 12 months of inventory right now if no other homes are added.

Copyright by Don Davies©

There is a relationship or a story told by looking at the number of Residential Sales and the Days on Market (DOM) before selling.

In a "healthy" real estate market, the DOM, in our area, would normally be between 80 and 120 days. If the DOM are increasing, as has been the case here lately, it indicates less demand and can result in a general or collective move to reduce prices.

If the number of home sales in a month are also reduced, then it is almost a given that prices must be reduced in order to regain the interest of buyers.

The trend in Asheville/Buncombe County for DOM has been an upward one, but has shown a slight decline in July, and sales have slowed slightly also. The trend in monthly Home Sales has been a downward one overall year-to-date. In fact, we barely increased sales over 2010 by year end.

This has resulted in more price reductions, which has been disappointing, generally, in this market.

We are at record highs for DOM of SOLD homes, about double the "normal".

September 2011

Copyright by Don Davies©

Economists and real estate analysts agree, for the most part that the "health" of a local real estate market can be best judged by the amount of inventory that is available for consumption in a certain period of time.

Usually, in a "healthy market", a 6 or 7 month supply of inventory or homes available for purchase is that magic number.

Last year, 2010, there were 2208 homes sold in the Asheville/Buncombe County market. As the chart indicates below, at the end of December, there were just under 2400 homes sitting in inventory.

That would indicate that we have about 1 year and 2 months of inventory to sell, therefore, we are not in the range of a "healthy" market yet. However, this is the lowest inventory in 4 years, so we are beginning to see a balance possibility.

It should be noted, as the chart indicates, the inventory had been reducing. That is mostly because speculators/builders/developers have drastically reduced their building of new homes without a buyer immediately standing ready to purchase. It should also be noted that the winter months always show a reduction in active listings and summer months show the peak.

Early spring begins to indicate to growth of additional inventory. A rapid growth would spell trouble.

The key to determining the health of the market comes in March, April and May, normally the heaviest saturation of new inventory coming on the market. Those months need to remain relatively calm and show restraint. But, regardless, we need to stay below 2500 for an indication of a more stable market.

DECEMBER 2011 Active Inventory

Copyright by Don Davies©

Copyright by Don Davies©

Buncombe County, NC - September 2011

Buncombe County includes the cities or areas of Asheville, Leicester, Weaverville, Black Mountain, Arden, Skyland, Candler, and Biltmore Forest.

2011 land sales have been mediocre, at best, and it is a signal that the developers, investors and builders are still not yet ready to commit their resources into land until the economy clears out more of the existing home inventories.

If land is NOT selling, then new homes, condos or townhomes are not soon to hit the market. Land sales have stalled here in Buncombe County, and as a result land prices are the best they have been in years (for the buyer's benefit).

290 parcels of vacant land (non-commercial) were Sold in 2010 in Buncombe County with an Average Sold Price of $89,948<. There was an increase in the number of sales over 2009 (259) but the selling price was down a fair amount from last year.

Now is a great time to buy because land values have adjusted in a downward trend. Of course, the risk of waiting to purchase is that once the Asheville market heats up, which it will, the prices on land will increase at a rapid pace because buyers wanting new homes will have a limited supply. Land is irreplaceable and limited and every parcel offers something unique. It rarely depreciates, unlike buildings sitting on the land.

A breakdown of the sales YTD SEPTEMBER 2011 looks like this:

All Vacant Land Sales YTD - 237 Sold with an average Sold Price of $103,339<

1 acre or under - 127 parcels have sold with an Average Sold Price of $66,233<.

1 to 2.99 acres - 71 parcels have sold with an Average Sold Price of $100,338<.

3 to 4.99 acres - 10 parcels have sold with an Average Sold Price of $214,765<>.

5 to 9.99 acres - 12 parcels have sold with an Average Sold Price of $106,075>.

10 to 20 acres - 9 parcels have sold with an Average Sold Price of $254,614<.

Over 20 acres - 7 parcel have sold with an Average Sold Price of $433,343<

There are currently 1985< parcels of any size vacant land on the market in the county with an Average Asking Price of $207,789<.

The Average Asking Price of the 2686< Residential Homes "for sale" in Buncombe County is $405,961<.

Key: < = Decrease > = Increase <> = Same

It is fairly obvious that the limited availability and high cost of vacant land has a great affect on the overall cost of homes in our area.

Disclosure: The data supplied in these reports/charts is researched and compiled by Don Davies, GRI from the Western North Carolina Mountains MLS and may not reflect all real estate activity in the market, i.e. FSBOs, etc.

(The above 3.06 acre lot next to new house in Leicester, NC can be purchased for $120,000. Will also trade up or down. Underground utilities/DSL/phone and is ready to build on. Broker/Owner)

Copyright by Don Davies©

If the number of units sold is not diminishing or reducing the inventory at a rate faster than new units are being placed on the market, then the end results is a saturation of active listings and ultimately, that brings about the need to reduce prices.

As the chart indicates below, the Sales line dropped below the Active Listings line, as the number of active listings has been on a steady, yet slow, decline or reduction, but in May and June, as is usual, a slight uptick in inventory occurred, which is expected in the spring and early summer. The Sales line needs to stay above the Active Listings line consistently to reduce the excess inventory.

In order to place a dent in the inventory that currently is trending, the sales must stay closer to the 225 sales per month level, which has not been the case on average.

September 2011

Copyright by Don Davies©

Average Selling Price of Residential Properties

A 6 Month Trend Report

Basically, the Average Selling Price of a single family home is determined by the same influences that effect all market items - Supply and Demand.

The Asheville and Buncombe County supply (active listings) has been higher than normal and the demand (buyers) has been lower than normal. That has a direct effect on the pricing of the properties available.

As the chart indicates below, our Average Selling Price fluctuated since April and is now bouncing around at the lowest levels in many years. Even though that is true, we are still selling at higher Average Selling Prices than any other part of the state.

Prices are approaching the levels of late 2004 and the year of 2005, which were before our banner years.

September 2011

Copyright by Don Davies©

In a "healthy" real estate market, the DOM, in our area, would normally be between 80 and 120 days. If the DOM are increasing, as has been the case here lately, it indicates less demand and can result in a general or collective move to reduce prices.

If the number of home sales in a month are also reduced, then it is almost a given that prices must be reduced in order to regain the interest of buyers.

The trend in Asheville/Buncombe County for DOM has been an upward one, but has shown a slight decline in July, and sales have slowed slightly also. The trend in monthly Home Sales has been a downward one overall year-to-date.

This has resulted in more price reductions, which has been disappointing, generally, in this market.

We are at record highs for DOM of SOLD homes, about double the "normal".

September 2011

Copyright by Don Davies©

Usually, in a "healthy market", a 6 or 7 month supply of inventory or homes available for purchase is that magic number.

Last year, 2010, there were 2208 homes sold in the Asheville/Buncombe County market. As the chart indicates below, at the end of September, there were a under 3000 homes sitting in inventory.

That would indicate that we have about 1 year and 4 months of inventory to sell, therefore, we are not in the range of a "healthy" market yet.

It should be noted, as the chart indicates, the inventory had been reducing. That is mostly because speculators/builders/developers have drastically reduced their building of new homes without a buyer immediately standing ready to purchase. It should also be noted that the winter months always show a reduction in active listings and summer months show the peak.

Early spring begins to indicate to growth of additional inventory. A rapid growth would have spelled trouble.

The key to begin to determine the health of the market came in March, April and May, normally the heaviest saturation of new inventory coming on the market. Those months were relatively calm and showed restraint, mostly because there are a very low number of "new" homes being built right now. But, we need to get below 2500 for an indication of a more stable market.

SEPTEMBER 2011 Active Inventory

Copyright by Don Davies©

Copyright by Don Davies©